Another week of severe weather in the southern plains?

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RL3AO
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#221 Postby RL3AO » Tue Apr 08, 2008 4:50 pm

I've been paying so much attention to the severe part of this storm, I didn't notice that this could be a decent (maybe major) winter storm on the north side. I know its Minnesota, but this is ridiculous. I want spring!
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#222 Postby Bunkertor » Tue Apr 08, 2008 7:30 pm

Well - this still belongs to tuesday. Go Mavs !

TORNADO WARNING
TXC099-193-281-090115-
/O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0009.080409T0026Z-080409T0115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
726 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN CORYELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL HAMILTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTH CENTRAL LAMPASAS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT

* AT 726 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF EVANT..MOVING EAST AT 27
MPH. SPOTTERS HAVE REPORTED A LOWERING WITH THIS STORM...AND A
TORNADO MAY DEVELOP AT ANY TIME.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
EVANT BY 735 PM CDT...

TAKE COVER IN A BASEMENT...OR ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME IN AN
INTERIOR CLOSET OR BATHROOM. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS FOR COVER.

LAT...LON 3130 9826 3139 9832 3139 9830 3142 9826
3146 9828 3148 9831 3163 9790 3132 9784
TIME...MOT...LOC 0026Z 269DEG 23KT 3141 9820

$$

SCHULTZ
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#223 Postby RL3AO » Tue Apr 08, 2008 8:00 pm

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT FOR EXTREME
NORTH CENTRAL LAMPASAS AND WEST CENTRAL CORYELL COUNTIES...

AT 746 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER EXTREME WEST
CENTRAL CORYELL COUNTY...MOVING EAST AT 26 MPH. SPOTTERS ARE STILL
NOTING A LOWERING WITH THIS STORM. A TORNADO MAY DEVELOP AT ANY
TIME. IN ADDITION...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER MAY ACCOMPANY THE
STORM.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
RURAL WESTERN CORYELL COUNTY AT 800 PM CDT
RURAL CENTRAL CORYELL COUNTY AT 810 PM CDT
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#224 Postby RL3AO » Tue Apr 08, 2008 8:16 pm

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
811 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CORYELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT

* AT 811 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GATESVILLE
..MOVING EAST AT
22 MPH. SPOTTERS ARE REPORTING INCREASING ROTATION WITH A
LOWERING. THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM AND A TORNADO MAY DEVELOP AT
ANY TIME. TAKE COVER NOW! IN ADDITION...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS OR LARGER MAY ACCOMPANY THIS STORM.
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#225 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Apr 08, 2008 8:22 pm

They might want to also put up a watch down there.
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#226 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Apr 08, 2008 8:22 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0592
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0806 PM CDT TUE APR 08 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...TX HILL COUNTRY INTO CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 090106Z - 090300Z

A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW ONGOING ALONG SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
SOUTH OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX INTO THE TEXAS HILL
COUNTRY. RATHER STRONG MID-LEVEL INHIBITION INITIALLY SLOWED
DEVELOPMENT...BUT FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT MAY HAVE CONTRIBUTED
TO INITIATION. THE BULK OF ACTIVITY APPEARS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED JUST
TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...WHICH LIKELY WILL STALL AS A STRONG
UPSTREAM TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES.
BENEATH A BUILDING HIGH-LEVEL RIDGE...MID/ UPPER FORCING TO SUSTAIN
CONVECTION DEEP INTO THE NIGHT IS STILL UNCERTAIN. BUT...MODERATE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH PRONOUNCED VEERING OF
WINDS WITH HEIGHT...MAY HELP MAINTAIN CELLS IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS...WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000
J/KG...AT LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.
ACTIVITY NEAR OR JUST NORTHEAST OF THE HILL COUNTRY...MAY BE THE
SLOWEST TO DIMINISH...AS NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF A SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET...UP TO 30 KT...COULD ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THIS REGION.

..KERR.. 04/09/2008


ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...EWX...SJT...

30639974 31159999 31649917 31819867 31789808 32549683
32639665 32639551 31599602 30269868
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#227 Postby RL3AO » Tue Apr 08, 2008 8:28 pm

821 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT FOR CORYELL
COUNTY...

AT 821 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
GATESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 22 MPH. THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM! TAKE
COVER NOW...INCLUDING IN THE GATESVILLE AREA! GATESVILLE FIRE
DEPARTMENT REPORTED A POSSIBLE TORNADO TOUCHDOWN NEAR 177 AND
HIGHWAY 84...OR ABOUT 10 MILES WEST OF GATESVILLE. TAKE COVER NOW!

IN ADDITION...LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS OR LARGER WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
GATESVILLE BY 835 PM CDT...
FORT GATES BY 840 PM CDT...
SOUTH MOUNTAIN BY 845 PM CDT...
OGLESBY BY 910 PM CDT...
MOTHER NEFF STATE PARK BY 915 PM CDT...
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#228 Postby Bunkertor » Tue Apr 08, 2008 8:49 pm

3 MD´s out.
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#229 Postby RL3AO » Tue Apr 08, 2008 8:52 pm

2 TORs and a third supercell behind them.

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN CORYELL COUNTY...

AT 848 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR FORT
GATES...MOVING EAST AT 22 MPH. THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. TAKE COVER
NOW! A TORNADO MAY DEVELOP AT ANY TIME.

