TX winter wx thread: Spring-like pattern

[Ed Mahmoud]

The old ETA model (the one replaced by the WRF as the NAM) shows DFW on screaming edge of rain/snow line, with possibly decent snow accumulation, or maybe just a lot of cold rain.

The close-up regional 12Z WRF/NAM isn't up on PSU site, but the 12Z WRF also appears to show an tight-rope between what could be a major snowstorm, a minor slush storm, or just rain.

I'm noticing the 850 mb freezing and 540 dm thickness are not lining up. In the heart of winter, this often suggests shallow cold airmasses with sleet, or even freezing rain South of the 850 mb freezing line. Not so sure about that in March with higher sun angle, and I don't know enough about the mechanics of snowfall to know if freezing at 850 mb is good enough to generate snow (only that it seems to get snow down). The closeup WRF is out, but I don't see a magic 284 dm 1000-700 mb line drawn in.

Give me a minute...

[Ed Mahmoud]

If SLP were 1000 mb, I could figure out the thickness easily enough from the heights...




Not quite that easy...

[Ed Mahmoud]

OK, per 12Z WRF p-type on PPV AccuWx, at 6 pm Thursday, Northern part of Metroplex is going from rain to snow with a very small trnasition zone, DFW itself still rain, 9pm rain/snow line is in Metroplex, snow ends around lunchtime in DFW Friday.

So, I'll g back to PSU closeup loop w/ 3 hour increments, and guesstimate precip 9 pm to 12 pm for DFW...

Very unscientifically, 0.25, 0, 0.01, 0.05 and 0.01 liquid equivalent in DFW based on WRF, with most falling during nightime hours, when sunlight through clouds is not warming asphalt. Or 0.32 inches liquid equivalent. 3 inches. Based solely on 12Z WRF, and considering road snow is probably half that, and just wet on travelled roads, I give the HEB ISD a 35% chance of no school on Friday. My sister went to Trinity High, and since the influx of a lot of 6'5" plus 250 pound Samoan and Tongan students, the Trinity Trojans are a power in Texas high school football. I went to Catholic school, and got cut from the freshman team, and never tried again, to my everlasting shame.

[Texas Snowman]

Johnny,

I don't know how accurate it will turn out to be, but the Accuweather accumulated snowfall model is showing a bulls-eye of 6-10 inches of snow over south central Oklahoma and north central Texas near Lake Texoma.

Same area that got hammered earlier this week with 4-7" of snow.

Tx Snowman

[Texas Snowman]

Also, DFW NWS is now showing graphic for accumulation of up to an inch in portions of North Texas.

And the OKC NWS office has issued Winter Storm Warnings and Watches for south central Oklahoma.

/O.NEW.KOUN.WS.W.0003.080306T1200Z-080307T1200Z/
OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-
HUGHES-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-CARTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OKLAHOMA CITY...CHANDLER...CHICKASHA...
PURCELL...NORMAN...MOORE...SHAWNEE...SEMINOLE...HOLDENVILLE...
DUNCAN...PAULS VALLEY...SULPHUR...ADA...ARDMORE
1153 AM CST WED MAR 5 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM CST
FRIDAY...

A MIXTURE OF RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER
THE WARNING AREA EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING HEAVIER AND
CHANGING COMPLETELY TO SNOW BY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE SNOW MAY
BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM
AS LITTLE AS 3 TO 4 INCHES...TO AS MUCH AS 7 TO 10 INCHES LOCALLY.

THESE AMOUNTS OF SNOW HAVE THE ABILITY TO MAKE TRAVEL EXTREMELY
DIFFICULT OR PERHAPS IMPOSSIBLE. POWER OUTAGES MAY ALSO RESULT
DUE TO THE HEAVY WEIGHT OF THE SNOW.

Just to the south and east near Lake Texoma, Winter Storm Watch is in effect for possible accumulations in the 3-6" range.

The plot thickens...

Tx Snowman

[Ed Mahmoud]

12Z GFS shows thicknesses/850 mb temps becoming right for snow in DFW right between 6 pm and 9 pm. Precip shuts down shortly after 9pm in the DFW area. If it changes at 6 pm, there might be a little light snow, 9 pm, a flurry, maybe, or maybe not. So 12Z GFS is a killjoy for DFW. But notice Wichita Falls, maybe Mineral Wells, should start changing over between lunch and 3 pm. That could be 3 or 6 inches of pure happiness.

To review, the 12Z WRF is a little nicer to DFW. I guesstimated a little over 3 tenths of an inch of liquid equivalent after the change, so 3 inches on grassy/eleated surfaces. Don't know about the roads, and again, about a 70% chance of school at Trinity High School in Euless.

