ZCZC 316
WTIO30 FMEE 300640
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/9/20072008
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GULA)
2.A POSITION 2008/01/30 AT 0600 UTC :
15.3S / 60.3E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES
EAST
)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.5 /W 2.5/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 130 SE: 200 SO: 100 NO: 100
50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/01/30 18 UTC: 16.9S/60.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
24H: 2008/01/31 06 UTC: 18.8S/59.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2008/01/31 18 UTC: 21.1S/58.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2008/02/01 06 UTC: 23.5S/56.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
60H: 2008/02/01 18 UTC: 25.5S/55.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
72H: 2008/02/02 06 UTC: 27.7S/56.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0- AND CI=3.5
GULA HAS BEEN RE-ANALIZED ACCORDING TO LAST DATA AT A WEAKER
INTENSITY
(MICRO-WAVE AND QUIKSCAT DATA).
GULA HAS STRONGLY WEAKENED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS (LDUE TO COOLER
SSTSè INDUCED BY THE ALMOST-STATIONARY MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM, AND ALSO TO
A
SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR). THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM
EXPLAINS
THE FACT THAT IT HASN'T RESISTED TO UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS, UNDER THE MAIN STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE EAST.=
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