Instability a touch on the low side, but plenty of wind energy to make up for it.
Looks worse the further North one heads. Greenwood, MS WRF forecast sounding. Instability isn't tat much higher, but the low level winds are even stronger.
Another week of severe weather in the southern plains?
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Ed Mahmoud
Re: Another week of severe weather in the southern plains?
WRF shows JAN on the Southern edge of the precip late Thursday.
Instability a touch on the low side, but plenty of wind energy to make up for it.
Looks worse the further North one heads. Greenwood, MS WRF forecast sounding. Instability isn't tat much higher, but the low level winds are even stronger.
Instability a touch on the low side, but plenty of wind energy to make up for it.
Looks worse the further North one heads. Greenwood, MS WRF forecast sounding. Instability isn't tat much higher, but the low level winds are even stronger.
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rsdoug1981
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 184
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:22 pm
- Location: Canton, MS
Re: Another week of severe weather in the southern plains?
I appreciate it, Ed. I noticed Jackson is just about on the eastern fringe of the Day 3 MDT risk and is included in the Day 4 outlook. So...I suppose late Thursday night/early Friday morning is our target time.
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6SpeedTA95
- Category 5
- Posts: 1206
- Joined: Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:25 pm
- Location: Oklahoma
- Contact:
Next update is about 1hr and 15 mins from now at 12:30 CDT. I wonder if we'll get another between 6pm and 8pm on for this particular system.
Given the MDT box and the fact that the timing of the low could greatly alter the impact of the system they may give us a couple more updates today regarding this system.
Given the MDT box and the fact that the timing of the low could greatly alter the impact of the system they may give us a couple more updates today regarding this system.
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Re:
rsdoug1981 wrote:Ed or any of you other soundings gurus...
Do the Thursday soundings for the Jackson, MS area look nearly as rough as they do for points to our northwest? NWS Jackson is hyping the event, but they are (wisely) not pinpointing any single part of the CWFA at the moment.
I´m not a sounding guru but maybe an expert will show up later ( already has )
not even amateur
From my point of view the friday looks more scary, because of unstable airmass and wind forcing at higher air levels, that promote longliving thunderstorms-->supercells
than this one for thursday
Edit: airmass on this pic is unstable, too, but less than friday.
Last edited by Bunkertor on Tue Apr 08, 2008 11:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
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rsdoug1981
- Tropical Storm
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- Location: Canton, MS
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6SpeedTA95
- Category 5
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- Location: Oklahoma
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6SpeedTA95
- Category 5
- Posts: 1206
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- Location: Oklahoma
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Re: Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:6SpeedTA95 wrote:Latest model runs have this system taking on a pretty good negative tilt.
What does negative tilt mean?
Heres a good description....
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/127/
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Ed Mahmoud
Re: Another week of severe weather in the southern plains?
0Z Friday, while Friday in Germany, is early Thursday evening in the Central US.
Cold front passing FTW now,storm tried to pop ahead of it, but ins't making much progress.
Today is just a Slight Risk Day, but maybe a storm or two will pop South of DFW. Corsicana, TX is 75ºF (24ºC), and the sun is out now, so there will be a little more warming before the front passes. Soundings show CAPE reaching 1000 J/Kg, but very weak low level winds. Isolated, at best, I'd think, this afternoon.
Down closer to Houston, inhibition looks higher on model soundings, but mid level instability is higher.
-removed- for my lawn, some storms would fire up along the front up around College Station or Centerville, and develop a little cold pool that could push the front further South than forecast.
But I still think I shall be mowing and watering after work today.
Cold front passing FTW now,storm tried to pop ahead of it, but ins't making much progress.
Today is just a Slight Risk Day, but maybe a storm or two will pop South of DFW. Corsicana, TX is 75ºF (24ºC), and the sun is out now, so there will be a little more warming before the front passes. Soundings show CAPE reaching 1000 J/Kg, but very weak low level winds. Isolated, at best, I'd think, this afternoon.
Down closer to Houston, inhibition looks higher on model soundings, but mid level instability is higher.
-removed- for my lawn, some storms would fire up along the front up around College Station or Centerville, and develop a little cold pool that could push the front further South than forecast.
