NOLA area pm rush hour severe outbreak
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Ed Mahmoud
Re: SPC sees Jan 31st Gulf Coast severe outbreak
Thursday evening- lmited instability over MS and AL, but decent wind/shear.
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Ed Mahmoud
Re:
RL3AO wrote:I'm guessing we will have a Day 3 SLGT tomorrow?
I'm guessing that. Pretty impressive shear, but not much surface based instability.
Louisiana and Mississippi on Thursday afternoon and evening, looks like.
Closer to home, late morning Thursday, while surface CAPE is only around 100 J/Kg, TT is over 50, per my AccuWx PPV page, so enough mid-level instability for thunder, and 850 mb winds near 50 knots, might be enough for a healthy storm. As an aside, behind the front, WRF seems to indicate North of I-20 may see the happy coincidence of a little precip and sub 540 DM thickness/850 mb freezing line for a little excitement Thursday night and Friday.
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Ed Mahmoud
Re: SPC sees Jan 31st Gulf Coast severe outbreak
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0132 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2008
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF CST
AND DEEP S...
...GULF CST/DEEP S...
STG MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SRN PLAINS AT 12Z
THU WILL EVOLVE INTO AN UPR LOW AND TRANSLATE INTO THE LWR OH VLY BY
THU NIGHT. AT THE SFC...A WEAK LOW OVER N TX EARLY THU WILL TRACK
NEWD INTO THE LWR OH VLY BY THU NIGHT WHILE A STRONGER LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE NWRN GULF. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS CNTRL LA...CNTRL
MS...NWRN AL AND MIDDLE TN BY THU EVENING...BEFORE RAPIDLY MOVING
NWD INTO SRN IND/SWRN OH BY 12Z FRI.
THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWING THE LEAD WAVE MOVING JUST N OF THE REGION
ON MON-TUE IS QUITE STRONG AND MAY PENETRATE INTO THE GULF BASIN
FARTHER THAN EARLIER FCST. NONETHELESS...A RAPID BACKING OF THE
LOW/MID-LVL FLOW WILL COMMENCE BY EARLY THU...WITH STRONG WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION ACROSS THE GULF CST REGION AND DEEP S. MAJORITY OF THIS
DERIVED LIFT WILL MAKE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/SHOWERS...AND MAY LIMIT NWD
RETURN OF MORE ROBUST MSTR INTO MUCH OF THE DEEP S. IT STILL
APPEARS THAT AT LEAST LWR 60S SFC DEW POINTS WILL ADVECT INTO SERN
LA INTO CSTL MS/AL/FL...WITH 50S EXPECTED AS FAR N AS CNTRL MS/AL.
VERY STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL MOVE ENEWD ACROSS THIS EVOLVING
WARM SECTOR THU AFTN...SUFFICIENT FOR DEVELOPING A SQUALL LINE.
100+ KT OF SSWLY MID-LVL FLOW ATOP STRONG SLY LOW-LVL FLOW WILL
BOOST VERTICAL SHEAR INTO THE SUPERCELL RANGE. ANY DISCRETE CELLS
THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE...PARTICULARLY ALONG
NWD EDGE OF MORE QUALITY BOUNDARY LAYER MSTR MAY PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHERWISE...DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY AS THE TSTMS RAPIDLY MOVE
ENEWD INTO CNTRL/SRN PARTS OF MS/AL. THE SVR THREAT WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH WITH EWD EXTENT AND TIME THROUGH THU NIGHT.
FARTHER N...AT LEAST AN ISOLD HAIL AND/OR DMGG WIND THREAT WILL
EXIST INTO PARTS OF NRN MS/AL ALONG THE TRACK OF STRONGEST HEIGHT
FALLS DURING THE AFTN/EVE. HERE...NRN EDGE OF THE SQUALL LINE MAY BE
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR N THE WARM SECTOR CAN
DEVELOP.
..RACY.. 01/29/2008
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0132 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2008
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF CST
AND DEEP S...
...GULF CST/DEEP S...
