Severe weather outbreak? March 30-31

[Ed Mahmoud]

Check out the DFW radar, those storms are popping up very, very, fast!

[CrazyC83]

They almost should have gone PDS with that watch...also the MDT should be expanded (at least south) at 2000Z...

[CrazyC83]

Radar already showing golf ball size (or larger) hail with the Texas storms - only a matter of time before they go tornadic.

[RL3AO]

Those things came out of nowhere. But they are close together so that may limit the northern cells.

[Bunkertor]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0522
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0109 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO...WRN IL...FAR SERN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 311809Z - 312015Z

CONDITIONS ARE BEING MONITORED OVER NRN MO...SERN IA AND WRN IL FOR
AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. A TORNADO WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW OVER NWRN MO WITH WARM FRONT
EXTENDING NEWD INTO NRN IL. A COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN WAS IN PLACE
OVER THE WARM SECTOR...WITH RELATIVELY STABLE OUTFLOW ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL MO FROM ONGOING CONVECTION. AN UPPER JET MAX AND DRY SLOT
WAS SPREADING NEWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN KS AND WRN MO AT
18Z...WITH CLEARING OCCURRING. TO THE E...CIRRUS STILL HAMPERED
HEATING ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S EXTENDED FROM NERN KS
ACROSS NRN MO INTO WRN IL.

AREA WIND PROFILERS SHOW LARGE HODOGRAPHS AND SRH VALUES WHICH ARE
QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. MODIFIED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S ALONG WITH A
DEWPOINT IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 WOULD YIELD SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY AND A TORNADO THREAT. SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 18Z SHOWED A
POCKET OF TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 OVER NWRN MO...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS
INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 50S.

GIVEN FAVORABLE LARGE AND MESOSCALE FORCING AND EXTREME SHEAR
PROFILES...ANY STORM THAT FORMS OVER NWRN MO AND MOVES NEWD WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL.

..JEWELL.. 03/31/2008


ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

[RL3AO]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
246 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN OKFUSKEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
SOUTHERN OKMULGEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHWESTERN MCINTOSH COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 330 PM CDT

* AT 243 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 3 MILES EAST OF
WELEETKA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...HENRYETTA...
DEWAR...SCHULTER...GRAYSON AND HOFFMAN.

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 312000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

VALID 312000Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS MO/AR OZARKS TO
WRN/NRN AR...ERN OK...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NERN TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM SRN LM TO
S-CENTRAL TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE PATTERN EVIDENT DOWNSTREAM FROM LARGE SCALE
TROUGH OVER WRN CONUS. THREE MOST PERTINENT SHORTWAVES FOR THIS
FCST ARE --
1. TROUGH NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SERN NM AND W
TX...WHICH IS FCST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN TX TOWARD
LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD.
2. PERTURBATION NOW OVER CENTRAL PLAINS...FCST TO EJECT ENEWD TOWARD
UPPER GREAT LAKES AND WEAKEN SOMEWHAT THROUGH REMAINDER
PERIOD...AHEAD OF
3. COMPACT BUT STG TROUGH NOW EVIDENT OVER WY...WHICH SHOULD MOVE
EWD ACROSS NEB TO IA BY 1/12Z.

ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE -- NOW ANALYZED OVER S-CENTRAL IA...IS FCST
TO CONTINUE DEEPENING AND MOVE NEWD TOWARD LM AS MIDLEVEL WAVES
APPROACH. TRAILING COLD FRONT -- ANALYZED FROM NWRN MO SWWD ACROSS
WRN OK -- SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS LOWER OH VALLEY AND MUCH OF
IL/INDIANA...SEWD ACROSS AR AND NE TX...AND SWD ACROSS
NWRN/N-CENTRAL TX...BY END OF PERIOD. DRYLINE -- INITIALLY DRAWN
FROM SW OK SWWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL TX -- WILL MOVE EWD FOR ANOTHER
COUPLE HOURS OVER N-CENTRAL TX...THEN SHOULD BECOME QUASISTATIONARY
FROM WRN PORTIONS N-CENTRAL TX SWWD ACROSS EDWARDS PLATEAU THROUGH
MUCH OF EVENING...PERHAPS RETREATING WWD OVER SRN EDWARDS
PLATEAU/RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. WARM FRONT OVER SERN IA AND
NWRN IL SHOULD LIFT NEWD ACROSS ERN IA...NRN IL...INDIANA AND LOWER
MI BY END OF PERIOD.

