San Angelo region. Are there two hooks visible ?
Next big severe outbreak starts Monday?
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
Activity picks up strength
San Angelo region. Are there two hooks visible ?
Last edited by Bunkertor on Mon Mar 17, 2008 10:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:The last PDS Severe T-Storm Watch was on July 21, 2006.
None at all were issued in 2007. They are very rare, since they require extreme winds (i.e. a major derecho) and at the same time a fairly low tornado threat.
Yeah. I found it. I made the date red so no one would think it is an active watch.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 631
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
100 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2006
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
SOUTHERN INDIANA
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 100 PM UNTIL 800
PM CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
EXTREMELY DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 90 MPH...LARGE HAIL
TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS.
.....
DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SRN IL INTENSIFYING FURTHER
AS THEY MOVE THRU AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. WIDESPREAD
POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY A WELL ORGANIZED
BOW ECHO/DERECHO THAT IS NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN IL. ADDITIONAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG TRAILING BOUNDARY INTO SERN
MO WHERE AIR MASS ALSO VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE.
0 likes
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0448
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SW/SOUTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL TX
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 126...
VALID 180406Z - 180500Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 126 CONTINUES.
THREAT FOR TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF WW 126.
REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED RAPID DEVELOPMENT AND
STRONG INTENSIFICATION OF TSTMS ACROSS SW TX DURING THE LAST HOUR
/SINCE 03Z/ FROM VAL VERDE COUNTY TO IRION/TOM GREEN COUNTIES. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE RETREATING DRY LINE IN THIS PART OF
TX...AND THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY INDICATIVE OF STRONGER DEEP
LAYER ASCENT SPREADING NEWD INTO THIS REGION AHEAD OF ATTENDANT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN SWLY FLOW ALOFT. STRONG EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 50 KT ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
..PETERS.. 03/18/2008
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SW/SOUTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL TX
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 126...
VALID 180406Z - 180500Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 126 CONTINUES.
THREAT FOR TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF WW 126.
REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED RAPID DEVELOPMENT AND
STRONG INTENSIFICATION OF TSTMS ACROSS SW TX DURING THE LAST HOUR
/SINCE 03Z/ FROM VAL VERDE COUNTY TO IRION/TOM GREEN COUNTIES. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE RETREATING DRY LINE IN THIS PART OF
TX...AND THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY INDICATIVE OF STRONGER DEEP
LAYER ASCENT SPREADING NEWD INTO THIS REGION AHEAD OF ATTENDANT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN SWLY FLOW ALOFT. STRONG EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 50 KT ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
..PETERS.. 03/18/2008
0 likes
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
SPC AC 180600
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX...SRN AR AND NRN
THROUGH WRN LA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER
MS...TN AND SRN OH VALLEYS...
...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. NRN
STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE SRN STREAM CUTOFF LOW EJECTS
NEWD THROUGH ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SW-NE ORIENTED
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM SWRN TX NEWD INTO SRN MO AND THE OH VALLEY
EARLY TUESDAY WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SEWD DURING THE DAY...WHILE FRONT
ACCOMPANYING THE SRN STREAM UPPER LOW WILL ADVANCE THROUGH SERN
TX...REACHING THE LOWER MS VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT.
...ERN TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD FROM PARTS OF W CNTRL TX NEWD THROUGH OK AND THE MID MS
VALLEY REGION. SOME HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY WITH ACTIVITY
OVER TX WHERE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL
EXIST. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES IN WARM SECTOR ACROSS ERN TX
AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. SLY TRAJECTORIES AND MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN ONLY MODEST 700-500 MB
LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO 1500 J/KG MLCAPE DURING THE DAY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF SERN AND ERN TX IN VICINITY OF EWD ADVANCING FRONT
AND WITHIN DIVERGENT EXIT REGION OF MID LEVEL JET. FORECAST VERTICAL
WIND PROFILES SHOW STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE 50+ KT LOW LEVEL
JET AXIS...BUT EXHIBIT A VEER-BACK PATTERN IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER.
