NOLA area pm rush hour severe outbreak

[Ed Mahmoud]

Can't see anything due fog, but fog looks darker...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
832 AM CST THU JAN 31 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS
LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS
MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS
SOUTHERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS

* UNTIL 900 AM CST

* AT 830 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
THE WOODLANDS...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PORTER HEIGHTS...
PORTER HEIGHTS...
PATTON VILLAGE...
WOODBRANCH...
ROMAN FOREST...
SPLENDORA...
CLEVELAND...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CST THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...
OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3036 9542 3040 9531 3046 9503 3011 9497
3009 9528 3008 9551 3029 9549
TIME...MOT...LOC 1432Z 259DEG 43KT 3015 9540

$$

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Ed Mahmoud]

Fog lifted, dark as night.

Severe warning here at Galleria.

[Ed Mahmoud]

West wind, still cloudy w/ light rain, not that big of a deal.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Gulfport, MS looks like afternoon severe pick city of the day...

[CrazyC83]

I thought this was a bit unusual from earlier today.

NOTE...

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED FOR DAMAGING
WINDS IN THE HIGH WIND WARNING AREA. IF LARGE HAIL IS DETERMINED
TO BE THE HAZARD...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ISSUED. THE HIGH
WIND WARNING WILL NOT AFFECT TORNADO WARNINGS.

It makes sense though.

I somewhat agree, but if the winds are clearly stronger than the gradient (i.e. hurricane force), I would have issued a severe thunderstorm warning. Some winds were as high as 105 mph in some thunderstorms.

[Ed Mahmoud]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0116
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0957 AM CST THU JAN 31 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX THROUGH SRN LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 29...

VALID 311557Z - 311800Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 29 CONTINUES.

THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ENEWD THROUGH SERN TX AND SWRN LA NEXT FEW
HOURS. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS TO BECOME SURFACE BASED AND POSE A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES EXTENDS FROM EXTREME SERN TX INTO
EXTREME SWRN LA NEXT COUPLE HOURS. TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE
FARTHER EAST OVER SRN LA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN SERN TX SEWD THROUGH
THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO. FARTHER WEST A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM N CNTRL
TX SWD THROUGH SERN TX THEN SWWD TO NEAR LAREDO. A LINE OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SOME EMBEDDED DISCRETE CELLS CONTINUES FROM
NRN LA SWWD THROUGH SERN TX AND INTO THE NWRN GULF MOVING ENE AT 45
TO 50 KT. WITH PRIMARY WARM SECTOR STILL OFFSHORE...MOST STORMS ARE
STILL ELEVATED WITH THE MAIN SHORT TERM THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...A 50 KT SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT
SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS
AND ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM EWD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL NWD PROGRESSION OF WARM FRONT INTO PARTS
OF SRN LA...WITH AT LEAST A SMALL WARM SECTOR MOVING ONTO THE LA
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS OVER SERN TX MAY ALREADY BE NEAR
SURFACE BASED WHERE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S. VWP
DATA SHOW LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITH STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IN
EXCESS OF 400 M2/S2 SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES ONCE STORMS ROOT COMPLETELY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN
THE PRIMARY THREAT FARTHER INLAND NEXT COUPLE HOURS WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S.

..DIAL.. 01/31/2008


ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

29499260 29539317 29529378 29309442 28809523 28869573
29649535 30209431 30219341 30039264 29739246

[Bunkertor]

When did they launch the TOR-watch ? At 8 am ?

[Ed Mahmoud]

When did they launch the TOR-watch ? At 8 am ?

6 am CST, I think. Just after I woke up.

[Bunkertor]

When did they launch the TOR-watch ? At 8 am ?

6 am CST, I think. Just after I woke up.

Was this justified or did they only want to handle with care ?

[Ed Mahmoud]

When did they launch the TOR-watch ? At 8 am ?

6 am CST, I think. Just after I woke up.

Was this justified or did they only want to handle with care ?

