Tornado outbreak possible - March 2-4

[Crostorm]

SEL4

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 94
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
125 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN AND EASTERN ALABAMA
WESTERN GEORGIA
SOUTHERN TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING FROM 125 AM UNTIL 900 AM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
CHATTANOOGA TENNESSEE TO 30 MILES SOUTH OF MONTGOMERY ALABAMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 93...

DISCUSSION...BROKEN SQLN WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE
STEADILY EWD ...WHILE INDIVIDUAL STORMS MOVE RAPIDLY NNE ALONG IT.
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD ON ERN
SIDE OF EJECTING OK/AR TROUGH...WILL CREATE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND NARROW SWATHS OF DAMAGING WIND THROUGH
LATER THIS MORNING.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21045.


...CORFIDI

[Crostorm]

SEL5

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 95
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
320 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN ALABAMA
WESTERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING FROM 320 AM UNTIL NOON CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 110 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
DOTHAN ALABAMA TO 55 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 93. WATCH NUMBER 93 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 320
AM CST. CONTINUE...WW 94...

DISCUSSION...BROKEN SQLN ALONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING
AR UPR LOW/TROUGH EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STEADILY EWD...WHILE EMBEDDED
STORMS MOVE RAPIDLY NNE WITHIN IT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN HAS
INCREASED APPRECIABLY IN THE LAST FEW HOURS ALONG THE ERN GULF CST.
SFC OBSERVATIONS/VWP DATA SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SPREAD N INTO SE AL AND SW GA AHEAD OF SQLN LATER THIS MORNING...TO
A DEGREE SUPPORTIVE OF SUSTAINED STORMS. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM IN
CONFLUENCE LINE AHEAD OF SQLN...OVER CNTRL PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE
INTO SE AL. STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD AND SLIGHTLY BACKED NEAR-SFC
FLOW SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO
NARROW SWATHS OF DMGG WIND/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21045.

[brunota2003]

Very strong wording by MHX (strongest that I've seen, and have been reading the discussions for a couple years now).

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A WARM START TO THE DAY COMBINED WITH A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS...STRONG WAA...AND INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL ALL CREATE A
WARM DAY ACROSS THE EAST. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO BE AT LEAST 5 DEG
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY`S COMFORTABLE TEMPS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
COASTAL LOCATIONS WHERE BREEZY S WINDS WILL PUSH THE COOLER MARINE
AIR INLAND. TO OUR W...WILL SEE CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A
STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
GENERATING OVERCAST CONDITIONS HERE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
IN THE MID LVLS...SO EXP A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION. THE CAP THAT WAS SUGGESTED STRONGLY BY MODELS
YESTERDAY IS MISSING FROM TODAYS FCST SOUNDINGS...SO DO NOT SEE
THAT AS INHIBITING EARLIER PRE-SQUALL LINE CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...IF GIVEN THE LENGTH OF TIME IT WILL TAKE FOR THE S FLOW
TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR OVER THE REGION TO SUPPORT SHOWERS IT WILL
LIKELY ONLY BE A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE
ANYWAYS. THEREFORE...DON`T SEE ENOUGH EARLIER CONVECTION TO HELP
STABILIZE CONDITIONS AHEAD OF TONIGHT`S SQUALL LINE. THERE COULD
BE SOME COOLER/MORE STABLE AIR OVER THE FAR S REGIONS WHERE THE
MARINE AIR FILTERS IN...BUT GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING WITH TNT`S
FRONT DON`T THINK THIS COOLER AIR WILL BE ENOUGH TO RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SVR TSRA. SPC`S DAY ONE OUTLOOK SHOWS A SWATH OF
"SLIGHT RISK" OVER THE REGION FOR TONIGHT. CONSENSUS SUGGEST A
SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND THEN MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH
THE EAST SOME TIME LATE TONIGHT...LIKELY A LITTLE FASTER THAN
MODELS SUGGEST. EXPECT LITTLE ADDITIONAL SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY OUTSIDE OF
THIS MAIN LINE...WITH RAINFALL...POSSIBLY HEAVY...ONLY MEASURING
AROUND A HALF AN INCH ON THE AVERAGE. THE NOTABLE THREATS TNT WILL
BE STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THE LL JETS ARE EXP TO BECOME
ENHANCED OVER THE REGION LATE TNT AS THE LOW BECOMES MORE NEG
TILTED AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO OUR NW. WITH THE WIND FLOW
BECOMING MORE NORMAL TO THE POTENTIAL STORM MOTION EXP A STRAIGHT
LINE/BOW TYPE EVENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR 60-70KT WINDS. ANOTHER
THREAT THAT IS BECOMING MORE WORRISOME IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADIC STORMS. THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS SLOW TO BECOME
UNIDIRECTIONAL...WHICH WILL LEAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ROTATION AT
THE ONSET...AND OF COURSE LATER IN THE HOT SPOT CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIONS OF A POTENTIAL BOW. HAIL SEEMS LIKE THE LESSER THREAT
COMPARED TO WIND AND TORNADOS...BUT WITH A STRONG UPDRAFT SYSTEM
CAN NEVER RULE IT OUT. THERE IS A HIGH LIKELYHOOD THAT A WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED LATER TONIGHT AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES.

