Watching For the Monsoon
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- Aslkahuna
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Ordinarily
the monsoon starts in NM about 2-4 weeks before it starts here, however, isolated thunderstorms don't usually mean that the monsoon is in progress since when the monsoon is active we have far more than isolated boomers.
Steve
Steve
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Sooner or Later????
OK - let's see - Steve says the 8th for monsoons in Sierra Vista. Since they
need to get going before Phoenix kicks in (theoretically), and we need
some big inflow from SV & the White Mountains......I'm going to be
stubborn and say that Phoenix won't get biggie storms/rain until around
July 15. May be wrong on that- I admit it - but unless things turn around on
a dime, the change is waaaaay too slow yet.
I won't mind missing this one and if she comes in earlier, GREAT! ....
....and I hear Steve snickering in the background because it's probably
right around the corner 'a la Frontera' undercover with the lights out...
ready to pounce in when no one's watching....hehehe..... :black:
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- Stephanie
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Re: Ordinarily
Aslkahuna wrote:the monsoon starts in NM about 2-4 weeks before it starts here, however, isolated thunderstorms don't usually mean that the monsoon is in progress since when the monsoon is active we have far more than isolated boomers.
Steve
Gotcha!

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- Aslkahuna
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My Outlook
that I posted last May on my homepage said 7-11 July for the start. However, my latest look at the data indicates that I may have been too optimistic and may have to go with my son's estimate ofa week later-he's going for July 18th and my initial assessment from the data search says 14-19 July so I will probably revise my outlook if tomorrows data look says the same thing. Based upon average start date, the monsoon will be officially late if it does not come this weekend.
Steve
Steve
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- Aslkahuna
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Beginning to Look Like
July 1987 which was windy, hot and dry for the first half of the month with a number of fires including a massive structure fire on FHU. There was what appears to be a false start on the 14th but then we didn't get into real monsoon conditions until the 24th. Fortunately, we had decent rains in August and September. Like this year, 1987 was a Nino------>Nina year and was one of the analogs I looked at for my outlook. However, since I don't have temperature data here at the house for 1987 I didn't use it. Probably should have in retrospect then I would have gone for a later start. Looks like a long haul for the start.
Steve
Steve
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Kahuna Prognostications
Aslkahuna wrote:
July 1987 which was windy, hot and dry for the first half of the month with
a number of fires including a massive structure fire on FHU. There was
what appears to be a false start on the 14th but then we didn't get into real
monsoon conditions until the 24th. Fortunately, we had decent rains in
August and September. Like this year, 1987 was a Nino------>Nina year
and was one of the analogs I looked at for my outlook. However, since I
don't have temperature data here at the house for 1987 I didn't use it.
Probably should have in retrospect then I would have gone for a later
start. Looks like a long haul for the start.
Steve
SB2 I've just finished reading your monsoon discussion + rationale on
your website and like the differences that you added this year between
Sierra Vista and Tucson/Phoenix. I think that's important since you're
really in a totally different environment up there - and due to your
altitude - you're near the 850MB level right off the bat - you're going to
have conditions for a more precise monsoon onset 'call' than we are,
depending on storm intensities from outflow of course. Going from your
location to here, you're really high, Tucson is somewhat lower and we're
really low (in the pits so to speak) - and a heat-sink at that. If we're closer
to mirroring 1987 then we're still in for a pre-monsoonal Heat Blast that we
really have not had yet down here. Now I know you said that we don't
necessarily need one, but it's been way, way too cool here in Phx this
summer 'for summer.' This is balmy - 110F? That's nothing. Where's the
egg-cooking 117F that we're still expecting to jump out of the box? I think
it's still on the way....maybe between now -July4 - and the actual onset?
Or if there is a false start up here, that will be enough to drive temps out
the chimney. You guys cool down; we heat up. Our overnight temps won't
go below 102-103F during the full heat blast of the 'Soon. That's the time
when everyone wants to leave town,lol. The A/C never shuts off for weeks
and weeks - it runs continuously. Plus we have a water shortage...it's
going to be an interesting summer season. You're right about duration
though, as the monsoon will probably last until late September sometime.
A few years ago, we had our two worst weeks of storms in mid/late
September with downbursts taking out powerpoles and trees all over town,
turning roofs into frisbees and blowing sand into every nook & crannie
that wasn't plugged in the house. Whew - another one of those???
