Severe weather outbreak? March 30-31
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Two supercells W of Oklahoma City are sure moving slowly! Really strongly backed winds from low to mid-levels along with a bullseye of surface vorticity right around the convergence boundary helping to keep these storms spinning. Don't know if they'll make it into the city, but the thought of two very slow moving tornadic supercells going through populated areas would definitely be a very bad thing. Low level helicity remains very strong ahead of the supercells, but instability is obviously decreasing with the loss of surface heating. The latter may win out given these cells are moving so slowly. Additionally, the two cells may start interfering with one another.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SPC AC 310601
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
OK/NORTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHWEST MO/WESTERN AR...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST...
...SYNOPSIS...
POTENT UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW SHOULD ADVANCE
NORTHEASTWARD/GRADUALLY DEEPEN FROM EASTERN KS TOWARD THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHILE A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN OK/NORTH TX. WITH THE OK/TX
DRYLINE AND SOUTHEAST ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MISSOURI
VALLEY SERVING AS FOCI...IT APPEARS A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT WILL UNFOLD THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX VICINITY INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY/MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS.
...MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OK AND TX INTO MO/SOUTHEAST KS AND THE
ARKLATEX VICINITY...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
STATES...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON
ACROSS EASTERN OK/NORTHEAST TX INTO FAR SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST MO.
QUASI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY AMIDST 50 KT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
MID LEVEL FLOW...ORIENTED LARGELY NORMAL TO THE EXPECTED DRYLINE
POSITION FROM EAST CENTRAL OK INTO NORTH TX. WITH WIDESPREAD MIDDLE
TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE
TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH 1500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE SHOULD SUPPORT A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF LARGE HAIL /SOME SIGNIFICANT/. A FEW
TORNADOES APPEAR LIKELY AS WELL ACROSS EASTERN OK/NORTHEAST TX AND
THE ADJACENT ARKLATEX VICINITY...OWING TO A RELATIVELY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AND CURVED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...LIKELY TO BE AIDED
BY BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW PROGGED
TO DEVELOP NEAR THE RED RIVER DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
...EASTERN IA/MUCH OF IL INTO SOUTHERN WI/WESTERN INDIANA...
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT WITH NORTH/NORTHEAST EXTENT
ACROSS THE MIDDLE TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION IS MUCH MORE CONDITIONAL/UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
OVERALL...THE MODEST NATURE OF THE EXPECTED BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE ISOLATED/LOWER
PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT. BUT IN SPITE OF 00Z MODELS/21Z SREF
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING RATHER MEAGER INSTABILITY /LESS THAN 500 J/KG
MLCAPE/ INTO EASTERN IA/MUCH OF IL AND SOUTHERN WI/WESTERN
INDIANA...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW TRACK AND/OR IN VICINITY OF
NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONT. PROVIDED SUFFICIENT HEATING AND AT
LEAST MARGINAL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...STRONG FLOW FIELDS WOULD
SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK...POTENTIALLY AS FAR NORTH AS
NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN WI.
..GUYER/SMITH.. 03/31/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1149Z (7:49AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
OK/NORTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHWEST MO/WESTERN AR...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST...
...SYNOPSIS...
POTENT UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW SHOULD ADVANCE
NORTHEASTWARD/GRADUALLY DEEPEN FROM EASTERN KS TOWARD THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHILE A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN OK/NORTH TX. WITH THE OK/TX
DRYLINE AND SOUTHEAST ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MISSOURI
VALLEY SERVING AS FOCI...IT APPEARS A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT WILL UNFOLD THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX VICINITY INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY/MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS.
...MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OK AND TX INTO MO/SOUTHEAST KS AND THE
ARKLATEX VICINITY...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
STATES...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON
ACROSS EASTERN OK/NORTHEAST TX INTO FAR SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST MO.
QUASI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY AMIDST 50 KT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
MID LEVEL FLOW...ORIENTED LARGELY NORMAL TO THE EXPECTED DRYLINE
POSITION FROM EAST CENTRAL OK INTO NORTH TX. WITH WIDESPREAD MIDDLE
TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE
TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH 1500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE SHOULD SUPPORT A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF LARGE HAIL /SOME SIGNIFICANT/. A FEW
TORNADOES APPEAR LIKELY AS WELL ACROSS EASTERN OK/NORTHEAST TX AND
THE ADJACENT ARKLATEX VICINITY...OWING TO A RELATIVELY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AND CURVED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...LIKELY TO BE AIDED
BY BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW PROGGED
TO DEVELOP NEAR THE RED RIVER DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
...EASTERN IA/MUCH OF IL INTO SOUTHERN WI/WESTERN INDIANA...
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT WITH NORTH/NORTHEAST EXTENT
ACROSS THE MIDDLE TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION IS MUCH MORE CONDITIONAL/UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
OVERALL...THE MODEST NATURE OF THE EXPECTED BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE ISOLATED/LOWER
PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT. BUT IN SPITE OF 00Z MODELS/21Z SREF
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING RATHER MEAGER INSTABILITY /LESS THAN 500 J/KG
MLCAPE/ INTO EASTERN IA/MUCH OF IL AND SOUTHERN WI/WESTERN
INDIANA...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW TRACK AND/OR IN VICINITY OF
NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONT. PROVIDED SUFFICIENT HEATING AND AT
LEAST MARGINAL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...STRONG FLOW FIELDS WOULD
SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK...POTENTIALLY AS FAR NORTH AS
NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN WI.