...MO TO SRN PLAINS...
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS -- INCLUDING GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING HAIL...SVR GUSTS AND TORNADOES --
WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS CATEGORICAL MDT RISK AREA THROUGH EVENING
HOURS. REF WW 146/147 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR
NEAR-TERM THREAT FROM IL-OK. REF WW 148 FOR NOWCAST SVR THREAT OVER
SRN OK AND NRN/CENTRAL TX.

SVR POTENTIAL MAY BUILD FURTHER SWD ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL TX
THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON AS STG HEATING...COMBINED WITH WEAKENING
CINH AND CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF DRYLINE...SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY NOT BE AS
GREAT OVER S-CENTRAL TX AS FARTHER N...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE ACROSS THIS REGION BENEATH MID/UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
SPEED MAX.

...MID MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY...LOWER GREAT LAKES REGIONS...
SVR TSTMS ALSO MAY DEVELOP NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS NRN MO AND
SRN IA N OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE BAND...E OF COLD FRONT AND S OF WARM
FRONT...IN ZONE OF SFC HEATING AND ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. BY
AROUND 06Z...BAND OF CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME ORGANIZED FROM INDIANA
AND IL SWWD ACROSS AR...SHIFTING EWD THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GREATER WITH SWD EXTENT...WHILE
DEEP-LAYER KINEMATIC PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE ALONG VIRTUALLY ITS
ENTIRE LENGTH. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING GUSTS...WITH ISOLATED
HAIL POSSIBLE...AND HAIL POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT GREATER ACROSS MID MS
VALLEY REGION THAN FARTHER NE. LINE SHOULD REACH OH...KY...TN AND
NRN MS BY 12Z...MAINTAINING AT LEAST MRGL WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL. SVR
PROBABILITIES DIMINISH WITH EWD EXTENT AND WITH TIME
OVERNIGHT...GIVEN NOCTURNAL NEAR-SFC COOLING...ALTHOUGH STG/ELEVATED
WAA REGIME WILL SUPPORT SOME WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS OH AND WRN
PORTIONS TN/KY.

..EDWARDS.. 03/31/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 2008Z (4:08PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0524
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN OK INTO WRN/NRN AR AND SRN MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 146...

VALID 312004Z - 312030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 146 CONTINUES.

NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR MUCH OF ERN OK INTO
WRN/NRN AR AND SRN MO.

AT 20Z...REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A BROKEN LINE OF SEVERE TSTMS
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MO SWWD INTO FAR NWRN AR AND NERN TO SRN OK.
AIR MASS ALONG AND EAST OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE
OVER SRN OK WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING INTO SRN/CENTRAL MO.
GIVEN THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 50 KT...EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES AND SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN
LIKELY AS THE LINE OF ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EWD LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG AXIS OF SWLY LLJ WHICH
EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL TX TO SRN MO WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR TORNADOES. STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL ALSO SUPPORT LARGE HAIL.

..PETERS.. 03/31/2008


ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...OUN...

38309229 38249160 37209106 36289175 35349269 34699373
34499487 34599592 34369720 35149625 36559420 37059377

[Ed Mahmoud]

Nice hook echo as tornado tracks on Johnson and Tarrant county line...