July 1987 which was windy, hot and dry for the first half of the month with
a number of fires including a massive structure fire on FHU. There was
what appears to be a false start on the 14th but then we didn't get into real
monsoon conditions until the 24th. Fortunately, we had decent rains in
August and September. Like this year, 1987 was a Nino------>Nina year
and was one of the analogs I looked at for my outlook. However, since I
don't have temperature data here at the house for 1987 I didn't use it.
Probably should have in retrospect then I would have gone for a later
start. Looks like a long haul for the start.
Steve
SB2 I've just finished reading your monsoon discussion + rationale on
your website and like the differences that you added this year between
Sierra Vista and Tucson/Phoenix. I think that's important since you're
really in a totally different environment up there - and due to your
altitude - you're near the 850MB level right off the bat - you're going to
have conditions for a more precise monsoon onset 'call' than we are,
depending on storm intensities from outflow of course. Going from your
location to here, you're really high, Tucson is somewhat lower and we're
really low (in the pits so to speak) - and a heat-sink at that. If we're closer
to mirroring 1987 then we're still in for a pre-monsoonal Heat Blast that we
really have not had yet down here. Now I know you said that we don't
necessarily need one, but it's been way, way too cool here in Phx this
summer 'for summer.' This is balmy - 110F? That's nothing. Where's the
egg-cooking 117F that we're still expecting to jump out of the box? I think
it's still on the way....maybe between now -July4 - and the actual onset?
Or if there is a false start up here, that will be enough to drive temps out
the chimney. You guys cool down; we heat up. Our overnight temps won't
go below 102-103F during the full heat blast of the 'Soon. That's the time
when everyone wants to leave town,lol. The A/C never shuts off for weeks
and weeks - it runs continuously. Plus we have a water shortage...it's
going to be an interesting summer season. You're right about duration
though, as the monsoon will probably last until late September sometime.
A few years ago, we had our two worst weeks of storms in mid/late
September with downbursts taking out powerpoles and trees all over town,
turning roofs into frisbees and blowing sand into every nook & crannie
that wasn't plugged in the house. Whew - another one of those???
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- Aslkahuna
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No Monsoon Start Today
that means it is now officially late based upon average start dates around the State which combine to give us a statewide start date of July 4th. Here in Sierra Vista we have another day to go but the pattern is totally unfavorable into next week. TUS isn't even trying to go for anything through next Thursday (the 10th) though they hint that the modesl are showing a more favorable pattern by late next week. The smoke haze makes it impossible to tell visually what's happening in Sonora but the satellite imagery didn't show much down there.
Steve
Steve
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- Aslkahuna
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The Mid 1990's
had some really active Septembers from 1994 through 1997 when we had all sorts of severe weather events and funnels clouds and tornadoes. The severe weather event on the night of my birthday into the next morning (27-28th) in 1995 was one of the most widespread and intense ones ever to visit AZ and is still studied at the UofA
Steve
Steve
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- Aslkahuna
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The GFS
brings the monsoon moisture boundary through Sierra Vista on the 11th and through most of the rest of AZ on the 12th and keeps it in place with the usual day to day variability. Prior to that it sends a 594+ Dm High across the state into the Central US-that will trigger the heat blast if it happens.
Steve
Steve
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- Aslkahuna
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Weeeellllll
with temperatures running 8-10 Above normal right now, I would say that we are getting it already. I was looking at some climo since I wanted to verify my impression of last month (hotter than average) since the Temperature departure map on the CPC site had AZ cooler than average (which turns out to be total crap from the data I saw)-anyway, while there I noted that the although the monsoon has never failed to occur, it HAS be really pathetic at times. In 1924, Tucson had a total of 1.29in of rain for the whole monsoon-a repeat of that occurrence would be too painful to contemplate and a total disaster now.
Steve
Steve
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- Aslkahuna
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At This Point in Time
it does not appear that the monsoon will start by July 11th. The models bring the moisture boundary up to us on the 12th but don't hold it there. I will be reviewing the data and will revise my outlook tomorrow. Thunderstorms that formed along a moisture gradient this afternoon south of us are headed south and the outlook for the next three days is continued hot and dry.
