TX winter wx thread: Spring-like pattern

[Portastorm]

Temps continue to fall around here this afternoon. Most spots in the Hill Country are now in the 30s to near 40, while the Austin metro area is in the middle 40s.

Also interesting to note that the NWSFO out of Midland/Odessa is putting much of its forecast area under a Winter Storm Watch for Thursday!

[gboudx]

It started out at 34 here, and is now at 31. Hopefully, we are done with rain/drizzle/fog. Some areas reported icy spots on bridges and overpasses around the Metroplex.

[Portastorm]

Hey folks ... I know this hasn't been an "active" winter but WHERE IS EVERYBODY??

{Portastorm, straining to hear above the sound of the crickets}

Ya know, we do have a possible freezing precip threat for portions of north Texas later this week and maybe even down to portions of central Texas!

[TrekkerCC]

Hey folks ... I know this hasn't been an "active" winter but WHERE IS EVERYBODY??

{Portastorm, straining to hear above the sound of the crickets}

Ya know, we do have a possible freezing precip threat for portions of north Texas later this week and maybe even down to portions of central Texas!

I'm here - mostly lurking this winter (and I'm regularly in the #storm2k chatroom </plug off>). Friday could get interesting if a wintry mix developed over North Texas & Central Texas. I get the sense that the forecasters are still uncertain about the next few days, but it appears like anything that develops will be light (which is a good thing).

-TrekkerCC

[gboudx]

Hey folks ... I know this hasn't been an "active" winter but WHERE IS EVERYBODY??

{Portastorm, straining to hear above the sound of the crickets}

Ya know, we do have a possible freezing precip threat for portions of north Texas later this week and maybe even down to portions of central Texas!

I think the silence is because there isn't much threat of this for the Houston area. Most of our busiest posters are from that area. I'm not all that excited about this Friday event anyway. I hate ice and really don't want to drive on it. I hope that if we do get freezing rain that it starts before the morning commute so that I can stay home until it melts off.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

yup, nothing around here, been having trouble getting into the site for the past couple of days. hopefully its been all worked out. temps have been running upper 30s to around 40.

[srainhoutx]

Hey folks ... I know this hasn't been an "active" winter but WHERE IS EVERYBODY??

{Portastorm, straining to hear above the sound of the crickets}

Ya know, we do have a possible freezing precip threat for portions of north Texas later this week and maybe even down to portions of central Texas!

Just watching and waiting to see this Artic Front, Portastorm. Model guidance has been terrible as of late wiith these shallow cold airmasses. Purhaps by this evening we'll have something to talk about.

[wall_cloud]

I truly don't wish to be a hardened critic of my local NWS forecasters as they generally do a fine job. But after reading this, I wish I had a quarter for every time over the last few winters they have underestimated the speed and strength of a winter cold front. I'd be able to buy a cup of coffee for everyone on S2K!

While I'll agree that there is no excuse for underestimating the strength of a cold front in the short term (a la hourly grids), you can't have it both ways in the medium range. There are plenty of discussions here that criticize for the false hope of arctic air and winter precip in cases where the cold fronts were overestimated. Its the nature of forecasting. If it were easy, there wouldn't be forums all over the internet filled with beginners that "could do better". Not singling anyone out here, its simply a broadbrushed observation.

[double D]

Hopefully I get a chance to see at least a few sleet pellets mixed with snow, because it looks like this might be our last shot for a while.

Oh btw, the Austin/San Antonio NWS keeps lowering afternoon highs. Yesterday they had Austin at 51, now they forecasted 44 and San Angelo NWS lowered Mason's afternoon high from 52 to 40 just today, suprised?

[Portastorm]

Hey, nice to see some of you are still out there! I was feeling (sniff, sniff) lonely.

Good points, all. The threat for north Texas doesn't look too intimidating but we have a ways to go. Southeast Texas will only see rain. For us in the Austin metro, seems like we're skimming just above freezing and will stay that way most of the week. Close but no cigar but that's ok as I've said I despise ice storms.

[Portastorm]

I truly don't wish to be a hardened critic of my local NWS forecasters as they generally do a fine job. But after reading this, I wish I had a quarter for every time over the last few winters they have underestimated the speed and strength of a winter cold front. I'd be able to buy a cup of coffee for everyone on S2K!

While I'll agree that there is no excuse for underestimating the strength of a cold front in the short term (a la hourly grids), you can't have it both ways in the medium range. There are plenty of discussions here that criticize for the false hope of arctic air and winter precip in cases where the cold fronts were overestimated. Its the nature of forecasting. If it were easy, there wouldn't be forums all over the internet filled with beginners that "could do better". Not singling anyone out here, its simply a broadbrushed observation.

