South Indian Ocean: Tropical Cyclone 17S
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
South Indian Ocean: Tropical Cyclone 17S
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN
Issued at 12:00pm WDT on Saturday the 2nd of February 2008
For the area south of LATITUDE 10 SOUTH between LONGITUDES 90 - 110 EAST
There are no significant tropical lows evident at this time. However, there has
been increased convection over tropical waters. There are indications that a
tropical low is forming in the vicinity of 11S 099E. This low is expected to
persist over the next few days with no strong indication of further development.
The likelihood of a tropical cyclone occurring in the next three days is:
Sunday: Low
Monday: Moderate
Tuesday: Moderate
REMARKS
NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of ****
tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. ****
LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.7S 83.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 695 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT
ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY BOTH SHOW
DEEP CONVECTION FLARING NEAR A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 021432Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS WEAK CON-
VECTIVE BANDING FORMING TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
THE DEVELOPING LLCC IS LOCATED IN A AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
Could become our next player!
0 likes
- HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN
Issued at 12:00pm WDT on Sunday the 3rd of February 2008
For the area south of LATITUDE 10 SOUTH between LONGITUDES 90 - 110 EAST
A tropical low is developing near 11S100E with some convection beginning to
persist on the western and southern side of the low centre through the diurnal
cycle. Shear is likely to increase in this location over the next 24-48 hours
and the likelihood of development decreases during the outlook period.
There are no other significant lows observed or expected to develop in the
forecast area.
The likelihood of a tropical cyclone occurring in the next three days is:
Monday: Moderate
Tuesday: Moderate
Wednesday: Moderate
REMARKS
NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of ****
tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. ****
LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more
Western Australia
TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN
Issued at 12:00pm WDT on Sunday the 3rd of February 2008
For the area south of LATITUDE 10 SOUTH between LONGITUDES 90 - 110 EAST
A tropical low is developing near 11S100E with some convection beginning to
persist on the western and southern side of the low centre through the diurnal
cycle. Shear is likely to increase in this location over the next 24-48 hours
and the likelihood of development decreases during the outlook period.
There are no other significant lows observed or expected to develop in the
forecast area.
The likelihood of a tropical cyclone occurring in the next three days is:
Monday: Moderate
Tuesday: Moderate
Wednesday: Moderate
REMARKS
NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of ****
tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. ****
LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2165
- Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2007 4:00 pm
- Location: Fairfax, VA
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.3S 99.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 190 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND. RECENT MULTI-
SPECTRAL AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY BOTH SHOW DEEP CONVECTION
FLARING NEAR A BROAD, BUT DEVELOPING, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 030236Z AMSUB MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS WEAK CONVECTIVE BAN-
DING FORMING TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUSPECTED LLCC. THE DEVELOPING LLCC
IS LOCATED IN A AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
0 likes
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 99.7E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 100.3E, APPROXIMATELY 265 NM SOUTHEAST OF
COCOS ISLAND. RECENT INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY BOTH
CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP CONVECTION FLARING NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF
THE BETTER ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 032351Z
QUIKSCAT IMAGE DEPICTS 20 TO 30 KNOTS UNFLAGGED WINDS ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. A 032334Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING FORMING TO THE WEST AND TO THE SOUTH OF
THE DEVELOPING LLCC. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS LOW TO MODERATE,
BUT UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GOOD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS EST-
IMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION
OF THE DEVELOPING LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO FAIR.
0 likes
- HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
04/0230 UTC 15.0S 101.0E T1.5/1.5 92S -- South Indian Ocean
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0310UTC 4 FEBRUARY 2008
GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA
Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
SITUATION
At 0000 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude fifteen decimal four south [15.4S]
longitude one hundred and one decimal five east [101.5E]
Recent movement : south at 7 knots
Central pressure: 1000 hPa
The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 24
hours.
AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nautical miles of the centre in the western quadrant, extending to
within 120 nautical miles in remaining quadrants in 12 to 24 hours.
FORECAST
Winds 30/40 knots within 120 nautical miles of the western quadrant, extending
to within 120 nautical miles in remaining quadrants in 12 to 24 hours with rough
to very rough seas and moderate swell.
Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 04 February: Within 55 nautical miles of 16.1 south 102.3 east
Central pressure 994 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.
At 0000 UTC 05 February: Within 75 nautical miles of 16.7 south 102.5 east
Central pressure 988 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.
REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.
Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 04 February 2008.
