possible severe outbreak in TX/OK on thursday?

[RL3AO]

VIL of 70 with that cell.

[TexasSam]

Interesting information about a heatburst:

http://www.weathernotebook.org/transcripts/2002/07/22.html

[CrazyC83]

2055 425 2 N SCOTLAND ARCHER TX 3369 9847 LOCATION AND TIME ESTIMATED (OUN

[Bunkertor]

What makes such huge hailstones possible at the moment ?

[RL3AO]

What makes such huge hailstones possible at the moment ?

From SPC
FAVORABLE BULK SHEAR FROM 40-50 KT ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD MID LEVEL PROFILES WILL SUPPORT THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES

[RL3AO]

20%/20% tornado probs

[Ed Mahmoud]

If you look closely on Frederick radar, I think you can see the dryline actually retreating slightly, as another boundary (the actual cold front, probably, approaches from North.

[Ed Mahmoud]

If you look closely on Frederick radar, I think you can see the dryline actually retreating slightly, as another boundary (the actual cold front, probably, approaches from North.

edit to add:

New storms trying to fire back in Wilbarger County?

[Ed Mahmoud]

AREA WEATHER UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
450 PM CST THU APR 03 2008

...WARNING DECISION UPDATE...

THIS WARNING DECISION UPDATE CONCERNS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

REGIONAL RADARS AND OKLAHOMA MESONET DEPICTS TWO BOUNDARIES OF
POTENTIAL IMPORTANCE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS IN I44
CORRIDOR FROM LAWTON TO OKC AREA NEXT 2-3 HOURS. FIRST IS FRONT
LONG LINE FROM STILLWATER...TO CASHION...TO BINGER...TO NEAR
MANGUM...MOVING SOUTH. SECOND IS MOIST SURGE OF RELATIVELY WARM
HUMID OUTFLOW AIR FROM MCLOUD ...TO NOBLE...TO RUSH SPRINGS...TO
NEAR FREDERICK...MOVING NORTH. EXTRAPOLATION COVERGES THESE
BOUNDARIES FROM SOUTHEAST SIDES OF OKC METRO...TO NEAR FORT
COBB...TO NEAR WICHITA MOUNTAINS BY 630 PM.

AIR SOUTH OF THESE COLLDING BOUNDARIES WILL HAVE CAPE VALUES NEAR OR
ABOVE 2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR GREATER THAN 50 KTS WHICH COULD
SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORMS IF BOUNDARIES CAN INITIATE CONVECTION. LAPS
ANALYSIS AND RUC FORECAST INDICATE VALUES OF CIN SHOULD BE SMALL
ENOUGH TO ALLOW STORMS TO FIRE.

LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS LESS CERTAIN AND IS KEY TO TORNADO THREAT.
TRENDS IN BACKING LOW-LEVEL FLOW OBSERVED BY OKLAHOMA MESONET
SUPPORT STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR THAN HAS BEEN OBSERVED EARLIER IN
THE DAY. WE WILL CAREFULLY MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THESE BOUNDARIES
THROUGH 7 PM ALONG WITH TRENDS IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR. THOUGH STORMS
HAVE BEEN STRONGEST SOUTH OF RED RIVER...AREAS FURTHER NORTH...
INCLUDING OKC METRO...STILL HAVE SEVERE STORM THREAT...ESPECIALLY
NEAR BOUNDARY COLLISION TIME THIS EVENING.

[TxWxFrisco]

If you look closely on Frederick radar, I think you can see the dryline actually retreating slightly, as another boundary (the actual cold front, probably, approaches from North.

Hard to say, my first thought was that of an outflow boundry. I can't remember ever seeing one on the north side of a storm and moving in a west/northwest direction... I guess if the cell is collapsing and the downrush of air may have picked up some dust and that is showing up on radar...

I know on Monday the dryline was clearly visible on radar for most of the afternoon and it looked very similar to this... What makes me suspicious is how fast it is backing up...

[Bunkertor]

What makes such huge hailstones possible at the moment ?

From SPC
FAVORABLE BULK SHEAR FROM 40-50 KT ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD MID LEVEL PROFILES WILL SUPPORT THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES

Thanks ! Having some translation problems. Does bulkshear refer to the Bulk Richardson Number ?

[Bunkertor]

Wouldn´t be suprised if we saw a TOR on the OK/TX-border cell.

[Bunkertor]

weather radio OKC awaits init of severe storms between 540 and 700 CST

[CrazyC83]

20%/20% tornado probs

Only should be a Severe Thunderstorm Watch there.

[RL3AO]

Check out this hail report

2055 425 2 N SCOTLAND ARCHER TX 3369 9847 LOCATION AND TIME ESTIMATED (OUN)

[CrazyC83]

Check out this hail report

2055 425 2 N SCOTLAND ARCHER TX 3369 9847 LOCATION AND TIME ESTIMATED (OUN)

Yep, that was a little while ago from the monster cell. That is still possible this evening, although I don't see a significant tornado risk at all - I'd keep the MDT though (for hail).

[Bunkertor]

Check out this hail report

2055 425 2 N SCOTLAND ARCHER TX 3369 9847 LOCATION AND TIME ESTIMATED (OUN)

Makes 10,8 cm

[Ed Mahmoud]

Semi-bust today, as far as severe goes, although the people in Scotland, TX that got softball hail might disagree.

FLUS74 KOUN 032328
AWUOUN

AREA WEATHER UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
625 PM CST THU APR 03 2008

...WARNING DECISION UPDATE...

THIS WARNING DECISION UPDATE CONCERNS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

CELLS ALONG BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA ARE RAPIDLY
LINING OUT. COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE BOUNDARY IN NEXT 30-60 MINUTES
AND FURTHER FORCE LINEAR ORGANIZATION OF STORMS. FRONT IS ALSO
ACCELERATING AND NOW IS MOVING OVER 20 KTS TO SOUTH. THIS WILL HELP
SHIFT STORMS SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE EVENING.

THOUGH DEEP SHEAR AND BUOYANCY ARE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL
STORMS...SEEDING FROM ONE CELL TO ANOTHER ALONG LINE AND STRONG
LINEAR FORCING ALONG BOUNDARY WHICH IS PARALLEL TO SHEAR VECTOR WILL
MAKE IT HARD FOR STORMS TO BECOME DISTINCT. THESE FACTORS...
COMBINED WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS IN MOIST SECTOR...SHOULD HELP TO
LESSEN OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF SEVERE THREAT AND POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS.

[Ed Mahmoud]

SPC replaced busted tornado watches with new Severe T-storm Watch, which immediately causes a tornado.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
851 PM CDT THU APR 3 2008

ARC051-059-125-040230-
/O.CON.KLZK.TO.W.0028.000000T0000Z-080404T0230Z/
HOT SPRING AR-GARLAND AR-SALINE AR-
851 PM CDT THU APR 3 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
SALINE...EAST CENTRAL GARLAND AND NORTHEASTERN HOT SPRING COUNTIES...

AT 849 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKE
CATHERINE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
LONSDALE...HASKELL...BENTON...HURRICANE LAKE AND BRYANT.

[Bunkertor]

Late start. I had an uncertain feeling, somehow