STG MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SRN PLAINS AT 12Z
THU WILL EVOLVE INTO AN UPR LOW AND TRANSLATE INTO THE LWR OH VLY BY
THU NIGHT. AT THE SFC...A WEAK LOW OVER N TX EARLY THU WILL TRACK
NEWD INTO THE LWR OH VLY BY THU NIGHT WHILE A STRONGER LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE NWRN GULF. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS CNTRL LA...CNTRL
MS...NWRN AL AND MIDDLE TN BY THU EVENING...BEFORE RAPIDLY MOVING
NWD INTO SRN IND/SWRN OH BY 12Z FRI.
THE COLD FRONT FOLLOWING THE LEAD WAVE MOVING JUST N OF THE REGION
ON MON-TUE IS QUITE STRONG AND MAY PENETRATE INTO THE GULF BASIN
FARTHER THAN EARLIER FCST. NONETHELESS...A RAPID BACKING OF THE
LOW/MID-LVL FLOW WILL COMMENCE BY EARLY THU...WITH STRONG WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION ACROSS THE GULF CST REGION AND DEEP S. MAJORITY OF THIS
DERIVED LIFT WILL MAKE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/SHOWERS...AND MAY LIMIT NWD
RETURN OF MORE ROBUST MSTR INTO MUCH OF THE DEEP S. IT STILL
APPEARS THAT AT LEAST LWR 60S SFC DEW POINTS WILL ADVECT INTO SERN
LA INTO CSTL MS/AL/FL...WITH 50S EXPECTED AS FAR N AS CNTRL MS/AL.
VERY STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL MOVE ENEWD ACROSS THIS EVOLVING
WARM SECTOR THU AFTN...SUFFICIENT FOR DEVELOPING A SQUALL LINE.
100+ KT OF SSWLY MID-LVL FLOW ATOP STRONG SLY LOW-LVL FLOW WILL
BOOST VERTICAL SHEAR INTO THE SUPERCELL RANGE. ANY DISCRETE CELLS
THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE...PARTICULARLY ALONG
NWD EDGE OF MORE QUALITY BOUNDARY LAYER MSTR MAY PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHERWISE...DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY AS THE TSTMS RAPIDLY MOVE
ENEWD INTO CNTRL/SRN PARTS OF MS/AL. THE SVR THREAT WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH WITH EWD EXTENT AND TIME THROUGH THU NIGHT.
FARTHER N...AT LEAST AN ISOLD HAIL AND/OR DMGG WIND THREAT WILL
EXIST INTO PARTS OF NRN MS/AL ALONG THE TRACK OF STRONGEST HEIGHT
FALLS DURING THE AFTN/EVE. HERE...NRN EDGE OF THE SQUALL LINE MAY BE
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR N THE WARM SECTOR CAN
DEVELOP.
..RACY.. 01/29/2008
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Ed Mahmoud
Re: SPC sees Jan 29th & 31st severe outbreak
Went and added today's date to January 31st in the thread title.
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Ed Mahmoud
Re: SPC sees Jan 29th & 31st severe outbreak
Arkansas may get a watch this morning.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0102
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AR AND NORTHERN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 291357Z - 291530Z
AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS
MORNING FROM THE ARKLATEX VICINITY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
AR AND NORTHERN LA. AS SURFACE BASED STORMS BECOME MORE LIKELY...A
WATCH COULD BE NEEDED A BIT LATER THIS MORNING.
WITHIN A LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS AND REGION OF HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM
OF HIGH PLAINS UPPER TROUGH...SATELLITE/VOLUMETRIC RADAR TRENDS
REFLECT A GRADUAL INTENSITY INCREASE IN STORMS SINCE DAWN ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX REGION. WHILE TOTAL INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY LIMITED PER 12Z
OBSERVED LITTLE ROCK/SHREVEPORT RAOBS...MODIFIED/RUC SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE AS
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE MIDDLE 60S. GIVEN THE STRONG
KINEMATICS/WIND FIELDS AND HIGH SRH ENVIRONMENT THAT IS IN
PLACE...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR AN
INCREASING RISK OF SEVERE BASED STORMS WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS/A FEW TORNADOES AND PERHAPS SEVERE HAIL.