..GUYER/SMITH.. 03/31/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1149Z (7:49AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SPC AC 311257
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008
VALID 311300Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY FOR ERN OK...SW MO...WRN
AR...AND NE TX...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK...FROM
CENTRAL TX NEWD TO SE IA/IL...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE CYCLONE NOW IN KS WILL DEVELOP NEWD ALONG A RETREATING
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO SRN IA BY MIDDAY...EXTREME SW WI THIS
EVENING...AND NRN LOWER MI LATE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE PRIMARY
MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW EJECTING NEWD FROM CO/NM. SURFACE ANALYSES
CONFIRM THAT THE RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL
LIKELY BE CONFINED TO AREAS FROM IL/MO/AR/LA WWD INTO OK/TX...WITH
THE ERN EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE LIMITED BY TRAJECTORIES EMANATING
FROM WITHIN THE ERN US SURFACE RIDGE. THESE RELATIVELY DRIER
LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES...ALONG WITH THE LINGERING INFLUENCE OF
YESTERDAY/S CONVECTION ACROSS AR/LA/E TX AND THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS IN MO/IA AND NE OK...CAST DOUBT ON THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY FROM CENTRAL MO NEWD TO SE
IA/IL/SRN WI. MEANWHILE...SUBSTANTIALLY GREATER INSTABILITY APPEARS
LIKELY TODAY FROM CENTRAL/ERN OK SWD INTO TX ALONG THE AXIS OF 65-70
F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS...ALONG WITH THE GREATER SEVERE STORM
RISK.
...OK/SW MO/AR/CENTRAL AND ERN TX TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
LATEST OBSERVED DATA/CONVECTIVE TRENDS...AND THE MAJORITY OF THE
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE...SUGGEST THAT THE PRIMARY SEVERE STORM
THREAT CORRIDOR TODAY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND E
OF I-44 IN MO/OK/WRN AR...WITH A MORE ISOLATED THREAT E OF I-35 IN
SRN OK/TX. THE RESIDUAL PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AN
UNCONTAMINATED/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN CO-LOCATED TODAY
FROM CENTRAL/ERN OK SWWD INTO CENTRAL/E TX...WHERE MLCAPE VALUES
SHOULD RANGE FROM 1500-3000 J/KG. SOME LOW-LEVEL WARMING/MOISTENING
IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS AT LEAST WRN AR INTO SW/CENTRAL MO ON THE
SRN FRINGE OF THIS MORNING/S CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.
EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY MID MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD INTO CENTRAL/NE OK...AND
NE OF THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT TRIPLE POINT IN CENTRAL OK. THIS
BOUNDARY INTERSECTION SHOULD DEVELOP SWD INTO N TX OVERNIGHT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. OTHER THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR SE OF THE FRONT AND E OF THE DRYLINE DURING
THE DAY FROM NE TX NWD ACROSS ERN OK/WRN AR INTO MO...AND ALONG THE
RESIDUAL BOUNDARY WITH THE NE OK STORMS. THE COMBINATION OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF AT LEAST 50 KT WILL
SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE LARGER CONVECTIVE BAND. THE
MORE INTENSE/DISCRETE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE
HAIL AND A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO THROUGH THIS EVENING...GIVEN A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND EFFECTIVE SRH AOA 250-300 M2/S2. THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR DEVELOPS
NEWD AWAY FROM THE INSTABILITY AXIS.
...NRN MO/SE IA/IL/SRN WI TODAY...
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK...AS A RESULT OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION IN NE
OK/SE KS/SW MO...AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR
MASS FROM ERN AR/MO EWD. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL TEND TO LIMIT
SURFACE HEATING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS SHOULD RANGE FROM 58-62 F. STILL...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
STRONG AND SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IF THE SURFACE CAN
WARM A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED NEAR THE WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON.
...CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL TX...WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER
MID LEVEL FLOW. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE
HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT.
..THOMPSON/SMITH.. 03/31/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1302Z (9:02AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008
VALID 311300Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY FOR ERN OK...SW MO...WRN
AR...AND NE TX...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK...FROM
CENTRAL TX NEWD TO SE IA/IL...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE CYCLONE NOW IN KS WILL DEVELOP NEWD ALONG A RETREATING
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO SRN IA BY MIDDAY...EXTREME SW WI THIS
EVENING...AND NRN LOWER MI LATE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE PRIMARY
MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW EJECTING NEWD FROM CO/NM. SURFACE ANALYSES
CONFIRM THAT THE RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL
LIKELY BE CONFINED TO AREAS FROM IL/MO/AR/LA WWD INTO OK/TX...WITH
THE ERN EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE LIMITED BY TRAJECTORIES EMANATING
FROM WITHIN THE ERN US SURFACE RIDGE. THESE RELATIVELY DRIER
LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES...ALONG WITH THE LINGERING INFLUENCE OF
YESTERDAY/S CONVECTION ACROSS AR/LA/E TX AND THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS IN MO/IA AND NE OK...CAST DOUBT ON THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY FROM CENTRAL MO NEWD TO SE
IA/IL/SRN WI. MEANWHILE...SUBSTANTIALLY GREATER INSTABILITY APPEARS
LIKELY TODAY FROM CENTRAL/ERN OK SWD INTO TX ALONG THE AXIS OF 65-70
F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS...ALONG WITH THE GREATER SEVERE STORM
RISK.