[Johnny]

Thanks for the info TS....much appreciated.

Is JB saying anything about snowfall totals in South Central, Oklahoma or Northeast, Texas?

Should I head out towards Austin or should I point myself northward just north or northeast of Dallas?

[srainhoutx]

And if things weren't interesting enough for forecasting, SPC has a Slight Risk up for Coastal TX in 2 day outlook...

SPC AC 051733

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 AM CST WED MAR 05 2008

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS TX COASTAL PLAIN...

...SYNOPSIS...
CENTRAL NORTH AMERICAN LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FCST TO PERSIST THROUGH
PERIOD...AS STG SHORTWAVE NOW OVER NERN CONUS EJECTS NEWD ACROSS
LABRADOR AND FAR NRN ATLANTIC. UPSTREAM...POSITIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND VWP
DATA FROM CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO SRN NV -- IS FCST TO DIG SEWD
SLOWLY ACROSS 4-CORNERS REGION DAY--1...THEN AMPLIFY AND PIVOT EWD
ACROSS ERN NM AND W TX THIS PERIOD.

FRONTAL ZONE IS EVIDENT IN SFC ANALYSES AND VIS IMAGERY FROM S FL
WSWWD ACROSS SERN GULF...BECOMING DIFFUSE AND MORE MANIFEST AS A
MOISTURE INSTEAD OF THERMAL BOUNDARY WWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL GULF. WRN
SEGMENT OF THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS NERN MEX AND DEEP S TX.
SFC LOW SHOULD DEVELOP BY 6/12Z AROUND TX/MEX BORDER INVOF
LRD...THEN LIFT NEWD ACROSS TX COASTAL PLAIN. LOW SHOULD OUTRUN
MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER AND MOVE INTO COLDER SFC AIR ACROSS PORTIONS
LA/MS LATE IN PERIOD...WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD DOWN
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND TX COAST INTO NWRN GULF. DRYLINE SHOULD
EXTEND S OF LOW INTO NERN MEX...AND MAY MOVE EWD ACROSS DEEP S TX
TOMORROW AFTERNOON BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY COLD FRONT.
MARINE/WARM FRONT SHOULD RETURN NWD TO PORTIONS MIDDLE/UPPER TX
COAST BEFORE COLD FRONT SWEEPS OVER AREA...BUT SHOULD REMAIN S OF
GULF COAST FROM JUST OFFSHORE LA EWD TO NRN/CENTRAL FL.

...LOWER-MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN...S OF I-10...
CAPPING WILL RESTRICT EXTENT/EARLINESS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR
MUCH OF DIURNAL HEATING PERIOD. HOWEVER...SFC-BASED TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER THIS REGION DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...INVOF
SFC LOW AND PERHAPS TRAILING DRYLINE...WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND ANTECEDENT SFC HEATING EACH SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED. SUPERCELLS
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUST ARE POSSIBLE. TORNADO POTENTIAL
APPEARS MODE CONDITIONAL...GIVEN STG HEATING/MIXING LIKELY OVER MOST
OF WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...SOME POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES MAY OCCUR
WITH ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION INTERACTING WITH RETURNING MARINE/WARM
FRONT....WHERE LCLS MAY LOWER SUBSTANTIALLY WHILE MAINTAINING
SFC-BASED INFLOW. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FCST TO INCREASE
THROUGHOUT DAY PRIOR TO DRYLINE/FRONTAL PASSAGE...AS HEIGHT
GRADIENTS ALOFT TIGHTEN AHEAD OF DIGGING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
0-1 KM SRH 150-200 J/KG IS POSSIBLE IN WARM SECTOR...DOUBLE THAT
ALONG MARINE FRONT. TSTMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO LINEAR MCS THAT CROSSES
WARM FRONT DURING EVENING...NRN PORTION OF WHICH WOULD HAVE ELEVATED
INFLOW.

...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN TX...COASTAL LA...
TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME AND SHIFT EWD OVERNIGHT FROM
E TX ACROSS LA...MS...SRN AL...FL PANHANDLE...AS INCREASINGLY MOIST
PARCELS ARE FORCED TO LFC BY STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH 40-50 KT LLJ. PRIND SFC-BASED INFLOW PARCELS WILL
REMAIN OVER GULF...GIVEN LOW LEVEL WIND/TRAJECTORY PROGS THAT
INDICATE SELY COMPONENT OF FLOW REINFORCING NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER
ALONG COAST AND INLAND. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF MOISTURE ADVECTION
AROUND 850 MB...LAPSE RATES/BUOYANCY ALOFT...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
LIFT...AND FAVORABLE ELEVATED BULK SHEAR VALUES ACROSS THIS REGION
SUGGEST MRGL SVR POTENTIAL IN FORM OF HAIL...ALONG WITH ISOLATED STG
GUSTS.