But I still think I shall be mowing and watering after work today.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Another week of severe weather in the southern plains?
No significant change:
SPC AC 081722
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT TUE APR 08 2008
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS EWD
INTO THE ARKLATEX AND OZARKS...
...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX/OZARKS...
NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL THINKING OF THE PREVIOUS DAY 2 OTLK WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS WED/WED NIGHT.
STRONG UPR TROUGH /12Z ANALYZED 90-METER/12-HR H5 HEIGHT FALLS/ WAS
DIGGING INTO THE WRN STATES TUE MORNING. WATER VAPOR SUGGESTS THAT
A LEAD WAVE WAS ALREADY EVOLVING WELL AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM OVER SRN
CA WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ALONG THE ORE/WA PAC CST.
THIS LEAD WAVE WILL AMPLIFY AND EMERGE ONTO THE SRN PLAINS LATER
TONIGHT AND EARLY ON WED WITH THE PRIMARY UPR TROUGH SPREADING INTO
KS...OK AND TX LATER WED NIGHT.
IN THE LWR-LEVELS...CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS BY EARLY WED. THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL RESPOND IN ERNEST WED
MORNING...ADVECTING 60S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS NWWD ACROSS TX.
ADDITIONALLY...THE COLD FRONT...EXPECTED TO STALL LATE TUESDAY
ACROSS CNTRL/NERN TX...WILL REDEVELOP NWD AS A WARM FRONT INTO AT
LEAST SRN OK DURING WED AFTN/NIGHT. THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD INTO
THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF TX LATE AFTN...BUT ACCELERATE EWD INTO WRN
OK...WRN NORTH TX AND CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY BY 12Z THU
AS THE PRIMARY IMPULSE ROTATES EWD.
OVERALL SVR SCENARIO WILL BE COMPLICATED SOMEWHAT BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED LEAD WAVE. ALL MODELS SUGGEST THAT AS LOW/MID-LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED AHEAD OF THIS
IMPULSE...CONSIDERABLE ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP FROM NWRN TX
INTO OK AND PSBLY AS FAR E AS THE ARKLATEX THROUGH EARLY AFTN. SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY YIELD LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES OF 7.5 DEG C/KM.
TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A SFC-BASED TSTM THREAT WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN
WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...EITHER AS NEW STORM INITIATION...OR
BACKBUILDING ALONG SRN/WRN EDGE OF THE MORNING ACTIVITY. IF
CLOUDS/PCPN CAN CLEAR THE REGION...RETURNING 60S DEW POINTS...STRONG
HEATING AND THE RESIDENT STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH MLCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG. MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH 50-60 KTS OF BULK SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. A FEW
TORNADOES...SOME STRONG...WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW IS PROGD TO REMAIN SSELY BENEATH STRONGLY VEERING PROFILES
BETWEEN SFC-1KM. THE SVR RISKS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
NIGHT...LIKELY EXPANDING N AND E WITH AN ADDITIONAL RISK OF DMGG
WIND GUSTS ACROSS NCNTRL/NE TX INTO CNTRL/ERN OK AND PSBLY WRN
AR/SWRN MO.
AS THE PRIMARY UPR WAVE EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS WED NIGHT...A
SEPARATE AREA OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE LOW-ROLLING
PLAINS OF TX SWD INTO THE ERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AREA...ALONG/E OF THE
DRYLINE/PAC FRONT. BACKING OF THE LOW/MID-LVL WIND PROFILES WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN MORE OF A LINEAR MODE TO THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE
TOWARD SWRN OK...NCNTRL AND CNTRL TX BY 12Z THU. NONETHELESS...DMGG
WIND GUSTS...HAIL AND ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE PSBL. NRN PORTIONS OF
THIS LINE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP N OF THE WARM FRONT INTO SRN KS WITH
TIME. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE MORE OF A HAIL THREAT.
..RACY.. 04/08/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1730Z (1:30PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
SPC AC 081722
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT TUE APR 08 2008
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS EWD
INTO THE ARKLATEX AND OZARKS...
