NW Pacific ---Tropical Depression 01w
Moderator: S2k Moderators
I've been seeing the models try and develop this system for the last couple days, they have it moving over the Philippines and strengthening in the South China Sea.
00Z CMC: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc ... 00/39.html
00Z GFS: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 00/41.html and http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 00/69.html
00Z UKMO: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm ... 00/16.html and http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm ... 00/73.html
00Z NOGAPS: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NGPT ... sloop.html
00Z CMC: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc ... 00/39.html
00Z GFS: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 00/41.html and http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 00/69.html
00Z UKMO: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm ... 00/16.html and http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm ... 00/73.html
00Z NOGAPS: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NGPT ... sloop.html
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LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 06N 132E WEST SLOWLY.
659
WWPN20 KNES 101519
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W)
B. 10/1430Z
C. 8.2N
D. 132.2E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS...WAVE ON MONSOON TROUGH WITH DISTANT CONVECTION...HOWEVER
FEEL IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BEGIN CLASSIFICATION....LIDDICK
=
659
WWPN20 KNES 101519
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W)
B. 10/1430Z
C. 8.2N
D. 132.2E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS...WAVE ON MONSOON TROUGH WITH DISTANT CONVECTION...HOWEVER
FEEL IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BEGIN CLASSIFICATION....LIDDICK
=
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AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.4N 127.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 545 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN AREA OF STRONG
CONVECTION NEAR A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE LLCC IS EVIDENT IN A 102057Z QUIKSCAT PASS. THE LLCC REMAINS
WEAK AND IS DISPLACED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDER A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT FUELING CONVECTION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
APPROXIMATELY 545 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN AREA OF STRONG
CONVECTION NEAR A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE LLCC IS EVIDENT IN A 102057Z QUIKSCAT PASS. THE LLCC REMAINS
WEAK AND IS DISPLACED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDER A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT FUELING CONVECTION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
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- HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 124.5E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 124.2E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTHEAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE MAJORITY
OF CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST. IN ADDITION TO INTERACTION
WITH THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS HINDERING
INTENSIFICATION DESPITE FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA NEAR THE
END OF THE ADVISORY VALID TIME, AT WHICH POINT CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. BECAUSE THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING BACK OVER WARM
OPEN WATER, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 124.2E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTHEAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE MAJORITY
OF CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST. IN ADDITION TO INTERACTION
WITH THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS HINDERING
INTENSIFICATION DESPITE FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA NEAR THE
END OF THE ADVISORY VALID TIME, AT WHICH POINT CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. BECAUSE THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING BACK OVER WARM
OPEN WATER, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139720
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: NW Pacific --- 90W Invest
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN21 PGTW 121730
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
225 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.3N 121.0E TO 13.6N 114.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 121200Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 120.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-
WARD AT 19 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 131730Z.
//
WTPN21 PGTW 121730
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
225 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.3N 121.0E TO 13.6N 114.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 121200Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 120.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-
WARD AT 19 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 131730Z.
//
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