FARTHER N...BUOYANCY IS FCST TO DECREASE AND BECOME PROGRESSIVELY
MORE ELEVATED ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH NWD EXTENT.
HOWEVER...NAM-KF AND SPECTRAL FCST SOUNDINGS REASONABLY SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT CAPE IN FAVORABLE ICING LAYERS FOR THUNDER...EVEN AS FAR
N AS PROSPECTIVE SNOWFALL AREAS OF SRN/ERN OK AND WRN AR...AMIDST
STG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT.

..EDWARDS.. 03/05/2008


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

[srainhoutx]

And if things weren't interesting enough for forecasting, SPC has a Slight Risk up for Coastal TX in 2 day outlook...

SPC AC 051733

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 AM CST WED MAR 05 2008

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS TX COASTAL PLAIN...

...SYNOPSIS...
CENTRAL NORTH AMERICAN LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FCST TO PERSIST THROUGH
PERIOD...AS STG SHORTWAVE NOW OVER NERN CONUS EJECTS NEWD ACROSS
LABRADOR AND FAR NRN ATLANTIC. UPSTREAM...POSITIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND VWP
DATA FROM CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO SRN NV -- IS FCST TO DIG SEWD
SLOWLY ACROSS 4-CORNERS REGION DAY--1...THEN AMPLIFY AND PIVOT EWD
ACROSS ERN NM AND W TX THIS PERIOD.

FRONTAL ZONE IS EVIDENT IN SFC ANALYSES AND VIS IMAGERY FROM S FL
WSWWD ACROSS SERN GULF...BECOMING DIFFUSE AND MORE MANIFEST AS A
MOISTURE INSTEAD OF THERMAL BOUNDARY WWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL GULF. WRN
SEGMENT OF THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS NERN MEX AND DEEP S TX.
SFC LOW SHOULD DEVELOP BY 6/12Z AROUND TX/MEX BORDER INVOF
LRD...THEN LIFT NEWD ACROSS TX COASTAL PLAIN. LOW SHOULD OUTRUN
MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER AND MOVE INTO COLDER SFC AIR ACROSS PORTIONS
LA/MS LATE IN PERIOD...WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD DOWN
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND TX COAST INTO NWRN GULF. DRYLINE SHOULD
EXTEND S OF LOW INTO NERN MEX...AND MAY MOVE EWD ACROSS DEEP S TX
TOMORROW AFTERNOON BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY COLD FRONT.
MARINE/WARM FRONT SHOULD RETURN NWD TO PORTIONS MIDDLE/UPPER TX
COAST BEFORE COLD FRONT SWEEPS OVER AREA...BUT SHOULD REMAIN S OF
GULF COAST FROM JUST OFFSHORE LA EWD TO NRN/CENTRAL FL.

...LOWER-MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN...S OF I-10...
CAPPING WILL RESTRICT EXTENT/EARLINESS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR
MUCH OF DIURNAL HEATING PERIOD. HOWEVER...SFC-BASED TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER THIS REGION DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...INVOF
SFC LOW AND PERHAPS TRAILING DRYLINE...WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND ANTECEDENT SFC HEATING EACH SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED. SUPERCELLS
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUST ARE POSSIBLE. TORNADO POTENTIAL
APPEARS MODE CONDITIONAL...GIVEN STG HEATING/MIXING LIKELY OVER MOST
OF WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...SOME POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES MAY OCCUR
WITH ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION INTERACTING WITH RETURNING MARINE/WARM
FRONT....WHERE LCLS MAY LOWER SUBSTANTIALLY WHILE MAINTAINING
SFC-BASED INFLOW. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FCST TO INCREASE
THROUGHOUT DAY PRIOR TO DRYLINE/FRONTAL PASSAGE...AS HEIGHT
GRADIENTS ALOFT TIGHTEN AHEAD OF DIGGING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
0-1 KM SRH 150-200 J/KG IS POSSIBLE IN WARM SECTOR...DOUBLE THAT
ALONG MARINE FRONT. TSTMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO LINEAR MCS THAT CROSSES
WARM FRONT DURING EVENING...NRN PORTION OF WHICH WOULD HAVE ELEVATED
INFLOW.

