Is winter over in Florida?

[Squarethecircle]

Florida has winter?

Since when?

[jinftl]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
526 PM EST SUN FEB 17 2008

.UPDATE...RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPS POSSIBLE AT PBI/FLL/MIA.
ACTUALLY...MY FCST MINS WOULD BREAK THE RECORDS...BUT THIS WILL
ALL DEPEND ON IF SHOWERS HIT THE SITES TOO BECAUSE THAT WOULD
BRING THE TEMPS DOWN MORE THAN IS FCST.

HERE ARE THE RECORD WARM MIN TEMPS FOR FEB 18TH:

PBI...73 - 1961
FLL...72 - 2000
MIA...73 - 1995

FOR MONDAY.. VERY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FL AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MAX TEMPS OF 84-87 EXPECTED. THESE HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE JUST SHY OF PREVIOUS MAX TEMPS RECORDS FOR THE DATE.

[boca]

Common sense says winter is not over since it never started. We had 2 days of cooler temps back on Jan 2nd and 3rd, thats it, how sad. Bring on rainy season so I don't have to be so bored.

[jinftl]

true....maybe it is more the 'potential' for an arctic front to sweep through, dropping temps to the 30's at night with highs only in the 50's...it has happened, but once we get into March, that is even more unlikely than it is say in Dec-Jan-Feb.

in all probability, i'd be surprised if we saw too many more nights even in the 50's the way this season has been (of course anything is possible...and i may eat these words!!!)

Common sense says winter is not over since it never started. We had 2 days of cooler temps back on Jan 2nd and 3rd, thats it, how sad. Bring on rainy season so I don't have to be so bored.

[Sanibel]

Warm here today and humid in front of the approaching front. Trying not to turn on air conditioner to save power.

[Patrick99]

I'm getting ready to say winter cancel. Once you get past early to mid February in South FL, that window starts to close quickly........and the fronts are becoming increasingly more pathetic, more like dewpoint/drying fronts than any kind of cool shot.

That sun is getting really strong, and I dipped my toe in the ocean this weekend, that water is warm. That won't exactly help cool shots sustain themselves either.

Boca is right, the winter never truly started. Of course, South FL doesn't have winter anyway, only dry/wet season.

[feederband]

My grass never turned brown this winter..Still just as green as it was in the summer..

[boca]

The title of the thread should be the all to familar Winer Cancel thread.

[boca]

I new as soon as I made a statement about how we haven't really had any cooler air down here in Southern Florida the Local Miami NWS says this:

IN THE FAR EXTENDED FCST...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA A WEEK FROM TODAY. CURRENT MODEL RUNS SHOW
THICKNESSES TAKING QUITE A DIVE...BUT OF COURSE THIS ALL COULD
DRASTICALLY CHANGE AS THINGS OFTEN DO THIS FAR OUT. BUT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO WATCH THE MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...BECAUSE RIGHT NOW THEY ARE POINTING TO A QUICK "COLD" SNAP
TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH.

[jinftl]

never fails, right? but...let's see if the forecast holds going forward. Plus the fact that they use the word 'quick' and place 'cold' in " " puts what could possibly happen in perspective....north winds for less than 24 hours which then switch onshore to a NE flow in Day 2 and back to E-SE windflow by Day 3...

not saying it can't get chilly in late feb/early march here...but it never lasts long. Not with the strong sun angle and longer days.

I new as soon as I made a statement about how we haven't really had any cooler air down here in Southern Florida the Local Miami NWS says this:

IN THE FAR EXTENDED FCST...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA A WEEK FROM TODAY. CURRENT MODEL RUNS SHOW
THICKNESSES TAKING QUITE A DIVE...BUT OF COURSE THIS ALL COULD
DRASTICALLY CHANGE AS THINGS OFTEN DO THIS FAR OUT. BUT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO WATCH THE MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...BECAUSE RIGHT NOW THEY ARE POINTING TO A QUICK "COLD" SNAP
TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH.

[boca]

It looks like the strong cold front is still on track for Wed with needed rain and finally some colder weather for one day. I don't think this front will be as strong as the cold event we had on Jan 2nd and 3rd in which the freezing line was over the Keys. In this event for next week the freezing line goes as far south as the Lake O area, which gives us mid 40's on the lower east coast.

