Next big severe outbreak starts Monday?

[CrazyC83]

No surprise it is PDS considering it is the main threat area:

SEL1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 131
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SMALL PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN LOUISIANA
LARGE PART OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1100 AM UNTIL 700
PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
COLLEGE STATION TEXAS TO MONROE LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 130...

DISCUSSION...AS STRONG UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES SRN
TX...THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN TX. VERY STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR PROFILES COUPLED WITH A DEEP MOIST MDTLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS SUPPORTS TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOS TO
OCCUR GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS FIELDS AND FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMICS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.


...HALES

[CrazyC83]

Probabilities are 90/60 in that watch.

High risk at 1630Z is quite possible now...

[RL3AO]

Impressive probabilities. New outlook is out in about 20 minutes.

[CrazyC83]

1630Z: no HIGH, slight northward adjustment to the MDT (still way too small)...

[RL3AO]

The 15%H tornado shifted north. A 45% wind along the coast kept that area in a MDT.

EDIT: The MDT area actually got smaller.

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 181618

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

VALID 181630Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN TX...SRN AND ERN AR...AND
NRN/WRN LA......

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN PLAINS NEWD ACROSS THE
LOWER MS/ WRN TN AND LOWER OH VALLEYS...

...CENTRAL/ERN TX/LA AND SRN AR...
AT MID MORNING...A SW-NE ORIENTED FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE MIDDLE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY NEWD INTO NWRN AR/SERN MO. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS
LOCATED NEAR SAT...WITH DRYLINE EXTENDING N-S FROM THIS FEATURE. THE
SRN TX SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS IT SHIFTS NEWD INTO THE
ARKLATEX THIS EVENING...AND WRN TN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...IN
RESPONSE TO UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED JET MAX LIFTING NEWD FROM SRN
TX INTO AR.

MOST OF THE CONVECTION SO FAR THIS MORNING HAS BEEN ELEVATED AND
LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT/DRYLINE. HOWEVER...INCREASING LARGE
SCALE LIFT HAD RECENTLY RESULTED IN STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE WARM
SECTOR FROM CENTRAL TX NEWD INTO AR. AS THE FORCING OVERSPREADS THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...THIS SHOULD AID IN WEAKENING THE
CAP...WITH STORMS INTENSIFYING AND INCREASING IN NUMBER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

EAST OF THE FRONT/DRYLINE ACROSS TX AND LA/SERN AR AND SWRN AR...
TEMPERATURES HAD WARMED INTO 70S WITH DEW POINTS RANGING FROM 65 TO
70 DEGREES. THIS WAS RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES
NEAR 1000 J/KG...AND THESE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR
2000 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN TX/LA. MORNING
SOUNDINGS AND WIND PROFILERS SHOW STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE
OF SUPERCELLS...AND WIND PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN MORE SO THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS 100+ KT MID LEVEL JET MAX SPREADS INTO THE
REGION. LARGE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE TURNING HODOGRAPHS... WITH 1 KM
SRH FROM 300-500 M2/S2...WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STORMS WITH STRONG
ROTATION AND TORNADOES...SOME STRONG. ALSO...SEVERE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

THE SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SERN TX THIS AFTERNOON...
SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A FAST MOVING LINEAR SYSTEM AS THE 100 KT SSWLY
ORIENTED JET MAX LIFTS INTO THE AREA ALONG DRYLINE/COLD FRONT. THE
STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED BOW
ECHOES/SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE LINE. THOUGH WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT...THE MAGNITUDE OF THE LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO
FAVOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITHIN BOW ECHO STRUCTURES. THE LINE IS
EXPECTED TO SWEEP RAPIDLY EWD INTO SRN LA/MS OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH WITH EASTWARD EXTENT OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING...THE STRENGTH OF UPPER SYSTEM AND WIND
FIELDS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED TORNADOES AS
THE LINE SHIFTS EWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL STATES OVERNIGHT.

...MID MS AND TN VALLEY THROUGH SRN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY...
AN AXIS OF LOWER TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS IS LOCATED ON THE WARM SIDE OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER THAN IN TX/LA
DUE TO EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
HOWEVER...EVEN WITH WEAK INSTABILITY...EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 60 KT AND
1KM SRH FROM 400 TO 500 M2/S2 WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BOW ECHOES AND
SUPERCELLS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE SEVERE
THREAT APPEARS MORE MARGINAL INTO THE TN AND LOWER OH VALLEYS WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER.

