Winter Weather in the deep south thread

[MGC]

I along with a couple of girfriends drove up to Jackson last night to see the snow. We only got about 1/2 inch as the snow moved through quickly. Threw a few snowballs then headed over to Vicksburg to gamble. Won enough money to pay for dinner and gas. On the way home to the coast I noticed flurries as far south as Mount Olive on US 49.....MGC

[Brent]

What does Birmingham mean here?

ON THURSDAY A SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL EJECT
EASTWARD. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY NIGHT MAY BE ACTIVE ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE LOOKS PARTICULARLY
INTERESTING WITH THIS SYSTEM. TWO JET STREAKS ARE FAVORABLY LOCATED
THURSDAY...AND IF THEY PHASE JUST RIGHT THINGS COULD GET INTERESTING
IN A HURRY. GIVEN THE TRACK RECORD OF SEVERE/WINTRY WEATHER SO FAR
THIS YEAR...THURSDAY NIGHT WOULD BE JUST ABOUT RIGHT ON SCHEDULE.
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

[Brent]

I'm not at all ready to get worked up here, but that is certainly an interesting setup.

The Mid-Atlantic(especially the Carolinas) may get buried.

[Brent]

Memphis:

THE WEATHER PATTERN GETS MORE INTERESTING FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER STRONGER
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...BOTH THE LATEST 12Z GFS
AND ECMWF DEVELOP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
LIFT IT NORTHEAST. THIS PATTERN IS NOT ALL THAT DIFFERENT FROM THE
MID AND UPPER PATTERN A WEEK AND A HALF AGO THAT BROUGHT THE MID
SOUTH ITS HEAVIEST MARCH SNOW EVENT IN 20 YEARS. AT THIS
TIME...MODELS ARE TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SYSTEM AS
COMPARED TO A WEEK AND A HALF AGO...BUT WITH THAT SAID...THE
MODELS HAVE TENDED TO HAVE A SOUTHWARD BIAS WITH MOST SYSTEMS ALL
WINTER. WITH A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...WE MAY BE AGAIN SETTING THE STAGE FOR A LATE
WINTER/EARLY SPRING SNOW EVENT. AT THIS TIME...SINCE WE ARE STILL
SEVERAL DAYS AWAY AND MANY THINGS CAN AND LIKELY WILL CHANGE
BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO HAVE KEPT
WARMER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE AND PRECIPITATION IN THE LIQUID FORM.
YET WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH OF
THE AREA...WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM FOR THE
POSSIBILITY FOR MORE SNOW. THIS FORECAST WILL BE REFINED AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

Nashville:

IN THE EXT FCST...MODELS ATTEMPTING TO CONJURE UP A COLD RAIN OR
PERHAPS WET SNOW EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE BULK OF THE QPF WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN MIDDLE TN. I WILL KEEP THE PRECIP AS ALL RAIN FOR NOW. ITS
NOW THE LAST HALF OF MARCH AND ITS ONLY 1 MODEL RUN

Birmingham:

THINGS BECOME A LITTLE INTERESTING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MOISTURE QUICKLY INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY WHEN AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH. PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP AND
INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT. IF ENOUGH COLD AIR REMAINS NEAR THE
SURFACE...THIS COULD BE WINTER WEATHER SET UP. BEING THAT IT IS
ALMOST LATE MARCH...WILL TAKE A MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL APPROACH AND
KEEP THE PRECIP AS LIQUID AT THIS TIME. PLENTY OF TIME STILL LEFT
TO MAKE ANY CHANGES AND WE ALL KNOW THAT MODELS WILL PROBABLY
CHANGE THINGS AROUND

[jdray]

No snow here, but JAX might break the record low tonight.

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...SURGE OF COOLER AIR AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NWLY WINDS AND TEMPS SOME 10 DEG BELOW GUIDANCE.
TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO MEET FORECAST HIGHS. MIXING TOOLS AND MOS
OUTPUT SUGGEST A MARGINAL LAKE WIND ADVISORY TODAY AS 1000-850 MB
WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 25-30 KT IN SOME AREAS. HAVE RAISED THE
ADVISORY FOR THE CWA EXCEPT EXTREME SE PORTION WHERE LOW LEVEL JET
WON`T BE AS HIGH AS INLAND LOCATIONS INITIALLY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/JET WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WHICH WILL HELP CONTINUE A
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY OVER THE S HALF OF CWA FIRST HALF OF TODAY.
TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN. CLEAR SKIES
AND SFC HIGH WILL MOVE INTO S GA ALLOWING WINDS TO RELAX. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE LOWER 30S INLAND AREAS AND HAVE ISSUED A
FREEZE WATCH. DURATIONS SHOULD ONLY BE ABOUT 2 HOURS OR LESS AS SFC
WINDS WILL ALLOW SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO CONTINUE WELL INTO
THE NIGHT HOURS. CURRENT RECORD LOWS OF JAX 36 DEG IN 2006, GNV 30
DEG IN 1968, AMG 32 DEG IN 1956 MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN. TUESDAY...TEMPS
REBOUND BUT NE FLOW AND 850 MB TEMPS WELL BELOW TYPICAL VALUES WILL
SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL HIGHS DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. SFC HIGH WILL BRIDGE OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS IN
THE 10-15 MPH RANGE. TUE NIGHT...MIN TEMPS WERE TWEAKED DOWN SOME
WITH STILL MID 30S POSSIBLE INLAND AREAS WITH PATCHY FROST. SFC HIGH
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EWD INTO THE WRN ATLC BY EARLY WED. WED...A
WARMING TREND ANTICIPATED AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME SELY. MAX TEMPS
PUSHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S ANTICIPATED.

[Brent]

High of 53 with blustery north winds, I think we went back to January. Upper 20's tonight. Brrrr

[jdray]

31F at my house this morning.

