February 5-6: Super Tuesday Outbreak... 57 dead

[CrazyC83]

If a tornado outbreak occurs, they should name it The Super Tuesday Super Tornado Outbreak.

I like that one, since if it impacts states voting, it could have a profound impact on the entire Presidential election by changing vote patterns...

[JonathanBelles]

I'm guessing this will dud out before making it to Florida too?

[Bunkertor]

If a tornado outbreak occurs, they should name it The Super Tuesday Super Tornado Outbreak.

Or short " Hillary "

[HarlequinBoy]

If a tornado outbreak occurs, they should name it The Super Tuesday Super Tornado Outbreak.

I like that one, since if it impacts states voting, it could have a profound impact on the entire Presidential election by changing vote patterns...

Ha, at least we have two different names for this potential outbreak instead of just dates..

[HarlequinBoy]

They've gone 45% hatched for the entire Mid-South region on Day 2.



ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT STORM MODE WILL BE A MIX OF LINEAR WITH
EMBEDDED COMPLEX STRUCTURES...AND SUPERCELLULAR. WHILE GENERALLY
LIMITED INSTABILITY /MIXED-LAYER CAPE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG/ SHOULD
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
WIDESPREAD. IN ADDITION...TORNADOES ARE ALSO EXPECTED...AND THE
FORECAST DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL THAT A FEW
OF THESE COULD BE STRONG/SIGNIFICANT EVENTS.

[CrazyC83]

If a tornado outbreak occurs, they should name it The Super Tuesday Super Tornado Outbreak.

I like that one, since if it impacts states voting, it could have a profound impact on the entire Presidential election by changing vote patterns...

Ha, at least we have two different names for this potential outbreak instead of just dates..

Yeah, names are hard to come by unless they fall on an important date (or near one)...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Being HOU centric, lunch time tomorrow looks like our shot:


Little warm nose between 700 and 800 mb level probably why it stays capped South of I-10



Later in the day, looks hard for Jackson to avoid at least severe gusts, with 50 knot winds just above the surface...


Maybe a tad less turning in the low level winds than what is ideal for tornadoes, but it should still be an interesting afternoon/evening.

[CrazyC83]

States in line for the outbreak that are voting tomorrow: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Illinois, Missouri, Tennessee

[Squarethecircle]

Hehe... This'll be the second time this year my uncle will be in the position to get hit by a tornado. Not that I am thankful; more like envious.

I don't think this will change the presidential election much. Statistically younger voters will probably have a larger turnout (adventurous?), but overall I think that the turnout will be a decent representative of the entire areas as a whole.

That is, unless Clinton wins.

What I am dreading is that some weather forecasters will yell, "Who could have predicted this? What a surprising event!" Probably some newscasters too. It seems like no one actually goes out and looks at the darn maps anymore (except us and the pros, but it never seems to get out into the public anyway).

[CrazyC83]

Day 1 SLGT enlarged slightly but risks not changed (IMO there should be a 10% tornado there), Day 2 MDT enlarged considerably (maybe a HIGH tomorrow?)

SPC AC 041705

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 AM CST MON FEB 04 2008

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF AR...SERN MO...SRN
IL...SRN IN...CENTRAL AND WRN KY...MIDDLE AND WRN TN...PARTS OF NRN
AND WRN AL...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NRN MS...PARTS OF NRN LA......

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PORTIONS OF SRN PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER AND MID MS AND TN/OH VALLEYS......

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK LIKELY OVER LARGE PORTION OF SOUTH
CENTRAL U.S. TUESDAY...

THE LARGE TROUGH CURRENTLY WRN U.S. WILL AGGRESSIVELY MOVE FROM
SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY TUE AS VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SYSTEM
ENTERS PAC NW.

AN UNSEASONABLY LARGE WARM SECTOR WILL BE IN PLACE BY EARLY TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NRN TX AND TO THE S OF FRONTAL
ZONE THAT EXTENDS NEWD ACROSS MID MS TO LOWER OH VALLEYS.

WITH 60F DEWPOINTS IN PLACE NWD TO FRONTAL ZONE AS FAR E AS SRN
IN/OH AND MID/UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS GULF STATES FROM ERN TX TO AL...THE
THERMODYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. THRU TUESDAY NIGHT.

MID/UPPER LEVEL JET MAX IN EXCESS OF 100KT WILL TRACK FROM SRN
PLAINS TO LOWER OH/WRN TN VALLEYS BY TUE NIGHT. COUPLED WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET BACKING AND INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON TO 50-60KT
LOWER MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW...VERY
STRONG/VEERING SHEAR PROFILES DEVELOP...SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
MUCH OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TUE AM AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW ERN OK/NRN TX INTO WRN AR. SEVERE THREAT WILL SPREAD
NEWD ACROSS MID MS INTO LOWER OH VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY
BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON SURFACED BASED STORMS ARE LIKELY IN THE WARM
SECTOR SPREADING EWD ACROSS LOWER MS/WRN TN VALLEYS.

WITH MLCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR
AND SUCH STRONG SHEAR PROFILES...TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY BOTH
WITH THE SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW/NEAR FRONTAL ZONE AND
WITH ANY WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT. LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS WILL HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES OVER MUCH OF THE MDT RISK AREA THRU
THE EVENING HOURS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THRU TUE NIGHT
AND EVOLVE MORE INTO A SQUALL LINE WITH ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WELL AFTER DARK
PARTICULARLY IN AREA WHERE HIGHER CAPES ARE AVAILABLE FROM TN SWD.

..HALES.. 02/04/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1715Z (12:15PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[Weatherfreak14]

I got to ask, what is the earliest high risk outlook that was put out by the SPC ever for an event. It looks this could be a pretty sig. event.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Forecast helicity in Memphis tomorrow late afternoon is obscene...

[JonathanBelles]

This system may have an impact on Atlantis' Launch Thursday as well. Here is a snip it from a press release by NASA about the launch probability:

"Frick said the crew would keep its eyes on the weather, too, following a forecast calling for a 40 percent chance of acceptable conditions at launch time."

40% isnt very high.

[CrazyC83]

I got to ask, what is the earliest high risk outlook that was put out by the SPC ever for an event. It looks this could be a pretty sig. event.

The earliest is 1730Z on Day 2 (issued for April 7, 2006 the previous afternoon). That is the only known High Risk issued on a Day 2 forecast. More often they will hold it at a Moderate Risk with mention of a possible upgrade since they need to be really certain to make the jump at least 18 hours before any activity.

[PurdueWx80]

this is going to be huge. the only negative i see for a major outbreak is that perhaps the upper system will move eastwards slower than forecast now, which would affect the development and progression of the surface low (i.e. delaying it until tomorrow night, when limited instability fades). the dew points down there, already, are in the 60s to near 70. almost unreal. the threat to the east coast on wednesday is high, too, i believe.

with this, and the heavy snow across the plains/midwest, voter turnout will likely be very low in states with primaries tomorrow. it does look like chicagoland will escape the heaviest snow during polling hours, though.

and not to be ignored is the wintry side of this storm. if the heavy snow has a duration as long as i think it might, this will be crippling come wednesday morning across the upper midwest and lakes.

[wall_cloud]

Ed, per that NAM sounding, it looks like you've got a good cap you'll have to erode first. It can play in your favor, bottling up all of the available energy until later afternoon or it can work against you...leaving a bunch of wx enthusiasts with a lot of flat CU.

definitly looks best across the TN/lower Mississipp valleys.

[brunota2003]

this is going to be huge. the only negative i see for a major outbreak is that perhaps the upper system will move eastwards slower than forecast now, which would affect the development and progression of the surface low (i.e. delaying it until tomorrow night, when limited instability fades). the dew points down there, already, are in the 60s to near 70. almost unreal. the threat to the east coast on wednesday is high, too, i believe.

with this, and the heavy snow across the plains/midwest, voter turnout will likely be very low in states with primaries tomorrow. it does look like chicagoland will escape the heaviest snow during polling hours, though.

and not to be ignored is the wintry side of this storm. if the heavy snow has a duration as long as i think it might, this will be crippling come wednesday morning across the upper midwest and lakes.

Interesting you mention the east coast. What do you see, at this time, for us? I know SPC decided to go with a Day 3 SLT Risk, just to be on the safe side...but if it is anything like the last front, just a low topped squall line that doesnt really do much until it pushes off the coast. It'll be warmer, and convective debris will be a major factor, but what are we currently looking at, in your opinion? (BTW, I lie between New Bern and Morehead City).

[Weatherfreak14]

I got to ask, what is the earliest high risk outlook that was put out by the SPC ever for an event. It looks this could be a pretty sig. event.

The earliest is 1730Z on Day 2 (issued for April 7, 2006 the previous afternoon). That is the only known High Risk issued on a Day 2 forecast. More often they will hold it at a Moderate Risk with mention of a possible upgrade since they need to be really certain to make the jump at least 18 hours before any activity.

Also I forgot what is the earliest day in the year the High Risk has been issued.?

[SamSagnella]

Also I forgot what is the earliest day in the year the High Risk has been issued.?

January 21, 1999 in Arkansas, according to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_SPC_High_Risk_days
This was the day of the Little Rock F3, which swept through through downtown and across the grounds of the Governor's Mansion, as well as the devastating Beebe AR tornado.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Just a hint of a cap at 850 mb at DFW for am rush hour tomorrow, so storms might be slightly elevated, per 12Z WRF forecast sounding, but if storms can become surface based- yowza.