Tornado outbreak possible - March 2-4

[CrazyC83]

ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 041621
GAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-VAZ000-050015-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1021 AM CST TUE MAR 04 2008

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST US THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS
OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

EASTERN GEORGIA
NORTH CAROLINA
SOUTH CAROLINA
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA

SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST US.

A POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE
TRANSPORTING A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS NORTHWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS AND EASTERN GA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND RACE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE THREAT AREA. IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS
WILL POSE A RISK OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES OVER THE REGION.
ALSO...STORMS WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO A FAST-MOVING SQUALL LINE
AFTER DARK. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS
LINE SWEEPS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND OFFSHORE.

THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..HART.. 03/04/2008

$$

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0346
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1056 AM CST TUE MAR 04 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CNTRL/SE GA INTO PARTS OF EXTREME NRN FL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 95...

VALID 041656Z - 041900Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 95 CONTINUES.

A NEW WW WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH IT IS
UNCERTAIN IF THIS WILL BY 18Z.

A QUASI LINEAR CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EVOLVE ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...ON THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF A FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND NOW SPREADING TOWARD SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF
THE BASE OF THE VIGOROUS APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...WHICH IS PROGGED
TO GRADUALLY TAKE ON AN INCREASING NEGATIVE TILT AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF STATES THIS AFTERNOON.

THICK CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF STRONG STORMS WILL INHIBIT
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. BUT...UPPER
FORCING AND AN INFLUX OF RICHER MOISTURE ON MODERATELY STRONG
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...CHARACTERIZED BY MID/UPPER 60S SURFACE
DEW POINTS...MAY COMPENSATE. IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND SIZABLE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS...THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO
DAMAGING WINDS...WITH THE EVOLVING CLUSTER...AND PERHAPS MORE
DISCRETE CELLS FORMING JUST TO THE EAST. BEST CHANCE MAY BE CLOSER
TO 21Z ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO THE SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY...WHERE BEST HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS CURRENTLY
TAKING PLACE.

..KERR.. 03/04/2008


ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

30678136 30318182 30118292 30428454 30638508 30818531
31758490 32418425 33378314 33908251 32938127 32248102

[CrazyC83]

SEL6

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 96
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

A LARGE PART OF GEORGIA
PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
PARTS OF WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
MUCH OF EASTERN TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1205 PM UNTIL
700 PM EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH OF KNOXVILLE
TENNESSEE TO 55 MILES SOUTH OF MACON GEORGIA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 95...

DISCUSSION...POWERFUL TROUGH AND JET MAX WILL BE ROTATING NEWD
ACROSS SERN STATES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PROVIDING BOTH STRONG
VERTICAL MOTION AND SHEAR PROFILES TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. STRONG
COLD FRONT MID TN SWD WILL BE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL
INCLUDE SUPERCELLS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE A THREAT ALONG AND AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LINE OF STORMS
AS THEY MOVE EWD ACROSS THE WATCH.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.


...HALES


SEL6

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 96
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

A LARGE PART OF GEORGIA
PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
PARTS OF WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
MUCH OF EASTERN TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1205 PM UNTIL
700 PM EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH OF KNOXVILLE
TENNESSEE TO 55 MILES SOUTH OF MACON GEORGIA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 95...

DISCUSSION...POWERFUL TROUGH AND JET MAX WILL BE ROTATING NEWD
ACROSS SERN STATES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PROVIDING BOTH STRONG
VERTICAL MOTION AND SHEAR PROFILES TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. STRONG
COLD FRONT MID TN SWD WILL BE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL
INCLUDE SUPERCELLS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE A THREAT ALONG AND AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LINE OF STORMS
AS THEY MOVE EWD ACROSS THE WATCH.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.