THIS PROFILE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AN EVOLUTION TO MIXED STORM MODES
INCLUDING LINES WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH ERN
TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GREATEST THREAT EXPECTED IN MODERATE RISK
AREA. DESPITE WEAKENING INSTABILITY...STRONG LINEAR FORCING WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN LINES OF STORMS THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO
A PORTION OF THE SERN STATES OVERNIGHT.
...MID MS AND TN VALLEY THROUGH SRN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY...
DESPITE AN AXIS OF LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NEWD ALONG THE
SW-NE BAROCLINIC ZONE...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK IN THIS REGION
OWING TO EXPECTED WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES
ALONG THE SW-NE ORIENTED BOUNDARY AS WITHIN ZONE OF FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH NEWD MIGRATING LOW LEVEL JET AND SURFACE LOW.
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES
INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES. ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE THREAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT
MORE MARGINAL TOWARD THE TN AND OH VALLEY WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
MORE LIMITED.
..DIAL/JEWELL.. 03/18/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0609Z (7:09AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 181210
ARZ000-LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-182015-
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0710 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND MUCH OF LOUISIANA
TODAY...SPREADING INTO EASTERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
LOUISIANA
WESTERN MISSISSIPPI
EASTERN TEXAS
SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.
A POTENT UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED 100+ KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS TEXAS TODAY...WITH SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT
MOVING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION BY
EARLY EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD. DAYTIME HEATING AND COOLING ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WIND SHEAR PROFILES
WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG...AND WILL FAVOR A FEW TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR
TORNADOES...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES...WILL BE
FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS
FROM MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
STORMS WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO EASTERN LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI
AND WESTERN TENNESSEE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
A CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST.
THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
..JEWELL/WEISS.. 03/18/2008
$$
WOUS40 KWNS 181210
ARZ000-LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-182015-
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0710 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND MUCH OF LOUISIANA
TODAY...SPREADING INTO EASTERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
LOUISIANA
WESTERN MISSISSIPPI
EASTERN TEXAS
SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.
A POTENT UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED 100+ KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS TEXAS TODAY...WITH SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT
MOVING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION BY
EARLY EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD. DAYTIME HEATING AND COOLING ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WIND SHEAR PROFILES
WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG...AND WILL FAVOR A FEW TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR
TORNADOES...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES...WILL BE
FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS
FROM MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
STORMS WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO EASTERN LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI
AND WESTERN TENNESSEE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
A CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST.
THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
..JEWELL/WEISS.. 03/18/2008
$$
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0456
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0722 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...MID/UPPER TX COAST...NWD INTO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF
THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METRO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 181222Z - 181415Z
A NEW WATCH SEEMS LIKELY TO BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT THIS
MORNING...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 15Z.
A STRONG IMPULSE IN THE BASE OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH NOW
APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF SLOWLY ACCELERATING TOWARD THE LOWER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY. AS THIS CONTINUES...MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE
THAT AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL ADVECT NORTH NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS THIS MORNING. ON
THE NOSE OF THIS AIR MASS...ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION NEAR CONFLUENCE ZONE JUST TO THE WEST OF A 60-70 KT
SOUTHERLY 850 JET STREAK MAY BECOME THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.
TIMING IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN DUE TO INITIALLY CONSIDERABLE
INHIBITION. BUT...MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING
ACROSS THIS REGION...WELL IN ADVANCE OF UPPER IMPULSE. AND...IT
APPEARS INITIATION OF STORMS COULD OCCUR BY 15-16Z. ONCE THIS
COMMENCES...MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASING THROUGH THE 1000-2000 J/KG
RANGE...IN THE PRESENCE OF LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES
ARE POSSIBLE...AND MAY AFFECT AREAS NEAR/EAST OF VICTORIA/AUSTIN AND
TEMPLE THROUGH COLLEGE STATION BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
..KERR.. 03/18/2008
ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...
28559681 28959746 30109774 31269789 32019750 32619651
32689570 31479505 30209481 29419496 28519635
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0722 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...MID/UPPER TX COAST...NWD INTO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF
THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METRO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 181222Z - 181415Z
A NEW WATCH SEEMS LIKELY TO BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT THIS
MORNING...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 15Z.
A STRONG IMPULSE IN THE BASE OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH NOW
APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF SLOWLY ACCELERATING TOWARD THE LOWER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY. AS THIS CONTINUES...MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE
THAT AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL ADVECT NORTH NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS THIS MORNING. ON
THE NOSE OF THIS AIR MASS...ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION NEAR CONFLUENCE ZONE JUST TO THE WEST OF A 60-70 KT
SOUTHERLY 850 JET STREAK MAY BECOME THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.
TIMING IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN DUE TO INITIALLY CONSIDERABLE
INHIBITION. BUT...MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING
ACROSS THIS REGION...WELL IN ADVANCE OF UPPER IMPULSE. AND...IT
APPEARS INITIATION OF STORMS COULD OCCUR BY 15-16Z. ONCE THIS
COMMENCES...MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASING THROUGH THE 1000-2000 J/KG
RANGE...IN THE PRESENCE OF LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES
ARE POSSIBLE...AND MAY AFFECT AREAS NEAR/EAST OF VICTORIA/AUSTIN AND
TEMPLE THROUGH COLLEGE STATION BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
..KERR.. 03/18/2008
ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...
28559681 28959746 30109774 31269789 32019750 32619651
32689570 31479505 30209481 29419496 28519635
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Next big severe outbreak starts Monday?
SPC AC 181240
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008
VALID 181300Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN TX...SRN AR...AND
NRN/WRN LA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY...
...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A
PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE NRN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES
DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...WHILE AN UPPER LOW OVER NRN
MEXICO HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY EWD. THESE TWO SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST
TO PHASE TODAY WITH THE SRN STREAM UPPER LOW ACCELERATING ENEWD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...A SW-NE ORIENTED FRONT FROM THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY ACROSS N CENTRAL TX AND SRN MO IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD...AS
A SURFACE LOW NE OF JCT GRADUALLY DEVELOPS NEWD ACROSS NERN TX INTO
AR. THE SRN PART OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE RAPIDLY EWD
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SERN TX THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING
ACROSS LA AND MS TONIGHT.
...CENTRAL/ERN TX INTO LA/SRN AR...
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NE OF DRT INTO N CENTRAL TX IS SLOWLY
SPREADING EWD AS CELLS MOVE NEWD. MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN
ELEVATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER...SEVERAL
SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE BAND WERE
ABLE TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER THIS MORNING BEFORE
WEAKENING AROUND 11Z.
EAST OF THE FRONT OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN TX INTO LA AND SRN AR
TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED IN THE LOW 70S AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT SHOWING INCREASING
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER ERN TX DURING
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG OVER PARTS OF ERN
TX INTO WRN LA...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE BREAKS IN CLOUDS WILL
ENHANCE DIABATIC HEATING. REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS...WIND PROFILER
AND VWP DATA INDICATE VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS THAT VEER WITH
HEIGHT IN THE LOWEST 3 KM...WITH SLIGHT BACKING IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE 60-70 KT SSWLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW.
LARGE CLOCKWISE TURNING HODOGRAPHS WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 50-60 KT
AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 200-400 MS/S2 WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
FOR ANY DISCRETE STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
STRONGER CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...AND TORNADOES...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG
TORNADOES.
THE PRIMARY SEVERE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A
LINEAR SYSTEM WITH EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES/ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ACROSS
ERN TX DURING THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING EWD INTO LA AND THE LOWER MS
VALLEY TONIGHT. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH WITH EASTWARD
EXTENT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS BECOMING THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT AFTER
00-03Z...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE CONTINUED VERY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR.
...MID MS AND TN VALLEY THROUGH SRN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY...
DESPITE AN AXIS OF LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NEWD ALONG THE
SW-NE BAROCLINIC ZONE...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK IN THIS REGION
OWING TO EXPECTED WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. HOWEVER...VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES...INCLUDING BOW ECHOES AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...ALONG
THE SW-NE ORIENTED BOUNDARY WITHIN ZONE OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
NEWD MIGRATING LOW LEVEL JET AND SURFACE LOW. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE THREAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT MORE
MARGINAL TOWARD THE TN AND OH VALLEY WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE
LIMITED.
..WEISS/JEWELL.. 03/18/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1250Z (8:50AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008
VALID 181300Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN TX...SRN AR...AND
NRN/WRN LA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY...
...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A
PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE NRN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES
DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...WHILE AN UPPER LOW OVER NRN
MEXICO HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY EWD. THESE TWO SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST
TO PHASE TODAY WITH THE SRN STREAM UPPER LOW ACCELERATING ENEWD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...A SW-NE ORIENTED FRONT FROM THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY ACROSS N CENTRAL TX AND SRN MO IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD...AS
A SURFACE LOW NE OF JCT GRADUALLY DEVELOPS NEWD ACROSS NERN TX INTO
AR. THE SRN PART OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE RAPIDLY EWD
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SERN TX THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONTINUING
ACROSS LA AND MS TONIGHT.
...CENTRAL/ERN TX INTO LA/SRN AR...
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NE OF DRT INTO N CENTRAL TX IS SLOWLY
SPREADING EWD AS CELLS MOVE NEWD. MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN
ELEVATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER...SEVERAL
SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE BAND WERE
ABLE TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER THIS MORNING BEFORE
WEAKENING AROUND 11Z.
EAST OF THE FRONT OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN TX INTO LA AND SRN AR
TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED IN THE LOW 70S AND DEW POINTS ARE IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT SHOWING INCREASING
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER ERN TX DURING
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG OVER PARTS OF ERN
TX INTO WRN LA...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE BREAKS IN CLOUDS WILL
ENHANCE DIABATIC HEATING. REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS...WIND PROFILER
AND VWP DATA INDICATE VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS THAT VEER WITH
HEIGHT IN THE LOWEST 3 KM...WITH SLIGHT BACKING IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE 60-70 KT SSWLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW.
LARGE CLOCKWISE TURNING HODOGRAPHS WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 50-60 KT
AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 200-400 MS/S2 WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
FOR ANY DISCRETE STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
STRONGER CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...AND TORNADOES...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG
TORNADOES.
THE PRIMARY SEVERE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A
LINEAR SYSTEM WITH EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES/ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ACROSS
ERN TX DURING THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING EWD INTO LA AND THE LOWER MS
VALLEY TONIGHT. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH WITH EASTWARD
EXTENT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS BECOMING THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT AFTER
00-03Z...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE CONTINUED VERY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR.
...MID MS AND TN VALLEY THROUGH SRN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY...
DESPITE AN AXIS OF LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NEWD ALONG THE
SW-NE BAROCLINIC ZONE...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK IN THIS REGION
OWING TO EXPECTED WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. HOWEVER...VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES...INCLUDING BOW ECHOES AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...ALONG
THE SW-NE ORIENTED BOUNDARY WITHIN ZONE OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
NEWD MIGRATING LOW LEVEL JET AND SURFACE LOW. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE THREAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT MORE
MARGINAL TOWARD THE TN AND OH VALLEY WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE
LIMITED.
..WEISS/JEWELL.. 03/18/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1250Z (8:50AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0458
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0926 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX/SERN OK/SWRN AR/NWRN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 181426Z - 181630Z
SEVERE THREAT -- INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES --
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE MD AREA. WW LIKELY IN THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
LATEST SURFACE DATA SHOWS CONTINUED NNWWD ADVECTION OF MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS ACROSS MOST OF THIS
REGION. WHILE MORNING RAOBS INDICATED A WEAK CAP...LIMITED HEATING
THROUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER -- PARTICULARLY OVER NERN TX --
COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL UVV INVOF COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW
WARM-SECTOR STORMS TO DEVELOP.