...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX/OZARKS...
NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL THINKING OF THE PREVIOUS DAY 2 OTLK WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS WED/WED NIGHT.
STRONG UPR TROUGH /12Z ANALYZED 90-METER/12-HR H5 HEIGHT FALLS/ WAS
DIGGING INTO THE WRN STATES TUE MORNING. WATER VAPOR SUGGESTS THAT
A LEAD WAVE WAS ALREADY EVOLVING WELL AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM OVER SRN
CA WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ALONG THE ORE/WA PAC CST.
THIS LEAD WAVE WILL AMPLIFY AND EMERGE ONTO THE SRN PLAINS LATER
TONIGHT AND EARLY ON WED WITH THE PRIMARY UPR TROUGH SPREADING INTO
KS...OK AND TX LATER WED NIGHT.
IN THE LWR-LEVELS...CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS BY EARLY WED. THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL RESPOND IN ERNEST WED
MORNING...ADVECTING 60S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS NWWD ACROSS TX.
ADDITIONALLY...THE COLD FRONT...EXPECTED TO STALL LATE TUESDAY
ACROSS CNTRL/NERN TX...WILL REDEVELOP NWD AS A WARM FRONT INTO AT
LEAST SRN OK DURING WED AFTN/NIGHT. THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD INTO
THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF TX LATE AFTN...BUT ACCELERATE EWD INTO WRN
OK...WRN NORTH TX AND CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY BY 12Z THU
AS THE PRIMARY IMPULSE ROTATES EWD.
OVERALL SVR SCENARIO WILL BE COMPLICATED SOMEWHAT BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED LEAD WAVE. ALL MODELS SUGGEST THAT AS LOW/MID-LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED AHEAD OF THIS
IMPULSE...CONSIDERABLE ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP FROM NWRN TX
INTO OK AND PSBLY AS FAR E AS THE ARKLATEX THROUGH EARLY AFTN. SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY YIELD LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES OF 7.5 DEG C/KM.
TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A SFC-BASED TSTM THREAT WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN
WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...EITHER AS NEW STORM INITIATION...OR
BACKBUILDING ALONG SRN/WRN EDGE OF THE MORNING ACTIVITY. IF
CLOUDS/PCPN CAN CLEAR THE REGION...RETURNING 60S DEW POINTS...STRONG
HEATING AND THE RESIDENT STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH MLCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG. MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH 50-60 KTS OF BULK SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. A FEW
TORNADOES...SOME STRONG...WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW IS PROGD TO REMAIN SSELY BENEATH STRONGLY VEERING PROFILES
BETWEEN SFC-1KM. THE SVR RISKS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
NIGHT...LIKELY EXPANDING N AND E WITH AN ADDITIONAL RISK OF DMGG
WIND GUSTS ACROSS NCNTRL/NE TX INTO CNTRL/ERN OK AND PSBLY WRN
AR/SWRN MO.
AS THE PRIMARY UPR WAVE EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS WED NIGHT...A
SEPARATE AREA OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE LOW-ROLLING
PLAINS OF TX SWD INTO THE ERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AREA...ALONG/E OF THE
DRYLINE/PAC FRONT. BACKING OF THE LOW/MID-LVL WIND PROFILES WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN MORE OF A LINEAR MODE TO THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE
TOWARD SWRN OK...NCNTRL AND CNTRL TX BY 12Z THU. NONETHELESS...DMGG
WIND GUSTS...HAIL AND ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE PSBL. NRN PORTIONS OF
THIS LINE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP N OF THE WARM FRONT INTO SRN KS WITH
TIME. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE MORE OF A HAIL THREAT.