...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN TX...COASTAL LA...
TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME AND SHIFT EWD OVERNIGHT FROM
E TX ACROSS LA...MS...SRN AL...FL PANHANDLE...AS INCREASINGLY MOIST
PARCELS ARE FORCED TO LFC BY STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH 40-50 KT LLJ. PRIND SFC-BASED INFLOW PARCELS WILL
REMAIN OVER GULF...GIVEN LOW LEVEL WIND/TRAJECTORY PROGS THAT
INDICATE SELY COMPONENT OF FLOW REINFORCING NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER
ALONG COAST AND INLAND. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF MOISTURE ADVECTION
AROUND 850 MB...LAPSE RATES/BUOYANCY ALOFT...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
LIFT...AND FAVORABLE ELEVATED BULK SHEAR VALUES ACROSS THIS REGION
SUGGEST MRGL SVR POTENTIAL IN FORM OF HAIL...ALONG WITH ISOLATED STG
GUSTS.

FARTHER N...BUOYANCY IS FCST TO DECREASE AND BECOME PROGRESSIVELY
MORE ELEVATED ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH NWD EXTENT.
HOWEVER...NAM-KF AND SPECTRAL FCST SOUNDINGS REASONABLY SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT CAPE IN FAVORABLE ICING LAYERS FOR THUNDER...EVEN AS FAR
N AS PROSPECTIVE SNOWFALL AREAS OF SRN/ERN OK AND WRN AR...AMIDST
STG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT.
..EDWARDS.. 03/05/2008


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

[PTrackerLA]

12z GFS shows light precip over LA with 0 degree 850mb temp line well into gulf. Would this imply possible snow flurries in LA?


Also, the 12z NAM shows the -10C thickness line reaching almost touching Baton Rouge but with less precip at 72 hours:




Could become interesting if there is enough precip still around, thoughts?

[shibumi]

Remember that the precipitaion on these maps is for the 6 hours ending at the time shown. The heights are shown for the time indicated....so really you have to look at the precip from the second time frame and apply it to the previous 6 hour map for the heights....

Make sense?

It is not exact as the heights maps are snapshots while the precip is over a 6 hour timeframe

[Ed Mahmoud]

No guarantee 18Z WRF is even correct, but if you look at when the change to snow would occur, around 9 pm, and the gradient in the 3 hour precip between 9pm and midnight tomorrow, almost impossible to make a forecast. One inch? Six inches? And all from one model, just eyeball and resolution issues.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Remember that the precipitaion on these maps is for the 6 hours ending at the time shown. The heights are shown for the time indicated....so really you have to look at the precip from the second time frame and apply it to the previous 6 hour map for the heights....

Make sense?

It is not exact as the heights maps are snapshots while the precip is over a 6 hour timeframe

That is why I look at the 3 hour time change available on the PSU e-Wall, try to time precip changes, and then eyeball next 3 hours of precip. And even then, there is an element of guess-work.

[Texas Snowman]

Johnny,

As to where you should set up shop, I'll let better qualified people help you there. I'd hate to have you come too far north and get busted (as I'm sure you know, that happens just as often this far north as it does elsewhere in the state. For every one snowfall forecast that is right on, there are four or five that weren't.)

That being said, it appears from NWS products that the Red River vicinity near Gainesville, Tx on I-35 wouldn't be a bad spot to pre-position. That's in anticipation of OKC being correct with a bulls-eye of heavy snow just across the river. If things happen south towards Dallas, Waco, etc. you'll be on the right spot to retreat.

FYI, around noon, OKC NWS issued a graphical map that might help quantify the snow total possibilities in N. Tx. and S. Ok.

Here's the link: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/enhanced.php

Also, from their office: Weather Synopsis...Heavy snow, possibly mixed with sleet at times, will fall over parts of central and south-central Oklahoma Thursday into Thursday night. Lighter amounts of snow are expected across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas. The storm system will also bring a chance of flooding rain to southeast Oklahoma.

Good luck on catching this potential snowstorm.

Tx Snowman

[gboudx]

QPF must've greatly increased in the DFW area for tomorrow and tomorrow night. I see that most of the area has a 90% chance of rain/snow tomorrow and 90% chance of rain/snow tomorrow night. High tomorrow of 38. Can't wait for the afternoon AFD.

[Johnny]

Great info TS!! Now all I have to do is convince the wife that we WILL see snow up that way. lol

I'll show her these maps when I get home. Much appreciated.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Now, hail isn't really winter weather, but it is frozen. I can't order up a skew-T for HOU from the NIU site, as they are only available in 6 hour increments, and only from the 0Z and 12Z runs.

But, checking the AccuWx PPV map, our total-totals in HOU between 50 and 55, our surface based CAPE is right about 500 J/Kg, and the most unstable CAPE (from Utah U met dept site) is between 750 and 1000 J/Kg, and deep layer shear is about 60 knots.




