TX winter wx thread: Spring-like pattern

[Ed Mahmoud]

The 12z NAM appears to be more progressive with the upper low and trough than the other models, swinging it across the state on Saturday.

(pay special attention to hours 60-84):
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

Should this verify, the by the time it's cold enough for frozen precip ... the potential for precip is long gone. Sounds pretty typical for this winter.

Looking closely at my pay-per-view AccuWx WRF model page, there may be a brief window Friday morning for sleet or even snow around DFW. Not a huge amount, ballpark 0.1" liquid equivalent, but its the only game in town.

[Extremeweatherguy]

12z GFS shows Houston stuck in the middle to upper 30s next Saturday with a cold rain. There is a brief period when 850mb temperatures fall to 0.5C and thicknesses fall to 543 though, so some mixing would not be out of the question.

[Ed Mahmoud]

12z GFS shows Houston stuck in the middle to upper 30s next Saturday with a cold rain. There is a brief period when 850mb temperatures fall to 0.5C and thicknesses fall to 543 though, so some mixing would not be out of the question.

I want enough sleet/snow/ice to cancel work, and I want it on a Monday-Friday.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 18z GFS keeps highs in Houston (at IAH) right around 40F on both Saturday and Sunday.

[Extremeweatherguy]

This quote from wxman57 from another source should raise everyone's eyebrows. Very rarely does he say that the Houston area could see any mixing of precipitation, but this time he says there is a (slim) chance...

I was just looking at some GFS forecast soundings for IAH for Sunday and it looks quite cold with the upper low moving across. In fact, I wouldn’t rule out some sleet Sunday morning before the precip ends by around noon. See links below Note the mid 30s aloft by sunrise Sunday and just barely above freezing in the lower 10,000 feet by noon Sunday, once the precip is ending. IF this actually pans out, could see some light snow flurries not far north of Houston Sunday morning. Big IF, though. Don't get your hopes up, chances are slim. NWS has lowered the projected high Saturday to the upper 40s. GFS 2 meter temps were in the upper 30s Saturday afternoon – 10 deg. Colder than the NWS forecast. Low to mid 40s may be a good possibility. With such widespread rain, the NWS 60% chance of rain is about 40% low. These WGLs will produce extensive rain through the day Saturday and into Sunday morning. No part of southeast TX will be without rain. Therefore, 100% chance of rain Saturday through Sunday morning.

6am Sunday:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/iah12Zsun.gif

Noon Sunday:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/iah18Zsun.gif

The other puzzling thing is that the LCH NWS office seems to be holding up FROPA in BPT/LCH until Sunday. It’s unlikely the front will stall between Houston and Beaumont Friday night. More likely across central or SE LA. That’ll keep BPT/LCH in the cold air all weekend. No 60s for them.

..Very interesting to say the least.

[cheezyWXguy]

This quote from wxman57 from another source should raise everyone's eyebrows. Very rarely does he say that the Houston area could see any mixing of precipitation, but this time he says there is a (slim) chance...

I was just looking at some GFS forecast soundings for IAH for Sunday and it looks quite cold with the upper low moving across. In fact, I wouldn’t rule out some sleet Sunday morning before the precip ends by around noon. See links below Note the mid 30s aloft by sunrise Sunday and just barely above freezing in the lower 10,000 feet by noon Sunday, once the precip is ending. IF this actually pans out, could see some light snow flurries not far north of Houston Sunday morning. Big IF, though. Don't get your hopes up, chances are slim. NWS has lowered the projected high Saturday to the upper 40s. GFS 2 meter temps were in the upper 30s Saturday afternoon – 10 deg. Colder than the NWS forecast. Low to mid 40s may be a good possibility. With such widespread rain, the NWS 60% chance of rain is about 40% low. These WGLs will produce extensive rain through the day Saturday and into Sunday morning. No part of southeast TX will be without rain. Therefore, 100% chance of rain Saturday through Sunday morning.

6am Sunday:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/iah12Zsun.gif

Noon Sunday:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/iah18Zsun.gif

The other puzzling thing is that the LCH NWS office seems to be holding up FROPA in BPT/LCH until Sunday. It’s unlikely the front will stall between Houston and Beaumont Friday night. More likely across central or SE LA. That’ll keep BPT/LCH in the cold air all weekend. No 60s for them.

..Very interesting to say the least.

Has he said anything about NTX? I understand that there is a good chance of seeing some winter weather occur in the DFW area, considering i have a morning high on friday at 34 or 35 degrees. Things look to be getting interesting this week.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I just PM'd WxMan57 and requested his presence on this thread. We need professional help!

[Ed Mahmoud]

I just PM'd WxMan57 and requested his presence on this thread. We need professional help!

6Z WRF holds out hope for a little sleet, or dare I say, maybe even graupel briefly Saturday am.


Not totally sure what the 6Z GFS is showing for Sunday. North Texas the 1000-500 mb thickness falls below 545 dm, and 850 mb temps approach freezing, beneath the upper low, that could be snow. Or maybe not, as my AccuWx PPV GFS raw surface temp is 4ºC.


On a different subject, that model run keeps the front very close to IAH the whole time, so the heavy rain/severe weather thing can't be ruled out.


