Severe weather outbreak? March 30-31

[TxWxFrisco]

You can actually see the dry line backing up on radar and more storms trying to form... Hmm, might get interesting again here in a little while...

[CrazyC83]

Could we indeed be headed for an outbreak? Although there don't appear to have been any significant tornadoes yet...

[Bunkertor]

Don't look now, but a new shower has just formed and moved off the dryline, from Wise into Denton county. Doesn't look too impressive yet, and the airmass may be too worked over by the previous storms for this to explode.

I managed to see it. Fine phenomenon.

[Texas Snowman]

Looks like the severe storm in southern Oklahoma is trying to get an extension going just south of the Red River near Gainesville.

A while ago, it was 90 degrees in Ardmore on I-35 and Gainesville had a dew point in the 70s. Could be some explosive stuff along the Red River this evening.

Tx Snowman

[Texas Snowman]

Oklahoma City NWS has issued a tornado warning for Johnston/Marshall County areas in south central Oklahoma. Have sunshine, temps near 80, and a very strong southerly fetch feeding into the storm from my location about 20 miles south of the cell.

Tx Snowman


-------
Tornado Warning
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
451 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

OKC013-069-095-312215-
/O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0022.000000T0000Z-080331T2215Z/
BRYAN OK-JOHNSTON OK-MARSHALL OK-
451 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN MARSHALL...SOUTHERN JOHNSTON AND NORTHWESTERN BRYAN
COUNTIES...

AT 451 PM CDT...A TORNADO WAS DETECTED BY DOPPLER RADAR 5 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF MADILL...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. ON ITS CURRENT
TRACK...THE TORNADO WILL MOVE VERY CLOSE TO LITTLE CITY.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LITTLE CITY...EASTERN LAKE TEXOMA AROUND 500 PM CDT...
EASTERN LAKE TEXOMA AROUND 505 PM CDT...
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN LAKE TEXOMA AROUND 510 PM CDT...

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO THREAT... THIS STORM LIKELY CONTAINS
DAMAGING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS OR LARGER.

LAT...LON 3421 9654 3404 9648 3400 9680 3410 9681
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 257DEG 27KT 3404 9669

$$

BURKE

[CrazyC83]

Confirmed tornado!

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
502 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

OKC013-069-095-312215-
/O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0022.000000T0000Z-080331T2215Z/
BRYAN OK-JOHNSTON OK-MARSHALL OK-
502 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN MARSHALL...SOUTHERN JOHNSTON AND NORTHWESTERN BRYAN
COUNTIES...

AT 502 PM CDT...LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR
LITTLE CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. PEOPLE NEAR LITTLE CITY
SHOULD TAKE SHELTER NOW!

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE LITTLE CITY...MADILL...
NORTHEASTERN LAKE TEXOMA AND OAKLAND.

THIS TORNADO IS LIKELY OBSCURED BY RAIN AND MAY NOT BE VISIBLE.
ABANDON MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES. IF POSSIBLE... MOVE TO A BASEMENT
OR STORM SHELTER. OTHERWISE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3421 9654 3404 9648 3400 9680 3410 9681
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 246DEG 27KT 3408 9661

$$

BURKE

[Bunkertor]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
511 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

ILC027-133-163-189-312245-
/O.CON.KLSX.TO.W.0024.000000T0000Z-080331T2245Z/
WASHINGTON IL-MONROE IL-ST. CLAIR IL-CLINTON IL-
511 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT FOR WESTERN
CLINTON...EASTERN ST. CLAIR...EASTERN MONROE AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES...

AT 508 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR HECKER...OR ABOUT
NEAR RED BUD...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. RADAR ALSO SHOWED ANOTHER
STRONG CIRCULATION JUST SOUTH OF FREEBURG...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE TORNADO INCLUDE...MARISSA...
LENZBURG...LIVELY GROVE...STONE CHURCH...ELKTON...OAKDALE...CORDES...
POSEN AND NASHVILLE.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT...LON 3822 8916 3823 9002 3850 9003 3870 8949
TIME...MOT...LOC 2211Z 268DEG 44KT 3826 8993

[Texas Snowman]

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_li ... CR&loop=no

You can see the hook echo on this radar shot. Local TV is now reporting that a second circulation may be developing near Nida.

Tx Snowman

[Bunkertor]

Puh, my internet is back on track. 20kB down is a a little to slow.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0526
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0528 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...SERN OK...ARK...SERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 312228Z - 312330Z

LEADING EDGE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS PROGRESSED THROUGH ALL BUT
EXTREME ERN PORTIONS OF WW149. STRONG SHEAR AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS RESIDES ACROSS MOST OF AR...INCLUDING NERN TX AND SERN MO.
THIS REGION WILL NEED A TORNADO WATCH SOON TO ACCOMMODATE INCREASING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND THREAT FOR TORNADOES.