Officially: 34F @ JIA = new low record


Brrrrrr

[Ed Mahmoud]

How do y'all define the Deep South? Membership in the CSA back in the day? A certain percentage of the population Southern Baptists?



Because I was watching TV yesterday, and it was in the 30s and 40s (around 4ºC) with drizzle in Southern Virginia.




I have a feeling this thread will not be visited often from here on out, especially seeing that the brutal Texas winter is ending, which means winter to its East is winding down as well.

[Opal storm]

Winter is just about outta here down here, been in the upper 70's all week and it's felt so nice. Everything is turning bright green and flowers are blooming, love this time of year.

[AnnularCane]

I have a feeling this thread will not be visited often from here on out, especially seeing that the brutal Texas winter is ending, which means winter to its East is winding down as well.

I didn't know Houston winters were so brutal.

[Brent]

Another wedge today, not quite as extreme as Sunday(when we barely got to 50), but we're at 60 right now! Temperature has been slowly falling all day with patchy drizzle.

[Brent]

Spoke too soon!

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. COLD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL LAST WELL INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SPRING LIKE CONDITIONS WILL COME TO A HALT AS
WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES RETURN. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS COULD BRING AN "INTERESTING"
SITUATION SUNDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE THIS SYSTEM
BRINGS. PERHAPS THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTER WEATHER? BEING THIS FAR
OUT...NOT READY TO MENTION ANYTHING LIKE THAT YET ON THE FORECAST.
ODDS ARE AGAINST A WINTER SOLUTION ESPECIALLY CLIMATOLOGICALLY
SPEAKING. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT THOUGH FOR SURE.

Either way, could be a freeze early next week.

[JonathanBelles]

It isnt winter weather per say, but Highs may only be in the 60's early next week.

[Scorpion]

Lows in the upper 40's next week it looks like... pretty cold for this time of year.

[Extremeweatherguy]

We are forecasted to drop into the lower 40s here in north Houston on Saturday night. It has been quite some time since we have seen numbers that chilly around this area.

[Kennethb]

Let's enjoy this cool snap while we can, along with not having to use the a/c. In another month it will be but a nice memory as we look toward 90's, afternoon thunderstorms, and the a/c running all days and nights.

[Brent]

A BIG CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AFTER THESE WARM SPRING DAYS...WE WILL BRIEFLY GO BACK
TO WINTER. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW EXTREME COLD AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH A UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THINGS ARE STILL LOOKING
PRETTY INTERESTING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. A SLUG OF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE THAT WE COULD SQUEEZE
OUT SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT BY ANY MEANS
THOUGH. BUT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE POTENTIAL CLOSELY
OVER THE NEXT FEW PACKAGES.

*looks at the calendar*

and I've been running the A/C all day today.

[Extremeweatherguy]

My North Houston area forecast for the next few nights...

Sat. Night - 44F

Sun. Night - 41F

Mon. Night - 44F

Tues. Night - 50F

Our average low for this time of the year is 57F, so this will definitely be a nice, extended period of below average overnight temperatures.

**updated**

[Brent]

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE AN EXTRAORDINARILY UNEVENTFUL LONG TERM...
IS SIGNIFICANTLY MARRED BY THE FORECAST FOR UNSEASONABLY COLD...
POSSIBLY RECORD SETTING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY...AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). THROW INTO THE MIX
A LITTLE LINGERING MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIGGING
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING...AND YOU CAN ADD THE CHANCE OF AT LEAST MIXED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE EQUATION.

WITH THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW...RIDGE IN THE WEST...ANOMALOUSLY
DEEP TROUGH IN THE EAST...COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR DOWN
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE HEART OF DIXIE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO KEEP CLOUDS AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AROUND LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND WINDS SHOULD STAY UP...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL DIP
INTO THE 30S AREA WIDE. SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER/PROTECTED
LOCATIONS COULD STILL APPROACH FREEZING ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
A LINE FROM TUSCALOOSA TO WEDOWEE...BUT THE WINDS AND CLOUD COVER
SHOULD PRECLUDE A FROST. AFTER A CHILLY DAY MONDAY...THE SURFACE
HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA...SKIES WILL
CLEAR...AND WINDS WILL DROP OFF OVERNIGHT. I AM NOT NORMALLY A FAN
OF THROWING RECORD TEMPERATURES INTO A FORECAST...ESPECIALLY ON
NIGHT THREE...BUT THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS COLD OUTBREAK IS GOOD...
AND THE IMPACT OF SUCH TEMPERATURES COULD BE POTENTIALLY
DEVASTATING TO CROPS AND VEGETATION. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HOIST
THE FREEZE WATCH OVER THE ENTIRE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...TO ALLOW
FOLKS AS MUCH TIME AS POSSIBLE TO MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR THE
CONDITIONS. EVEN IF TEMPERATURES DO NOT ACTUALLY REACH FREEZING
TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE IS STILL A GOOD POSSIBILITY FOR A RATHER
HEAVY FROST.

TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE SOUTH...EXPECT TEMPS
TO BEGIN CLIMBING UPWARD AGAIN. RIGHT NOW TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ARE FORECAST ABOVE FREEZING...BUT WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF CALM
WINDS...THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF FROST AT THIS POINT IN THE
NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT.

[rsdoug1981]

This is pretty cool for April weather in Mississippi...

Here is NWS Jackson's afternoon forecast update:

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE UNSTABLE AIR
MASS PRODUCED BY THE DOME OF COLD TEMPS ALOFT. HAVE RECEIVED TWO
REPORTS OF VERY SMALL GRAUPEL OVER NERN AREAS. ADJUSTED FORECAST TO
INCLUDE MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS I-20 NWD THIS AFTERNOON.