WEATHER PERTH
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0310UTC 4 FEBRUARY 2008
GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA
Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
SITUATION
At 0000 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude fifteen decimal four south [15.4S]
longitude one hundred and one decimal five east [101.5E]
Recent movement : south at 7 knots
Central pressure: 1000 hPa
The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 24
hours.
AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nautical miles of the centre in the western quadrant, extending to
within 120 nautical miles in remaining quadrants in 12 to 24 hours.
FORECAST
Winds 30/40 knots within 120 nautical miles of the western quadrant, extending
to within 120 nautical miles in remaining quadrants in 12 to 24 hours with rough
to very rough seas and moderate swell.
Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 04 February: Within 55 nautical miles of 16.1 south 102.3 east
Central pressure 994 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.
At 0000 UTC 05 February: Within 75 nautical miles of 16.7 south 102.5 east
Central pressure 988 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.
REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.
Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 04 February 2008.
WEATHER PERTH
0 likes
IDW23100
40:3:1:24:16S101E999:11:00
SECURITE
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0701UTC 4 FEBRUARY 2008
GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA
Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
SITUATION
At 0600 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude fifteen decimal eight south [15.8S]
longitude one hundred and one decimal one east [101.1E]
Recent movement : southwest at 6 knots
Central pressure: 996 hPa
The low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 24 hours.
AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nautical miles of the centre in the western quadrant, extending to
within 120 nautical miles in remaining quadrants in 12 to 24 hours.
FORECAST
Clockwise winds 30/40 knots within 120 nautical miles of the western quadrant,
extending to within 120 nautical miles in remaining quadrants in 12 to 24 hours
with rough to very rough seas and moderate swell.
Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 04 February: Within 55 nautical miles of 16.8 south 101.2 east
Central pressure 992 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 05 February: Within 75 nautical miles of 17.4 south 102.1 east
Central pressure 986 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.
REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.
Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 04 February 2008.
WEATHER PERTH
40:3:1:24:16S101E999:11:00
SECURITE
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0701UTC 4 FEBRUARY 2008
GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA
Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.
SITUATION
At 0600 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude fifteen decimal eight south [15.8S]
longitude one hundred and one decimal one east [101.1E]
Recent movement : southwest at 6 knots
Central pressure: 996 hPa
The low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 24 hours.
AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nautical miles of the centre in the western quadrant, extending to
within 120 nautical miles in remaining quadrants in 12 to 24 hours.
FORECAST
Clockwise winds 30/40 knots within 120 nautical miles of the western quadrant,
extending to within 120 nautical miles in remaining quadrants in 12 to 24 hours
with rough to very rough seas and moderate swell.
Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 04 February: Within 55 nautical miles of 16.8 south 101.2 east
Central pressure 992 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 05 February: Within 75 nautical miles of 17.4 south 102.1 east
Central pressure 986 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.
REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.
Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 04 February 2008.
WEATHER PERTH
0 likes
Re: South Indian Ocean: Invest 92S
Thanks Chacor, my name is actually Gail but I didn't want to confuse it with "Gale".
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2165
- Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2007 4:00 pm
- Location: Fairfax, VA
-
- Category 3
- Posts: 812
- Joined: Fri May 18, 2007 9:31 pm
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2165
- Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2007 4:00 pm
- Location: Fairfax, VA
- wyq614
- Category 3
- Posts: 827
- Age: 36
- Joined: Sun Dec 02, 2007 12:32 am
- Location: Beijing, China (Hometown: Qingdao, China, 36.06N 120.43E)
- Contact:
Everyone gets up here! Believe in our 92S
IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 2:00pm WDT on Wednesday the 6th of February 2008
For the area south of LATITUDE 10 SOUTH between LONGITUDES 110 - 125 EAST
There are no significant lows currently in the region however a tropical low
near 16S 103E is expected to move east and enter the area late on Friday. In
combination with an expected increase in monsoonal activity across the region it
is likely a significant system will become established in waters off the North
West coast over the weekend.
The likelihood of a tropical cyclone occurring in the region in the next three
days is:
Thursday :Low
Friday :Moderate
Saturday :High
IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 2:00pm WDT on Wednesday the 6th of February 2008
For the area south of LATITUDE 10 SOUTH between LONGITUDES 110 - 125 EAST
There are no significant lows currently in the region however a tropical low
near 16S 103E is expected to move east and enter the area late on Friday. In
combination with an expected increase in monsoonal activity across the region it
is likely a significant system will become established in waters off the North
West coast over the weekend.
The likelihood of a tropical cyclone occurring in the region in the next three
days is:
Thursday :Low
Friday :Moderate
Saturday :High
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests