N TX Weather #2

[TexasStooge]

The National Weather Service has issued a Snow Advisory for persons in Collin, Cooke, Dallas, Delta, Denton, Eastland, Fannin, Grayson, Hunt, Lamar, Montague, Palo Pinto, Parker, Rains, Rockwall, Tarrant, and Wise Counties until Midnight CST Tuesday.

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH A COLD AND MOISTURE RICH
ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SNOW BEGINS TO FALL AFTER 12 PM. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO
TO THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OCCURRING CLOSER
THE RED RIVER. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PULLS OUT OF NORTHEAST TEXAS.

MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ON GRASSY SURFACES
AND ELEVATED SURFACES. HOWEVER...SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES MAY OCCUR
ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The National Weather Service has issued a Snow Advisory for persons in Collin, Cooke, Dallas, Delta, Denton, Eastland, Fannin, Grayson, Hunt, Lamar, Montague, Palo Pinto, Parker, Rains, Rockwall, Tarrant, and Wise Counties until Midnight CST Tuesday.

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH A COLD AND MOISTURE RICH
ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SNOW BEGINS TO FALL AFTER 12 PM. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO
TO THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OCCURRING CLOSER
THE RED RIVER. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PULLS OUT OF NORTHEAST TEXAS.

MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ON GRASSY SURFACES
AND ELEVATED SURFACES. HOWEVER...SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES MAY OCCUR
ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

12Z WRF would require a Winter Storm Watch.

Change to snow around 6 pm, four or six tenths after

[TexasStooge]

Wow! What a night! Some snow began to fell around 7PM in the immediate DFW area. According to the climatic summary, we got an inch of snow, which broke the 1917 record of 0.80 in. But it's not enough to cause any delays in DFW. However, those who live near the Red River that gotten hit the hardest can check wfaa.com/closings for the latest delays and closures (if any).

Otherwise, we'll see the sun melting the leftover snow, then on Thursday, we'll see another (and hopefully final) cold snap.

DFW Forecast

Today: 56°F
Tonight: 42°F
Wednesday: 64°F | 40°F
Thursday: 46°F | 32°F
Friday: 49°F | 32°F
Saturday: 56°F | 44°F
Sunday: 65°F | 49°F
Monday: 68°F

[Ed Mahmoud]

Todays 12Z GFS suggests snow early morning on St Patrick's Day in DFW...

[TexasStooge]

On Monday, we had some rain turned snow. Tomorrow may be a repeat from Monday as once again we get snow on Thursday afternoon and night. We'll get one more mild day before the 2-day cold snap begins. Then we'll get one more mild week and as Ed says, yesterday's 12Z GFS models predicts that Ol' Man Winter is not finished with us yet when Spring Break begins on St. Patrick's Day.

DFW Forecast

Today: 68°F
Tonight: 39°F
Thursday: 41°F | 31°F
Friday: 47°F | 30°F
Saturday: 61°F | 43°F
Sunday: 68°F | 47°F
Monday: 65°F | 49°F
Tuesday: 68°F

[Ed Mahmoud]

OK, per 12Z WRF p-type on PPV AccuWx, at 6 pm Thursday, Northern part of Metroplex is going from rain to snow with a very small trnasition zone, DFW itself still rain, 9pm rain/snow line is in Metroplex, snow ends around lunchtime in DFW Friday.

So, I'll g back to PSU closeup loop w/ 3 hour increments, and guesstimate precip 9 pm to 12 pm for DFW...

Very unscientifically, 0.25, 0, 0.01, 0.05 and 0.01 liquid equivalent in DFW based on WRF, with most falling during nightime hours, when sunlight through clouds is not warming asphalt. Or 0.32 inches liquid equivalent. 3 inches. Based solely on 12Z WRF, and considering road snow is probably half that, and just wet on travelled roads, I give the HEB ISD a 35% chance of no school on Friday. My sister went to Trinity High, and since the influx of a lot of 6'5" plus 250 pound Samoan and Tongan students, the Trinity Trojans are a power in Texas high school football. I went to Catholic school, and got cut from the freshman team, and never tried again, to my everlasting shame.

[TexasStooge]

Mother Nature has hit the Rewind Button as another storm system moves into the North Texas region. It will start out as rainand it will change to snow later this evening, which is why a Snow Advisory is issued for the Northern 1/2 of North Texas until 6:00AM CST. Most of the region will receive at least 1 in. snow accumulations, but higher amounts will occur north of I-20 and just south of the Red River where 3-4 in. accumulations will occur. MOst of the snow will end tomorrow.