So, the no cap may not be the best thing in the world...SPC has a 15% hail/10% hatched tornado/30% Wind. Widespread severe wx today is expected.

[Bunkertor]

[CrazyC83]

Going up to Moderate Risk:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0342
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0533 AM CST TUE MAR 04 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SC/NC INTO SOUTHEAST VA

CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 041133Z - 041300Z

A CATEGORICAL MODERATE RISK WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE FORTHCOMING DAY
1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AT 13Z. A PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE
ISSUED SHORTLY.

AHEAD OF A BROAD CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS EASTERN TN AND EASTERN
AL/FAR WESTERN GA EARLY THIS MORNING...INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE /INTO THE LOWER 60S/ AND DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/COASTAL AREAS OF NC/SC AND SOUTHEAST VA THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY ACROSS AR EARLY THIS
MORNING...INCREASINGLY STRONG FLOW FIELDS WITH ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS WILL SEEMINGLY SUPPORT A RISK FOR A FEW STRONG
TORNADOES/POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SC/NC AND SOUTHEAST VA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. FURTHER
DETAILS WILL BE AVAILABLE IN THE FORTHCOMING 13Z DAY 1 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 03/04/2008


ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...

37447707 36557591 35277594 33987828 32468064 33778088
35527896

[Weatherfreak14]

ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL WOUS40 KWNS 041208 NCZ000-SCZ000-VAZ000-042015- PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0608 AM CST TUE MAR 04 2008 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL/EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. A POTENT UPPER SYSTEM OVER ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...ONGOING STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF GEORGIA/FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS REGION. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT...AND AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY...IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE COMBINATION OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY STRONG WINDS FIELDS WILL SUPPORT WELL-ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF BOTH ROTATING SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AND AN EVENTUAL SQUALL LINE...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME LARGE HAIL. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY. ..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 03/04/2008 $$

[CrazyC83]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 AM CST TUE MAR 04 2008

VALID 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL/ERN SC NEWD INTO SE
VA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
FROM CNTRL FL INTO SE PA/SRN NJ...

...SYNOPSIS...
POTENT AR CLOSED LOW WILL EJECT ENE INTO PA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
AS UPSTREAM SPEED MAX NOW OVER ORE CONTINUES SE TO THE FOUR CORNERS.
AR SYSTEM WILL ASSUME AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT...ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS IT BEGINS TO BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN
STRONG NRN STREAM FLOW ACROSS SRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC.

AT LWR LEVELS...SFC LOW NOW NEAR BNA SHOULD CONTINUE NE INTO WV THIS
EVENING...AND DEEPEN AS IT CONTINUES N/NE TO NEAR SYR EARLY
WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING S ACROSS WRN AL
SHOULD ACCELERATE E ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL OVERTAKE EXISTING PREFRONTAL SQLN NOW IN WRN GA/ERN
AL...AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA CST EARLY WEDNESDAY.

