#3 Postby Coredesat » Sat Jan 26, 2008 4:08 am
It's still listed in the marine bulletin as a tropical disturbance. JTWC, meanwhile, has it as a poor area.
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.2S 179.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 335 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING
ASSOCIATED WITH A WIDESPREAD AREA OF CONVECTION. THE BULK OF
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE APPEARS TO BE CONFLUENT FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES. THE 850 MB VORTICITY
SIGNATURE HAS REMAINED FAIRLY CONSTANT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES DUE
TO A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE DISTURBANCE. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON
THE UNORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
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