..RACY.. 04/08/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1730Z (1:30PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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Squarethecircle
- Category 5
- Posts: 2165
- Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2007 4:00 pm
- Location: Fairfax, VA
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JonathanBelles
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 11430
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
- Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
- Contact:
I havent said anything yet on this, but im gonna break my peace. I dont like hyping things, but this looks like it is gonna be one of the biggest svrwx events this year so far. Thursday looks to be the worst, but Wednesday night could be bad as well. I think all types of svrwx is possible with this system is a widespread fashion. Anywhere from Texas to Ohio should be preparing for a just in case situation. Unfortunately that is over the area where rain is not wanted. Flooding will likely be a problem with this system. I think SPC will be going High risk on Thursday. All of the above is jmo, and I am not a met.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re:
fact789 wrote:I havent said anything yet on this, but im gonna break my peace. I dont like hyping things, but this looks like it is gonna be one of the biggest svrwx events this year so far. Thursday looks to be the worst, but Wednesday night could be bad as well. I think all types of svrwx is possible with this system is a widespread fashion. Anywhere from Texas to Ohio should be preparing for a just in case situation. Unfortunately that is over the area where rain is not wanted. Flooding will likely be a problem with this system. I think SPC will be going High risk on Thursday. All of the above is jmo, and I am not a met.
I agree that this could be a horrendous outbreak (plus a flooding problem that could become very serious as well). I'd say on Thursday anywhere from southern Lake Michigan all the way down to NE Texas and Louisiana could get involved with widespread tornadoes - many of them could be strong or violent (particularly in the central area from central Illinois to southern Arkansas where I think there will be a high risk). Friday is more difficult to predict, but it could very well spread east from Ohio down to Alabama. Tomorrow we'll know more, but I can definitely see another moderate risk issued for Friday for parts of that area.
This could very well be an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Back to the current threat:
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0586
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 PM CDT TUE APR 08 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN/CENTRAL AR...SERN OK...NERN TX.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 081930Z - 082030Z
SVR THREAT INCREASING THROUGH 21Z...MAINLY HAIL/WIND. TORNADO
POTENTIAL IS MORE MRGL AND CONDITIONAL ON STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS.
WW PROBABLE WITHIN AN HOUR.
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM SWRN MO SSWWD ACROSS LEFLORE
COUNTY OK...THROUGH WEAK MESOLOW ABOUT 40 W PRX...SWWD OVER DAL.
FRONT SHOULD MOVE SEWD 10-15 KT AND BOUND WRN EDGE OF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY HINDRANCE TO FAVORABLE
DESTABILIZATION SO FAR HAS BEEN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP RELATED TO
ELEVATED PLUME OF CONVECTION MOVING NEWD ACROSS THIS REGION. VIS
IMAGERY SHOWS BREAKS IN CLOUD OVER ACROSS THIS REGION THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW EPISODIC BUT STG INSOLATION...WARMING SFC TEMPS
INTO LOW 80S IN NE TX...AND MID-UPPER 70S ACROSS OUACHITA MOUNTAINS
REGION OF SERN OK/SWRN AR. CENTRAL AR DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE
MORE MUTED...BUT STILL POTENTIALLY FAVORABLE...GIVEN DELAYED RETREAT
OF CLOUDS/PRECIP RELATIVE TO FARTHER SW.
12Z FWD RAOB SHOWED VERY STG INVERSION. HOWEVER...15Z LZK RAOB WAS
LESS CAPPED..AND 18-19Z ACARS SOUNDINGS FROM FWD SHOWED DEEPENING
BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH SLOW VERTICAL LIFT/EROSION OF LID. TIME
SERIES OF MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS REASONABLY INDICATES CINH
CONTINUING TO ERODE FROM COMBINATION OF HEATING AND FRONTAL FORCING.
ACCORDINGLY...THAT LESS THAN 25 J/KG MLCINH SHOULD BE COMMON ALONG
FRONT IN NE TX WITHIN NEXT 1-2 HOURS. SFC DEW POINTS LOW-MID 60S F
CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG IN PRX-LIT CORRIDOR BY ABOUT
21Z. WEAK SFC WINDS MAY LIMIT CONVERGENCE...BUT FAVORABLE
HODOGRAPHS ALREADY ARE EVIDENT IN VWP/PROFILER DATA...ALONG WITH
40-50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR. STORM MODES MAY BE SOMEWHAT
DISCRETE/SUPERCELLULAR EARLY IN CONVECTIVE CYCLE...EVOLVING TO
SEGMENTED/LINEAR.