...OK/SW MO/AR/CENTRAL AND ERN TX TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
LATEST OBSERVED DATA/CONVECTIVE TRENDS...AND THE MAJORITY OF THE
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE...SUGGEST THAT THE PRIMARY SEVERE STORM
THREAT CORRIDOR TODAY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND E
OF I-44 IN MO/OK/WRN AR...WITH A MORE ISOLATED THREAT E OF I-35 IN
SRN OK/TX. THE RESIDUAL PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AN
UNCONTAMINATED/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN CO-LOCATED TODAY
FROM CENTRAL/ERN OK SWWD INTO CENTRAL/E TX...WHERE MLCAPE VALUES
SHOULD RANGE FROM 1500-3000 J/KG. SOME LOW-LEVEL WARMING/MOISTENING
IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS AT LEAST WRN AR INTO SW/CENTRAL MO ON THE
SRN FRINGE OF THIS MORNING/S CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.
EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY MID MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD INTO CENTRAL/NE OK...AND
NE OF THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT TRIPLE POINT IN CENTRAL OK. THIS
BOUNDARY INTERSECTION SHOULD DEVELOP SWD INTO N TX OVERNIGHT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. OTHER THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR SE OF THE FRONT AND E OF THE DRYLINE DURING
THE DAY FROM NE TX NWD ACROSS ERN OK/WRN AR INTO MO...AND ALONG THE
RESIDUAL BOUNDARY WITH THE NE OK STORMS. THE COMBINATION OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF AT LEAST 50 KT WILL
SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE LARGER CONVECTIVE BAND. THE
MORE INTENSE/DISCRETE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE
HAIL AND A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO THROUGH THIS EVENING...GIVEN A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND EFFECTIVE SRH AOA 250-300 M2/S2. THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR DEVELOPS
NEWD AWAY FROM THE INSTABILITY AXIS.
...NRN MO/SE IA/IL/SRN WI TODAY...
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK...AS A RESULT OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION IN NE
OK/SE KS/SW MO...AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR
MASS FROM ERN AR/MO EWD. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL TEND TO LIMIT
SURFACE HEATING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS SHOULD RANGE FROM 58-62 F. STILL...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
STRONG AND SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IF THE SURFACE CAN
WARM A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED NEAR THE WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON.
...CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL TX...WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER
MID LEVEL FLOW. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE
HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT.
..THOMPSON/SMITH.. 03/31/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1302Z (9:02AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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Ed Mahmoud
Re: Severe weather outbreak? March 30-31
SWODY1 update, hot and juicy off the wires...
Relevant snip
THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE
CQB 25 NNW JLN 35 NNE SGF 40 SSW TBN 35 NNE RUE 40 NE TXK 35 NNW TYR
30 NNW DAL 15 SSW ADM 30 NE CQB.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW
HOU 35 WNW NIR 40 W HDO 30 NNE JCT 25 E ABI 40 ENE CSM 20 W TOP 20 W
LWD 25 N LWD 15 W DBQ 20 NW JVL 15 E MKE 20 N BEH 35 SSE SBN 25 WSW
BMG PAH 60 WSW MEM 35 SSW ELD 35 W IER 40 WNW HOU.
Relevant snip
...OK/SW MO/AR/CENTRAL AND ERN TX TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
LATEST OBSERVED DATA/CONVECTIVE TRENDS...AND THE MAJORITY OF THE
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE...SUGGEST THAT THE PRIMARY SEVERE STORM
THREAT CORRIDOR TODAY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND E
OF I-44 IN MO/OK/WRN AR...WITH A MORE ISOLATED THREAT E OF I-35 IN
SRN OK/TX. THE RESIDUAL PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AN
UNCONTAMINATED/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN CO-LOCATED TODAY
FROM CENTRAL/ERN OK SWWD INTO CENTRAL/E TX...WHERE MLCAPE VALUES
SHOULD RANGE FROM 1500-3000 J/KG. SOME LOW-LEVEL WARMING/MOISTENING IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS AT LEAST WRN AR INTO SW/CENTRAL MO ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THIS MORNING/S CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.
EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY MID MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD INTO CENTRAL/NE OK...AND
NE OF THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT TRIPLE POINT IN CENTRAL OK. THIS
BOUNDARY INTERSECTION SHOULD DEVELOP SWD INTO N TX OVERNIGHT...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. OTHER THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR SE OF THE FRONT AND E OF THE DRYLINE DURING
THE DAY FROM NE TX NWD ACROSS ERN OK/WRN AR INTO MO...AND ALONG THE
RESIDUAL BOUNDARY WITH THE NE OK STORMS. THE COMBINATION OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF AT LEAST 50 KT WILL
SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE LARGER CONVECTIVE BAND. THE MORE INTENSE/DISCRETE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO THROUGH THIS EVENING...GIVEN A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND EFFECTIVE SRH AOA 250-300 M2/S2. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR DEVELOPS NEWD AWAY FROM THE INSTABILITY AXIS.
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Re: Severe weather outbreak? March 30-31
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
907 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008
MOC097-145-311415-
/O.CON.KSGF.TO.W.0080.000000T0000Z-080331T1415Z/
JASPER MO-NEWTON MO-
907 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 AM CDT FOR EASTERN
JASPER AND NORTHEASTERN NEWTON COUNTIES...
AT 905 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO NEAR FIDELITY...OR 6 MILES SOUTH OF CARTHAGE...
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.
THIS TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SARCOXIE BY 915 AM CDT.
THE TOWNS OF REEDS AND AVILLA ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO. THIS
ALSO INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 14 AND 31.
IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE.
WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
907 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008
MOC097-145-311415-
/O.CON.KSGF.TO.W.0080.000000T0000Z-080331T1415Z/
JASPER MO-NEWTON MO-
907 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 AM CDT FOR EASTERN
JASPER AND NORTHEASTERN NEWTON COUNTIES...
AT 905 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO NEAR FIDELITY...OR 6 MILES SOUTH OF CARTHAGE...
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.
THIS TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SARCOXIE BY 915 AM CDT.
THE TOWNS OF REEDS AND AVILLA ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO. THIS
ALSO INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 14 AND 31.
IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE.
WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 146
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
845 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 845 AM UNTIL 400
PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTH OF CHANDLER
OKLAHOMA TO 75 MILES NORTH OF SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 145...
DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF SEVERE/SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING
THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OK AND SOUTHWEST MO. OTHER
STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM ON THE COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OK. ALL
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MEANWHILE...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE
QUITE STRONG /SRH AOA 350 M2/S2/ SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES IN STRONGER CELLS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.
...HART
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 146
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
845 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 845 AM UNTIL 400
PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTH OF CHANDLER
OKLAHOMA TO 75 MILES NORTH OF SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 145...
DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF SEVERE/SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING
THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OK AND SOUTHWEST MO. OTHER
STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM ON THE COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OK. ALL
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MEANWHILE...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE
QUITE STRONG /SRH AOA 350 M2/S2/ SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES IN STRONGER CELLS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.
...HART
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
WOUS64 KWNS 311340
WOU6
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 146
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
845 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008
TORNADO WATCH 146 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
ARC007-015-033-087-143-312100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0146.080331T1345Z-080331T2100Z/
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD
MADISON WASHINGTON
KSC011-019-021-035-037-049-099-125-133-205-312100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0146.080331T1345Z-080331T2100Z/
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOURBON CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE
COWLEY CRAWFORD ELK
LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO
WILSON
MOC009-011-015-029-039-043-057-059-067-077-085-097-105-109-119-
125-131-141-145-161-167-169-185-209-213-215-217-225-229-
312100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0146.080331T1345Z-080331T2100Z/
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BARTON BENTON
CAMDEN CEDAR CHRISTIAN
DADE DALLAS DOUGLAS
GREENE HICKORY JASPER
LACLEDE LAWRENCE MARIES
MCDONALD MILLER MORGAN
NEWTON PHELPS POLK
PULASKI ST. CLAIR STONE
TANEY TEXAS VERNON
WEBSTER WRIGHT
OKC001-015-017-021-027-029-035-037-041-047-049-051-061-063-071-
073-077-081-083-087-091-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-
117-119-121-123-125-131-133-135-137-143-145-147-312100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0146.080331T1345Z-080331T2100Z/
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CADDO CANADIAN
CHEROKEE CLEVELAND COAL
CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE
GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY
HASKELL HUGHES KAY
KINGFISHER LATIMER LINCOLN
LOGAN MAYES MCCLAIN
MCINTOSH MURRAY MUSKOGEE
NOBLE NOWATA OKFUSKEE
OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE OSAGE
OTTAWA PAWNEE PAYNE
PITTSBURG PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE
ROGERS SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH
STEPHENS TULSA WAGONER
WASHINGTON
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...SGF...ICT...
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 146 TORNADO AR KS MO OK 311345Z - 312100Z
AXIS..105 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
50S CQB/CHANDLER OK/ - 75N SGF/SPRINGFIELD MO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 90NM E/W /44ESE OKC - 52E BUM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.
LAT...LON 34979866 38299531 38299144 34979497
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 146 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 146
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
845 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 845 AM UNTIL 400
PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTH OF CHANDLER
OKLAHOMA TO 75 MILES NORTH OF SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 145...
DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF SEVERE/SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING
THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OK AND SOUTHWEST MO. OTHER
STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM ON THE COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OK. ALL
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MEANWHILE...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE
QUITE STRONG /SRH AOA 350 M2/S2/ SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES IN STRONGER CELLS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.
...HART
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 146
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
845 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 845 AM UNTIL 400
PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTH OF CHANDLER
OKLAHOMA TO 75 MILES NORTH OF SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 145...
DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF SEVERE/SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING
THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OK AND SOUTHWEST MO. OTHER
STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM ON THE COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OK. ALL
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MEANWHILE...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE
QUITE STRONG /SRH AOA 350 M2/S2/ SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES IN STRONGER CELLS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.
...HART
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
WOUS64 KWNS 311340
WOU6
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 146
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
845 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008
TORNADO WATCH 146 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
ARC007-015-033-087-143-312100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0146.080331T1345Z-080331T2100Z/
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD
MADISON WASHINGTON
KSC011-019-021-035-037-049-099-125-133-205-312100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0146.080331T1345Z-080331T2100Z/
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOURBON CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE
COWLEY CRAWFORD ELK
LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO
WILSON
MOC009-011-015-029-039-043-057-059-067-077-085-097-105-109-119-
125-131-141-145-161-167-169-185-209-213-215-217-225-229-
312100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0146.080331T1345Z-080331T2100Z/
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BARTON BENTON
CAMDEN CEDAR CHRISTIAN
DADE DALLAS DOUGLAS
GREENE HICKORY JASPER
LACLEDE LAWRENCE MARIES
MCDONALD MILLER MORGAN
NEWTON PHELPS POLK
PULASKI ST. CLAIR STONE
TANEY TEXAS VERNON
WEBSTER WRIGHT
OKC001-015-017-021-027-029-035-037-041-047-049-051-061-063-071-
073-077-081-083-087-091-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-
117-119-121-123-125-131-133-135-137-143-145-147-312100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0146.080331T1345Z-080331T2100Z/
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CADDO CANADIAN
CHEROKEE CLEVELAND COAL
CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE
GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY
HASKELL HUGHES KAY
KINGFISHER LATIMER LINCOLN
LOGAN MAYES MCCLAIN
MCINTOSH MURRAY MUSKOGEE
NOBLE NOWATA OKFUSKEE
OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE OSAGE
OTTAWA PAWNEE PAYNE
PITTSBURG PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE
ROGERS SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH
STEPHENS TULSA WAGONER
WASHINGTON
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...SGF...ICT...