...HALES


Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

WOUS64 KWNS 041700
WOU6

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 96
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

TORNADO WATCH 96 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

GAC009-011-013-015-021-023-035-045-047-053-055-057-059-063-067-
077-079-081-083-085-089-091-093-097-105-107-111-113-115-117-119-
121-123-125-129-133-135-137-139-141-143-145-147-149-151-153-157-
159-163-167-169-171-175-187-193-195-197-199-207-209-211-213-215-
217-219-221-223-225-227-231-233-235-237-241-247-249-255-257-259-
261-263-265-269-271-279-281-283-285-289-291-293-295-297-301-303-
307-309-311-313-315-317-319-050000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0096.080304T1705Z-080305T0000Z/

GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BALDWIN BANKS BARROW
BARTOW BIBB BLECKLEY
BUTTS CARROLL CATOOSA
CHATTAHOOCHEE CHATTOOGA CHEROKEE
CLARKE CLAYTON COBB
COWETA CRAWFORD CRISP
DADE DAWSON DEKALB
DODGE DOOLY DOUGLAS
ELBERT EMANUEL FANNIN
FAYETTE FLOYD FORSYTH
FRANKLIN FULTON GILMER
GLASCOCK GORDON GREENE
GWINNETT HABERSHAM HALL
HANCOCK HARALSON HARRIS
HART HEARD HENRY
HOUSTON JACKSON JASPER
JEFFERSON JOHNSON JONES
LAMAR LAURENS LUMPKIN
MACON MADISON MARION
MERIWETHER MONROE MONTGOMERY
MORGAN MURRAY MUSCOGEE
NEWTON OCONEE OGLETHORPE
PAULDING PEACH PICKENS
PIKE POLK PULASKI
PUTNAM RABUN ROCKDALE
SCHLEY SPALDING STEPHENS
STEWART SUMTER TALBOT
TALIAFERRO TAYLOR TELFAIR
TOOMBS TOWNS TREUTLEN
TROUP TWIGGS UNION
UPSON WALKER WALTON
WARREN WASHINGTON WEBSTER
WHEELER WHITE WHITFIELD
WILCOX WILKES WILKINSON


NCC021-039-043-075-087-089-099-113-115-173-175-050000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0096.080304T1705Z-080305T0000Z/

NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BUNCOMBE CHEROKEE CLAY
GRAHAM HAYWOOD HENDERSON
JACKSON MACON MADISON
SWAIN TRANSYLVANIA


SCC007-073-077-050000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0096.080304T1705Z-080305T0000Z/

SC
. SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANDERSON OCONEE PICKENS


TNC001-007-009-011-013-025-029-035-049-057-059-063-065-067-073-
089-093-105-107-121-123-129-133-137-139-143-145-151-155-173-
050000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0096.080304T1705Z-080305T0000Z/

TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANDERSON BLEDSOE BLOUNT
BRADLEY CAMPBELL CLAIBORNE
COCKE CUMBERLAND FENTRESS
GRAINGER GREENE HAMBLEN
HAMILTON HANCOCK HAWKINS
JEFFERSON KNOX LOUDON
MCMINN MEIGS MONROE
MORGAN OVERTON PICKETT
POLK RHEA ROANE
SCOTT SEVIER UNION


ATTN...WFO...FFC...MRX...OHX...GSP...





Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

SAW6
WW 96 TORNADO GA NC SC TN 041705Z - 050000Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
55N TYS/KNOXVILLE TN/ - 55S MCN/MACON GA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /26SSE LOZ - 37ENE ABY/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.

LAT...LON 36618265 31898237 31898493 36618534

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.


Watch 96 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.

[CrazyC83]

Cells quickly forming behind the squall line...

[Ed Mahmoud]

NCC149-041830-
/O.CON.KGSP.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-080304T1830Z/
POLK NC-
1251 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM EST FOR POLK
COUNTY...

AT 1251 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A POSSIBLE TORNADO. THIS POSSIBLE TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR
COLUMBUS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

ANY TORNADO TOUCHDOWN COULD OCCUR NEAR MILL SPRING BY 1 PM EST.

[CrazyC83]

NCC149-041830-
/O.CON.KGSP.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-080304T1830Z/
POLK NC-
1251 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM EST FOR POLK
COUNTY...

AT 1251 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A POSSIBLE TORNADO. THIS POSSIBLE TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR
COLUMBUS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

ANY TORNADO TOUCHDOWN COULD OCCUR NEAR MILL SPRING BY 1 PM EST.

