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WTXS21 PGTW 251030
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 220 NM RADIUS OF 13.9S 44.7E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 251000Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.9S 44.7E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.9S
45.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.9S 44.7E, APPROXIMATELY 340 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 250409Z SSMI IMAGE INDICATE IMPROVED
CONVECTION OVER A CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC),
WITH A BAND OF CONVECTION WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTH. RECENT ASCAT
IMAGERY DEPICTS UNFLAGGED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS BEING AIDED BY
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT, WHICH IS PROVIDING
EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND THE
EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
261030Z.