WINDS QUICKLY TURN SOUTHERLY AGAIN TUE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MUCH
MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE DIVING DOWN ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST DURING THIS TIME. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW AMPLIFICATION
INTO A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WED-THU WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS WHICH
LENDS TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED. RIGHT NOW
MODELS SHOW A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A LATE
FEBRUARY COLD SNAP THU-FRI. IT IS FAR OUT IN TIME TO GET TOO
SPECIFIC AS THINGS STILL COULD CHANGE DRASTICALLY...BUT THIS FRONT
IS ONE TO WATCH FOR 1) STRONG/SEVERE TSTORM POTENTIAL AND 2)
FREEZE POTENTIAL. MODELS SHOW INSTABILITY ALONG WITH STRONG WIND
FIELDS...SUPPORTING THE POSSIBILITY FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. TEMP
WISE...CURRENT GFS/ECMWF RUNS SHOW THICKNESS VALUES WHICH HAVE
SUPPORTED FREEZES IN THE PAST. LOOKING AT 850 MB TEMPS...THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN LOOKS TO BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE PACK (WITH
THE 850MB ZERO LINE DOWN TO NEAR THE LAKE)...WITH SOME SOLUTIONS
COLDER AND SOME WARMER. THERE IS A LOT OF TIME TO SEE HOW ALL OF
THIS EVOLVES...BUT INCORPORATED THESE TRENDS INTO THE FCST WITH
CHANCE STORMS WED AND MUCH COLDER TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT WED NIGHT.

I really hope this pans out to be a colder senario,rather than warmer which often occurs down here.I could give my AC a 3 day rest.

[fci]

Lets hope that the scenario of storms followed by cold comes through.
Not too many more cool days ahead in this relatively warm winter.

Then we get the interminable heat.
So, give me just a few more days of no AC and fresh cool air!!!!

[flwxwatcher]

The Afternoon Miami AFD continues the cold spell talk and even mentions a freeze.

NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH QUITE A
DECENT MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING INTO THE GULF ALONG WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS
HIGH WILL COME FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND THIS FRONT HAS TO TO
WATCHED FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN ADVANCE AND A POSSIBLE FREEZE
BEHIND IT THURSDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT THIS AS
WELL. IT IS FAR OUT SO WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS SCENARIO CONTINUES
TO BE CONSISTENT.

[Sanibel]

Electric heaters use 3X the power of air conditioners.


Abnormally warm and humid here today on Sanibel. Convection cells over the mainland visible in heart of dry season.

[boca]

I think on Wednesday's cold front the lows will be around 50°F and highs around 73°F for Thursday.I don't think the cold air will be that intense since all but Miami NWS is saying just cooler not implying possible freeze like NWS Miami is sugesting. To add the freezing line is north into central Florida not S FL.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_162m.gif

[boca]

They have our low Wed nite at 51°F,which I agree. I don't agree with near freezing temps.

A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL RAPIDLY SPREAD OVER THE
AREA...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER THICKNESS VALUES AND POSITION OF
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INDICATING THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SIGNIFICANT COLD EVENT ON THURSDAY MORNING...WITH WIND CHILL
VALUES AND NEAR-FREEZING TEMPERATURES BOTH CONCERNS THAT WILL NEED
TO BE ADDRESSED AS THE EVENT APPROACHES

The 06GFS has the freezing line south of the Lake O now which is colder than the 00GFS run.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_150m.gif

[flwxwatcher]

The Gfs has been waffling back and forth with the freezing line.No matter were the freeze line does end up, I think its pretty safe to say most of Florida will get a quick cold shot mid-week.

[Scorpion]

This cold front isn't really impressive at all. Low 40's here maybe and highs in the low 60's. That's nice, but not that cold. Watch March be historically cold now though

[Sanibel]

They say 72* - 50* for us during that cold snap. (Cool snap)

[JonathanBelles]

Going for a low of 71 tonight, currently at 72.5, and temps arent dropping very fast.