..DARROW.. 03/31/2008


ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...FWD...

33549553 37549006 35708979 32949388

[CrazyC83]

SEL0

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 150
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
615 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

A LARGE PART OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS
SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 615 PM UNTIL
100 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI TO 55 MILES WEST OF TEXARKANA ARKANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 147...WW 148...WW 149...

DISCUSSION...WELL DEVELOPED SEVERE SQUALL LINE FROM S CENTRAL MO
INTO SERN OK EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E/SE THRU THE EVENING. WITH MDT
INSTABILITY...50-60KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SUPERCELLS AND BOW
STRUCTURES EXPECTED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE.
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL AND LINEAR/BOW
SEGMENTS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...HALES


SEL0

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 150
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
615 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

A LARGE PART OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS
SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 615 PM UNTIL
100 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI TO 55 MILES WEST OF TEXARKANA ARKANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 147...WW 148...WW 149...

DISCUSSION...WELL DEVELOPED SEVERE SQUALL LINE FROM S CENTRAL MO
INTO SERN OK EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E/SE THRU THE EVENING. WITH MDT
INSTABILITY...50-60KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SUPERCELLS AND BOW
STRUCTURES EXPECTED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE.
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL AND LINEAR/BOW
SEGMENTS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...HALES


Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

WOUS64 KWNS 312309
WOU0

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 150
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
615 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

TORNADO WATCH 150 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ARC013-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-037-039-045-051-053-055-057-
059-061-063-067-069-073-075-081-085-091-093-097-099-103-105-109-
111-113-117-119-121-125-133-145-147-010600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0150.080331T2315Z-080401T0600Z/

AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CALHOUN CLARK CLAY
CLEBURNE CLEVELAND COLUMBIA
CONWAY CRAIGHEAD CROSS
DALLAS FAULKNER GARLAND
GRANT GREENE HEMPSTEAD
HOT SPRING HOWARD INDEPENDENCE
JACKSON JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE
LAWRENCE LITTLE RIVER LONOKE
MILLER MISSISSIPPI MONTGOMERY
NEVADA OUACHITA PERRY
PIKE POINSETT POLK
PRAIRIE PULASKI RANDOLPH
SALINE SEVIER WHITE
WOODRUFF


MOC017-023-031-035-069-143-155-157-181-201-207-223-010600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0150.080331T2315Z-080401T0600Z/

MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
CARTER DUNKLIN NEW MADRID
PEMISCOT PERRY RIPLEY
SCOTT STODDARD WAYNE


OKC089-010600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0150.080331T2315Z-080401T0600Z/

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

MCCURTAIN


TXC037-063-067-159-343-387-449-010600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0150.080331T2315Z-080401T0600Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BOWIE CAMP CASS
FRANKLIN MORRIS RED RIVER
TITUS


ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...PAH...MEG...





Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

SAW0
WW 150 TORNADO AR MO OK TX 312315Z - 010600Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF LINE..
55ENE POF/POPLAR BLUFF MO/ - 55W TXK/TEXARKANA AR/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM EITHER SIDE /48SE FAM - 44W TXK/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

LAT...LON 36348894 32729437 34159555 37799016

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.


Watch 150 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.

[wx247]

Picture of some of the damage in Buffalo, MO.




We had some minor damage here in town, too.

A semi was blown off the road, the Nazarene church had some roof damage, and a convenience store had windows blown out as well as some roof damage.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I know SPC has SETX in a Slight on the SWODY2, but I'm not sure that will be the case when the SWODY1 comes out in 2 hours.

I kind of hope I'm wrong, but the WRF, the older NAM model, the ETA and the NGM do not show much rain tomorrow around my yard.

Official NWS forecast as of 10:30pm

Tuesday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Some of the storms could be severe. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph.

Enough CAPE, around 1000 J/Kg in HOU area, closer to 1500 J/Kg a little further North early afternoon, but no wind at all to speak of in the bottom 4 km of the atmosphere, and 20 knot flow at 500 mb, which suggests whatever storms do fire on the front will dump their cool and stable outflow pretty much where they sit, and choke themselves off.


Well, on further review, (checked Utah U wx site, which doesn't have skew-T forecasts like NIU, but does have 3 hour intervals) while widespread severe still looks improbable, and WRF rainfall is meager, at 4 pm there will be a corridor of CAPE near 2000 J/KG along US 59 SW of HOU (MUCAPE, not SBCAPE, but I suspect it is almost the same in this case), so while the isolated storms will be few, far between and short lived, one or two could briefly be rambunctious.



But a tenth or so of rain means more work for the sprinkler on Saturday. Unless my house gets under one of those brief but lively storms.