Reading the MD and watch, there was concern, especially South of I-10 and East of I-45, the shallow stable layer was shallow enough, and warm enough, for surface based storms North of the warm front, and low level shear was high.


No tornado reports yet, but I wouldn't be surprised near/South of I-10 corridor to Alabama of a few, especially with any sunlight getitng through.

I think Corfidi wrote the watch, and if you look around, he is much published, and apparently pretty senior at SPC.

[Ed Mahmoud]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0118
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1206 PM CST THU JAN 31 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA THROUGH THE MS BOOTHEEL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 29...

VALID 311806Z - 311900Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 29 CONTINUES.

WW 29 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 19Z. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST DOWNSTREAM INTO SERN LA AND EVENTUALLY THE MS
BOOTHEEL THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE TORNADO WATCH 29 WILL LIKELY BE
REPLACED BY ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH AROUND 1830Z.

LATEST SURFACE DATA SHOW A SMALL WARM SECTOR HAS MOVED INLAND ACROSS
SRN LA SOUTH OF A NWD RETREATING WARM FRONT. THIS WARM SECTOR IS
CHARACTERIZED BY BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS BASED ON THESE
SURFACE CONDITIONS SUGGEST STORMS SHOULD BECOME CLOSE ENOUGH TO
SURFACE BASED TO POSE A RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED TORNADOES AS THEY ADVANCE EWD. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL
PERSIST IN THIS REGION DOWNSTREAM FROM AN EWD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND MAINTAIN FAVORABLE 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS FOR SUPERCELLS WITH
LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR SO FAR HAS BEEN THE
MARGINAL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...SOME FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM
AND MOISTEN.

..DIAL.. 01/31/2008


ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

[Bunkertor]

OK, thanks for information. I´ll tune in later on...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Changed thread name because NOLA/South Louisiana next up.



NOLA radar loop

[Ed Mahmoud]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
200 PM CST THU JAN 31 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ZACHARY...BAKER...
EAST FELICIANA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CLINTON...
LIVINGSTON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
ST. HELENA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF GREENSBURG...
TANGIPAHOA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF AMITE...

* UNTIL 245 PM CST

* AT 156 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
ZACHARY...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SLAUGHTER...GREENWELL SPRING...WATSON...PRIDE...DARLINGTON...
MONTPELIER...EASLEYVILLE...ROSELAND AND KENTWOOD

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CST THURSDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3100 9046 3068 9036 3049 9119 3050 9119
3053 9122 3075 9129 3079 9124 3089 9115
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 253DEG 49KT 3069 9115

[Ed Mahmoud]

First tornado warning of the day.

TORNADO WARNING
LAC105-117-312115-
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0012.080131T2049Z-080131T2115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
249 PM CST THU JAN 31 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
TANGIPAHOA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
WASHINGTON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF FRANKLINTON...

* UNTIL 315 PM CST

* AT 247 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR WILMER...OR
ABOUT 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF AMITE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
6 MILES SOUTH OF MOUNT HERMAN BY 255 PM CST...
FRANKLINTON BY 305 PM CST...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CST THURSDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3081 8984 3077 9047 3097 9050 3101 8987
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 263DEG 41KT 3087 9038

$$

[LAwxrgal]

It's really coming down now. Nothing severe yet, but the stuff to our west looks nasty.

[Bunkertor]

TORNADO WARNING
MSC035-312245-
/O.NEW.KJAN.TO.W.0037.080131T2220Z-080131T2245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
420 PM CST THU JAN 31 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN FORREST COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 445 PM CST

* AT 420 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
TORNADO 8 MILES WEST OF MAXIE...OR ABOUT 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF
WIGGINS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MAXIE BY 425 PM CST...
BROOKLYN BY 430 PM CST...
9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MCLAURIN BY 435 PM CST...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Least active day, severe weather wise, of all the severe t-storm a few days out threads I started.


Yesterday's storm reports.