possible severe outbreak in TX/OK on thursday?

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Ed Mahmoud

Re: possible severe outbreak in TX/OK on thursday?

#81 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu Apr 03, 2008 10:05 pm

Yep, cancelling the tornado watch that was busting completely has triggered a plethora of warnings in SE Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
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Re: possible severe outbreak in TX/OK on thursday?

#82 Postby RL3AO » Thu Apr 03, 2008 10:07 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Yep, cancelling the tornado watch that was busting completely has triggered a plethora of warnings in SE Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.


Go figure. :D
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Re: possible severe outbreak in TX/OK on thursday?

#83 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu Apr 03, 2008 10:14 pm

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
955 PM CDT THU APR 03 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0910 PM TORNADO LONSDALE 34.54N 92.81W
04/03/2008 GARLAND AR AIRPLANE PILOT

DEBRIS IN AIR REPORTED AT THE HWY 70/30 SPLIT NEAR
LONSDALE.

0915 PM TORNADO 2 SW BENTON 34.55N 92.60W
04/03/2008 SALINE AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWER LINES ARE DOWN AND AUTOMOBILE DAMAGED BY POSSIBLE
TORNADO 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BENTON
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#84 Postby Bunkertor » Thu Apr 03, 2008 10:15 pm

I guess the forecast guys felt pretty bored and disappointed so they launched some warnings out of revenge... :double:
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Re: possible severe outbreak in TX/OK on thursday?

#85 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu Apr 03, 2008 10:15 pm

TORNADO WARNING
ARC085-117-119-145-040400-
/O.NEW.KLZK.TO.W.0030.080404T0313Z-080404T0400Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1013 PM CDT THU APR 3 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN LONOKE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS
NORTHWESTERN PRAIRIE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS
NORTHEASTERN PULASKI COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN WHITE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 1100 PM CDT

* AT 1010 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED...AND SPOTTERS HAVE CONFIMRED NEAR NORTH LITTLE ROCK
AIRPORT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LITTLE ROCK AIR FORCE BASE...JACKSONVILLE...SOUTH BEND AROUND 1020
PM CDT...
OLD AUSTIN...CABOT AROUND 1030 PM CDT...
OLD AUSTIN...WARD AROUND 1035 PM CDT...
BEEBE AROUND 1040 PM CDT...
MCRAE AROUND 1045 PM CDT...

&&

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Idea probably not that bad

#86 Postby Bunkertor » Thu Apr 03, 2008 10:20 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0546
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0949 PM CDT THU APR 03 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK/N TX/AR/NWRN MS/FAR SERN MO/WRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 157...158...

VALID 040249Z - 040415Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
157...158...CONTINUES.

SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THIS AREA...AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD
EWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...POSSIBLY REQUIRING A NEW WW.

LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS SCATTERED STORMS INVOF SEWD-MOVING COLD
FRONT FROM NWRN AR SWWD INTO N TX...WHILE MORE
WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN A BROKEN BAND
FROM NERN TX NEWD ACROSS AR. MOST SIGNIFICANT STORM IS A SUPERCELL
AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND NOW NEAR LITTLE ROCK AR...WHICH HAS PRODUCED
APPARENT TORNADIC DAMAGE OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR. THIS STORM SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING NEWD TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY WITH TIME GIVEN
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
SEVERE/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE...THREAT FOR HAIL -- AND A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS -- WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH AR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. WITH AT LEAST SOME
SEVERE THREAT LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO FAR SERN MO/WRN KY/WRN TN/NWRN
MS...NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
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on air

#87 Postby Bunkertor » Thu Apr 03, 2008 10:24 pm

http://www.katv.com/

Anchor tells tornado moved over the NWS-office Little Rock and moves towards an airforce base.
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Re: possible severe outbreak in TX/OK on thursday?

#88 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu Apr 03, 2008 10:37 pm

The Little Rock radial velocity really showed the couplet very well as it moved away...



SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1032 PM CDT THU APR 3 2008

ARC119-040342-
/O.CAN.KLZK.TO.W.0030.000000T0000Z-080404T0400Z/
PULASKI AR-
1032 PM CDT THU APR 3 2008

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN PULASKI COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT FRIDAY
MORNING FOR ARKANSAS.

LAT...LON 3481 9207 3503 9207 3503 9211 3506 9211
3534 9165 3501 9147
TIME...MOT...LOC 0332Z 233DEG 27KT 3495 9205

$$

ARC085-117-145-040400-
/O.CON.KLZK.TO.W.0030.000000T0000Z-080404T0400Z/
LONOKE AR-PRAIRIE AR-WHITE AR-
1032 PM CDT THU APR 3 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR SOUTHERN
WHITE...NORTHWESTERN PRAIRIE AND NORTHERN LONOKE COUNTIES...

AT 1031 PM CDT...A TORNADO WAS CONFIRMED. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 3
MILES SOUTHWEST OF CABOT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO OLD
AUSTIN...CABOT...WARD...AND BEEBE.

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Re: possible severe outbreak in TX/OK on thursday?

#89 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu Apr 03, 2008 10:41 pm

Bed time, but this county already had a confirmed tornado with damage near Lonsdale, and a new cell approaches...