That's on the squall line too, not the main activity later...

[Weatherfreak14]

Is the New cells behind the old squall line the big players this eve and tonight or is it ahead of the squall line.

[CrazyC83]

Current conditions in the threat area:

Alabama
Dothan - A few clouds, 73 (64)

Delaware
Dover - Partly cloudy, 70 (56)
Wilmington - Mostly cloudy, 67 (54)

Florida
Daytona Beach - Partly cloudy, 81 (63)
Gainesville - Mostly cloudy, 76 (63)
Jacksonville - Partly cloudy, 77 (64)
Lake City - Mostly cloudy, 77 (65)
Orlando - A few clouds, 81 (65)
Tallahassee - Light rainshower, 70 (66)
Tampa - Mostly cloudy, 75 (66)

Georgia
Albany - Light rain, 70 (65)
Athens - Light rainshower, 75 (64)
Atlanta - Partly cloudy, 69 (62)
Augusta - Rain, 68 (64)
Brunswick - Partly cloudy, 75 (66)
Columbus - A few clouds, 71 (62)
Macon - Thunderstorm, 66 (62)
Rome - Light rainshower, 59 (54)
Savannah - Partly cloudy, 73 (66)
Valdosta - Light rain, 70 (66)

Maryland
Annapolis - Mostly cloudy, 58 (50)
Baltimore - Mostly cloudy, 68 (55)
Salisbury - Partly cloudy, 70 (52)

New Jersey
Atlantic City - Mostly cloudy, 59 (48)

North Carolina
Asheville - Rain, 61 (57)
Cape Hatteras - Partly cloudy, 75 (54)
Charlotte - Light rainshower, 70 (59)
Edenton - Overcast, 71 (55)
Fayetteville - Light rainshower, 74 (61)
Greensboro - Mostly cloudy, 70 (56)
Greenville - Mostly cloudy, 75 (57)
Hickory - Light rain, 63 (61)
Jacksonville - Mostly cloudy, 72 (61)
Nags Head - A few clouds, 64 (54)
New Bern - Partly cloudy, 71 (57)
Raleigh - Mostly cloudy, 71 (61)
Wilmington - Mostly cloudy, 72 (61)

Pennsylvania
Philadelphia - Mostly cloudy, 65 (52)

South Carolina
Anderson - Light rain, 64 (61)
Beaufort - Mostly cloudy, 74 (65)
Charleston - Mostly cloudy, 76 (64)
Columbia - Mostly cloudy, 77 (59)
Florence - Partly cloudy, 74 (64)
Greenville - Overcast, 62 (60)
Myrtle Beach - Partly cloudy, 70 (61)
Orangeburg - Mostly cloudy, 77 (61)

Tennessee
Chattanooga - Light rainshower, 57 (52)
Crossville - Mostly cloudy, 62 (57)
Knoxville - Mostly cloudy, 67 (57)
Tri-Cities - Heavy rain, 57 (57)

Virginia
Accomack - Partly cloudy, 64 (55)
Charlottesville - Overcast, 62 (57)
Emporia - Mostly cloudy, 75 (59)
Lynchburg - Overcast, 66 (57)
Martinsville - Mostly cloudy, 70 (57)
Richmond - Mostly cloudy, 71 (57)
Roanoke - Overcast, 63 (57)
Virginia Beach - Mostly cloudy, 72 (52)
Washington Dulles - Overcast, 68 (56)
Washington National - Overcast, 71 (56)
Williamsburg - Partly cloudy, 75 (57)
Winchester - Overcast, 63 (54)
Wytheville - Rain, 57 (57)

[CrazyC83]

Is the New cells behind the old squall line the big players this eve and tonight or is it ahead of the squall line.

Behind the line.

[CrazyC83]

New watch, possibly PDS, coming:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0347
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 PM CST TUE MAR 04 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NC/SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 041903Z - 042100Z

SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY THE 04/21-05/00Z TIME
FRAME...AND A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

STRONGER 2 HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE NOW DEVELOPING TO THE LEE
OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAINS/SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. AND...THIS IS
WHERE MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY
WAVE/MESO LOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A WEAKENING PRE-FRONTAL BAND
OF CONVECTION SPREADS OFF TO THE EAST...AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SURFACE HEATING APPEARS LIKELY PRIOR TO THE APPROACH OF FRONTAL
SQUALL LINE WHICH IS IN THE PROCESS OF SLOWLY INTENSIFYING ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA.

THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ALREADY BECOME RATHER MOIST/POTENTIALLY
POSITIVELY BUOYANT...AND...WITH THE ONSET OF MID-LEVEL
COOLING...CONDITIONAL AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME. THE
APPROACH OF A 100+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK IS EXPECTED TO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY INTENSIFICATION OF A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET FROM
50-70 KT...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER/EXTREME LOW
-LEVEL SHEAR. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH
THE SQUALL LINE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STRONG TORNADOES IN
SUPERCELLS WITHIN AND AHEAD OF LINE. THIS COULD AFFECT THE
CHARLOTTE NC/COLUMBIA SC AREAS BY 05/00Z.

..KERR.. 03/04/2008


ATTN...WFO...RAH...CAE...GSP...

34018074 33778166 34068244 34508259 35058234 35298196
35708108 35618039 34918006

[CrazyC83]

SEL7

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 97
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
230 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
PARTS OF WESTERN VIRGINIA
MUCH OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 230 PM UNTIL
800 PM EST.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF LONDON KENTUCKY TO 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
DUBLIN VIRGINIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 96...

DISCUSSION...INTENSE UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING
ACROSS TN VALLEY. LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
COLD FRONT CENTRAL KY WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS
WATCH AREA. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24040.


...HALES


SEL7

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 97
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
230 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
PARTS OF WESTERN VIRGINIA
MUCH OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 230 PM UNTIL
800 PM EST.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF LONDON KENTUCKY TO 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
DUBLIN VIRGINIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 96...

DISCUSSION...INTENSE UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING
ACROSS TN VALLEY. LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
COLD FRONT CENTRAL KY WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS
WATCH AREA. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24040.


...HALES


Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

WOUS64 KWNS 041924
WOU7

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 97
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
230 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 97 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EST
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

KYC011-013-019-025-043-051-063-065-069-071-095-109-115-119-121-
125-127-129-131-133-153-159-165-173-175-189-193-195-197-205-235-
237-050100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0097.080304T1930Z-080305T0100Z/

KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BATH BELL BOYD
BREATHITT CARTER CLAY
ELLIOTT ESTILL FLEMING
FLOYD HARLAN JACKSON
JOHNSON KNOTT KNOX
LAUREL LAWRENCE LEE
LESLIE LETCHER MAGOFFIN
MARTIN MENIFEE MONTGOMERY
MORGAN OWSLEY PERRY
PIKE POWELL ROWAN
WHITLEY WOLFE


VAC021-027-035-051-071-077-105-155-167-169-173-185-191-195-197-
520-640-720-050100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0097.080304T1930Z-080305T0100Z/

VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BLAND BUCHANAN CARROLL
DICKENSON GILES GRAYSON
LEE PULASKI RUSSELL
SCOTT SMYTH TAZEWELL
WASHINGTON WISE WYTHE


VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

BRISTOL GALAX NORTON


WVC005-011-015-019-025-039-043-045-047-055-059-063-067-079-081-
089-099-109-050100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0097.080304T1930Z-080305T0100Z/

WV
. WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BOONE CABELL CLAY
FAYETTE GREENBRIER KANAWHA
LINCOLN LOGAN MCDOWELL
MERCER MINGO MONROE
NICHOLAS PUTNAM RALEIGH
SUMMERS WAYNE WYOMING


ATTN...WFO...JKL...RLX...RNK...MRX...





Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

SAW7
WW 97 SEVERE TSTM KY VA WV 041930Z - 050100Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
30NNW LOZ/LONDON KY/ - 25NNE PSK/DUBLIN VA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM N/S /28NNW LOZ - 24NNE PSK/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.

LAT...LON 38348429 38338051 36598051 36618429

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.


Watch 97 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0349
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0130 PM CST TUE MAR 04 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...MUCH OF NRN/CNTRL GA INTO FAR WRN NC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 96...

