Winter Weather in the deep south thread

[Brent]

Are we still expecting snow here in the south somewhere or should the title be changed?

There's a slight chance on the space coast of FL tomorrow morning, but otherwise, no.

FWIW, up in the North GA mountains there was a little accumulating snow last night(and some flurries elsewhere). I have a relative up there. A lot more up in the Smokies.

[jdray]

Current forecast is possible snow flurries in St Johns/Flagler counties in NE Florida between 4-11AM thursday morning.

[jdray]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
321 PM EST WED JAN 2 2008

...COLDEST TEMPERATURES SINCE JANUARY 2003 EXPECTED TONIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...LONG WAVE TROF EXTENDS FROM E CANADA TO THE E GULF
WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL OVER LAND WITH GUSTY NW WINDS AVERAGING 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30 MPH. CLOSED-CELLULAR SC FIELD COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
MOSTLY OFFSHORE OUR COASTAL WATERS. DEW POINTS ARE MOSTLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA.

.SHORT TERM...MAIN FCST PROBLEM IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL BE MIN
TEMPS. MODELS STILL HAVE MIN TEMPS TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
THE MID 20S ACROSS INLAND AREAS. MAV MOS IS THE COLDEST...WITH
SOME MID TEENS OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA. ALTHO THERE WILL
STILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION THRU MOST OF THE
NIGHT...LOWEST TEMPS WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH WINDS DROP OFF
JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. FOR NOW...HAVE USED AN AVERAGE OF ALL 3 MOS
PACKAGES AND OUR PREVIOUS FCST...WHICH ENDS UP NEAR THE NAM MOS.
WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING TO 20 MPH AS FAR W AS LA AND AS FAR NW AS N
MS...SO ANY DECOUPLING WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AND SHOULD NOT DROP TO
CALM. STILL...NEAR RECORD LOWS ARE EXPECTED. WILL ALSO NEED TO ISSUE
ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR PART OF THE NIGHT.

MAX TEMPS ON FRI WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY`S...
BUT WINDS SHOULD BE MUCH LIGHTER AND WIND CHILLS WILL END UP AT
LEAST 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY.

MIN TEMPS FRI MORNING WILL BE ABOUT 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER THAN THU
MORNING OVER INLAND AREAS...SO HAVE ISSUED A HARD FREEZE WATCH FOR
MOST OF INLAND SE GA AND GENERALLY W OF THE ST JOHNS RIVER IN NE
FL. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF
NE FL...WITH NO HEADLINES IN FLAGLER AND ST JOHNS COUNTIES DUE TO
FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY OFF THE ATLC. SHOULD SEE MORE FROST
OVER THE AREA AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES.

REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES...ALTHO SC FIELD DOES BEGIN TO
IMPINGE ON THE FLAGLER COUNTY COAST EARLY THU MORNING...THE LACK
OF LIFT IN THE THIN CLOUD LAYER AND THE DRY AIR SURROUNDING THE
CLOUD LAYER SHOULD PRECLUDE MENTION OVER LAND. SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE S AND SE OF THE AREA...AND HAVE FLURRIES IN THE OFFSHORE
FCST GRAPHICS. STILL DON`T THINK IT IS WORTH MENTIONING IN THE
ZONE OR COASTAL TEXT PRODUCTS SINCE ANYTHING WOULD BE UNMEASURABLE
AND THERE IS MORE SIGNIFICANT WX GOING ON.

Looks like Flurries are a no go, unless a few make it to the beaches.

[HarlequinBoy]

Our high today was only 29.. only subfreezing high of the winter thus far. And very well could be the only one. Right now it's 15.

The warm up begins Friday though.

[JonathanBelles]

looks like people south of the space coast may be getting snow in a little bit.

[Ivanhater]

Oh changed title of thread because this event is over and it was a cold one!..but again GFS is calling for more deep south snow mid January..something to keep an eye on..

[JonathanBelles]

I'll take some more cold. I think a new topic should be made for a new system.

[VoodooCadillac]

I think it should be noted here that this threaded was started 12/21/07 - and now, 2 weeks later, we can verify that the models did a pretty good job from +/- 2 weeks out!

We got our snow here in the mountains. +/- 6" on the Tennessee line, about 2" in Asheville - much as predicted. It was +/- 10 degrees this morning, much as predicted. Cold invaded Florida - in a big way - much as predicted.

