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WTPS21 PGTW 160200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 300 NM RADIUS OF 15.2S 163.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 160100Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 163.3E. THE SYSTEM IS
QUASI-STATIONARY AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING SOUTH WRAPPING INTO THE EASTERN QUADRANT.
A 152103Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWED AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH A STRONG
CONVECTIVE BAND ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO
THE CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS VERY GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG EASTWARD-ORIENTED OUTFLOW
CHANNEL ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LOW NORTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND. OVER-
ALL THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOP-
MENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002
MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO GOOD.3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR
CANCELLED BY 170200Z.