Steve
Steve
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- Aslkahuna
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We Are Now
in the time period that I outlooked for monsoon start-not going to happen. The problem is trying to figure out WHEN-the models are so wishy washy on this that I could go for a start date as early as the 12-14 or as late as August. Right now I'm leaning towards 16-22 July which would be a record late start but since the eyeball searing premonsoon heat blast is now upon us, there IS a chance it could break something loose-Tucson talking about big time dry boomers with very high winds towards week's end. I will delay my update until tomorrow and will then post it on my homepage. Biggest problem is that excess energy in the westerlies courtesy of the Nino needs to dissipate before we can get into the monsoon pattern and since we are in neutral ENSO now with the near total collapse of the cold SST anomalies that we saw earlier, we don't have any developing Nina to provide a positive signal.
Steve
Steve
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There is a huge heat wave on its way to the Southwestern areas of the United States beginning tomorrow. Even coastal areas will not escape the full scorching effects of this heat wave as temps will soar into the 80s and even 90s in inland areas of the coastal plain, like in my area, for which I have provided the forecast below:
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA 230 PM PDT MON JUL 7 2003
TONIGHT...CLEAR...BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF FOG... LOWS 57 TO 63.
TUESDAY...SUNNY... AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING... HIGHS 72 TO 88
TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEAR... PATCHY FOG LATE... LOWS 58 TO 66
WEDNESDAY...SUNNY... PATCHY MORNING FOG... HIGHS 74 TO 92
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR... LOWS 60 TO 68
THURSDAY...SUNNY... HIGHS 76 TO 94
FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR... LOWS IN THE 60S... HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 90S.
SATURDAY...CLEAR... PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING FOG... LOWS IN THE 60S HIGHS 75 TO 90.
SUNDAY...CLEAR... AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING FOG... LOWS IN THE 60S HIGHS 72 TO 87.
MONDAY...CLOUDY DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING...OTHERWISE CLEAR LOWS 55 TO 65. HIGHS 70 TO 85.
Look at Death Valley though... :o :o
DEATH VALLEY NATIONAL PARK-
INCLUDING FURNACE CREEK...STOVEPIPE WELLS...SHOSHONE...TECOPA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV 330 PM PDT MON JUL 7 2003
TONIGHT...CLEAR... LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S... SOUTH WIND 5 TO 15 MPH
TUESDAY...SUNNY... HIGHS NEAR 118... SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH
TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEAR... LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S... SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY...SUNNY... SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH... HIGHS NEAR 122
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLEAR... SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH BECOMING LIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 80S.
THURSDAY...SUNNY... HIGHS NEAR 123
FRIDAY...SUNNY... LOWS IN THE MID 80S... HIGHS NEAR 124
SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY... LOWS IN THE MID 80S... HIGHS NEAR 123
SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY... LOWS IN THE MID 80S... HIGHS NEAR 121
MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY... LOWS IN THE MID 80S... HIGHS NEAR 120
I live about 3 or 4 miles from the beach. So on Tuesday and maybe Wednesday, I will see some fog according to this forecast; but then it will warm up in a hurry. I predict the following temps for my city, Huntington Beach, CA:
I will let you know how my predictions go.
EDIT: Added Death Valley part and enlarged small text.
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA 230 PM PDT MON JUL 7 2003
TONIGHT...CLEAR...BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF FOG... LOWS 57 TO 63.
TUESDAY...SUNNY... AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING... HIGHS 72 TO 88
TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEAR... PATCHY FOG LATE... LOWS 58 TO 66
WEDNESDAY...SUNNY... PATCHY MORNING FOG... HIGHS 74 TO 92
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR... LOWS 60 TO 68
THURSDAY...SUNNY... HIGHS 76 TO 94
FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR... LOWS IN THE 60S... HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 90S.
SATURDAY...CLEAR... PATCHY NIGHT AND MORNING FOG... LOWS IN THE 60S HIGHS 75 TO 90.
SUNDAY...CLEAR... AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING FOG... LOWS IN THE 60S HIGHS 72 TO 87.
MONDAY...CLOUDY DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING...OTHERWISE CLEAR LOWS 55 TO 65. HIGHS 70 TO 85.
Look at Death Valley though... :o :o
DEATH VALLEY NATIONAL PARK-
INCLUDING FURNACE CREEK...STOVEPIPE WELLS...SHOSHONE...TECOPA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV 330 PM PDT MON JUL 7 2003
TONIGHT...CLEAR... LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S... SOUTH WIND 5 TO 15 MPH
TUESDAY...SUNNY... HIGHS NEAR 118... SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH
TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEAR... LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S... SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY...SUNNY... SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH... HIGHS NEAR 122
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLEAR... SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH BECOMING LIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 80S.