So, if enough hail were to accumulate tomorrow evening, I might count it as a moral victory, and act like it was sleet, once the danger of lightning passed. Run around, and make hail balls or something.

[Johnny]

From the Dallas/Fort Worth office...

HAVE ADJUSTED THE SNOW LINE NORTH TO A LINE EXTENDING FROM
HAMILTON...TO CORSICANA...TO ATHENS. WILL CONTINUE WITH SNOWFALL
TOTALS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 AROUND ONE INCH WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
TO THE SOUTH. WILL NOT ISSUE A SNOW ADVISORY BASED ON THIS
FORECAST BUT WILL ISSUE AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING THE EVENT.
RESERVATIONS ABOUT THIS SNOW FORECAST INCLUDE THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COLD AIR IN TIME WITH THE BEST LIFT TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
OF SNOW. IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS SHOW BETTER TIMING AND DYNAMICS...A
SNOW ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED. ONE CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICY SPOTS TO FORM ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT EXPECTED TO FALL NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING...RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD FREEZE ON ELEVATED SURFACES
RESULTING IN SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES.

[gboudx]

Email from Jeff Lindner:

Another winter storm to impact N TX Thursday and Thursday night.



Discussion:



Next upper trough and associated arctic cold front moving toward TX this afternoon. Cold arctic air mass is starting to bleed out of Canada and will arrive into N TX during the day on Thursday. As this happens an upper trough over the N Rockies will drop SSW and then move SE across TX bringing moisture and strong lift atop the cold surface air mass. After much model interrogation and air column forecast soundings there appears to be a chance of snow across N TX Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.



Per GFS soundings the air column is frozen from the surface on up after about 600pm Thursday supporting a change of the rain to snow. May see a period of rain/snow mix during the mid to late afternoon and NW counties and Red River counties may change to all snow by just after lunch. Surface temps. will warm to the low 40’s before the onset of precip. and additional cold air advection drives them into the mid –upper 30’s by sunset. Event may be similar to Monday where surface temps. are above freezing and most of what falls melts…however some accumulation will be possible along and N of I-20 and some areas could get several inches where snows begin early and mesoscale bands develop.



Will look at the event again Thursday morning and Winter Storm Watches may be required early Thursday. Persons should remain updated on forecast and be prepared for rapidly changing weather conditions Thursday afternoon and evening.

[Texas Snowman]

WOW!

Just checked out the OKS forecast discussion and found this:

REGARDING SNOWFALL TOTALS...OUR THINKING IS FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW TO
FALL NEAR AND JUST OF INTERSTATE 44 WHERE AMOUNTS MAY VARY BETWEEN A
LOW END TOTAL OF 3 TO 4 INCHES (WITH SOME SLEET) TO AS MUCH AS 7 TO
10 INCHES WHERE SLEET FALLS LESS OFTEN AND WHERE THE SNOW RATIOS ARE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DUE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES. IF WE WERE TO USE MODEL
SNOW ALGORITHM VALUES THAT USE A SIMPLIFIED SYSTEM OF DEEP LAYER
THICKNESS THRESHOLDS AND ASSUME A 10:1 SNOW RATIO...SNOW TOTALS MAY
BE MORE IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 INCHES FROM JUST OF INTERSTATE 44
SOUTHWARD TO NEAR SHAWNEE...SEMINOLE...HOLDENVILLE ...AND ADA. THESE
TOTALS ARE NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO REACH. HOWEVER...WE EXPECT THAT SOME OF
THE QPF WILL FALL AS SLEET AND OR RAIN ALONG WITH SOME MELTING
OCCURRING FROM THE WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES. THUS OUR SNOW TOTAL FORECAST
CONSIDERED AN AVERAGE OF THE MODEL VALUES WHILE ALSO REMOVING THE
PEAK MODEL VALUES AND INCORPORATING LOWER SNOWFALL RATIOS THAN THE
MODELS USE AND SOME MELTING (BOTH DURING AND AFTER SNOW FALLING).

I do remember a set-up a few years ago where mesoscale bands dumped massive amounts of snow around Eufaula, Okla. to the tune of 17". And I've seen mesoscale snow events dump 8-10 inches on the north side of the Red River near Tishomingo and Durant on a couple of occasions.

And every so often, like the Valentine's Day snow a couple of years ago and the other night, those mesoscale snow events will set up right and dump their load on the south side of the RR in the U.S. Hwy. 82 corridor.

I guess we'll see...hoping that we get one more serious dump here in the Red River counties before calling winter a wrap. And that many of the rest of my fellow snow geese in Texas can get a fix of snowflakes too before severe weather season takes over.

What can I say - I love snow!

Tx Snowman