..IMY.. 03/18/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1626Z (12:26PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[Evil Jeremy]

It has been a long time since I have seen a 45% wind from them. This is going to be a long afternoon.

[windnrain]

I'm in ruston, in North Louisiana. We're in the tornado watch box. We had a pretty awesome tornado pass north of town last time, and it was very exciting. Whats the chances of me getting another one of these in my area? It seems like there are a lot of tornado watches, but virtually no warnings anywhere. What makes them so sure that this thing will spawn tornadoes?

[RL3AO]

I'm in ruston, in North Louisiana. We're in the tornado watch box. We had a pretty awesome tornado pass north of town last time, and it was very exciting. Whats the chances of me getting another one of these in my area? It seems like there are a lot of tornado watches, but virtually no warnings anywhere. What makes them so sure that this thing will spawn tornadoes?

First of all. A tornado passing near you shouldn't be exciting. Second, whats the point of issuing a watch when there are already tornadoes on the ground? Third, with moderate CAPEs and a strong low-level jet, conditions are favorable for tornadic storms.

[RL3AO]

Nice clearing over Louisiana.

[windnrain]

I'm in ruston, in North Louisiana. We're in the tornado watch box. We had a pretty awesome tornado pass north of town last time, and it was very exciting. Whats the chances of me getting another one of these in my area? It seems like there are a lot of tornado watches, but virtually no warnings anywhere. What makes them so sure that this thing will spawn tornadoes?

First of all. A tornado passing near you shouldn't be exciting. Second, whats the point of issuing a watch when there are already tornadoes on the ground? Third, with moderate CAPEs and a strong low-level jet, conditions are favorable for tornadic storms.

Deal with it. I find it exciting. I am a nature-lover, and if I should feel offended, hurt, or morally reprehensible because I enjoy watching even the most powerful forces of nature, well, thats too bad. If you don't like that, tough luck, but who the hell are you to tell me what I should be excited over and what I shouldnt be excited over?
The watch boxes are huge and general, and usually by now I tend to notice that there are tornado warnings embedded in small portions of the watch box, from the individual storms traversing it. This one seems very preemptive, so I was just trying to understand the science behind the predictions. I love weather, I'm just not a meteorologist and the minutia of the science is nothing that I've studied extensively, like I'm sure you have.

Thanks for the response though.

[RL3AO]

Heres why they issued the watch.

DISCUSSION...AS STRONG UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES SRN
TX...THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN TX. VERY STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR PROFILES COUPLED WITH A DEEP MOIST MDTLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS SUPPORTS TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOS TO
OCCUR GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS FIELDS AND FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMICS.

[CrazyC83]

That clearing may have something to do with the PDS watches - notice the watches and outlook are from different forecasters so they see things differently. Classic example was on January 7, when a (verified) PDS watch and a (busted) slight risk were issued at nearly the same time.

[mattpetre]

No need to get so offended. I'm sure RL3AO gets excited also when severe weather is near, but I agree with him that the tone of your initial post did sound almost as if you were wishing for a storm to come right over your area. I get excited about weather outbreaks, but in addition I'm just as relieved when they are over and no one or nothing is damaged. In this particular case I believe (albeit less educated than the long time posters here) that the cause for concern lies in the extreme amounts of low level shear ahead of the front. Once storms do start popping, tornadoes could be following within minutes. The storms are just getting going SE of San Antonio. Watch the line pop over the next couple hours and you'll see the reasoning unfold. However, if nothing really gets going, I'm still very happy when the NWS errs on the side of caution. This situation seems to be going downhill at the moment (or in your case maybe would be considered uphill?)

[RL3AO]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1155 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 1245 PM CDT

* AT 1152 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 2 MILES NORTH OF
BRANCH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...OZARK...
DENNING...ALTUS AND WIEDERKEHR VILLAGE.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I get excited by severe weather as well, but any tornado that travels within about 10 miles of my house will be in densely populated areas and have high damage and injury potential.


I'd assume the same about the Monroe area.