A POSSIBLE TOUCHDOWN WAS REPORTED EARLIER WITH THIS STORM. THERE IS
ALSO A HISTORY OF GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
OGLESBY BY 910 PM CDT...
MOTHER NEFF STATE PARK BY 915 PM CDT...
---------

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
841 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
LAMPASAS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 945 PM CDT

* AT 841 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LOMETA..MOVING EAST AT 23
MPH. THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM AND MAY PRODUCE A TORNADO AT ANY
TIME. IN ADDITION...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER WILL BE POSSIBLE.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LOMETA BY 855 PM CDT...
LAMPASAS BY 925 PM CDT...
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#230 Postby RL3AO » Tue Apr 08, 2008 8:54 pm

Impressive velocities

Image
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#231 Postby RL3AO » Tue Apr 08, 2008 8:56 pm

Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 174
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
850 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY EVENING FROM 850 PM UNTIL 1100 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 30 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
JUNCTION TEXAS TO 60 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF TEMPLE TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 173...

DISCUSSION...SMALL CORRIDOR OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS/SUPERCELLS WILL
CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS NEAR STALLED SURFACE FRONT. IN
ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL...WILL LIKELY SEE ISOLATED TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WINDS WITH THESE STORMS UNTIL CAPPING INCREASES THROUGH THE
MID EVENING.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26025.


...EVANS
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#232 Postby RL3AO » Tue Apr 08, 2008 9:02 pm

Three active TORs and I don't think we are done. An impressive line of supercells.

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT FOR SOUTHERN
LAMPASAS COUNTY...

AT 900 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF
LOMETA...MOVING EAST AT 23 MPH. THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE A TORNADO AT
ANY TIME. THE TORNADO MAY BE OBSCURED BY RAIN AND HAIL. TAKE COVER NOW!

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LAMPASAS BY 925 PM CDT...


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
855 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN BELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 945 PM CDT

* AT 855 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO 19 MILES WEST OF TROY..MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.
SPOTTERS INDICATE A LOWERING WITH PERSISTENT ROTATION. IF A TORNADO
DEVELOPS...IT WILL BE WRAPPED IN RAIN AND HAIL. GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL
IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. TAKE COVER NOW! THIS IS A
DANGEROUS STORM.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
TROY BY 945 PM CDT...
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#233 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Tue Apr 08, 2008 9:05 pm

Tomorrow could be a bumpy ride and this looks to be a LONG event. The atmosphere could be primed for overnight supercells and tornadoes. The big variable at this point is when the front begins retreating back to the north and with what type of rapidity it does so. Also thursday night and early friday morning could also be interesting.
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#234 Postby RL3AO » Tue Apr 08, 2008 9:14 pm

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN BELL COUNTY...

AT 911 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF
TROY...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. SPOTTERS HAVE REPORTED A POSSIBLE
TOUCHDOWN NEAR FLAT AND COLD SPRINGS IN CORYELL COUNTY. A TORNADO
MAY DEVELOP AT ANY TIME. TAKE COVER NOW! IN ADDITION...GOLF BALL
SIZE HAIL OR LARGER MAY ACCOMPANY THE STORM.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
TROY BY 945 PM CDT...


905 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL CORYELL COUNTY...

AT 905 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF
OGLESBY...MOVING EAST AT 22 MPH. SPOTTERS ARE REPORTING A
LOWERING...POSSIBLY REACHING TO THE GROUND NEAR COLD SPRINGS. A
TORNADO MAY DEVELOP AT ANY TIME...AND WILL LIKELY BE OBSCURED BY
RAIN AND HAIL. TAKE COVER NOW!

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
OGLESBY BY 910 PM CDT...
MOTHER NEFF STATE PARK BY 915 PM CDT...
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: Another week of severe weather in the southern plains?

#235 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Apr 08, 2008 9:16 pm

That Tornado Watch is beyond 'now-casting' to 'hind-casting'.
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Re: Another week of severe weather in the southern plains?

#236 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Apr 08, 2008 9:21 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:That Tornado Watch is beyond 'now-casting' to 'hind-casting'.


Considering it is only for 2 hours and 10 minutes in duration - one of the shortest watches I can ever remember.
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: Another week of severe weather in the southern plains?

#237 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Apr 08, 2008 9:23 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Ed Mahmoud wrote:That Tornado Watch is beyond 'now-casting' to 'hind-casting'.


Considering it is only for 2 hours and 10 minutes in duration - one of the shortest watches I can ever remember.



In a perfect world, the tornado watch comes before the tornado warnings...
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#238 Postby RL3AO » Tue Apr 08, 2008 9:24 pm

922 PM CDT TUE APR 8 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN LAMPASAS COUNTY...

AT 922 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTH OF
LAMPASAS...MOVING EAST AT 23 MPH. SPOTTERS REPORTED A LOWERING 6
MILES WEST OF LAMPASAS. A TORNADO MAY DEVELOP AT ANY TIME. TAKE
COVER NOW! GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
RURAL EASTERN LAMPASAS COUNTY AT 940 PM CDT

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LAMPASAS.
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: Another week of severe weather in the southern plains?

#239 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Apr 08, 2008 9:34 pm

NWUS54 KFWD 090210
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
910 PM CDT TUE APR 08 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0907 PM TORNADO 12 SSE GATESVILLE 31.28N 97.66W
04/08/2008 CORYELL TX AMATEUR RADIO

POSSIBLE TORNADO...SPOTTERS SEE POWER FLASHES AND
REPORTED CLOUDS POSSIBLY REACHING THE GROUND NEAR COLD
SPRINGS.
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: Another week of severe weather in the southern plains?

#240 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Apr 08, 2008 10:58 pm

Just perusing new 0Z GFS (not all in yet) and 0Z WRF. GFS has warm front closer to DFW, and less interference from morning activity.


The GFS would place the Dallas area in a more serious severe weather situation, with strong instability and strong shear, with the only saving grace very limited instability in the lowest kilometer of the atmosphere.

Image
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