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 146 TORNADO AR KS MO OK 311345Z - 312100Z
AXIS..105 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
50S CQB/CHANDLER OK/ - 75N SGF/SPRINGFIELD MO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 90NM E/W /44ESE OKC - 52E BUM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.
LAT...LON 34979866 38299531 38299144 34979497
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 146 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
I'm starting to sense a virtual repeat of January 7th, with the warm air and extreme shear from the screaming jet stream - could it overpower the limited instability? That is what makes this a nightmare to forecast...almost any cell can become tornadic, but will we get enough severe development?
0 likes
Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:Pretty big numbers on that watch, only a couple notches below warranting a PDS (generally I think of a PDS being warranted when overall tornado threat is 70% or higher AND the significant tornado threat is 50% or higher - this one is 60/40)...
60/40 which office has submitted this numbers ?
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Re:
Bunkertor wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:Pretty big numbers on that watch, only a couple notches below warranting a PDS (generally I think of a PDS being warranted when overall tornado threat is 70% or higher AND the significant tornado threat is 50% or higher - this one is 60/40)...
60/40 which office has submitted this numbers ?
The SPC on their tornado watch.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Mod (60%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Mod (40%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Mod (60%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Mod (30%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
High (90%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (60%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (>95%)
0 likes
-
Ed Mahmoud
Re: Severe weather outbreak? March 30-31
12Z WRF has storms just North of DFW area early evening, and a darned impressive looking storm cluster threading the needle between TXK and SHV late night.
Denton 7 pm WRF forecast sounding, light low level winds cut down on tornado risk, but good instability, and good speed shear where the CAPE is highest, can't rule out hail.
Despite the late hour, the Arlatex region will have decent, if not amazing instability, and favorable shear, so a overnight tornado isn't out of the question.
Denton 7 pm WRF forecast sounding, light low level winds cut down on tornado risk, but good instability, and good speed shear where the CAPE is highest, can't rule out hail.
Despite the late hour, the Arlatex region will have decent, if not amazing instability, and favorable shear, so a overnight tornado isn't out of the question.
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SPC AC 311559
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1059 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008
VALID 311630Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NRN TX...SRN/ERN OK...WRN
AR AND SWRN MO...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
AREA TX NEWD INTO IA/IL...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE CYCLONE WAS MOVING INTO NWRN MO AT MID MORNING AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA BY LATE TONIGHT
...AS PRIMARY MID LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS FROM CO/NM AREA NEWD INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS WILL AID IN PUSHING A TRAILING COLD FRONT EWD
ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY AND SWD INTO NRN/CENTRAL TX BY
MORNING. ALSO...A DRYLINE WILL SHIFT EWD FROM WRN TX INTO THE
CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON.
...OK/SRN MO/SERN KS/AR...
MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWED THE RICHER GULF MOISTURE RETURN WAS CONFINED
MAINLY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IN OK/TX...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S. THIS MOISTURE WAS FEEDING SEVERE STORMS
OVER SWRN MO/SERN KS THIS MORNING...WITH OTHER CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK. ONLY WEAK
CAPPING WAS INDICATED ON THE OKC/SGF 12Z SOUNDINGS...SO WEAK DIURNAL
HEATING AND DYNAMICAL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSE STORMS TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY. THE GREATEST SEVERE
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED ACROSS SRN/ERN OK AND WRN
AR...WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING...
INSTABILITY/MLCAPES 1500-2500 J/KG/ AND DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL BE
THE STRONGEST. EFFECTIVE SHEAR AT 40-50 KT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS...AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN
NUMEROUS STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL. ALSO...THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR/SRH FROM 250-350 M2/S2 AND DEPTH OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
INDICATES TORNADOES ARE LIKELY...SOME STRONG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MODERATE RISK AREA.
...CENTRAL TX...
OTHER THUNDERSTORM ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM NEAR
FSI TO BWD...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SWWD AS DRT...THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONG HEATING IS ALREADY OCCURRING EAST OF THE DRYLINE...WITH
READINGS EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO MID/UPPER 80S BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS
HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S SHOULD YIELD MLCAPES FROM
2000-3000 J/KG. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WITH VERY STEEP MID/HIGH LEVEL LAPSE RATES MOST FAVORABLE
FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND
RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR...TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE
STORMS SHOULD PUSH EWD ACROSS THE REST OF AR/ERN TX AND NWRN LA
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO A LESS
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND THE MAIN FORCING LIFTS NORTH OF THIS AREA.
...NRN MO/SE IA/IL/FAR SRN WI...
DRIER LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS/PCPN SUGGEST
THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER FROM CENTRAL MO NEWD TO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY RESULT IN LESS SEVERE STORMS THAN ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS...DESPITE STRONGER DYNAMICAL FORCING/SURFACE LOW TRACK.
HOWEVER...WHERE HEATING OCCURS...THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES.
