possible severe outbreak in TX/OK on thursday?

[RL3AO]

In my amateur opinion, I say we are 65% to get a high risk tomorrow.

Anyway...

[Ed Mahmoud]

In my amateur opinion, I say we are 65% to get a high risk tomorrow.

Anyway...

And the 18Z WRF does pop that lone cell between ABI and DFW sometime between 18Z and 21Z!

[CrazyC83]

If I made the call, I'd hold it at MDT at least to start (15H tornado, 45H hail, 30H wind), and see what happens in the overnight hours. If an outbreak seems imminent, then go HIGH at 1300Z or 1630Z.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Some of these supercells that could form will easily produce tornadoes and damaging
winds of 50+ mph, like the strong storm I saw today! Stormchasers
of the plains get ready to rummmble!!!!

[Ed Mahmoud]

In favor of severe weather is strong deep layer shear, and high instability. Low level winds a tad weak, which might limit tornado thread a little, per latest WRF.



Maybe more of a gusty wind and hail threat than tornadoes, if surface winds do stay light. 7 pm forecast sounding for DFW

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Ed if you get any wild storm pics on camera...that would rock!!!!

[Ed Mahmoud]

In favor of severe weather is strong deep layer shear, and high instability. Low level winds a tad weak, which might limit tornado thread a little, per latest WRF.



Maybe more of a gusty wind and hail threat than tornadoes, if surface winds do stay light. 7 pm forecast sounding for DFW

Ack, NWS FWD beat me to the punch by 9 minutes...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
940 PM CDT WED APR 2 2008

.PUBLIC FORECAST DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS CURRENTLY DEPICT THAT THE BEST COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY (USING THE ENERGY/HELICITY INDEX (OR EHI) IS PINNING THE
GREATEST TORNADO THREAT TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO BE NEAR THE RED
RIVER...FROM JUST NORTHWEST OF FORT WORTH EASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST
TEXAS...NORTHEAST OF DALLAS. (THE EHI, SHORT FOR ENERGY/HELICITY
INDEX) COMBINES INSTABILITY WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR....THE TWO
MOST IMPORTANT PARAMETERS FOR TORNADOES.)

THINGS ARE LIABLE TO CHANGE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THIS DATA
REALLY STANDS OUT NOW.

NEGATIVES? YES. THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY OF CHILDRESS OR LUBBOCK IS NOT SHOWING A REAL STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT TOMORROW TO ITS EAST...THUS...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW IS NOT REAL TIGHT IN THE MODELS`
FORECAST.

HOWEVER...THINGS WILL CHANGE OVERNIGHT....AND THIS INFORMATION COULD
BECOME OBVIATED BY TOMORROW`S DATA.

ALL IN ALL...THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER
THURSDAY.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Ed if you get any wild storm pics on camera...that would rock!!!!

I'm in Houston, where thunderstorms are fairly common, but severe weather is rare, and usually, for some reason, happens well after sunset.

[TxWxFrisco]

I live in Collin County, just north of Dallas... If it gets bad before dark I will take and post some pics... Seems like just a couple of days ago we had the tordano sirens blaring and a wall cloud moving over my neighborhood... Oh wait, we did... on Monday...lol

Here we go again!

[Ed Mahmoud]

I live in Collin County, just north of Dallas... If it gets bad before dark I will take and post some pics... Seems like just a couple of days ago we had the tordano sirens blaring and a wall cloud moving over my neighborhood... Oh wait, we did... on Monday...lol

Here we go again!

You got a nice ominous low cloud base pic from the Denton to Collin county tornadic storm the other day. Go ahead, link that image again, just for practice.

[cheezyWXguy]

Ed if you get any wild storm pics on camera...that would rock!!!!

I'm in Houston, where thunderstorms are fairly common, but severe weather is rare, and usually, for some reason, happens well after sunset.

I guess ill try to take over then...i live in the northern half of the DFW area, which appears to be the area bearing the brunt of the severe weather. If a strong storm passes over my house and i can find my video camera, then ill try to shoot and upload a video..if its impressive at all. I must say though...we usually luck out here in plano. Storms tend to move right around us or die out right before they get here. In terms of tornadoes, I hope that luck stays...however, i am hoping to some strong winds and large hail, just to bring something extraordinary into my incredibly ordinary city.

[Ed Mahmoud]

My sister and brother in law used to live in Plano, when they worked at GE in Richardson. Or vice versa. About 15 years ago now. Don't know if it has been improved, but US 75 heading up that way from Dallas was like driving in Houston.


Had a few beers in Plano.


Get the video camera out now, and check the batteries, and bring to the office.

[Ed Mahmoud]

For some reason Arlington seems to get more than its share of Metroplex tornadoes.

[CrazyC83]

Not enough consensus for an upgrade - I expect it to remain a moderate risk at 0600Z.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Not enough consensus for an upgrade - I expect it to remain a moderate risk at 0600Z.

maybe, an the 7 am CDT soundings will make the difference between holding at moderate or upgrading onnthe 11:30 am CDT (1630Z) SWODY1 update. Plus they'll have another run of the models to look at.


But if surface winds stay light in areas of best instability as suggested by 0Z WRF, a High Risk probably isn't justified.

[RL3AO]

Not enough consensus for an upgrade - I expect it to remain a moderate risk at 0600Z.

They almost never upgrade at 0600 anyway, no matter what the conditions. At least it seems that way.

[cheezyWXguy]

My sister and brother in law used to live in Plano, when they worked at GE in Richardson. Or vice versa. About 15 years ago now. Don't know if it has been improved, but US 75 heading up that way from Dallas was like driving in Houston.


Had a few beers in Plano.


Get the video camera out now, and check the batteries, and bring to the office.

well, since im only 15 that would be hard to do...but the storms should roll in by that late afternoon or evening so ill be long home by then

[cheezyWXguy]

And if they do upgrade to high, they will likely do it right at the initiation of the storms, like how the upgraded to moderate at the last minute on monday...that is fairly common. However, i dont think an upgrade to high risk is likely, unless things really get going. Its certainly not out of the question, but i wouldnt bet on it.

[CrazyC83]

Not enough consensus for an upgrade - I expect it to remain a moderate risk at 0600Z.

They almost never upgrade at 0600 anyway, no matter what the conditions. At least it seems that way.

The last time they initiated at a high risk was on June 7, 2007; the only other times recently that they went high at 0600Z were on March 1, 2007 (although misplaced then and completely revised at 1300Z), April 7, 2006 (actually went high at 1730Z on Day 2!), March 12, 2006 and November 15, 2005.

[RL3AO]

Only one of the last six high risk days have been issued at 0600. And the day that they did, was a semi-bust tornado wise. Three were upgraded at 20z, two at 13z.

EDIT: You posted that already.