Your points are well taken, wall_cloud. I know that most of us are no different than the callers who flood sports talk shows on the radio after a college football game. Here in Austin, unless Texas goes undefeated all season, we have many self-proclaimed coaches who call and criticize ol' Mack Brown. They all know better even though they have no experience. I'm sure some of the same occurs in places like Norman, College Station, Lubbock, and so on and so forth.

But that being said, wouldn't you say that the better forecasters are those who don't rely strictly on computer models ... those who understand model bias and factor that into their forecast ... you know, the good ol-fashioned experience factor?

I meant no ill will toward any NWS forecaster by my post, just to be clear. But I really mean it when I say that I see this thing happening every single winter. I guess you're in a Catch-22. The public expects a forecast and exact weather and temps. It wouldn't be realistic for a forecast to be issued saying "we expect a low of 35 degrees but it could go lower because these shallow Arctic airmasses are often difficult to predict."

Enough of my babbling ...

[gboudx]

Winter Storm Watch is issued for Abilene and points SW of DFW. Wonder if we'll see a Freezing Rain Advisory or Winter Storm Watch here? Maybe by the afternoon discussion.

[jasons2k]

from Jeff Lindner earlier this morning - I am finally able to post

Period of cold and damp weather will continue for the next 2-3 days.

Polar air mass is in firm control this morning with overrunning conditions present across the area. Short wave impulse crossed the area between midnight and 600am resulting in widespread showers. Scattered showers will continue off and on today as warm southerly flow upglides over the cold dome at the surface while SW flow aloft ejects impulse across the region aiding in the lifting. Best rain chances are along and S of I-10 where air mass is not as dry.

Secondary surge of very cold polar/arctic air will move through the region tonight. Stronger impulse noted in the models will swing across TX Friday with rains breaking out Thursday evening. This disturbance will be strong enough to force a coastal low off of Brownsville (about the 4th time in a week). Coastal warm front will advance northward Friday likely reaching the coast Friday night. Widespread rains will develop north of the warm front with scattered convective showers south of the boundary.

After much model interrogation this morning for both raw output and GFS forecasted soundings there appears to be a small window for some freezing rain and light icing late Thursday and early Friday across our northern counties. Per output for CLL…GFS has nailed the dewpoints on its 00Z run, but is running about 5 degrees warm with the surface temps. The ETA and NGM are -5 cold and +4 warm with their dewpoints. For the critical period overnight Thursday the NGM has a dewpoint of 24 at 00Z 25 JAN (600pm Thursday) with the ETA showing 20 and the GFS showing 29. Upstream dewpoints in OK are in the 1’s and 10’s with 20’s deep into N TX. As secondary surge arrives lower dewpoints will drop southward. Feel the GFS is slightly to high with its dewpoints while the ETA and NGM are too low. All models keep the surface temp at CLL above freezing with the ETA and NGM both showing 34 for lows and the GFS 37. Given the low dewpoints and expected onset of rains Thursday evening there will be a period of wet bulb cooling as the dry low layers saturate. Per model forecast soundings the layer of cold air is very shallow so the only P-type issue would be freezing rain and that would only be a concern if the surface temp. does in fact fall to 32. For now the chances are fairly low for any icing, but the northern sections of the area are within some concern for Friday AM. More widespread freezing rain and icing appears likely just N of SE TX across the N TX area so travel N on Friday could be troublesome.

With surges of cold air, clouds, and rains temps. will go nearly nowhere for the next 2-3 days. Expect daily ranges of only 5-7 degrees with highs likely holding in the 40’s today and the upper 30’s and lower 40’s on Thursday. Advancement of warm front northward Friday will begin the warming process as cold polar dome is eroded. Temps. should rebound fast with warm frontal passage early Saturday with highs returning to the 70’s and lows in the 60’s. Warm dewpoints spreading across cold nearshore waters may result in thick sea fog by early next week. Noisy SW flow aloft will continue so even though temps. will warm up…the clouds and rain chances will remain.

[wall_cloud]

But that being said, wouldn't you say that the better forecasters are those who don't rely strictly on computer models ... those who understand model bias and factor that into their forecast ... you know, the good ol-fashioned experience factor?

I couldn't agree with you more. I despise the whole, "the GFS says this so I'll run with it" type of forecast. While the job would be much more difficult without guidance, I don't think most people realize just how bad the models are at times. Many mets apparently have short-term memory loss when it comes to how a pattern evolves over time. That said, I can't throw stones. I've followed the model solution when I have low confidence or when I just couldn't disagree with it. Everyone has different modes of thinking so I can't answer for anyone but myself.

I meant no ill will toward any NWS forecaster by my post, just to be clear. But I really mean it when I say that I see this thing happening every single winter. I guess you're in a Catch-22. The public expects a forecast and exact weather and temps. It wouldn't be realistic for a forecast to be issued saying "we expect a low of 35 degrees but it could go lower because these shallow Arctic airmasses are often difficult to predict."