I have to admit, I was nervous and excited at the same time when I was doing Hurricane Rita preps, the whole thing was exciting, but the idea of days w/o electricity, and damage to the home, that was scary. We got lucky with Rita, only low end tropical storm conditions here, but not everybody got lucky, and when Humberto hit, I heard about damaged FEMA trailers, meaning not everyone had recovered 2 years after the fact.

[Evil Jeremy]

I get excited by severe weather as well, but any tornado that travels within about 10 miles of my house will be in densely populated areas and have high damage and injury potential.


I'd assume the same about the Monroe area.


I have to admit, I was nervous and excited at the same time when I was doing Hurricane Rita preps, the whole thing was exciting, but the idea of days w/o electricity, and damage to the home, that was scary. We got lucky with Rita, only low end tropical storm conditions here, but not everybody got lucky, and when Humberto hit, I heard about damaged FEMA trailers, meaning not everyone had recovered 2 years after the fact.

2 Nights before Wilma hit, I was going to a Bar Mitzvah party. I entered it when we were not under a Hurricane Watch, and when the party ended, we were already under a warning. All adrenalin that the party did not create kept me pumped up and excited for the following 36 hours until Wilma hit. Weather is one of the few subjects that can make you excited and happy at the same time as being scared and fearful. If I lived in Texas, I would have the same feeling right now.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0460
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX/SERN OK/MUCH OF AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 130...

VALID 181710Z - 181915Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 130 CONTINUES.

SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW.

LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A WELL-ORGANIZED/BOWING LINE SEGMENT MOVING
EWD ACROSS W CENTRAL AR ATTM...INCLUDING LOW-LEVEL ROTATION EVIDENT
WITHIN THE COMMA HEAD. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY WITH THIS
FEATURE...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BOW-HEAD TORNADO. THIS BOW
APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING ALONG THE WARM FRONT...WHILE MORE ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE CELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP S OF THE FRONT WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR.

WHILE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT ATTM EXISTS INVOF THE BOWING
SEGMENT...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH STRONG/VEERING FLOW
WITH HEIGHT AND MODEST/SLOW DESTABILIZATION SUGGEST THAT SEVERE
POTENTIAL SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE WITH TIME ACROSS THE WW AREA.

..GOSS.. 03/18/2008


ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

36779062 34589044 31889613 34179614 35569393 36669124

[windnrain]

I have been a big weather buff since I was 10. As far as wishing for one to pass near me, trust me, Ruston is not very populated. Monroe is, but if a tornado passes 5 miles north or south of Ruston, it probably won't hit anything but trees. It makes for a great place to watch tornadoes. I remember when the last one hit three or four nights ago, I was on top of a tower (the only tower in town, 15 stories), and watching out of a window as a huge tornado passed. I probably should have been scared, but the tower is pretty strong, so I doubt I would have been injured had it hit. The beautiful shape of the round wall cloud spinning and being lit up by lightning at night was, in one word, divine.

So here, I see that we may be getting storms again. I wanted to try the vantage point again as they rolled into town. Of course, I don't know how things are shaping up for north louisiana. I havent read anything about the potential for strong storms in North LA. Most of the reports I've seen, unless I'm missing something, are pointing towards a southwest LA, east TX event, more than a north LA event. However, I am still in the watch box, so I'm assuming that at the very least, there is a credible threat of strong tornadic storms here.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I get excited by severe weather as well, but any tornado that travels within about 10 miles of my house will be in densely populated areas and have high damage and injury potential.


I'd assume the same about the Monroe area.


I have to admit, I was nervous and excited at the same time when I was doing Hurricane Rita preps, the whole thing was exciting, but the idea of days w/o electricity, and damage to the home, that was scary. We got lucky with Rita, only low end tropical storm conditions here, but not everybody got lucky, and when Humberto hit, I heard about damaged FEMA trailers, meaning not everyone had recovered 2 years after the fact.

2 Nights before Wilma hit, I was going to a Bar Mitzvah party. I entered it when we were not under a Hurricane Watch, and when the party ended, we were already under a warning. All adrenalin that the party did not create kept me pumped up and excited for the following 36 hours until Wilma hit. Weather is one of the few subjects that can make you excited and happy at the same time as being scared and fearful. If I lived in Texas, I would have the same feeling right now.

Someday, I wanna get invited to a Jewish wedding. I'd love to wear a kippah just once.