[Bunkertor]

604
WFUS54 KFWD 312002
TORFWD
TXC251-439-312045-
/O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0005.080331T2002Z-080331T2045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
302 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN TARRANT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT

* AT 302 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO NEAR GODLEY..MOVING EAST AT 38 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
JOSHUA BY 310 PM CDT...
CROWLEY AND KEENE BY 315 PM CDT...
BRIAROAKS AND BURLESON BY 320 PM CDT...
RENDON AND ALVARADO BY 325 PM CDT...
MANSFIELD AND VENUS BY 335 PM CDT...

TAKE COVER IN A BASEMENT...OR ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME IN AN
INTERIOR CLOSET OR BATHROOM. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS FOR COVER.

IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY
WITH THIS STORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT MONDAY EVENING FOR
EASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3252 9762 3268 9704 3257 9703 3256 9702
3255 9710 3239 9708 3238 9710 3239 9762
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 255DEG 33KT 3246 9748

[Ed Mahmoud]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
333 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL SAN SABA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 328 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR SAN SABA...
MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. HAIL UP TO NICKELS IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
US-190 NEAR THE SAN SABA-LAMPASSES COUNTY LINE BY 350 PM CDT...
BEND BY 400 PM CDT...

[Ed Mahmoud]

I think we all know what happened to the nearby Spanish Mission, the Mision Santa Cruz de San Sabá...





"The Destruction of Mission San Sabá in the Province of Texas and the Martyrdom of the Fathers Alonso de Terreros, Jose Santiesteban,"

[Ed Mahmoud]

The Tarrant county tornado is about to move into Dallas and Ellis Counties, and radar indicates a new tornado in Denton County.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I think I can see the dry line in Wise and Parker counties on the base reflectivity radar, and it is barely moving. If these storms can clear out of the Metroplex soon enough, with a couple more hours of decent sunshine left in the day, more storms could develop.

[Bunkertor]

What does the dryline look like ? I´ve never seen it.

[Ed Mahmoud]

What does the dryline look like ? I´ve never seen it.

On this radar image loop,look at the thin blue linear feature, that might actually be beginning to retreat slightly towards the West.


This is where desert air from Mexico, hot and dry, on a West or Southwest wind, meets warm humid air from the South or Southeast. There is convergence along the dryline, which sometimes initiates thunderstorms.

It sort of acts like a cold front, everyone knows warm air is more buoyant than cold air, but humid air, because it contains more water vapor (MW=18) and less diatomic oxygen and nitrogen than dry air, is more buoyant than dry air.

[TxWxFrisco]

Much excitement here in Frisco, Tx.!

Just had a tornado warning with sirens and a confirmed (so says the local met on ch. 8) tornado on the ground about 3 miles south/west of my house moving north east...

It apparetly disapated before it got to my neighborhood but I did get to snap a pick of the wall cloud as it passed just to the west of my house...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Maybe the excitement isn't over yet.

Check out what 30 minutes of sunshine have done to the dry line back in Wise and Parker Counties...nothing breaking the cap yet, but the sun should be bright for another hour...

.

[Ed Mahmoud]

What does the dryline look like ? I´ve never seen it.

On this radar image loop,look at the thin blue linear feature, that might actually be beginning to retreat slightly towards the West.


This is where desert air from Mexico, hot and dry, on a West or Southwest wind, meets warm humid air from the South or Southeast. There is convergence along the dryline, which sometimes initiates thunderstorms.

It sort of acts like a cold front, everyone knows warm air is more buoyant than cold air, but humid air, because it contains more water vapor (MW=18) and less diatomic oxygen and nitrogen than dry air, is more buoyant than dry air.

Don't look now, but a new shower has just formed and moved off the dryline, from Wise into Denton county. Doesn't look too impressive yet, and the airmass may be too worked over by the previous storms for this to explode.

[Bunkertor]

Maybe the excitement isn't over yet.

Check out what 30 minutes of sunshine have done to the dry line back in Wise and Parker but the sun should be bright for another hour...

This sounds to me like a Bram Stoker movie, Nospheratu or something...