I know you meant nothing personal with your post. Your point is taken on your last sentence, but in reality, the forecast has to be issued using a single number for a certain point. The AFDs generally take the uncertainty into account and will make mention of a hedge or how things may change, but the official forecast requires a decision.

[jasons2k]

...and just like in any profession, some days in the office are better than others...

[serenata09]

Local mets predicted high of 48 today. Sitting at 36.4 in North Austin.

[wall_cloud]

Local mets predicted high of 48 today. Sitting at 36.4 in North Austin.

that's what happens when you don't break out of the fog/low clouds all day. It is in the mid 40s in the San Antonio area.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Just back from Wichita Falls area and I saw freezing drizzle yesterday.


Left little icicles on things, and made it difficult to open the trunk of my car.


So, even if I did have to travel 350 miles from home, I have experienced winter weather for Winter 2007-2008.

[Mattie]

39 degrees and overcast DFW metro (prediction was high 45 @ 3:00 p.m. today) - The meteorologists haven't quite got a grip on the highs and lows in the DFW area either - I'm hoping the drizzle and/or freezing precip doesn't turn into much nasty stuff for Thurs nite/Friday - although a day at home on Friday wouldn't be such a bad thing . . . .

[srainhoutx]

Here you go folks...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
256 PM CST WED JAN 23 2008

...WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOR WESTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS...

.SLEET IS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY EVENING IN
FAR WESTERN ZONES OF NORTH TEXAS...THEN CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AS
PRECIPITATION SPREADS EAST THROUGH MORNING. WINTRY CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
SHERMAN...MESQUITE...WACO...TO TEMPLE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND ENOUGH ICE
ACCUMULATION TO IMPACT TRAVEL IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN FAR
WESTERN ZONES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST.

TXZ091>093-100>104-115>120-129>134-141>145-156>159-240430-
/O.NEW.KFWD.WS.A.0001.080125T0600Z-080125T1800Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-STEPHENS-
PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-ROCKWALL-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-
SOMERVELL-JOHNSON-ELLIS-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE...
SHERMAN...DENISON...GRAHAM...OLNEY...JACKSBORO...DECATUR...
BRIDGEPORT...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...THE COLONY...
PLANO...BRECKENRIDGE...MINERAL WELLS...WEATHERFORD...BRIAR...
FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...DALLAS...ROCKWALL...CISCO...EASTLAND...
RANGER...GORMAN...STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...GRANBURY...
OAK TRAIL SHORES...GLEN ROSE...CLEBURNE...BURLESON...WAXAHACHIE...
ENNIS...MIDLOTHIAN...GLENN HEIGHTS...COMANCHE...DE LEON...
GOLDTHWAITE...HAMILTON...HICO...CLIFTON...MERIDIAN...
VALLEY MILLS...HILLSBORO...LAMPASAS...COPPERAS COVE...
GATESVILLE...KILLEEN...TEMPLE...FORT HOOD...WACO
256 PM CST WED JAN 23 2008
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.

SLEET CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NOON ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
SHERMAN...MESQUITE...WACO...TO TEMPLE.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.

$$


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
304 PM CST WED JAN 23 2008

TXZ094-095-105>107-121>123-135-146>148-160>162-174-175-240500-
FANNIN-LAMAR-HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-HENDERSON-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-FALLS-LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BONHAM...PARIS...GREENVILLE...
COMMERCE...COOPER...SULPHUR SPRINGS...TERRELL...KAUFMAN...
FORNEY...WILLS POINT...CANTON...GRAND SALINE...VAN...EDGEWOOD...
EMORY...POINT...EAST TAWAKONI...ATHENS...GUN BARREL CITY...
CORSICANA...TEAGUE...FAIRFIELD...PALESTINE...MARLIN...MEXIA...
GROESBECK...BUFFALO...CENTERVILLE...JEWETT...OAKWOOD...CAMERON...
ROCKDALE...HEARNE...FRANKLIN...CALVERT
304 PM CST WED JAN 23 2008
...FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING...

A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT.
TEMPERATES FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS. PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARDS FRIDAY
MORNING. FREEZING RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE EAST OF A LINE FROM
SHERMAN...MESQUITE...WACO TO TEMPLE. AT THIS TIME ICE ACCUMULATIONS
FRIDAY MORNING APPEAR TO BE RATHER LIGHT. HOWEVER...LITTLE ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL STILL CAUSE TRAVEL PROBLEMS AS A GLAZE WILL
FORM ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. IF FUTURE DATA SUPPORTS GREATER
ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE A WINTER STORM WATCH...WARNING OR ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/FORTWORTH FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION.

$$

85/HAMPSHIRE

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwat ... 0statement

Be safe out there.