DFW Forecast

Today: 40°F
Tonight: 30°F
Friday: 44°F | 32°F
Saturday: 58°F | 46°F
Sunday: 68°F | 50°F
Monday: 73°F | 37°F
Tuesday: 66°F | 48°F
Wednesday: 69°F

[TexasStooge]

Well, the worst is over...for now. The sun is lowly breaking out of the overcasting clouds as a recent band of snow pushes off to the east. Yesterday, theer was a major storm system that has prompted a Winter Storm Warning for the Northern 1/2 of North Texas at around 11:30AM. Cities along and north of a Weatherford, Denton, and Greenville has gotten 3 or more inches. A Snow Advisory continues in effect for the Southeastern 1/2 of the region for more than 2 hours.

DFW Forecast

Today: 49°F
Tonight: 28°F
Saturday: 58°F | 45°F
Sunday: 63°F | 49°F
Monday: 57°F | 44°F
Tuesday: 64°F | 48°F
Wednesday: 71°F | 52°F
Thursday: 68°F

[TexasStooge]

Finally, old man winter's going away...or is he? One thing I do know for a fact is that the weather will be warmer as the week progresses. Highs will get to a near record 90...that's right...90!! Then a strong cold front will sweep through the weekend, dropping temperatures...down to the 70s, so that's still good news. As far as rain is concerned, we'll continue to see showers and thunderstorms today and again on Thursday and Sunday. Other than that, if you're a student and you have Spring Break this week, enjoy it!

DFW Forecast

Today: 61°F
Tonight: 44°F
Tuesday: 68°F | 45°F
Wednesday: 75°F | 55°F
Thursday: 81°F | 55°F
Friday: 88°F | 53°F
Saturday: 72°F | 48°F
Sunday: 71°F

[TexasStooge]

We're waking up to some dense fog this morning that has reduced visibilities next to nothing, which is why a Dense Fog Advisory has ben issued for most of North Texas until 10:00AM CDT. By then, we'll get a rapid clearing and we'll be warming up by Friday.

DFW Forecast

Today: 68°F
Tonight: 51°F
Wednesday: 75°F | 56°F
Thursday: 75°F | 55°F
Friday: 86°F | 54°F
Saturday: 69°F | 46°F
Sunday: 70°F | 58°F
Monday: 74°F

[TexasStooge]

The weather just keeps getting better and better! We're seeing more of the warm weather this week with mostly sunny skies. No fog was detected, so that's good news. We may even hit summer-like temperatures on Friday before falling back to normal readings on Saturday.

DFW Forecast

Today: 78°F
Tonight: 55°F
Thursday: 79°F | 61°F
Friday: 85°F | 54°F
Saturday: 70°F | 46°F
Sunday: 68°F | 54°F
Monday: 71°F | 52°F
Tuesday: 63°F

[TexasStooge]

As the weekend nears, the weather gets warmer and warmer and warmer. In fact, on Friday, we're going to summer mode with highs near 90...then the next day, a strong cold front will sweep through the region, dropping temperatures back down to normal. But the cooldown doesn't stop there...another cool front will drop temperatures down a few degrees cooler after a storm system blows through. We're not expecting anything severe at this point, but we're keeping a close eye on this system.

DFW Forecast

Today: 81°F
Tonight: 58°F
Friday: 44°F | 32°F
Saturday: 72°F | 47°F
Sunday: 69°F | 59°F
Monday: 72°F | 53°F
Tuesday: 66°F | 46°F
Wednesday: 69°F

[jinftl]

might see some frost in your local grocers freezers in DFW area...GFS from just a week ago was smoking something funny as usual!

Todays 12Z GFS suggests snow early morning on St Patrick's Day in DFW...

[TexasStooge]

Those who live in the North Texas region, break out the shorts and T-Shirts! We'll be seeing a taste of summer with highs in the mid 80s. But temperatures will be dropping into the 70s tomorrow after a cold front sweeps through the area. We'll also have a wet St. Patrick's Day through Tuesday.

According to the National Weather Service, this may be the worst day when it comes to fire weather, but they and the law enforcements are ready. That's why a RED FLAG WARNING is issued for a Southwestern 1/3rd of North Texas.

DFW Forecast

Today: 85°F
Tonight: 52°F
Saturday: 72°F | 47°F
Sunday: 63°F | 49°F
Monday: 74°F | 61°F
Tuesday: 70°F | 48°F
Wednesday: 69°F | 49°F
Thursday: 67°F

[Ed Mahmoud]

TRIPLE POST ALERT


In the WRF window now for Monday. MUCAPE in excess of 1000 J/Kg, and deep layer shear 50 knots and higher Southern Oklahoma and North Texas, well...