..IMY/JEWELL.. 03/31/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1614Z (12:14PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1059 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008
VALID 311630Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NRN TX...SRN/ERN OK...WRN
AR AND SWRN MO...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
AREA TX NEWD INTO IA/IL...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE CYCLONE WAS MOVING INTO NWRN MO AT MID MORNING AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA BY LATE TONIGHT
...AS PRIMARY MID LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS FROM CO/NM AREA NEWD INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS WILL AID IN PUSHING A TRAILING COLD FRONT EWD
ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY AND SWD INTO NRN/CENTRAL TX BY
MORNING. ALSO...A DRYLINE WILL SHIFT EWD FROM WRN TX INTO THE
CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON.
...OK/SRN MO/SERN KS/AR...
MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWED THE RICHER GULF MOISTURE RETURN WAS CONFINED
MAINLY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IN OK/TX...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S. THIS MOISTURE WAS FEEDING SEVERE STORMS
OVER SWRN MO/SERN KS THIS MORNING...WITH OTHER CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK. ONLY WEAK
CAPPING WAS INDICATED ON THE OKC/SGF 12Z SOUNDINGS...SO WEAK DIURNAL
HEATING AND DYNAMICAL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSE STORMS TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY. THE GREATEST SEVERE
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED ACROSS SRN/ERN OK AND WRN
AR...WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING...
INSTABILITY/MLCAPES 1500-2500 J/KG/ AND DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL BE
THE STRONGEST. EFFECTIVE SHEAR AT 40-50 KT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS...AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN
NUMEROUS STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL. ALSO...THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR/SRH FROM 250-350 M2/S2 AND DEPTH OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
INDICATES TORNADOES ARE LIKELY...SOME STRONG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MODERATE RISK AREA.
...CENTRAL TX...
OTHER THUNDERSTORM ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM NEAR
FSI TO BWD...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SWWD AS DRT...THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONG HEATING IS ALREADY OCCURRING EAST OF THE DRYLINE...WITH
READINGS EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO MID/UPPER 80S BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS
HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S SHOULD YIELD MLCAPES FROM
2000-3000 J/KG. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WITH VERY STEEP MID/HIGH LEVEL LAPSE RATES MOST FAVORABLE
FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND
RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR...TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE
STORMS SHOULD PUSH EWD ACROSS THE REST OF AR/ERN TX AND NWRN LA
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO A LESS
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND THE MAIN FORCING LIFTS NORTH OF THIS AREA.
...NRN MO/SE IA/IL/FAR SRN WI...
DRIER LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS/PCPN SUGGEST
THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER FROM CENTRAL MO NEWD TO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY RESULT IN LESS SEVERE STORMS THAN ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS...DESPITE STRONGER DYNAMICAL FORCING/SURFACE LOW TRACK.
HOWEVER...WHERE HEATING OCCURS...THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES.
..IMY/JEWELL.. 03/31/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1614Z (12:14PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
0 likes
Re: Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:Bunkertor wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:Pretty big numbers on that watch, only a couple notches below warranting a PDS (generally I think of a PDS being warranted when overall tornado threat is 70% or higher AND the significant tornado threat is 50% or higher - this one is 60/40)...
60/40 which office has submitted this numbers ?
The SPC on their tornado watch.
Thanks - i only read 10 % in the probabalistic outlook. But had less chance to look for more pages due to extreme bandwith problems.
0 likes
737
WFUS54 KTSA 311650
TORTSA
OKC105-311730-
/O.NEW.KTSA.TO.W.0034.080331T1650Z-080331T1730Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1150 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN NOWATA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT
* AT 1146 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES WEST OF
WATOVA...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.
* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...WATOVA...
NOWATA AND NEW ALLUWE.
IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE COVER NOW! IF NO
UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS!
WFUS54 KTSA 311650
TORTSA
OKC105-311730-
/O.NEW.KTSA.TO.W.0034.080331T1650Z-080331T1730Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1150 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN NOWATA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT
* AT 1146 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES WEST OF
WATOVA...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.
* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...WATOVA...
NOWATA AND NEW ALLUWE.
IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE COVER NOW! IF NO
UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS!
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0521
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN/SERN OK INTO NRN/CENTRAL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 311720Z - 311815Z
WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR
SRN/SERN OK INTO NRN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL TX.
LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED DRY LINE MIXING EWD WITH
INCREASING CONVERGENCE NOTED THROUGH A DEEP LAYER PER OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES FROM SWRN OK SWD THROUGH WRN N TX /W OF SPS/ TO ABI TO TX
BIG BEND REGION. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A GRAVITY WAVE...WHICH
WAS CURRENTLY MOVING ESEWD THROUGH ERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL TX...HAD
RESULTED IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WWD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/WRN TX.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN STRONG SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS.
THUS...FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED AS MLCAPE VALUES INCREASE
TO GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR ERN NM/W TX...WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL
WSWLY FLOW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS STRENGTHENING WITH APPROACH OF THIS
TROUGH. ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO AID IN TSTM
DEVELOPMENT...WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWING CU FORMATION IN
THE VICINITY OF BWD AND NWD ALONG DRY LINE. MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL SUPPORT DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS.
..PETERS.. 03/31/2008
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...
34699506 33149559 32369657 31419759 30869893 31260015
32879932 34219872 34219872 34849867 34319817 34319705
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN/SERN OK INTO NRN/CENTRAL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 311720Z - 311815Z
WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR
SRN/SERN OK INTO NRN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL TX.
LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED DRY LINE MIXING EWD WITH
INCREASING CONVERGENCE NOTED THROUGH A DEEP LAYER PER OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES FROM SWRN OK SWD THROUGH WRN N TX /W OF SPS/ TO ABI TO TX
BIG BEND REGION. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A GRAVITY WAVE...WHICH
WAS CURRENTLY MOVING ESEWD THROUGH ERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL TX...HAD
RESULTED IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WWD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/WRN TX.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN STRONG SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS.
THUS...FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED AS MLCAPE VALUES INCREASE
TO GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR ERN NM/W TX...WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL
WSWLY FLOW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS STRENGTHENING WITH APPROACH OF THIS
TROUGH. ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO AID IN TSTM
DEVELOPMENT...WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWING CU FORMATION IN
THE VICINITY OF BWD AND NWD ALONG DRY LINE. MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL SUPPORT DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS.
..PETERS.. 03/31/2008
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...
34699506 33149559 32369657 31419759 30869893 31260015
32879932 34219872 34219872 34849867 34319817 34319705
0 likes
-
Ed Mahmoud
Re: Severe weather outbreak? March 30-31
DFW aviation discussion mentioned that 18Z sounding shows little remaining cap. The MD for North Texas has already disappeared, don't know if that means a watch is imminent.
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 147
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
145 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 145 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES WEST OF JEFFERSON
CITY MISSOURI TO 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF SCOTT AFB ILLINOIS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 146...
DISCUSSION...CLUSTER OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MO WILL
TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS...COUPLED WITH
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.
...HART
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 147
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
145 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 145 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES WEST OF JEFFERSON
CITY MISSOURI TO 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF SCOTT AFB ILLINOIS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 146...
DISCUSSION...CLUSTER OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MO WILL
TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS...COUPLED WITH
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.
...HART
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
WOUS64 KWNS 311839
WOU7
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 147
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
145 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008
TORNADO WATCH 147 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
ILC013-061-083-117-119-133-157-163-010200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0147.080331T1845Z-080401T0200Z/
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALHOUN GREENE JERSEY
MACOUPIN MADISON MONROE
RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR
MOC007-019-027-051-055-071-073-093-099-113-123-135-139-151-163-
179-183-186-187-189-219-221-510-010200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0147.080331T1845Z-080401T0200Z/
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUDRAIN BOONE CALLAWAY
COLE CRAWFORD FRANKLIN
GASCONADE IRON JEFFERSON
LINCOLN MADISON MONITEAU
MONTGOMERY OSAGE PIKE
REYNOLDS ST. CHARLES ST. FRANCOIS
ST. LOUIS STE. GENEVIEVE WARREN
WASHINGTON
MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. LOUIS CITY
ATTN...WFO...LSX...
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 147 TORNADO IL MO 311845Z - 010200Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
15W JEF/JEFFERSON CITY MO/ - 20SSE BLV/SCOTT AFB IL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM N/S /16SW COU - 44NE FAM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.
LAT...LON 39619243 39298970 37258970 37599243
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 147 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 147
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
145 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 145 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES WEST OF JEFFERSON
CITY MISSOURI TO 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF SCOTT AFB ILLINOIS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 146...
DISCUSSION...CLUSTER OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MO WILL
TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS...COUPLED WITH
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.
...HART
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 147
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
145 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 145 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES WEST OF JEFFERSON
CITY MISSOURI TO 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF SCOTT AFB ILLINOIS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 146...
DISCUSSION...CLUSTER OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MO WILL
TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS...COUPLED WITH
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.
...HART
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
WOUS64 KWNS 311839
WOU7
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 147
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
145 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008
TORNADO WATCH 147 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
ILC013-061-083-117-119-133-157-163-010200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0147.080331T1845Z-080401T0200Z/
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALHOUN GREENE JERSEY
MACOUPIN MADISON MONROE
RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR
MOC007-019-027-051-055-071-073-093-099-113-123-135-139-151-163-
179-183-186-187-189-219-221-510-010200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0147.080331T1845Z-080401T0200Z/
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUDRAIN BOONE CALLAWAY
COLE CRAWFORD FRANKLIN
GASCONADE IRON JEFFERSON
LINCOLN MADISON MONITEAU
MONTGOMERY OSAGE PIKE
REYNOLDS ST. CHARLES ST. FRANCOIS
ST. LOUIS STE. GENEVIEVE WARREN
WASHINGTON
MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. LOUIS CITY
ATTN...WFO...LSX...
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 147 TORNADO IL MO 311845Z - 010200Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
15W JEF/JEFFERSON CITY MO/ - 20SSE BLV/SCOTT AFB IL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM N/S /16SW COU - 44NE FAM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.
LAT...LON 39619243 39298970 37258970 37599243
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 147 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 148
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
200 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 200 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
MCALESTER OKLAHOMA TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF TEMPLE TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 146...WW 147...
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
DEVELOPING ALONG SURFACE DRYLINE OVER NORTH CENTRAL TX IN THE NEXT
HOUR. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY IN ENVIRONMENT
OF HIGH CAPE VALUES AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR. SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED. THREAT WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
...HART
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 148
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
200 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 200 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
MCALESTER OKLAHOMA TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF TEMPLE TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 146...WW 147...
