#17 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jan 12, 2008 8:05 am
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 124.5E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 124.2E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTHEAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE MAJORITY
OF CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST. IN ADDITION TO INTERACTION
WITH THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS HINDERING
INTENSIFICATION DESPITE FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA NEAR THE
END OF THE ADVISORY VALID TIME, AT WHICH POINT CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. BECAUSE THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING BACK OVER WARM
OPEN WATER, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
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