VALID 041930Z - 042100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 96 CONTINUES.

DUE TO WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER BASED INSTABILITY...CONVECTIVE
INTENSIFICATION HAS BEEN GRADUAL. BUT...FRONTAL SQUALL LINE
EVOLUTION IS NOW WELL UNDERWAY...WITH STEADY FURTHER STRENGTHENING
LIKELY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD
OF INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH IN THE PEAK AFTERNOON
HEATING.

RUC GUIDANCE ALREADY SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF A 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET
CORE ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WHICH WILL DEVELOP TO THE LEE OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AND...VWP DATA FROM AREA
RADARS INDICATE 50+ KT SOUTHERLY FLOW BELOW 1000 FEET AGL. EXTREME
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH THE APPROACH
OF A 100 KT 500 MB JET STREAK WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING RISK FOR
TORNADOES. MEANWHILE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH MID-LEVEL
DRYING TO ENHANCE EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED VERY STRONG AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AS WELL...ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH
21-22Z.

..KERR.. 03/04/2008


ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

32668489 33218453 33898432 34638429 35058424 35508418
35898416 36148390 36068309 34908257 34188245 33078286
32338461

[Brent]

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1235 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2008

...NWS STORM SURVEY TEAMS FIND TWO EF1 TORNADOES...

...GREENE COUNTY...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS SURVEYING STORM DAMAGE IN
THE TOWN OF EUTAW FOUND A TORNADO DAMAGE PATH. THE DAMAGE IS RATED
AN EF1 ON THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE WITH MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS
ESTIMATED AT 105 MPH...WITH A MAXIMUM WIDTH OF 300 YARDS. THE TORNADO
TOUCHED DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 11 AND COUNTY ROAD 135.
THE TORNADO CROSSED INTERSTATE 20 NEAR MILE MARKER 43 AND LIFTED
BEFORE REACHING COUNTY ROAD 167. THE PATH LENGTH WAS 5.6 MILES.
TWENTY FIVE HOMES RECEIVED DAMAGE...ONE HOME WAS DESTROYED AND FOUR
HOMES RECEIVED MAJOR DAMAGE. SEVERAL HUNDRED TREES WERE SNAPPED OR
DOWNED. NO INJURIES OR FATALITIES WERE REPORTED.


...TUSCALOOSA COUNTY...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS SURVEYING STORM DAMAGE IN
THE NORTHERN TUSCALOOSA COUNTY FOUND A TORNADO DAMAGE PATH. THE
DAMAGE IS RATED AN EF1 ON THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE WITH MAXIMUM WIND
SPEEDS ESTIMATED AT 90 MPH...WITH A MAXIMUM WIDTH OF 200 YARDS. THE
TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN ABOUT 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE TOWN OF SAMANTHA
NEAR COUNTY ROAD 38...AND WAS ON THE GROUND ABOUT THREE-QUARTERS OF
MILE. SIX HOMES WERE DAMAGED AND ONE HOME HEAVILY DAMAGED. SEVERAL
HUNDRED TREES WERE SNAPPED OR DOWNED. NO INJURIES OR FATALITIES WERE
REPORTED.

[Bunkertor]

SPC AC 041956

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CST TUE MAR 04 2008

VALID 042000Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN GA...SC...NC
AND SRN VA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN
SEABOARD...SRN APPALACHIANS AND FLORIDA...