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
DEVELOPING ALONG SURFACE DRYLINE OVER NORTH CENTRAL TX IN THE NEXT
HOUR. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY IN ENVIRONMENT
OF HIGH CAPE VALUES AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR. SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED. THREAT WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
...HART
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
WOUS64 KWNS 311858
WOU8
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 148
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
200 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008
TORNADO WATCH 148 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
OKC005-013-019-023-067-069-085-095-127-010200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0148.080331T1900Z-080401T0200Z/
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CARTER
CHOCTAW JEFFERSON JOHNSTON
LOVE MARSHALL PUSHMATAHA
TXC001-027-035-085-093-097-099-113-119-121-139-143-145-147-161-
181-193-213-217-221-223-231-237-251-257-277-281-289-293-309-331-
333-337-349-363-367-379-395-397-425-439-467-497-010200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0148.080331T1900Z-080401T0200Z/
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BELL BOSQUE
COLLIN COMANCHE COOKE
CORYELL DALLAS DELTA
DENTON ELLIS ERATH
FALLS FANNIN FREESTONE
GRAYSON HAMILTON HENDERSON
HILL HOOD HOPKINS
HUNT JACK JOHNSON
KAUFMAN LAMAR LAMPASAS
LEON LIMESTONE MCLENNAN
MILAM MILLS MONTAGUE
NAVARRO PALO PINTO PARKER
RAINS ROBERTSON ROCKWALL
SOMERVELL TARRANT VAN ZANDT
WISE
ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...TSA...
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 148 TORNADO OK TX 311900Z - 010200Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
35WNW MLC/MCALESTER OK/ - 30SSW TPL/TEMPLE TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM E/W /31WNW MLC - 27N AUS/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
LAT...LON 35069494 30739626 30739895 35069776
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 148 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 148
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
200 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 200 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
MCALESTER OKLAHOMA TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF TEMPLE TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 146...WW 147...
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
DEVELOPING ALONG SURFACE DRYLINE OVER NORTH CENTRAL TX IN THE NEXT
HOUR. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY IN ENVIRONMENT
OF HIGH CAPE VALUES AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR. SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED. THREAT WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
...HART
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 148
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
200 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 200 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
MCALESTER OKLAHOMA TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF TEMPLE TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 146...WW 147...
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
DEVELOPING ALONG SURFACE DRYLINE OVER NORTH CENTRAL TX IN THE NEXT
HOUR. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY IN ENVIRONMENT
OF HIGH CAPE VALUES AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR. SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED. THREAT WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
...HART
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
WOUS64 KWNS 311858
WOU8
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 148
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
200 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008
TORNADO WATCH 148 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
OKC005-013-019-023-067-069-085-095-127-010200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0148.080331T1900Z-080401T0200Z/
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CARTER
CHOCTAW JEFFERSON JOHNSTON
LOVE MARSHALL PUSHMATAHA
TXC001-027-035-085-093-097-099-113-119-121-139-143-145-147-161-
181-193-213-217-221-223-231-237-251-257-277-281-289-293-309-331-
333-337-349-363-367-379-395-397-425-439-467-497-010200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0148.080331T1900Z-080401T0200Z/
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON BELL BOSQUE
COLLIN COMANCHE COOKE
CORYELL DALLAS DELTA
DENTON ELLIS ERATH
FALLS FANNIN FREESTONE
GRAYSON HAMILTON HENDERSON
HILL HOOD HOPKINS
HUNT JACK JOHNSON
KAUFMAN LAMAR LAMPASAS
LEON LIMESTONE MCLENNAN
MILAM MILLS MONTAGUE
NAVARRO PALO PINTO PARKER
RAINS ROBERTSON ROCKWALL
SOMERVELL TARRANT VAN ZANDT
WISE
ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...TSA...
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 148 TORNADO OK TX 311900Z - 010200Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
35WNW MLC/MCALESTER OK/ - 30SSW TPL/TEMPLE TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM E/W /31WNW MLC - 27N AUS/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
LAT...LON 35069494 30739626 30739895 35069776
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 148 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
0 likes
-
Ed Mahmoud
Re: Severe weather outbreak? March 30-31
Weather Glossary is Available Here
000
FLUS74 KFWD 311918
AWUFWD
AREA WEATHER UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
218 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008
...MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR NORTH TEXAS...
TORNADO WATCH BOX HAS BEEN ISSUED THAT COVERS NEARLY ALL OF NORTH
TEXAS. DRYLINE APPEARED TO BE STRENGTHENING NEAR A LINE EXTENDING
FROM MONTAGUE COUNTY TO NEAR BRIDGEPORT TO MINERAL WELLS TO NEAR
COMANCHE. SBCAPES OVER 2000 J/KG ALONG DRYLINE...WITH POCKETS OF
INSTABILITY OVER 2500 J/KG NOTED IN AREAS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR NOW 40 KTS (AND INCREASING) AND LCL
HEIGHTS AT OR BELOW 1000M...PARAMETERS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELL STORMS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR AROUND 20-25 KTS WILL ALSO BE
FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYLOGENESIS...WITH GREATEST TORNADO
THREAT OCCURRING WITH SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS THAT CAN TRACK INTO AREAS
WITH NEAR-SURFACE WINDS REMAINING BACKED TO A SOUTH OR
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION.
VERY LARGE HAIL ALSO LIKELY WITH SUPERCELL STORMS INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.
POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACK INTENSE SUPERCELLS MAY BE GREATEST ACROSS
COUNTIES NEAR RED RIVER WHERE DRYLINE INTERSECTS COLD FRONT. THIS
INTERSECTION IS CURRENTLY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...BUT COULD MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO AREAS NEAR THE RED RIVER BY 2100Z. THIS AREA WILL
ALSO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LARGE SCALE LIFTING FROM RIGHT EXIT
REGION OF 250 MB JET.
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