Wed., 9th of April 08 till Friday 11th outbreak-thread

[Bunkertor]

[CrazyC83]

Looks like LOTS of rain for me...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looking at GFS soundings from 0Z run ( using PSU e-Wall to try to get soundings just ahead of the storms) Thursday afternoon, I'm finding near surface winds of 50 knots or higher, ahead of the thunderstorms. Both WRF and GFS show sub 990 mb lows Thursday afternoon. 50 knot winds will produce tree and powerline damage, even without thunderstorms.

Memphis and Paducah soundings showing 60 to 70 knot winds above the surface, likely to mix down as gusts in any storms. Instability is a little limited, but with forecast winds this strong, straight line winds seem likely. Tornadoes not out of the question either.

[RL3AO]

Right now, the MDT is for 45H hail. The tornado risk is at 10H.

[RL3AO]

End of day 2

AS DETAILS REGARDING EARLY DAY STORMS AND CONVECTIVE MODE BECOME
BETTER RESOLVED WITH TIME...AN UPGRADE TO A CATEGORICAL HIGH RISK IS
POSSIBLE IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 090724

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT WED APR 09 2008

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY/TENNESSEE VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES...

...OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. 00Z GFS
AND 00Z/PRIOR 12Z ECMWF ARE IN ADEQUATE AGREEMENT /NOTABLY SLOWER
THAN 00Z NAM AND 21Z SREF SOLUTIONS/...SUGGESTING THAT THE NEARLY
STACKED CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE GRADUALLY OCCLUDING COLD
FRONT...STRONG FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERE WILL REMAIN ATOP A
WARM/MOIST AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. ALL SEVERE MODES APPEAR
POSSIBLE INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND MULTICELLS /ESPECIALLY WITH LINEAR
FORCING ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT/...WITH DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE
HAIL AND SOME TORNADOES. SOMEWHAT HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL
LIKELY EXIST WITHIN THE CURRENT RISK AREA...HOWEVER LIMITED
PREDICTABILITY REGARDING UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT TIMING AND
LINGERING DAY 2 STORMS PRECLUDES SUCH A DELINEATION AT THIS TIME.

..GUYER.. 04/09/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1147Z (7:47AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[CrazyC83]

Tomorrow could be one of those nightmare days...they don't bust very often in that region...

[CrazyC83]

ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 091007
OKZ000-TXZ000-091800-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0507 AM CDT WED APR 09 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS

SURROUNDING THE HIGHEST RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS NORTH AND EAST INTO PARTS OF
KANSAS...SOUTHWEST MNISSIORI...ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA

A VERY STRONG HIGH-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM NOW OVER ARIZONA AND
NEVADA...WITH 120 MPH JET STREAM WINDS...WILL SWEEP EAST INTO FAR
WEST TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO EARLY THURSDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL FORM LATER TODAY OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO WILL MOVE EAST INTO NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY MORNING.

SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE ALREADY SPREADING VERY WARM AND
HUMID AIR ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THESE WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND BREADTH THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AS THE NEW
MEXICO LOW HEADS EASTWARD.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE...WITH FAST JET STREAM FLOW ALOFT...WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SUSTAINED ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS CALLED SUPERCELLS
FROM CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.

SCATTERED STORMS WITH HAIL MAY OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. MORE SIGNIFICANT
STORMS...HOWEVER...LIKELY WILL DEVELOP LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE RED VALLEY INTO
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND NORTH
TEXAS...THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES...HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WILL
CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS THREAT WILL ALSO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE OZARKS INTO A
LARGE PART OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS LATER THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..CORFIDI.. 04/09/2008

$$

PWO's are not usually issued when the moderate risk is for hail, so a 15% tornado area is probably going to get drawn in...

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 091246

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 AM CDT WED APR 09 2008

VALID 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL AND N TX INTO SRN
AND ERN OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
FROM THE TX BIG BEND INTO SRN KS...THE OZARK...AND THE LWR TN VLY...

...START OF A MAJOR TWO-DAY SVR WX OUTBREAK TO BEGIN LATER TODAY...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG AZ/NV TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY INTO A CLOSED LOW LATER THIS PERIOD
AS 130 KT NLY JET STREAK NOW OVER NRN CA CONTINUES SSEWD. THE LOW
SHOULD REACH SE CO BY 12Z THURSDAY AS ASSOCIATED 100 KT MID-LEVEL
JET STREAK REDEVELOPS ON SE SIDE OF SYSTEM OVER N TX/OK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...SFC MAP ATTM SHOWS A SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS
CONTINUING TO NOSE WSW ACROSS OK INTO PARTS OF WRN/NRN TX. THE COOL
AIR MASS WILL BE REINFORCED BY EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM ELEVATED
TSTMS THAT LIKELY WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
NEVERTHELESS...LEE CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD GET UNDERWAY LATE THIS AFTN
AND TONIGHT ALONG SW END OF THE STALLING FRONT OVER SW TX. THE LOW
SHOULD THEN ACCELERATE NNE TO NEAR OKC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS
POTENT VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPR SYSTEM RAPIDLY
ENHANCES UVV ACROSS REGION.