..GUYER.. 01/29/2008
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Ed Mahmoud
Re: SPC sees Jan 29th & 31st severe outbreak
Texarkana this morning, instability is somewhat modest, but check out the winds and shear! (RUC model sounding)
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Ed Mahmoud
Re: SPC sees Jan 29th & 31st severe outbreak
Getting back to Thursday (thread was originally titled just 1/31/08), while surface based instability isn't all that high, it is probably enough for much of Lousiana and the Southern half of MS and AL based on upward motion and strong low level winds, turning with height.
If it stays like this, when we get to Thursday morning, I wouldn't be surprised to see a Moderate Risk area South of about an AEX to HEZ to JAN to DHN line.
If it stays like this, when we get to Thursday morning, I wouldn't be surprised to see a Moderate Risk area South of about an AEX to HEZ to JAN to DHN line.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0103
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1021 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR...SE MO...SRN IL...WRN KY AND WRN TN
CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE
VALID 291621Z - 291715Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK IS BEING UPGRADED TO MODERATE RISK OVER
THE MID MS VALLEY INCLUDING THE STATES OF SRN IL...WRN KY...WRN TN
AND NERN AR. THE LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATE THE WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE SQUALL-LINE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND A TORNADO
THREAT BEING LIKELY ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
..BROYLES.. 01/29/2008
ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...
35109065 35389107 35719122 36099105 37169021 37838967
38328887 38328796 37878722 37168724 35988804 35368875
35018943 34969001
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1021 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR...SE MO...SRN IL...WRN KY AND WRN TN
CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE
VALID 291621Z - 291715Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK IS BEING UPGRADED TO MODERATE RISK OVER
THE MID MS VALLEY INCLUDING THE STATES OF SRN IL...WRN KY...WRN TN
AND NERN AR. THE LATEST MODEL DATA INDICATE THE WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE SQUALL-LINE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND A TORNADO
THREAT BEING LIKELY ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
..BROYLES.. 01/29/2008
ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...
35109065 35389107 35719122 36099105 37169021 37838967
38328887 38328796 37878722 37168724 35988804 35368875
35018943 34969001
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SPC AC 291620
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2008
VALID 291630Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF SERN MO...SRN IL...SWRN
IN...WRN KY AND NERN AR...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY
EWD TO THE APPALACHIANS...
...LOWER/MID MS VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS...
THE AREA OF GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL...PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS FOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A MDT RISK.
INTENSE S/WV TROUGH ATTM CENTRAL PLAINS MOVING RAPIDLY EWD AND WILL
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT CROSSES OH/TN VALLEY EARLY TONIGHT.
POWERFUL POLAR JET MAX WITH SPEEDS OF 100-110KT AT 500MB AND TO
160KT AT 300MB CURRENTLY CROSSING OK REACHES MID MS VALLEY BY 00Z
AND TO APPALACHIANS 12Z WED.
MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE RAPIDLY RETURNING NEWD INTO LOWER/MID MS
VALLEY AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT AT 15Z EXTENDING FROM ERN IA
TO SWRN OK. THE EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TODAY WILL
ONLY BE LIMITED BY THE ABILITY OF THE AIR MASS TO DESTABILIZE PRIOR
TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AS KINEMATICS AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE
VERY FAVORABLE.
SHEAR PROFILES ALL READY IN PLACE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS IN THE WARM
SECTOR LWR TO MID MS VALLEY AND WITH THE STRONG ASCENT AND MID LEVEL
COOLING SPREADING EWD FROM SRN PLAINS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING
IN THE MOIST AXIS FROM NERN TX NEWD TO WRN TN. INITIALLY STORMS ARE
ELEVATED BUT AS CINH STEADILY ERODES POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL INCREASE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES
SPREADING NEWD ACROSS MS VLY INTO WRN TN VALLEY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOS ALONG WITH WIND DAMAGE.