..EDWARDS.. 04/08/2008
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0586
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 PM CDT TUE APR 08 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN/CENTRAL AR...SERN OK...NERN TX.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 081930Z - 082030Z
SVR THREAT INCREASING THROUGH 21Z...MAINLY HAIL/WIND. TORNADO
POTENTIAL IS MORE MRGL AND CONDITIONAL ON STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS.
WW PROBABLE WITHIN AN HOUR.
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM SWRN MO SSWWD ACROSS LEFLORE
COUNTY OK...THROUGH WEAK MESOLOW ABOUT 40 W PRX...SWWD OVER DAL.
FRONT SHOULD MOVE SEWD 10-15 KT AND BOUND WRN EDGE OF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY HINDRANCE TO FAVORABLE
DESTABILIZATION SO FAR HAS BEEN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP RELATED TO
ELEVATED PLUME OF CONVECTION MOVING NEWD ACROSS THIS REGION. VIS
IMAGERY SHOWS BREAKS IN CLOUD OVER ACROSS THIS REGION THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW EPISODIC BUT STG INSOLATION...WARMING SFC TEMPS
INTO LOW 80S IN NE TX...AND MID-UPPER 70S ACROSS OUACHITA MOUNTAINS
REGION OF SERN OK/SWRN AR. CENTRAL AR DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE
MORE MUTED...BUT STILL POTENTIALLY FAVORABLE...GIVEN DELAYED RETREAT
OF CLOUDS/PRECIP RELATIVE TO FARTHER SW.
12Z FWD RAOB SHOWED VERY STG INVERSION. HOWEVER...15Z LZK RAOB WAS
LESS CAPPED..AND 18-19Z ACARS SOUNDINGS FROM FWD SHOWED DEEPENING
BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH SLOW VERTICAL LIFT/EROSION OF LID. TIME
SERIES OF MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS REASONABLY INDICATES CINH
CONTINUING TO ERODE FROM COMBINATION OF HEATING AND FRONTAL FORCING.
ACCORDINGLY...THAT LESS THAN 25 J/KG MLCINH SHOULD BE COMMON ALONG
FRONT IN NE TX WITHIN NEXT 1-2 HOURS. SFC DEW POINTS LOW-MID 60S F
CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG IN PRX-LIT CORRIDOR BY ABOUT
21Z. WEAK SFC WINDS MAY LIMIT CONVERGENCE...BUT FAVORABLE
HODOGRAPHS ALREADY ARE EVIDENT IN VWP/PROFILER DATA...ALONG WITH
40-50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR. STORM MODES MAY BE SOMEWHAT
DISCRETE/SUPERCELLULAR EARLY IN CONVECTIVE CYCLE...EVOLVING TO
SEGMENTED/LINEAR.
..EDWARDS.. 04/08/2008
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Another week of severe weather in the southern plains?
Joe Bastardi goes beyond all our thinking and is predicting Super Outbreak II...
http://www.accuweather.com/news-blogs.a ... 4-07_19:08
http://www.accuweather.com/news-blogs.a ... 4-07_19:08
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Re: Another week of severe weather in the southern plains?
CrazyC83 wrote:Joe Bastardi goes beyond all our thinking and is predicting Super Outbreak II...
http://www.accuweather.com/news-blogs.a ... 4-07_19:08
LI at < -10
So, then obviously i´ll have to buy a pound of coffee and a few hundred cigarettes.
Last edited by Bunkertor on Tue Apr 08, 2008 2:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Another week of severe weather in the southern plains?
CrazyC83 wrote:Joe Bastardi goes beyond all our thinking and is predicting Super Outbreak II...
http://www.accuweather.com/news-blogs.a ... 4-07_19:08
Well, that means we will have a bust.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Another week of severe weather in the southern plains?
Bunkertor wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:Joe Bastardi goes beyond all our thinking and is predicting Super Outbreak II...
http://www.accuweather.com/news-blogs.a ... 4-07_19:08
LI at < -10
So, then obviously i´ll have to buy a pound of coffee and a few hundred cigarettes.
LI at -10 is downright explosive. I'd pass on the latter though, but get enough coffee to last through Saturday possibly...
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