...TX/OK INTO PARTS OF SRN KS/AR/SW MO...
ELEVATED TSTMS NOW FORMING IN NW TX LIKELY WILL EXPAND IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY AS ENVIRONMENT ABOVE SHALLOW COOL
DOME FURTHER WARMS AND MOISTENS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON
AREA SOUNDINGS...COUPLED WITH QUALITY OF ELEVATED MOISTURE INFLOW
/850 MB DEWPOINTS AOA 12C/ AND 40+ KT SWLY CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT SUSTAINED ROTATING STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE ACTIVITY
MOVES/DEVELOPS NE INTO MUCH OF OK/SRN KS.

ALONG SRN FRINGE OF ABOVE STORMS...POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SFC-BASED STORMS AS SFC HEATING DESTABILIZES REGION
ALONG AND S OF SFC FRONT STALLING OVER N CNTRL TX. WITH SBCAPE
INCREASING TO ABOVE 2500 J/KG AND 40-50 KT DEEP WSWLY
SHEAR...ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR SCTD DISCRETE TO
SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. THESE COULD PRODUCE TORNADOES...IN
ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND...GIVEN RICH MOISTURE
INFLOW AND LIKELIHOOD FOR SLIGHTLY-BACKED NEAR-SFC FLOW. FARTHER
E...A FEW STRONG TO LOCALLY SVR STORMS MAY ALSO FORM E ALONG SAME
FRONT INTO SOMEWHAT LESS UNSTABLE/LESS STRONGLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
OVER AR AND THE LWR TN VLY.

LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...ARRIVAL OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPR VORT SHOULD SUPPORT A NEW ROUND OF
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT OVER W TX. SOME OF THESE STORMS LIKELY WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE RETREATING COOL DOME...ESPECIALLY IN
NW TX/FAR WRN OK. BUT THOSE NEAR AND S OF PATH OF DEVELOPING SFC
LOW WILL BE SFC-BASED...AND WILL HAVE ACCESS TO A VERY UNSTABLE AND
VERY STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT /SBCAPE TO 3000 J PER KG AND 50-60
KTS DEEP SWLY SHEAR/. THUS...TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND HIGH
WIND ARE LIKELY.

STRENGTH OF THE FORCING FOR ASCENT...PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
ASCENT...STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD...AND QUALITY OF MOISTURE INFLOW
ALL SUGGEST THAT THE STORMS WILL QUICKLY ORGANIZE INTO A
SQLN/POSSIBLE DERECHO. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO
POSE A THREAT FOR TORNADOES AS THE HIGH-WIND-PRODUCING CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM SWEEPS E/NE ALONG RETREATING SFC FRONT INTO NE TX...SRN/ERN
OK AND PERHAPS PARTS OF AR/SW MO THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.

..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 04/09/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1252Z (8:52AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[CrazyC83]

Both the tornado and wind threat went up into MDT levels. Maybe we'll see a HIGH risk today?

[6SpeedTA95]

15% hatched tornadic area for far northern texas but it looks like it may include the DFW metro plex.

[RL3AO]

I'd be very surprised, but I've been wrong before.

[CrazyC83]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
816 AM CDT WED APR 9 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN CARSON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS
SOUTHWESTERN GRAY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS

* UNTIL 900 AM CDT

* AT 812 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GROOM...OR ABOUT 14 MILES EAST OF CLAUDE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GROOM...
LEFORS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AT 8 0 6 3 3 5 1 1 2 1.

LAT...LON 3548 10107 3548 10074 3518 10099 3519 10119
TIME...MOT...LOC 1316Z 207DEG 26KT 3519 10110

$$

JORDAN

[Ed Mahmoud]

OK, if this is the new Texas to Indiana 3 day severe thread, well, good news, my friend the utah.edu met Department model page is working again.