AS STORMS INCREASE...UPDRAFTS SHOULD QUICKLY ACQUIRE ROTATION GIVEN
FAVORABLY STRONG/VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT PER RAOB/VWP DATA. ALONG
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...0-1 KM SHEAR 30-40 KT
SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WITH THESE SUPERCELLS.
..GOSS.. 03/18/2008
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...
35509348 35249250 34459218 33009269 31529516 31449661
31889699 33359651 34779492
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0926 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX/SERN OK/SWRN AR/NWRN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 181426Z - 181630Z
SEVERE THREAT -- INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES --
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE MD AREA. WW LIKELY IN THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
LATEST SURFACE DATA SHOWS CONTINUED NNWWD ADVECTION OF MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS ACROSS MOST OF THIS
REGION. WHILE MORNING RAOBS INDICATED A WEAK CAP...LIMITED HEATING
THROUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER -- PARTICULARLY OVER NERN TX --
COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL UVV INVOF COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW
WARM-SECTOR STORMS TO DEVELOP.
AS STORMS INCREASE...UPDRAFTS SHOULD QUICKLY ACQUIRE ROTATION GIVEN
FAVORABLY STRONG/VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT PER RAOB/VWP DATA. ALONG
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...0-1 KM SHEAR 30-40 KT
SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WITH THESE SUPERCELLS.
..GOSS.. 03/18/2008
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...
35509348 35249250 34459218 33009269 31529516 31449661
31889699 33359651 34779492
0 likes
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Re: Next big severe outbreak starts Monday?
One of the funniest things I have seen in weather!!!
Hail Reports (in CSV format)
Time Size Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1225 75 3 N SALEM DENT MO 3769 9154 HAIL COVERED GROUND (SGF)
I'm sure some cars in Dent County has some dents after the storm!!!
Link: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.html
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Next big severe outbreak starts Monday?
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 130
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
A LARGE PORTION OF ARKANSAS
SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1020 AM UNTIL 600
PM CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
JONESBORO ARKANSAS TO 55 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PARIS TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY ALONG AND S
OF WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM E OF DAL TO NRN AR. VERY STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND A MOIST...INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
SUPPORTS TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF VEERING SHEAR
PROFILES POTENTIAL EXITS FOR STRONG TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.
...HALES
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 130
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
A LARGE PORTION OF ARKANSAS
SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1020 AM UNTIL 600
PM CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
JONESBORO ARKANSAS TO 55 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PARIS TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY ALONG AND S
OF WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM E OF DAL TO NRN AR. VERY STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND A MOIST...INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
SUPPORTS TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF VEERING SHEAR
PROFILES POTENTIAL EXITS FOR STRONG TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.
...HALES
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re:
RL3AO wrote:I wasn't expecting a PDS that far north. I was thinking there might be one near Houston later.
It probably won't be the only PDS watch, seeing how it only covers a small portion of the moderate risk area. I expect almost all of that watch box to go into a MDT at 1630Z, with perhaps an eastern extension as well. It is also possible that there could be a high risk somewhere. (Best chance of a HIGH is probably in the area from Houston NE to about Monroe, LA +/- 100 miles)
I agree the PDS was kinda unexpected though (the tornado probs are 80/60 which definitely call for PDS) - the 1630Z is going to be REALLY interesting...
0 likes
-
Ed Mahmoud
Re: Next big severe outbreak starts Monday?
I have today off, a doctor's appointment at 1:30, and then I was planning to take the car up for an oil change and tire rotation. It is way overdue. But to be away from the PC and TV during a potential exciting severe outbreak....
Today is my last day off of my 2 day mini-vacation that matches the wife and kids Spring Break.
Today is my last day off of my 2 day mini-vacation that matches the wife and kids Spring Break.
0 likes
Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 27 guests