PRIMARY ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES MID MS VALLEY INTO
LOWER OH VALLEY/TN VALLEY BY MID AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG FORCING
BOTH WITH THE COLD FRONT AND INTENSE S/WV TROUGH SUGGEST THE
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL RAPIDLY BECOME LINEAR. HOWEVER SUPERCELLS ARE
POSSIBLE BOTH JUST AHEAD AND EMBEDDED IN THE LINE THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH TORNADIC POTENTIAL. DAMAGING WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN AS THE RATHER LIMITED AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
DIMINISHES AS THE CONVECTION MOVES EWD THRU THE OH/TN VALLEYS. GIVEN
THE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT EVEN AS THE
CONVECTIVE CONTRIBUTION DECREASES WITH LOSS OF INSTABILITY.
..HALES.. 01/29/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1629Z (11:29AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
Main threat is probably damaging winds (maybe a derecho? although it is not hatched)
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2008
VALID 291630Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF SERN MO...SRN IL...SWRN
IN...WRN KY AND NERN AR...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY
EWD TO THE APPALACHIANS...
...LOWER/MID MS VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS...
THE AREA OF GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL...PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS FOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A MDT RISK.
INTENSE S/WV TROUGH ATTM CENTRAL PLAINS MOVING RAPIDLY EWD AND WILL
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT CROSSES OH/TN VALLEY EARLY TONIGHT.
POWERFUL POLAR JET MAX WITH SPEEDS OF 100-110KT AT 500MB AND TO
160KT AT 300MB CURRENTLY CROSSING OK REACHES MID MS VALLEY BY 00Z
AND TO APPALACHIANS 12Z WED.
MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE RAPIDLY RETURNING NEWD INTO LOWER/MID MS
VALLEY AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT AT 15Z EXTENDING FROM ERN IA
TO SWRN OK. THE EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TODAY WILL
ONLY BE LIMITED BY THE ABILITY OF THE AIR MASS TO DESTABILIZE PRIOR
TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AS KINEMATICS AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE
VERY FAVORABLE.
SHEAR PROFILES ALL READY IN PLACE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS IN THE WARM
SECTOR LWR TO MID MS VALLEY AND WITH THE STRONG ASCENT AND MID LEVEL
COOLING SPREADING EWD FROM SRN PLAINS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING
IN THE MOIST AXIS FROM NERN TX NEWD TO WRN TN. INITIALLY STORMS ARE
ELEVATED BUT AS CINH STEADILY ERODES POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL INCREASE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES
SPREADING NEWD ACROSS MS VLY INTO WRN TN VALLEY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOS ALONG WITH WIND DAMAGE.
PRIMARY ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES MID MS VALLEY INTO
LOWER OH VALLEY/TN VALLEY BY MID AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG FORCING
BOTH WITH THE COLD FRONT AND INTENSE S/WV TROUGH SUGGEST THE
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL RAPIDLY BECOME LINEAR. HOWEVER SUPERCELLS ARE
POSSIBLE BOTH JUST AHEAD AND EMBEDDED IN THE LINE THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH TORNADIC POTENTIAL. DAMAGING WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN AS THE RATHER LIMITED AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
DIMINISHES AS THE CONVECTION MOVES EWD THRU THE OH/TN VALLEYS. GIVEN
THE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT EVEN AS THE
CONVECTIVE CONTRIBUTION DECREASES WITH LOSS OF INSTABILITY.
..HALES.. 01/29/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1629Z (11:29AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
Main threat is probably damaging winds (maybe a derecho? although it is not hatched)
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0105
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1054 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...NERN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 291654Z - 291800Z
A SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS
ACROSS NE AR AND SE MO. INITIALLY...WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS STORMS
BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A POWERFUL COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM JUST
NORTHWEST OF COLUMBIA MO EXTENDING SWWD TO NEAR JOPLIN MO. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY SEWD AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE. THIS COMBINED WITH A
DIMINISHING CAPPING INVERSION OVER NRN AR AND SE MO AS SHOWN BY THE
LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SHOULD RESULT IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THE MOST
LIKELY CORRIDOR FOR INITIATION SHOULD BE SOUTHWEST OF ST LOUIS ALONG
THE I-44 CORRIDOR EXTENDING SSWWD INTO NE AR TO AREAS JUST NORTH OF
LITTLE ROCK. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD BE
ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED LINE-SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL. TORNADOES WILL ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE
WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT CELLS AS STORM DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED.