I'm most concerned today about Texas, although tomorrow's outbreak will be at least as severe, cover a larger area, and possibly have damaging non-thunderstorm winds just due to an intense pressure gradient to a mid 980s mb low

[RL3AO]

This was posted on Tony Laubach's blog last night. I'm surprised no one saw it.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1000 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2008

DEVELOPING NEGATIVE-TILT TROF OUT W... WITH UPSTREAM 160-KT JET MAX DIGGING INTO ITS BACK SIDE... HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SET OFF A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WED-THU AS IT SWINGS FROM TX TOWARD THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY. DEPTH AND QUALITY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE CRUCIAL... ESPECIALLY AS FAR N AND NW AS OUR CWA WHERE THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF WORK TO BE DONE IN TERMS OF LL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. IF INSTABILITY BECOMES ADEQUATE...THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE SETUP SUGGESTS THAT THIS ONE COULD RIVAL SOME OF THE MORE NOTORIOUS APRIL OUTBREAKS OF THE LAST SEVERAL DECADES.

[CrazyC83]

This was posted on Tony Laubach's blog last night. I'm surprised no one saw it.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1000 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2008

DEVELOPING NEGATIVE-TILT TROF OUT W... WITH UPSTREAM 160-KT JET MAX DIGGING INTO ITS BACK SIDE... HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SET OFF A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WED-THU AS IT SWINGS FROM TX TOWARD THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY. DEPTH AND QUALITY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE CRUCIAL... ESPECIALLY AS FAR N AND NW AS OUR CWA WHERE THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF WORK TO BE DONE IN TERMS OF LL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. IF INSTABILITY BECOMES ADEQUATE...THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE SETUP SUGGESTS THAT THIS ONE COULD RIVAL SOME OF THE MORE NOTORIOUS APRIL OUTBREAKS OF THE LAST SEVERAL DECADES.

NWS Norman is thinking something like Super Outbreak II...if everything comes out right. The only thing that is holding back a massive, destructive and (potentially) deadly outbreak is instability and cloud cover.

[srainhoutx]

Time will certainly tell concerning any outbreak, but many have been burned this year with forecasts that busted big time. All the ingredients must be perfect to have a super outbreak like 1974. Just my two cents worth. Be safe all.

[CrazyC83]

This is an area (today's threat) where there have been many MDT and HIGH busts over the past couple years.

[6SpeedTA95]

NWS Norman is thinking something like Super Outbreak II...if everything comes out right. The only thing that is holding back a massive, destructive and (potentially) deadly outbreak is instability and cloud cover.

You got it dude, right now the low level moisture has been slower to return than originally anticipated. That could change quickly but at this point just north of Tulsa, things are overcast, cooler and dryer than originally antipated.

However, this could easily be an overnight event and any slowdown by the low pressure system would give the low level moisture time to return. Once the low and the jet get in place it could be a powerful enough system to spawn supercells regardless of low level moisture and instability in the atmosphere. However, without both of those the thread of large and/or long track tornadoes would be minimized.

The next 12 hours should be interesting to say the least.

[CrazyC83]

SEL7

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 177
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
935 AM CDT WED APR 9 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 935 AM UNTIL
400 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF
CLINTON OKLAHOMA TO 45 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF MINERAL WELLS
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 176...

DISCUSSION...VEERING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE RETURN
NWD WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY CONTRIBUTING TO
A THREAT FOR ELEVATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING NEWD ACROSS WRN
N TX AND INTO SW OK. HAIL...SOME LARGE...ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 21535.


...PETERS/HALES


SEL7

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 177
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
935 AM CDT WED APR 9 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 935 AM UNTIL
400 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF
CLINTON OKLAHOMA TO 45 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF MINERAL WELLS
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 176...

DISCUSSION...VEERING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE RETURN
NWD WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY CONTRIBUTING TO
A THREAT FOR ELEVATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING NEWD ACROSS WRN
N TX AND INTO SW OK. HAIL...SOME LARGE...ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 21535.


...PETERS/HALES


Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

WOUS64 KWNS 091432
WOU7

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 177
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
935 AM CDT WED APR 9 2008

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 177 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

OKC009-015-031-033-039-051-055-057-065-067-075-129-137-141-149-
092100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0177.080409T1435Z-080409T2100Z/

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BECKHAM CADDO COMANCHE
COTTON CUSTER GRADY
GREER HARMON JACKSON
JEFFERSON KIOWA ROGER MILLS
STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA


TXC009-023-077-151-155-197-207-237-253-275-337-363-367-417-429-
447-485-487-497-503-092100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0177.080409T1435Z-080409T2100Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY
FISHER FOARD HARDEMAN
HASKELL JACK JONES
KNOX MONTAGUE PALO PINTO
PARKER SHACKELFORD STEPHENS
THROCKMORTON WICHITA WILBARGER
WISE YOUNG


ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT...





Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

SAW7
WW 177 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 091435Z - 092100Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
30NE CSM/CLINTON OK/ - 45WSW MWL/MINERAL WELLS TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM E/W /61SW END - 55E ABI/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21535.

LAT...LON 35639766 32529766 32529990 35639998

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.


Watch 177 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.