...CNTRL/NRN FL THROUGH GA/THE CAROLINAS TO THE MID ATLANTIC CST...
AL/GA PREFRONTAL SQLN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STEADILY E ACROSS GA
AND NW FL THROUGH THIS AFTN AS AR UPR SYSTEM BEGINS TO EJECT NEWD.
MERIDIONAL NATURE OF UPR PATTERN WILL KEEP COLDEST AIR ALOFT W OF
SQLN THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT. BUT THERMODYNAMIC DATA IN
MORNING RAOBS AHEAD OF THE LINE...AND EXPECTED DEGREE OF SFC
HEATING...SUGGEST THAT EMBEDDED STORMS WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY BY
EARLY/MID AFTN OVER ERN GA AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE SC/NC PIEDMONT.
A FEW STORMS COULD ALSO FORM LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY TONIGHT IN
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT...MOIST LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ERN SC/NC
CSTL PLN.

WIND PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASING FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED
SUPERCELLS OVER THE S ATLANTIC PIEDMONT AND CSTL PLN TODAY...AND
PROFILES LIKELY WILL BECOME EVEN MORE FAVORABLE NEWD INTO DELMARVA
REGION TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS UPR SYSTEM ACCELERATES NEWD AND
ASSUMES A NEGATIVE TILT. STRENGTH OF LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD /60+ KT
SSW FLOW AT 850 MB/ AND INCREASING MOISTURE INFLOW OFF THE WRN
ATLANTIC /SFC DEWPOINTS AOA 60 F NW TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY EARLY
TONIGHT/ SUGGEST A RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN EXPECTED PRESENCE OF SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS/BROKEN SEGMENTS IN
SQLN.

THE SVR THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z WEDNESDAY AS UPR
DIVERGENCE/ASCENT AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT OVERSPREAD REMAINING
PRE-SQLN WARM SECTOR IN THE DELMARVA REGION...DESPITE LIMITED
INSTABILITY.

FARTHER S...STRONGER PORTION OF SQLN NOW OVER THE NERN GULF SW OF
PAM/AQQ WILL AFFECT NW FL AND THE W CNTRL PART OF THE STATE THIS
AFTN. STRONGLY DIFFLUENT UPR FLOW AND MODERATE TO STRONG VEERING
PROFILES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS THAT COULD AFFECT THE
CTY/TPA AREAS WITH WIND/HAIL AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES LATER TODAY.

...ERN KY...
DEPENDING UPON DEGREE OF DIURNAL HEATING...A SMALL AREA OF SFC-BASED
INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTN INVOF SFC LOW OVER ERN KY. GIVEN
DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED
WITH EJECTING UPR TROUGH...ANY STORMS THAT FORM COULD PRODUCE HAIL
AND/OR LOCALLY DMGG WIND. ANY SUCH THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED IN
SPACE/TIME.

..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 03/04/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1322Z (8:22AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[Bunkertor]

Does anyone know...What is the reason yesterdays outlook lastly didn´t match with the svr weather process ?

[CrazyC83]

Does anyone know...What is the reason yesterdays outlook lastly didn´t match with the svr weather process ?

I think it had to do with the air mass - it was more stable than expected, preventing widespread supercells from developing ahead of the front.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Does anyone know...What is the reason yesterdays outlook lastly didn´t match with the svr weather process ?

I think the surface features got too far ahead of the upper low, with the upper low back around DFW when the squall line was pushing into Alabama.

WV loop suggests upper low picking up a little speed, and check out what is heading for Florida...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Does anyone know...What is the reason yesterdays outlook lastly didn´t match with the svr weather process ?

I think it had to do with the air mass - it was more stable than expected, preventing widespread supercells from developing ahead of the front.

I think the cap would have broken more if the upper low, its cooler air, and its upward motion region to its East where the flow around it was divergent, would have been closer to the warm sector.

[CrazyC83]

Does anyone know...What is the reason yesterdays outlook lastly didn´t match with the svr weather process ?

I think the surface features got too far ahead of the upper low, with the upper low back around DFW when the squall line was pushing into Alabama.

WV loop suggests upper low picking up a little speed, and check out what is heading for Florida...

That is extremely unstable air, correct?

[HURAKAN]

[Bunkertor]

Does anyone know...What is the reason yesterdays outlook lastly didn´t match with the svr weather process ?