Friday afternoon, 250 to 500 J/Kg CAPE isn't superhigh, but 15 m/s deep layer shear (~ 30 knots), while not super-high either, should at least support a few strong (maybe not severe) storms.



Saturday afternoon looks a bit more favorable, per 6Z GFS, almost 1000 J/Kg around HOU, and about 35 knots deep shear, and plenty of upward motion.

[Ed Mahmoud]

¡¡¡¡¡¡ Oh Please Oh Please Oh Please!!!!!


12Z WRF suggests some meaningful winter weather in SE Texas!

[Ed Mahmoud]

¡¡¡¡¡¡ Oh Please Oh Please Oh Please!!!!!


12Z WRF suggests some meaningful winter weather in SE Texas!

The 12Z GFS is a complete buzzkill for SE Texas

[southerngale]

NWS has my low at 43F Friday night/ Saturday morning and a high of 50F on Saturday. How could we get winter weather out of that? The forecast just shows rain, and lots of it.

I'd much rather it fall in the form of snow though.


Btw, wxman57 has said before something to the effect that he didn't realize we had winter threads on here as he always goes straight to the tropics forums. Hopefully, your PM will encourage him to visit the Winter Weather and USA Weather forums.

[Ed Mahmoud]

NWS has my low at 43F Friday night/ Saturday morning and a high of 50F on Saturday. How could we get winter weather out of that? The forecast just shows rain, and lots of it.

I'd much rather it fall in the form of snow though.


Btw, wxman57 has said before something to the effect that he didn't realize we had winter threads on here as he always goes straight to the tropics forums. Hopefully, your PM will encourage him to visit the Winter Weather and USA Weather forums.

My PM shows to still be in the Outbox, whatever that means.

[southerngale]

My PM shows to still be in the Outbox, whatever that means.

It means he hasn't picked it up yet. Once he does, it will move to your Sent folder.

[Texas Snowman]

No offense is meant to any NWS forecasters on this board, because I know there are some very hard working and very talented people out there.

Even so, I've got to admit that I don't put a lot of faith into their winter weather forecasts here in N. Texas.

For instance, in regards to this potential winter weather event in N. Texas, check out these two forecasts for my area - these two spots are about 20 miles apart, one in Texas, the other in Oklahoma.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 8&map.y=38

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 2&map.y=13

The fun up here is to see which NWS office is more accurate. Over the years, I've noticed that for Red River counties in N. Texas, the OKC office tends to be more spot on for winter weather events than the FW office is.

I guess the bottom line for winter weather in Texas is best described by something I heard about the late, great weatherman Harold Taft.

He was once asked why he didn't predict snow very often. His response, best as I recall, was that it was very rare for everything to come together in the right way at the right time for it to snow in Texas.

And then he quipped something to the effect of: "I've learned over the years that the best way to forecast snow in Texas is that when you look outside and see it snowing, forecast it."

Well said Harold!

Tx Snowman

[Texas Snowman]

BTW, another great statement from Harold (I sure miss him, he very accurately forecast the weather instead of spending his days glued to model runs) was related to rain and drought in Texas.

I believe his statement went something like this:

"The next drought in Texas begins as soon as the last flood in Texas has ended."

And one more for the road - one evening, the news anchor was commenting about a tornado in E. Texas that had flattened a single house.

As I recall, he turned to Harold and said something to the effect of "Well, it was a good thing that tornado wasn't a really bad one."

To which Harold replied, "Well, I guess that depends on whether or not that was your house that was destroyed. Because if it was, it was a bad tornado."

Tx Snowman

[shibumi]

Texas Snowman...

That is one of the concerns over this point forecast system....how can you have a forecast with a high of 34 one day then a low of 28 with mention of rain and thunderstorms without mentioning the words ice, sleet, freezing rain, or snow?

That point forecast is not put out by a human....I think some of that is automated...

Any MET want to clarrify?

JB was yelling about this a lot this past week.....as well as knocking the ASOS system for inaccurrate and untimely observation reports....

[Ed Mahmoud]

A poster from this blog posted the below super-happy image from the 12Z WRF model on a different weather forum. I won't give him credit, unless he (she?) wants me to.

[Ed Mahmoud]

18Z WRF looks more in line with 12Z models, but does promise maybe some wintry weather near Del Rio

[ColdFusion]

This rain event, right on the edge of freezing temperatures is very similair to the last DFW event a few weeks back where there the NWS office put everyone on alert for ice build up in the morning commute, 80% chance of freezing rain I believe was the forecast. I believe they had even issued a Winter Storm Warning for North Dallas.

And of course it busted. On the ride in I heard two morning shows on the radio mocking the forecast. Once I got to the office, half the staff hadn't come in because they heard the commute was going to be dangerous. And it was just a cold rain.

I think the safer call is a cold rain until something much more definitive shows itself, and in a situation like this one, where just a few degrees, or a few hours difference in timing can mean the difference between ice and rain - they are making a good call for now.

THAT SAID. Please issue a Winter Storm Warning ASAP so I can have a 3-day weekend

[shibumi]

Maybe this is a better way to show what the NAM has in it....
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/namsvrfcst/

go to precip type around 75hrs...