February 5-6: Super Tuesday Outbreak... 57 dead

[HarlequinBoy]

Forecast helicity in Memphis tomorrow late afternoon is obscene...

Wow..

[Brent]

Looks like you are the bullseye.

[HarlequinBoy]

Also I forgot what is the earliest day in the year the High Risk has been issued.?

January 21, 1999 in Arkansas, according to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_SPC_High_Risk_days
This was the day of the Little Rock F3, which swept through through downtown and across the grounds of the Governor's Mansion, as well as the devastating Beebe AR tornado.

A bit OT, but does anyone know what the official tornado count was for Jan 21-22, 1999? I know there was 56 in Arkansas alone, but I could never find a total count.

[HarlequinBoy]

:uarrow:

Looks like you are the bullseye.

It does look like it could be bad around here, but the last two two really hyped days (April 7, 2006 & March 1, 2007) ended up exploding east/southeast of here.

[CrazyC83]

Also I forgot what is the earliest day in the year the High Risk has been issued.?

January 21, 1999 in Arkansas, according to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_SPC_High_Risk_days
This was the day of the Little Rock F3, which swept through through downtown and across the grounds of the Governor's Mansion, as well as the devastating Beebe AR tornado.

A bit OT, but does anyone know what the official tornado count was for Jan 21-22, 1999? I know there was 56 in Arkansas alone, but I could never find a total count.

I believe it was around 75. There were around 110 in the entire outbreak, but it might have been higher.

[CrazyC83]

NWS Paducah just held a conference call...

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/?n=briefs - Audio and board slides

[RL3AO]

I think we really might get a high risk on February 5.

Also, how common are these conference calls and who was the met talking with? Other forecasters or media?

[HarlequinBoy]

That was interesting.

RL3AO, I think Memphis had one earlier today. I also think a High Risk looks quite likely.. unless something changes tonight I'm betting on it.


I don't think the severe weather today is supposed to get going until nightfall, right?

[RL3AO]

Tony Lauback will be chasing and he is expecting a high risk.

http://www.tornadoeskick.com/blog.html

[Brent]

Really delaying the timing of the storm here, looks like nothing until after Midnight, maybe even daybreak Wednesday and probably significantly weaker.

[CrazyC83]

That was interesting.

RL3AO, I think Memphis had one earlier today. I also think a High Risk looks quite likely.. unless something changes tonight I'm betting on it.


I don't think the severe weather today is supposed to get going until nightfall, right?

Personally, I think it will start with a strongly-worded MDT (probably 15H tornado, 45H hail, 45 wind), with the door open for an upgrade during the day.

[RL3AO]

Impressive cold front. 40 in Dodge City. 72 in Oklahoma City.

[HarlequinBoy]

Tony Lauback will be chasing and he is expecting a high risk.

http://www.tornadoeskick.com/blog.html

Just regarding his blog, I think he has the right idea for his chase.

SPC Day 2 are heavily worded mentioning the potential for long-track supercells and strong tornadoes. Storm speeds and terrain will be the issues once again as these storms will be racing northeast through the trees. I'm hopeful the terrain further north near the Tennessee border will be a bit better than what I encountered in central Alabama/Mississippi last month. Obviously it won't be plains worthy, but maybe a bit better. Trees not having leaves may also help as well.

It's still a rough chase along the TN border, but Mississippi along the River in the Delta is nearly perfect for chasing.

[Weatherfreak14]

This is going to be a super impressive event tommrow, hopefully all chasers and the rest of the public will remain safe tommrrow.

[HarlequinBoy]

The first few severe storms may occur over the next few hours.

[CrazyC83]

The first few severe storms may occur over the next few hours.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0139
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0620 PM CST MON FEB 04 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...MISSOURI...ILLINOIS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 050020Z - 050145Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WW.

SLOW DEEPENING OF A CONVECTIVE BAND IS ONGOING SOUTHEAST OF
KIRKSVILLE MO INTO AREAS EAST OF CHANUTE KS. THIS APPEARS TO BE
FOCUSED NEAR A WEAK THERMAL GRADIENT/CONFLUENCE IN FLOW AROUND 700
MB...ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FLOW...
WHICH IS ONLY PROGGED SLOWLY EASTWARD THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO
LOW AMPLITUDE POLAR IMPULSE LIFTING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE IS RAPIDLY LIFTING
NORTHEAST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND REGION. AND...THERE APPEAR TO BE
INCREASING SIGNS OF NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN DOWNSTREAM
LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS THE OZARKS. AREAS SOUTH
OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED...BUT STRENGTHENING FORCING THROUGH
THE 02-04Z TIME FRAME MAY SUPPORT INCREASING/ INTENSIFYING STORMS
NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR.

THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE LONGER TERM
PROSPECTS FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTION ALONG THE EVOLVING BAND TO THE
NORTHWEST. BUT...STORMS FORMING ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ARE GENERALLY DOING SO IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. THOUGH THE BULK OF THE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SURFACE WAVE LIFTING OUT OF
NORTHEAST MISSOURI...TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES... ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MOSTLY BASED ABOVE A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER.
THUS...THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL SEEMS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
THIS EVENING.

..KERR.. 02/05/2008


ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...

37009460 37769451 39029340 39969188 40269080 39638954
38318920 37519017 36719183 36419358 36699430

Probably will be a Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

[simplykristi]

Storms fired off 75 miles or so to our ENE. As what I read on the NWS site, they are not expected to be severe. Looks like everything will be well to our east. We have snow in our forecast for tomorrow afternoon and night. The high here was 67 degrees. We are now in the 40s and dropping.

Kristi

[HarlequinBoy]

Some thunderstorms are quickly developing around Columbia and Jefferson City.

[simplykristi]

I saw that. I wonder if those will go severe.

Kristi

[HarlequinBoy]

Looks like they have a shot at it.