THURSDAY...SUNNY... HIGHS NEAR 123
FRIDAY...SUNNY... LOWS IN THE MID 80S... HIGHS NEAR 124
SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY... LOWS IN THE MID 80S... HIGHS NEAR 123
SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY... LOWS IN THE MID 80S... HIGHS NEAR 121
MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY... LOWS IN THE MID 80S... HIGHS NEAR 120
I live about 3 or 4 miles from the beach. So on Tuesday and maybe Wednesday, I will see some fog according to this forecast; but then it will warm up in a hurry. I predict the following temps for my city, Huntington Beach, CA:
Temps Predicted for the Tuesday through Saturday Heat Wave:
Tuesday - 79
Wednesday - 82
Thursday - 85
Friday - 83
Saturday - 81
I will let you know how my predictions go.
EDIT: Added Death Valley part and enlarged small text.
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With all due respect...I mentioned earlier how hot it can get ..even at the Beach...do some climos dude..82F is very nice compared to 100+.
For instance,the record hi for Fullerton is 105 on this date in 1981..the same yr I mentioned...this was a Santa Ana event of major proportion.
The beaches breached 100+F during the same time period.I lived in Newport Beach then,and remember well the intense heat.
NW TUS
104F/Dp 31 /wind L/V/Clr.Smoke
For instance,the record hi for Fullerton is 105 on this date in 1981..the same yr I mentioned...this was a Santa Ana event of major proportion.
The beaches breached 100+F during the same time period.I lived in Newport Beach then,and remember well the intense heat.
NW TUS
104F/Dp 31 /wind L/V/Clr.Smoke
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Chorro de Arena (Sandblast)
122F is pretty darn toasty for Death Valley Josh, but we're Arizona, not
Death Valley and our altitude in Phoenix is somewhere around 1000-feet
higher than DV too. We expect ~117F on Thursday - CrockPot Weather.
Whatever is closed up with a lid outside, like inside a car, melts then bakes
to a crisp: CDs, lipstick (you guys probably don't care about that one),
camera film, all food - forget anything chocolate or with a low-mush temp...
haha. All windows in your car MUST have sunshades or the dashboards heat
up enough to crack down the middle. Remember the towel or oven mitts to
be able to touch the steering wheel mid-day.... :o


The best part though comes afterwards - - you know....
Wall of Orange Sand.....
Howling Winds....
Black Sky....
Towering Cumulus..
Forked Lightning all over the place...
Loud cracking Thunder....
....and on those special days - RAIN!!!! Yah, wet RAIN too!
R A I N R A I N R A I N R A I N R A I N R A I N R A I N R A I N R A I N :34:
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- Aslkahuna
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I'll Believe That
when I see it. CPC hasn't been doing too well with our precip as of late. They also have us above normal in the 90 day but with above normal temperatures-the two are not usually compatible and they totally blew the Winter and Spring outlooks. We'll have to see.
Steve
Steve
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- Aslkahuna
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Big Santa Ana Events
that bring such searing heat to the beaches are really few and far between so if one wasn't around for the last one, they may not remember it.
The Drought of the 1950's was actually worse than the Dust Bowl Drought in the Southern Plains and the SW into CA insofar as rainfall deficits were concerned. What exacerbated the Drought of the 1930's were the poor land management practices of the time.
Tucson notes that the driest monsoon of all time was in 1924 with 1.29in of rain there for the whole period of the monsoon. Although U/A data is not available, the ENSO data is so I might look at that to see what we had then.
The period of July 16-22 is the one I'm thinking most strongly about for onset (which would be a record late start if it happens after the 17th) though the latest (12Z) runs were not even optimisitc about that time frame either. Bottom line is that if it doesn't start this weekend, it will be at least a week before we get another chance.
Steve
The Drought of the 1950's was actually worse than the Dust Bowl Drought in the Southern Plains and the SW into CA insofar as rainfall deficits were concerned. What exacerbated the Drought of the 1930's were the poor land management practices of the time.
Tucson notes that the driest monsoon of all time was in 1924 with 1.29in of rain there for the whole period of the monsoon. Although U/A data is not available, the ENSO data is so I might look at that to see what we had then.
The period of July 16-22 is the one I'm thinking most strongly about for onset (which would be a record late start if it happens after the 17th) though the latest (12Z) runs were not even optimisitc about that time frame either. Bottom line is that if it doesn't start this weekend, it will be at least a week before we get another chance.
Steve
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