TX winter wx thread: Spring-like pattern

[Ed Mahmoud]

12Z WRF shows AUS getting cold enough 1000-500 mb thicknesses and 850 mb freezing line between midnight and 3 am, about the same time precip is ending, so if the model is right, you'll be lucky to see a flurry walking home after a night of purple margaritas as Baby Acapulcos, where I have been mildy buzzed back during my UT days.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Just checked, SPC has an MD for marginally severe hail (watch not expected) between SAT and CRP, but no winter weather MD yet.

[Ed Mahmoud]

12Z WRF shows AUS getting cold enough 1000-500 mb thicknesses and 850 mb freezing line between midnight and 3 am, about the same time precip is ending, so if the model is right, you'll be lucky to see a flurry walking home after a night of purple margaritas as Baby Acapulcos, where I have been mildy buzzed back during my UT days.

Closer perusal of the MOS from my AccuWx PPV site (as my eyeballs just can't perfectly align 850 mb freezing lines with AUS) says that indeed, almost an inch of snow should be expected between about midnight, when 850 mb goes sub-freezing, and 6 am, during which 0.08 inches liquid equivalent will fall, although surface temp remains near 2ºC, suggesting any accumulation of ice on the upper deck of I-35 that could cancel school is slim.

[gboudx]

Don't know about the roads, and again, about a 70% chance of school at Trinity High School in Euless.

Still thinking 70%?

[Portastorm]

Oh ... those margs are something aren't they?!

Well Ed, I hope you are right. I haven't had time to look at the models as closely as you. I'm just basing my unscientific opinion on a basketful of experiences where snow was predicted but never happened.

[gboudx]

Updated Winter Weather Message from DFW NWS. Looks like Snow Advisory has been extended to the counties just south of Tarrant and Dallas.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1026 AM CST THU MAR 6 2008

...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

.AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING OVER NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT IS PROVIDING WIDESPREAD LIFT ACROSS THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY CHANGED TO SLEET AND SNOW IN WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS...AND AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND EAST RAIN WILL
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TODAY AND TONIGHT. BY NOON...RAIN WILL BEGIN
TO MIX WITH SNOW OR CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST THROUGH
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. HIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
AFTER SUNSET... RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS LOCATIONS TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR...WITH ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 3 AND 5INCHES
POSSIBLE ALONG THE RED RIVER.

TXZ133-134-070030-
/O.EXB.KFWD.SN.Y.0002.080306T2000Z-080307T1200Z/
JOHNSON-ELLIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLEBURNE...BURLESON...WAXAHACHIE...
ENNIS...MIDLOTHIAN...GLENN HEIGHTS
1026 AM CST THU MAR 6 2008

...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A SNOW
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM
CST FRIDAY.

RAIN WILL BEGIN CHANGING TO SNOW THIS AFTERNOON IN THE JOHNSON-
ELLIS COUNTY AREA. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING
HOURS FRIDAY. EXPECT TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 1 AND 3
INCHES.

A SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED WHICH MAY
CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. EXERCISE CAUTION WHILE TRAVELING...
ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND ELEVATED ROADWAYS.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Don't know about the roads, and again, about a 70% chance of school at Trinity High School in Euless.

Still thinking 70%?

If NWS is correct, about a 40% chance of school, and if WRF correct, a three day weekend.

[CaptinCrunch]

Look for rain to change over to all snow earlier than first thought across the D/FW area, and a winter storm watch or warnning may need to be issued by the 3pm update. Earlier forecast of 1 to 3 inches around the I-20 area and 3 to 5 to the north may be a little low. I would say 2-4 for the D/FW area and 4-6 to the north with higher amounts closer to the Red River. Current Temp here in down town FTW is 36 with light rain mixing with sleet.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Snow in ABI started a couple of hours earlier than I expected.



But, sadly, it may be ending earlier than I expected.

I'm hoping, but not certain, the lobe of vorticity visible on water vapor, swinging from New Mexico towards El Paso and Chihuahua will help spark more snow in a few hours for ABI

[Ed Mahmoud]

WHOOOOOOOOOOO-HOOOOOOOOOOO!! A Winter Weather MD from SPC!

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0360
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1038 AM CST THU MAR 06 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN TX...SRN OK

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 061638Z - 062245Z

HEAVY SNOW RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
FROM N CNTRL TX INTO SRN OK.

