Carib Blob SE of ULL?

chadtm80 · #1 Postby **chadtm80** » Fri Jul 04, 2003 8:14 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Guest · #2 Postby **Guest** » Fri Jul 04, 2003 8:27 am

I think the shear is going to shred it apart. But what do I know - lets watch it and see what happens.

HAPPY 4th of JULY EVERYONE!!!

Patricia

Colin · #3 Postby **Colin** » Fri Jul 04, 2003 10:16 am

I agree with ticka here... we'll see...

ColdFront77 · #4 Postby **ColdFront77** » Fri Jul 04, 2003 12:14 pm

For whatever its worth... The wind shear is relatively low over southern Florida, the Florida Straits, western Cuba to south of Cuba... where this convection is located and the shear is decreasing over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

LEWP · #5 Postby **LEWP** » Fri Jul 04, 2003 12:50 pm

It's CAUSED by the ULL.

Or, in a sense, CAUSED by shear.

On the SE end of an ULL you get divergence which causes convection.

The same upper-level winds that are causing 30+ knots of upper level shear over it are the SAME divergent winds that are causing the convection. It's not some thing that would otherwise develop if it wasn't for having a shearing upper low to the west of it; it wouldn't EXIST without the ULL.

It's about the worst conceivable place for tropical development to take place.

ColdFront77 · #6 Postby **ColdFront77** » Fri Jul 04, 2003 1:04 pm

Makes sense to me, LEWP.

southerngale · #7 Postby **southerngale** » Fri Jul 04, 2003 1:07 pm

LEWP wrote:
It's about the worst conceivable place for tropical development to take place.

Why?

ColdFront77 · #8 Postby **ColdFront77** » Fri Jul 04, 2003 1:10 pm

I agree, Kelly, this deserves in explanation. Climatologically the area where this feature is located is favorable for development... but that is climatologically speaking.

#9 Postby **Steve** » Fri Jul 04, 2003 3:27 pm

It looks like a tropical wave interacting with the ULL in the area moving west. The wave axis should add to rainfall along the Gulf coast and also west into the East Pac in 3-4 days - not that it matters because we got another 2-3" today. It doesn't get sunny anymore, but hey, it's July 4th and I'm going to have fun anyway.

Steve

ColdFront77 · #10 Postby **ColdFront77** » Fri Jul 04, 2003 3:57 pm

It looks like a tropical wave interacting with the ULL in the area moving west. The wave axis should add to rainfall along the Gulf coast and also west into the East Pac in 3-4 days - not that it matters because we got another 2-3" today. It doesn't get sunny anymore, but hey, it's July 4th and I'm going to have fun anyway.

True, Steve. I remember this was mentioned for discussion yesterday and that is obviously continuing into today.

Derek Ortt · #11 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Jul 04, 2003 4:07 pm

This system is extremely sheared. There is nothing to worry about right now in the Carib

ColdFront77 · #12 Postby **ColdFront77** » Fri Jul 04, 2003 4:15 pm

Sure, Derek... this system is extremely sheared. I was just indicated that there are areas near it that the shear is lower.

It never entered my mind that there was anything to "worry about" in the Caribbean at this time.

Carib Blob SE of ULL?

Carib Blob SE of ULL?

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