I think it had to do with the air mass - it was more stable than expected, preventing widespread supercells from developing ahead of the front.

As to a sounding, Convection was prevented by massive descent, a stud. met. told.

[CrazyC83]

What is that yellow/orange over South Carolina, early development?

[HURAKAN]

[CrazyC83]

Current conditions in the threat area:

Delaware
Dover - A few clouds, 64 (53)
Wilmington - Mostly cloudy, 62 (51)

Florida
Daytona Beach - Partly cloudy, 77 (65)
Gainesville - Mostly cloudy, 74 (63)
Jacksonville - Mostly cloudy, 73 (64)
Lake City - Mostly cloudy, 72 (63)
Orlando - Mostly cloudy, 75 (67)
Tallahassee - Rain, 68 (65)
Tampa - Mostly cloudy, 74 (65)

Georgia
Albany - Light rain, 68 (65)
Atlanta - Rain, 62 (60)
Augusta - Mostly cloudy, 70 (62)
Brunswick - Partly cloudy, 73 (66)
Columbus - Thunderstorm, 64 (63)
Macon - Rain, 65 (61)
Rome - Light rain, 61 (57)
Savannah - Mostly cloudy, 71 (65)
Valdosta - Mostly cloudy, 71 (63)

Maryland
Annapolis - Mostly cloudy, 57 (49)
Baltimore - Mostly cloudy, 64 (52)
Salisbury - Partly cloudy, 68 (51)

New Jersey
Atlantic City - Mostly cloudy, 58 (49)

North Carolina
Asheville - Heavy rain, 59 (57)
Cape Hatteras - A few clouds, 64 (53)
Charlotte - Mostly cloudy, 66 (59)
Edenton - Mostly cloudy, 66 (54)
Fayetteville - Mostly cloudy, 71 (60)
Greensboro - Mostly cloudy, 65 (57)
Greenville - Partly cloudy, 72 (57)
Hickory - Overcast, 64 (59)
Jacksonville - Partly cloudy, 72 (60)
Nags Head - Partly cloudy, 63 (54)
New Bern - Partly cloudy, 71 (57)
Raleigh - Mostly cloudy, 68 (58)
Wilmington - Partly cloudy, 72 (60)

Pennsylvania
Philadelphia - Mostly cloudy, 60 (50)

South Carolina
Anderson - Light rain, 64 (61)
Beaufort - Mostly cloudy, 73 (65)
Charleston - Mostly cloudy, 70 (65)
Columbia - Mostly cloudy, 73 (61)
Florence - Mostly cloudy, 70 (61)
Greenville - Overcast, 62 (60)
Myrtle Beach - Partly cloudy, 71 (63)
Orangeburg - Mostly cloudy, 71 (63)

Virginia
Accomack - Partly cloudy, 63 (54)
Charlottesville - Overcast, 57 (54)
Emporia - Mostly cloudy, 66 (57)
Lynchburg - Overcast, 59 (57)
Martinsville - Mostly cloudy, 64 (59)
Richmond - Mostly cloudy, 64 (54)
Roanoke - Overcast, 62 (56)
Virginia Beach - Mostly cloudy, 70 (48)
Washington Dulles - Mostly cloudy, 63 (54)
Washington National - Mostly cloudy, 65 (53)
Williamsburg - A few clouds, 66 (53)
Winchester - Overcast, 61 (52)

[CrazyC83]

Threat increasing inland too - SLGT to be expanded at 1630Z (probably 5% tornado):

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0344
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0938 AM CST TUE MAR 04 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF MIDDLE/ERN TN AND S CNTRL THRU ERN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 041538Z - 041745Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WW. THE 1630Z OUTLOOK UPDATE WILL INCLUDE THIS
AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.

A SUB 1000 MB SURFACE CYCLONE CENTER IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY
DEEPENING AS IT MIGRATES FROM NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT
SURGES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE...A FRONTAL ZONE
EXTENDING EAST NORTHEAST OF THE LOW WILL LIKELY REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY.

ALTHOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
SURFACE CYCLONE IS STILL A BIT UNCLEAR...BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER
SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST WEAK HEATING OF A RELATIVELY MOIST AND
POTENTIALLY POSITIVELY BUOYANT BOUNDARY LAYER...EAST OF NASHVILLE
THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY FAVORABLE
FOR A SEVERE THREAT...AND MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO 500 J/KG IN THE
PRESENCE OF STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

THE EVOLUTION OF A NARROW SQUALL LINE APPEARS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH
MORE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS....AS THE EXIT REGION OF A 100+ KT 500 MB
JET STREAK NOSES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME.
AND...LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH...COUPLED WITH
SIGNIFICANT AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY NEAR THE LOW/MID-LEVEL
CYCLONE WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF THE RISK FOR TORNADOES...IN ADDITION
TO THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.

..KERR.. 03/04/2008


ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...

37038631 37638567 38158430 38408323 37888256 36908329
36318423 35868465 35428524 35378589 35928617

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0345
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1017 AM CST TUE MAR 04 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN AL...EXTREME ERN TN...NRN GA INTO
PARTS OF THE WRN CAROLINAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 041617Z - 041815Z

TIMING ON THE ONSET OF THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT NEAR OR TO THE LEE OF
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. IT MAY BE
FARTHER EAST...MUCH LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT TRENDS ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL
ACROSS AREA BY 18-21Z.

AS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY LIFT OUT OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND TAKE ON AN INCREASING NEGATIVE
TILT...FORCING FOR A FRONTAL OR PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CLEARING IN A NARROW PRE-FRONTAL
CORRIDOR...IN THE WAKE OF PRECEDING CONVECTIVE BAND... IS ALLOWING
FOR AT LEAST WEAK HEATING OF A MOIST AND POTENTIALLY POSITIVELY
BUOYANT BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...TIME FOR SIGNIFICANT
DESTABILIZATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN...AS AN EASTWARD ACCELERATION OF
THE COLD FRONT MAY OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF THE FRONT
OVERTAKES THE RAIN COOLED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS EASTERN
TENNESSEE/WESTERN GEORGIA TOO SOON...THE SEVERE THREAT MAY BE
MITIGATED. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE PRE-FRONTAL
DEEP LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR AN
INCREASING SEVERE THREAT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING THE RISK
FOR TORNADOES...AS WELL AS DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL.

..KERR.. 03/04/2008


ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN...

34768591 35378517 36238399 36368299 36308221 34628245
32838447 32168565 32948613 33678605

[CrazyC83]

MDT expanded greatly, increased wind threat as well:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1009 AM CST TUE MAR 04 2008

VALID 041630Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN GA...SOUTH CAROLINA...NORTH CAROLINA...AND
SOUTHEAST VA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...

A VIGOROUS AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY
WILL TRACK RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND AFFECT THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST
STATES TODAY...AND OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS/MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT. DESPITE ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY...VERY STRONG WIND
FIELDS AND LARGE SCALE FORCING SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE STORMS OVER A RELATIVELY LARGE AREA TODAY FROM EASTERN GA TO
THE CAROLINA COAST.

A LARGE SHIELD OF PRE-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST
VA INTO MUCH OF GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY IS BENEATH
LOW LEVEL JET AND IN REGION OF VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION. WHILE
THIS ACTIVITY IS LIMITING AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION...MODELS SUGGEST
SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE CELLULAR AND TO
INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF WESTERN NC INTO EASTERN GA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR A
RISK OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE
EASTWARD AFTER DARK TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST.

THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL KY SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL AL. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CLEARING
AHEAD OF FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A ZONE OF AT LEAST
MARGINAL INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. JUXTAPOSITION OF 100+ KNOT MID
LEVEL JET MAX AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY RESULT IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF INTENSE/SUPERCELLULAR STORMS ALONG THE FRONT FROM
EASTERN TN INTO EASTERN GA...BECOMING MERGED WITH PRE-FRONTAL
ACTIVITY BY EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE PRESENT
WITH THESE STORMS ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. SIGNIFICANT
TORNADO/WIND THREAT MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT AS STORMS
ORGANIZE INTO A FAST-MOVING SQUALL LINE AND RACE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS.

..HART/SCHNEIDER.. 03/04/2008

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