AS UPPER TROUGH EJECTS EWD...DEEP THERMAL PACKING AND
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL RESULT IN A CONSOLIDATING BAND OF HEAVY
SNOW FROM NRN TX INTO SRN OK. THE CORRIDOR OF HEAVIEST SNOW AND
STRONGEST LIFT IS EXPECTED TO LIE ALONG AN AXIS FROM GRAHAM TO
GAINESVILLE TO ARDMORE TO DURANT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW RATES ARE
EXPECTED AFTER 21Z WHEN LIFT IS STRONGEST. NRN AND WRN PORTIONS OF
THE MD AREA...ALONG AND W OF A ADM TO RPH LINE...WILL BE ALL
SNOW...WITH AREAS TO THE SE GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM RAIN TO
SNOW. THE RAIN SNOW LINE WILL BE NEAR A DENTON TO FT. WORTH LINE
AROUND 00Z. AROUND THAT TIME...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO A HEAVY WET SNOW
WITH BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE JUST ON THE NW SIDE OF THIS
RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION ZONE.

..JEWELL.. 03/06/2008

[CaptinCrunch]

All sleet and heavy at tmes now in FTW

[Texas Snowman]

From OKC NWS office:

000
FXUS64 KOUN 061631
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1031 AM CST THU MAR 6 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO NARROW THE EXPECTED REGION OF HEAVY
SNOW FOR TODAY/TONIGHT. BASED ON THIS... PLUS THE TRENDS BEGINNING
TO SHOW ON RADAR... WE HAVE DROPPED THREE ADDITIONAL COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FROM THE WINTER STORM WARNING... AND PLACED THEM
IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THE
GEOGRAPHIC DETAILS OF THIS EVENT... WE MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE A FEW
ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS
THAT THE HEAVY SNOWFALL AREA WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
WAURIKA... TO PAULS VALLEY... TO WEWOKA AND HOLDENVILLE. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT CLAY COUNTY TEXAS MAY SEE SOME SIGNFICANT SNOWFALL
AS WELL... BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE DURATION OF
SNOWFALL WILL HOLD TOTALS DOWN TO ADVISORY LEVELS. CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL GREATLY COMPLICATE
FINAL SNOWFALL TOTALS... IN THAT IT IS QUITE LIKELY THAT A FEW
LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE VERY LARGE SNOWFALL TOTALS... WHILE JUST A
FEW MILES AWAY... MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR.

Johnny, if you're still online, looks as if the Red River region east of I-35 either side of the Texas/Oklahoma line will be a bulls-eye zone for snow chasing. Who knows, maybe a foot plus in some areas?

And of course, if the WRF is correct, could be a historic late season snowstorm setting up for N.C. Texas and the Big D region!

Also, just checked NWS point and click and with Sherman at 34 degrees with drizzle, forecast is now for 1-3 inches of snow this afternoon and 3-5 inches tonight, so maybe 8 inches in the Red River counties.

Here's hoping that all of this verifies!

Tx Snowman

[gboudx]

All sleet and heavy at tmes now in FTW

Hearing about any road problems?

[Portastorm]

Meanwhile, the NWSFO Austin/San Antonio is not showing the least bit concerned about any snow or ice. Here's their mid morning update:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1105 AM CST THU MAR 6 2008

.UPDATE...
BASED ON THE PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT HAVE UPDATED TO LOWER MAX
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. MOST OTHER CHANGES WERE COSMETIC WITH
TONIGHTS WINDS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. WILL NEED
TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS FOR FRIDAY;
WETTING RAINS SHOULD COVER ABOUT HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS, AND
THE DRIER WESTERN AREAS WILL APPROACH CRITCAL LEVELS OF WIND AND
RH.

[CaptinCrunch]

Area of heavy sleet moved thru, and has changed back to a light rain/light sleet mix with more sleet than rain

[CaptinCrunch]

All sleet and heavy at tmes now in FTW

Hearing about any road problems?

Looking out the window at the I-30 - I-35 interchange (FTW), traffic is slow on the bridges and overpasses but moving at a steady pace. Traffiic on both highways are moving along as normal.

[southerngale]

I completely understand, Johnny. If I could get away right now, I'd be right there with you! I've been waiting many years to build a snowman, or even a snowball! I will probably have to "chase" it as well if I ever want to play in the snow. It sure doesn't come to me.

[TexasStooge]

This is NOT looking good!!

The National Weather Service has upgraded the Snow Advisory to a WINTER STORM WARNING for areas along and north of a Comanche, Granbury, DFW, and Sulphur Springs line!!

Some rain in the northwest portions of North Texas has already changed to sleet & snow.

NWS - Fort Worth

[CaptinCrunch]

Change over from rain to sleet/snow line is now from east of Gainsville, to Denten, to Weatherford, to Stephensville, with all snow showing from Decatur to M.Wells and tothe NW.

[AggieSpirit]

HEAVY SLEET with Lightning here in Coppell (2 miles northeast of DFW airport!)