..BROYLES.. 01/29/2008
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...
34899030 34499148 34879219 35739206 36849152 37839079
37948958 37328915 36188955
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1054 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...NERN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 291654Z - 291800Z
A SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS
ACROSS NE AR AND SE MO. INITIALLY...WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS STORMS
BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A POWERFUL COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM JUST
NORTHWEST OF COLUMBIA MO EXTENDING SWWD TO NEAR JOPLIN MO. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY SEWD AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE. THIS COMBINED WITH A
DIMINISHING CAPPING INVERSION OVER NRN AR AND SE MO AS SHOWN BY THE
LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SHOULD RESULT IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THE MOST
LIKELY CORRIDOR FOR INITIATION SHOULD BE SOUTHWEST OF ST LOUIS ALONG
THE I-44 CORRIDOR EXTENDING SSWWD INTO NE AR TO AREAS JUST NORTH OF
LITTLE ROCK. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD BE
ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED LINE-SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL. TORNADOES WILL ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE
WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT CELLS AS STORM DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED.
..BROYLES.. 01/29/2008
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...
34899030 34499148 34879219 35739206 36849152 37839079
37948958 37328915 36188955
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: SPC sees Jan 29th & 31st severe outbreak
First watch, and there are also warnings out:
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 24
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
PARTS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY
PARTS OF EASTERN MISSOURI
PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
PARTS OF WESTERN TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1135 AM UNTIL 700
PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH OF SALEM
ILLINOIS TO 60 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...INTENSE TROUGH AND VERY STRONG JET MAX COUPLED WITH
INCREASING GULF MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS MO AND NWRN
AR. SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES ALONG WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23050.
...HALES
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 24
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
PARTS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY
PARTS OF EASTERN MISSOURI
PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
PARTS OF WESTERN TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1135 AM UNTIL 700
PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH OF SALEM
ILLINOIS TO 60 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...INTENSE TROUGH AND VERY STRONG JET MAX COUPLED WITH
INCREASING GULF MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS MO AND NWRN
AR. SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES ALONG WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23050.
...HALES
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
WOUS64 KWNS 291729
WOU4
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 24
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2008
TORNADO WATCH 24 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
ARC021-023-031-035-037-049-055-063-065-067-075-077-085-093-095-
107-111-117-121-123-135-137-145-147-300100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0024.080129T1735Z-080130T0100Z/
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY CLEBURNE CRAIGHEAD
CRITTENDEN CROSS FULTON
GREENE INDEPENDENCE IZARD
JACKSON LAWRENCE LEE
LONOKE MISSISSIPPI MONROE
PHILLIPS POINSETT PRAIRIE
RANDOLPH SHARP ST. FRANCIS
STONE WHITE WOODRUFF
ILC003-005-013-025-027-033-047-049-051-055-059-061-065-069-077-
079-081-083-087-101-117-119-121-127-133-135-145-151-153-157-159-
163-165-181-185-189-191-193-199-300100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0024.080129T1735Z-080130T0100Z/
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER BOND CALHOUN
CLAY CLINTON CRAWFORD
EDWARDS EFFINGHAM FAYETTE
FRANKLIN GALLATIN GREENE
HAMILTON HARDIN JACKSON
JASPER JEFFERSON JERSEY
JOHNSON LAWRENCE MACOUPIN
MADISON MARION MASSAC
MONROE MONTGOMERY PERRY
POPE PULASKI RANDOLPH
RICHLAND SALINE ST. CLAIR
UNION WABASH WASHINGTON
WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON
KYC007-039-075-083-105-139-145-300100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0024.080129T1735Z-080130T0100Z/
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CARLISLE FULTON
GRAVES HICKMAN LIVINGSTON
MCCRACKEN
MOC017-023-031-035-055-065-069-071-093-099-113-123-133-143-149-
155-157-179-181-183-186-187-189-201-203-207-219-221-223-510-
300100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0024.080129T1735Z-080130T0100Z/
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
CARTER CRAWFORD DENT
DUNKLIN FRANKLIN IRON
JEFFERSON LINCOLN MADISON
MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID OREGON
PEMISCOT PERRY REYNOLDS
