Models showing storm soon in Atlantic?

[GCANE]

Organization has improved since it moved into the area of diminishing shear. CMC was correct on the shear forecast.

It appears to be mainly an UL Low; but a mid/low-level low appears to be forming:





My read of the models is that it will get hammered by shear if it moves west. It looks like it will spin here for a couple days and then disspate.

[Coredesat]

The area of vorticity associated with the system is quite elongated, as well (sort of like a front), which is another inhibiting factor. There is a closed low at the mid and upper levels, but only a trough at the lower levels.

[KWT]

Well really we aren't expecting anything to form at this time of year. The fact that its found an area of lower shear (relative anyway) is really a sign IMO of La Nina. Anyway yea you can see the mid-level circulation but there is very little convection about the system and it still does look fairly well sheared and elongated.

[cycloneye]

The Latest Image:

[Evil Jeremy]

Very organized this afternoon and it looks like the circulation is spreading to the lower and upper levels. Wouldn't be surprised to get an Invest tag on this thing by tonight or morning. Starting to look subtropical to me.

[HURAKAN]

Looks very non-tropical. I don't think the NHC will make this an invest considering its appearance and the time of the year. Just look at the size of the storm. Nothing tropical or subtropical about it.

[tolakram]

...

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER LOW PRES AREA IN THE CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO
MEANDER OR DRIFT WWD. VISIBLE IMAGES AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST A NEWLY FORMED SFC LOW...ANALYZED 1012 MB NEAR 26N57W.
IR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS TO THE E OF THE SFC LOW FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 51W-55W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE N OF 26N BETWEEN 48W-58W. A WEAK
SFC TROUGH IS SITUATED TO THE S OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW ALONG
58W FROM 13N-18N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MAINLY WITHIN 240 NM E
OF THE AXIS SHEARED BY MID AND UPPER WLYS.

...


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1742.shtml?


also see

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

Is that outflow i see?

[Cyclone1]

Hmm... I don't see this becoming anything, too little convection. But, I'm not counting it out.

[Coredesat]

This is starting to resemble an extratropical low more than anything else, as the convection is beginning to stretch down the front-like surface trough associated with the upper-to-mid-level low.

[Squarethecircle]

That's actually quite true. It especially looks like the ET product of a tropical system. It certainly does resemble a subtropical system in some ways, but there's enough there to conclude it isn't.

[KWT]

Yeah I agree with those that say it looks extra-tropical, theres hardly any decent convection near the center and the feature to the east of it looks likea frontal system to me.

Had it been April/May then it would be far more interesting

[HURAKAN]

Looking a little more interesting but still I don't think it will become anything subtropical or tropical.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI JAN 11 2008

A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 26N58W S TO 20N59W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK RIDGE AXIS TO THE E OF THE
UPPER LOW IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
N OF 22N BETWEEN 46W-59W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE W
TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 58W FROM 13N-18N. MODERATE/STRONG UPPER
WESTERLY FLOW IS SHEARING ANY CONVECTION THAT COULD BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE TROUGH.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 111122
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI JAN 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N53W THROUGH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 26N58W TO 20N62W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK RIDGE AXIS TO THE
E OF THE UPPER LOW IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 23N BETWEEN 46W-60W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS
IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 19N56W TO 13N57W.
MODERATE/STRONG UPPER WESTERLY FLOW IS SHEARING ANY CONVECTION
THAT COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE TROUGH . NEAR ZONAL
WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 40W. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED N OF THE REGION WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE AREA OF THE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH.
so... i don't have much confidence on this to be something once again, but for my eyes seeing that, it's great .

[GCANE]

ASCAT shows a surface-low. Water vapor looks good. Shear is low. Vorticity signature is strengthening. Why isn't this an Invest? BTW - Kudos to CMC.

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satelli ... 26&lon=-58

[Ed Mahmoud]

ASCAT shows a surface-low. Water vapor looks good. Shear is low. Vorticity signature is strengthening. Why isn't this an Invest? BTW - Kudos to CMC.

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satelli ... 26&lon=-58

20 to 30 knots is better than before, but not exactly low. Shear will have to drop a little more if this is to have any chance.

[Chacor]

Why isn't this an Invest?

[Pedro Fernández]

I would like to attach the follow cutting, from the wind-shear map of CIMSS... 20 KT field over the low...



I was wondering if shear will be kept as low as right now...

Waiting for more news in its development..........

[Chacor]

That emoticon is very apt. It's like fishing for something.

Something.... like a needle in a haystack.

People. It's JANUARY 11.

[Coredesat]

The system is very elongated from north to south (check a satellite loop), and convection is at least 2 degrees from the center in a small area far to the north. The circulation is still extremely broad.

[GCANE]

Sure, shear is about 20knots now; but it is dropping and forecasted to continue dropping for at least the next 24 hrs.