Added detail: My wife is a teacher, and she and the kids are on Spring Break. May limit my access time to Storm2K this weekend, as we are driving to Hurst-Euless-Bedford suburboplex near DFW this weekend, coming back Monday afternoon because my wife has a doctor's appointment Tuesday morning, and I am working Wednesday through Friday. I suppose, for the safety of the family, we will load up and move out back for Houston by early afternoon, but a little bit of me will miss being in what will probably be a hatched tornado and hail MODERATE RISK area on the 1300 SWODY1 issued on St. Patrick's Day.

[TexasStooge]

I like to start off by saying Happy St. Patrick's Day!! Then I'd also like to say that this is no way to begin a week after experiencing almost summer-like weather. In the next 72 hours, we have a chance of thunderstorms, but we have an even greater chance tonight into Tuesday where some storms could be severe with heavy rain, which is why a Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the southeastern 2/3rds of North Texas (including DFW) until 7:00AM CDT Wednesday. Also, Severe Thunderstorm Watch #123 is in effect for Cooke, Jack, Montage, Wise, and Young Counties until 11:00AM CDT. Does not include DFW but all may change.

DFW Forecast

Today: 79°F
Tonight: 58°F
Tuesday: 61°F | 46°F
Wednesday: 67°F | 42°F
Thursday: 73°F | 55°F
Friday: 73°F | 55°F
Saturday: 68°F | 50°F
Sunday: 65°F

[Ed Mahmoud]

SPC MCD says much of North and Central Texas will be upgraded to MODERATE RISK at 1630Z


Outside, here in Bedford, TX, loading up the minivan for the windy return trip to Northern Harris County.

About 50 to 75% cloud cover of fairly low and shallow cu/strato-cu, with bright sun shining through the breaks, and South winds probaby in excess of 25 mph.


Looks favorable to me. We shal leave while the driving is as good as can be, in a minivan in high winds. Mostly a head wind, not as good for fuel economy as a tail wind, but better for driving than a crosswind.

[Ed Mahmoud]

SW corner Metroplex in a hatched tornado and hail area, and a Day 1 MODERATE RISK area.

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE
FTW ACT 20 NW AUS 10 WSW SAT 35 SW HDO 45 ESE DRT 30 NNE DRT 30 ESE
SJT 20 ESE ABI 45 NE ABI 20 NNW MWL 10 SE FTW.

Tornado

SIGN 30320052 31989968 32419924 32579884 32549813 32199748
31419750 31079757 30349811 29669862 29259944 29180026
29690086 30320052

Hail

SIGN 30320052 31989968 32419924 32579884 32549813 32199748
31419750 31079757 30349811 29669862 29259944 29180026
29690086 30320052

[TexasStooge]

The National weather service has issued a TORNADO WARNING for persons in Hunt Coutny until 6:45PM CDT.

AT 611 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR QUINLAN...OR ABOUT
10 MILES SOUTH OF GREENVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
GREENVILLE BY 620 PM CDT...
NEYLANDVILLE AND CAMPBELL BY 630 PM CDT...
COMMERCE BY 640 PM CDT...

EVACUATE MOBILE HOMES FOR A STORM SHELTER OR PERMANENT BUILDING. IF
NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH AND COVER
YOUR HEAD.

DO NOT STOP UNDER BRIDGES OR HIGHWAY OVERPASSES SINCE THEY OFFER NO
PROTECTION FROM TORNADO WINDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3299 9629 3303 9629 3339 9604 3340 9592
3341 9591 3341 9587 3313 9586 3300 9594
3285 9612
TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 210DEG 38KT 3302 9612

[TexasStooge]

The National Weather Service has issued a TORNADO WARNING for persons in Delta, Hunt, Hopkins, and Lamar Counties until 7:30PM.

* AT 638 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO NEAR CAMPBELL...OR ABOUT NEAR COMMERCE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
PECAN GAP BY 655 PM CDT...
COOPER AND COOPER LAKE PARK DOCTORS CREEK BY 700 PM CDT...
ROXTON BY 710 PM CDT...
TOCO BY 720 PM CDT...

TAKE COVER IN A BASEMENT...OR ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME IN AN
INTERIOR CLOSET OR BATHROOM. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS FOR COVER.

EVACUATE MOBILE HOMES FOR A STORM SHELTER OR PERMANENT BUILDING. IF
NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH AND COVER
YOUR HEAD.

DO NOT STOP UNDER BRIDGES OR HIGHWAY OVERPASSES SINCE THEY OFFER NO
PROTECTION FROM TORNADO WINDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3306 9590 3317 9607 3340 9594 3341 9586
3354 9586 3375 9574 3354 9540
TIME...MOT...LOC 2338Z 217DEG 43KT 3319 9592