RIPLEY SCOTT SHANNON
ST. CHARLES ST. FRANCOIS ST. LOUIS
STE. GENEVIEVE STODDARD WARREN
WASHINGTON WAYNE
MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. LOUIS CITY
MSC033-093-137-143-300100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0024.080129T1735Z-080130T0100Z/
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DESOTO MARSHALL TATE
TUNICA
TNC033-045-047-053-075-095-097-131-157-167-183-300100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0024.080129T1735Z-080130T0100Z/
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CROCKETT DYER FAYETTE
GIBSON HAYWOOD LAKE
LAUDERDALE OBION SHELBY
TIPTON WEAKLEY
ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...LSX...SGF...ILX...LZK...
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 24 TORNADO AR IL KY MO MS TN 291735Z - 300100Z
AXIS..90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
50N SLO/SALEM IL/ - 60ESE LIT/LITTLE ROCK AR/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /23SSW DEC - 49ESE LIT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23050.
LAT...LON 39368729 34368968 34369283 39369065
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 24 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 24
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
PARTS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY
PARTS OF EASTERN MISSOURI
PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
PARTS OF WESTERN TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1135 AM UNTIL 700
PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH OF SALEM
ILLINOIS TO 60 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...INTENSE TROUGH AND VERY STRONG JET MAX COUPLED WITH
INCREASING GULF MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS MO AND NWRN
AR. SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES ALONG WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23050.
...HALES
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 24
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
PARTS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY
PARTS OF EASTERN MISSOURI
PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
PARTS OF WESTERN TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1135 AM UNTIL 700
PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH OF SALEM
ILLINOIS TO 60 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...INTENSE TROUGH AND VERY STRONG JET MAX COUPLED WITH
INCREASING GULF MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS MO AND NWRN
AR. SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES ALONG WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23050.
...HALES
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
WOUS64 KWNS 291729
WOU4
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 24
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2008
TORNADO WATCH 24 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
ARC021-023-031-035-037-049-055-063-065-067-075-077-085-093-095-
107-111-117-121-123-135-137-145-147-300100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0024.080129T1735Z-080130T0100Z/
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY CLEBURNE CRAIGHEAD
CRITTENDEN CROSS FULTON
GREENE INDEPENDENCE IZARD
JACKSON LAWRENCE LEE
LONOKE MISSISSIPPI MONROE
PHILLIPS POINSETT PRAIRIE
RANDOLPH SHARP ST. FRANCIS
STONE WHITE WOODRUFF
ILC003-005-013-025-027-033-047-049-051-055-059-061-065-069-077-
079-081-083-087-101-117-119-121-127-133-135-145-151-153-157-159-
163-165-181-185-189-191-193-199-300100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0024.080129T1735Z-080130T0100Z/
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER BOND CALHOUN
CLAY CLINTON CRAWFORD
EDWARDS EFFINGHAM FAYETTE
FRANKLIN GALLATIN GREENE
HAMILTON HARDIN JACKSON
JASPER JEFFERSON JERSEY
JOHNSON LAWRENCE MACOUPIN
MADISON MARION MASSAC
MONROE MONTGOMERY PERRY
POPE PULASKI RANDOLPH
RICHLAND SALINE ST. CLAIR
UNION WABASH WASHINGTON
WAYNE WHITE WILLIAMSON
KYC007-039-075-083-105-139-145-300100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0024.080129T1735Z-080130T0100Z/
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CARLISLE FULTON
GRAVES HICKMAN LIVINGSTON
MCCRACKEN
MOC017-023-031-035-055-065-069-071-093-099-113-123-133-143-149-
155-157-179-181-183-186-187-189-201-203-207-219-221-223-510-
300100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0024.080129T1735Z-080130T0100Z/
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
CARTER CRAWFORD DENT
DUNKLIN FRANKLIN IRON
JEFFERSON LINCOLN MADISON
MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID OREGON
PEMISCOT PERRY REYNOLDS
RIPLEY SCOTT SHANNON
ST. CHARLES ST. FRANCOIS ST. LOUIS
STE. GENEVIEVE STODDARD WARREN
WASHINGTON WAYNE
MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. LOUIS CITY
MSC033-093-137-143-300100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0024.080129T1735Z-080130T0100Z/
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DESOTO MARSHALL TATE
TUNICA
TNC033-045-047-053-075-095-097-131-157-167-183-300100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0024.080129T1735Z-080130T0100Z/
TN
. TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CROCKETT DYER FAYETTE
GIBSON HAYWOOD LAKE
LAUDERDALE OBION SHELBY
TIPTON WEAKLEY
ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...LSX...SGF...ILX...LZK...