...CAROLINAS/ERN GA/SRN VA...
A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LOW AND NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE NEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS TONIGHT. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE
ERN SEABOARD ALONG WITH AN EJECTING 70 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL
CREATE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE ERN
SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SE
KY EXTENDING SWD ACROSS ERN TN INTO NRN GA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
ORGANIZED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH VERY STRONG
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WITH THE PASSING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. A LARGE
LINEAR MCS SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD ACROSS VA...THE CAROLINAS AND
GA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CONCERNING THE SEVERE THREAT...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL RAPIDLY
STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE 70 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS
NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN CHARLESTON SC AND
FAYETTEVILLE NC THIS AFTERNOON INCREASE 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES FROM
AROUND 40 KT AT 19Z TO ABOUT 55 KT BY 23Z SUGGESTING THE SUPERCELL
THREAT WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS. THE
THREAT FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR JUST EAST OF THE SQUALL-LINE. SUPERCELLS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WITH SOME STRONG FROM THE ERN
RIDGES OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS EWD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO THE
COASTAL PLAINS OF NC AND SC. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE
THROUGH 00Z AS A 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND MOVES
NEWD ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. FURTHER WEST...VERY STRONG
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD PROMOTE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FROM ERN GA NWD ACROSS THE WRN CAROLINAS AS A
SQUALL-LINE ORGANIZES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM ATHENS GA NWD TO NEAR
CHARLOTTE NC BY LATE AFTERNOON SHOW 55 TO 65 KT OF FLOW AT 1 KM. THE
VERY STRONG FLOW JUST OFF THE SFC SHOULD ENHANCE THE WIND DAMAGE
THREAT WITH THE SQUALL-LINE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD WIND
DAMAGE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA AS THE SQUALL-LINE
ADVANCES EWD AND REACHES THE ERN CAROLINAS BY LATE EVENING. A FEW
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ROTATING CELL ELEMENTS IN THE
SQUALL-LINE.

...GA/FL...
FURTHER SOUTH...ACROSS SERN GA AND FL...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL NOT
BE QUITE AS STRONG AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PULLS NNEWD AWAY FROM
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. FOR THIS REASON...THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS AREAS NWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
HOWEVER...THE TALLAHASSEE WSR-88D VWP CURRENTLY SHOWS ABOUT 40 KT OF
0-6 KM SHEAR AND THIS SHOULD INCREASE TO ABOUT 55 KT OVER THE NEXT
1-3 HOURS AS THE MID-LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONG
FLOW AT LOW-LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH A 60 KT 850 MB JET SHOULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH
THE STRONGER CELL ELEMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE.

[CrazyC83]

Two distinct threats: first tornadoes, then straight-line winds...

[brunota2003]

I realize that this is "just" a Special Weather Statement...but I think it may allude to something.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
329 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

NCZ042-042100-
JOHNSTON-
329 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

...A HEAVY SHOWER WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS JOHNSTON COUNTY
THROUGH 400 PM EST...

AT 329 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A HEAVY SHOWER WITH GUSTY
WINDS OVER BENSON...OR ABOUT 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
SMITHFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THE HEAVY SHOWER WILL BE NEAR FOUR OAKS AROUND 340 PM
EST...SMITHFIELD AROUND 345 PM EST...FLOWERS AROUND 400 PM EST.

GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THIS SHOWER. ROTATION HAS ALSO BEEN DETECTED WITH THIS SHOWER. THESE
WINDS ARE CAPABLE OF BRINGING DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS. LIGHT OBJECTS
SUCH AS TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND AWNINGS
COULD BE TOSSED AROUND.

$$

VINCENT

If this mere "heavy shower" is capable of producing winds of 40 to 50 mph AND have rotation associated with it, I'm afraid to know what the thunderstorms will be producing.

[Ed Mahmoud]

A good hour or more of sunshine between the leading area of storms, and the squall line.

Visible loop

[brunota2003]

Well...just like that, that "heavy shower" becomes this:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
339 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
JOHNSTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 415 PM EST

* AT 337 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER FOUR OAKS...OR ABOUT 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
SMITHFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH
ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
SMITHFIELD AROUND 345 PM...
SELMA AROUND 350 PM...
FLOWERS AROUND 400 PM...
EMIT AROUND 405 PM...

[Bunkertor]

TORNADO WARNING
VAC067-089-690-042130-
/O.NEW.KRNK.TO.W.0001.080304T2056Z-080304T2130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
356 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CITY OF MARTINSVILLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA
SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA
HENRY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA

* UNTIL 430 PM EST.

* AT 353 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR HORSE
PASTURE...OR NEAR SPENCER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HORSE PASTURE...
MARTINSVILLE CITY...
FIGSBORO...
SNOW CREEK...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

[CrazyC83]

That hole is where anything significant will develop.