WFUS54 KLZK 040336
TORLZK
ARC051-059-125-040430-
/O.NEW.KLZK.TO.W.0031.080404T0337Z-080404T0430Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1037 PM CDT THU APR 3 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN GARLAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS
CENTRAL SALINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS
NORTH CENTRAL HOT SPRING COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT

* AT 1036 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR ROCKWELL...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
HOT SPRINGS...HOT SPRINGS NATIONAL PARK AROUND 1045 PM CDT...
LAKE CATHERINE AROUND 1050 PM CDT...
LONSDALE AROUND 1100 PM CDT...
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IR Arkansas

#90 Postby Bunkertor » Thu Apr 03, 2008 10:44 pm

This cell is enormous

Image
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#91 Postby RL3AO » Thu Apr 03, 2008 10:48 pm

Thats not really a cell. Its just a giant cluster of thunderstorms.
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Re:

#92 Postby Bunkertor » Thu Apr 03, 2008 10:51 pm

RL3AO wrote:Thats not really a cell. Its just a giant cluster of thunderstorms.


Your right of course.
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#93 Postby brunota2003 » Thu Apr 03, 2008 10:56 pm

Wonder if the "spotters" included on-duty NWS employees:

0310 NORTH LITTLE ROCK AIRPO PULASKI AR 3483 9227 TORNADO PASSED OVER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN NORTH LITTLE ROCK AT THE NORTH LITTLE ROCK AIRPORT. DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS SURROUNDING THE AIRPORT ON AIRPORT PROPER (LZK
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#94 Postby Bunkertor » Fri Apr 04, 2008 12:04 am

Current Damage being reported:
- Damage to the Everett Car Dealership in Bryant
- Natural Gas Leak in Benton
- Mobile Homes on Fire near HWY 5 in Hurricane Creek
- Fires in Benton & Bryant
- Damage at Target in Bryant
- Damage in Little Rock around the Markham & John Barrow area
- Damage at the North Little Rock Airport; number of planes destroyed
- Damage in Shiloh Subdivision in Cabot
- Damage at the Sherwood Sports Complex
- Damage in the Hidden Creek Neighborhood in Sherwood
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#95 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Apr 04, 2008 7:30 am

Looks like one rogue supercell in a heavily populated area. Sounds like an EF2. Fortunately I haven't heard of any fatalities.
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Re: possible severe outbreak in TX/OK on thursday?

#96 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Apr 04, 2008 8:09 am

Well for the most part the line that moved thru DFW was pretty much a bust. The line weakened quite a bit, except for in one area, right were we were. It was probably the smallest storm of its intensity ive ever seen. In a duration of less than ten minutes the storm had moved in and out, and at the same time covered the ground with quarter to golf ball size hail.
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: possible severe outbreak in TX/OK on thursday?

#97 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Fri Apr 04, 2008 8:26 am

Pasted from SE TX/SW Louisiana post. If we don't get at least half an inch of rain around DWH and IAH (my house is in between) I will be dragging out the sprinkler again this weekend.

Ed Mahmoud wrote:The cap of forged steel will almost certainly prevent any deep activity ahead of the cold front in SE Texas, but there could be showers along the front, and the 18Z GFS suggests enough elevated instability between 650 mb and 250 mb for some very elevated storms behind the front.


Now, SW Louisiana might get a little heating before the front gets there, and with their Southwest winds aloft not quite as directly off the hot and dry Mexican plateau as Houston's, they have a better chance at surface based storms. Not a whole lot of low level wind, so severe threat isn't huge, but at least a chance.

Image

Image
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#98 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Apr 04, 2008 5:35 pm

000
NOUS44 KLZK 042200
PNSLZK
ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-051200-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 PM CDT FRI APR 4 2008

...TORNADO SURVEY BEING CONDUCTED IN SALINE COUNTY...

A TEAM FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK SURVEYED
TORNADO DAMAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SALINE COUNTY TODAY. A TORNADO
TRACKED FROM 2.7 MILES NORTHEAST OF BENTON TO 2.2 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BRYANT. THIS INCLUDED THE AREA IN AND AROUND THE HURRICANE LAKE
MOBILE HOME PARK. THE PATH LENGTH WAS 2.7 MILES LONG. THE TORNADO
HAS BEEN RATED AN EF2 ON THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE.

A LOCAL CAR DEALERSHIP SUSTAINED BUILDING AND VEHICLE DAMAGE. ROOF
DAMAGE WAS NOTED TO A NUMBER OF HOMES IN THE AREA. AT THE MOBILE
HOME PARK...MANY OF THE HOMES WERE EITHER DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES WERE ALSO DOWNED.

...MORE SURVEYS...

SURVEYS WILL TAKE PLACE THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS SALINE...PULASKI
AND LONOKE COUNTIES. THESE COUNTIES WERE AFFECTED BY THE SAME STORM
SYSTEM THAT PRODUCED A TORNADO IN THE AREAS SURVEYED TODAY.

...SURVEYORS...

THE SURVEY TODAY WAS CONDUCTED BY JOHN ROBINSON...WARNING
COORDINATION METEOROLOGIST...AND RENEE FAIR...METEOROLOGIST IN
CHARGE...BOTH FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK.

$$

44
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