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 24 TORNADO AR IL KY MO MS TN 291735Z - 300100Z
AXIS..90 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
50N SLO/SALEM IL/ - 60ESE LIT/LITTLE ROCK AR/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 80NM E/W /23SSW DEC - 49ESE LIT/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23050.
LAT...LON 39368729 34368968 34369283 39369065
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 24 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
0 likes
-
Ed Mahmoud
Re: SPC sees Jan 29th & 31st severe outbreak
Winds are already shifting West in Houston behind pre-frontal trough, but still looks like something is trying to form on actual cold front.
HOU area satellite loop
Edit to add-
just checked the radar, nothing much yet, it'll probaby pass HOU dry.
HOU area satellite loop
Edit to add-
just checked the radar, nothing much yet, it'll probaby pass HOU dry.
0 likes
-
Ed Mahmoud
Re: SPC sees Jan 29th & 31st severe outbreak
New MD
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0107
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0124 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL IL...NW IND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 291924Z - 292030Z
A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS ACROSS ECNTRL
IL WITH THE THREAT POSSIBLY EXPANDING EWD INTO NW IND BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
CELLS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AXIS OF A WELL-DEFINED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. SEVERAL VORT MAXIMA ARE
INDICATED BY THE RUC OVER ERN IA AND NRN MO AND THESE FEATURES ARE
LIKELY CREATING STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS WRN IL. IN
ADDITION...THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET IS LOCATED
ACROSS ERN MO AND WRN IL AND THIS IS LIKELY CREATING STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. AS THESE FEATURES MOVE ACROSS IL THIS
AFTERNOON...STORM COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND. IN
ADDITION...VERTICAL SHEAR ON REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS IS VERY STRONG
WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 70 TO 90 KT RANGE. IN SPITE OF THE
VERY WEAK INSTABILITY...THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE.
..BROYLES.. 01/29/2008
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0107
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0124 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL IL...NW IND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 291924Z - 292030Z
A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS ACROSS ECNTRL
IL WITH THE THREAT POSSIBLY EXPANDING EWD INTO NW IND BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
CELLS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AXIS OF A WELL-DEFINED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. SEVERAL VORT MAXIMA ARE
INDICATED BY THE RUC OVER ERN IA AND NRN MO AND THESE FEATURES ARE
LIKELY CREATING STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS WRN IL. IN
ADDITION...THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET IS LOCATED
ACROSS ERN MO AND WRN IL AND THIS IS LIKELY CREATING STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. AS THESE FEATURES MOVE ACROSS IL THIS
AFTERNOON...STORM COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND. IN
ADDITION...VERTICAL SHEAR ON REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS IS VERY STRONG
WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 70 TO 90 KT RANGE. IN SPITE OF THE
VERY WEAK INSTABILITY...THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE.
..BROYLES.. 01/29/2008
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...
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