So - thumbs up for the models. Lets move on to the next project SE modeled snow event in the 1/12 - 1/14 range and see what happens.

[Ivanhater]

12z out...HEAVY snow for the central gulf coast...enjoy these runs in the south!

[LAwxrgal]

Seriously, if that comes to pass, it would be a major snowstorm for the entire Eastern Seaboard plus the Gulf Coast. Just a nightmarish scenario, just about everything would be shut down...but fun for us snow-starved snowbunnies down on the GC. We haven't seen measurable snowfall since Christmas of 2004.

We know, this far out, that a snowstorm like this would probably NOT come to pass... but after this period of extended warmth that's coming up... it has to be balanced out with cold.

[MGC]

The only thing the GFS missed two weeks out with this artic blast was the moisture it originally forecast. It was dead on with the cold howerver. So, the GFS is forecasting nearly an identical event two weeks out again. We shall see....MGC

[boca]

The next event might be identical for your area, but not South Florida.The high is at 1024mb. The current high from this past event was 1046mb.The situation is simular. Maybe we could get rain out of this one. Low temps will probably be in the 50's at night with this next system.

[Ivanhater]

The only thing the GFS missed two weeks out with this artic blast was the moisture it originally forecast. It was dead on with the cold howerver. So, the GFS is forecasting nearly an identical event two weeks out again. We shall see....MGC

Very true MGC..the thing about this event is the other models have the same storm and set up..the New Euro should be out...let me check on that unless someone else has it off hand...

[jasons2k]

Snow all the way to Veracruz?? Yeah right

[Brent]

LOL! 12z GFS a foot of snow from Jackson, MS to Buffalo, NY.

Yeah, excuse me while I go laugh uncontrollably.

Nice to look at though, and there is some consistency.

[HarlequinBoy]

We made it to 32 today.. two days of freezing or below.

Heh, well to give credit at least the cold came to fruition.. just no snow yet.

[HarlequinBoy]

This has nothing to do with cold/snow but I thought it was special.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
235 PM CST THU JAN 3 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
WITH RETURN FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. ENOUGH OF THE RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN MANLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WINDS WILL LIKELY
HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE NORTHWEST HALF. WHAT THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
IS A NARROW RANGE IN MINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOST PLACES IN THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 20S. A FEW PLACES IN THE NORTHEAST COULD STILL
REACH THE UPPER TEENS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN THE RED RIVER
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. IT IS SHOWN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
IN. IT HAS HIGH AND SOME MIDDLE CLOUDS WITH IT BUT SOME ISOLATED
RAIN SLEET OR SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED. WILL LEAVE PRECIP OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW AS THIS WILL MOVE INTO A DRIER AIR MASS AND ANY
PRECIP WILL HAVE A HARD TIME REACHING THE GROUND. A WARMUP SHOULD
START ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
AS WELL. MAXES SHOULD REACH THE 50S IN MOST AREAS BUT SOME OF THE
NORTHEAST COULD HOLD INTO THE 40S. SOMETIMES...ARCTIC AIR IS SLOW TO
SCOUR OUT OF THE AREA HOWEVER SO IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF IT
DID NOT WARM UP THAT MUCH. TEMPS WILL NOT FALL MUCH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE. GFS SQUEEZES OUT
SOME PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS BUT WILL
LEAVE MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. MOISTURE REMAINS
IN THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLY A WEAK SHORT WAVE
OR TWO MOVING THROUGH. THE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST LOOK VALID
THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS SHOULD SET UP WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING. MINS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S WITH MAXES IN
THE 60S WITH 70S POSSIBLE IF CLOUDS CAN BREAK UP ENOUGH.

THIS IS MY FINAL OFFICIAL WEATHER FORECAST WITH THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE. I AM RETIRING AFTER 33 1/2 YEARS OF SERVICE...ALL AT THIS
OFFICE. THAT WAS 7954 WORK DAYS SPREAD OUT OVER 12 225 DAYS ON THE
CALENDAR. I DID NOT KEEP TRACK OF THE TOTAL NUMBER OF FORECASTS I
ISSUED BUT IT HAD TO HAVE BEEN IN THE THOUSANDS. MY CAREER HAS
SPANNED THE TIME FROM PAPER...HAND ANALYSIS OF MAPS...AND TELETYPES
TO THE AWIPS ERA WHERE ALL INFORMATION CAN BE OBTAINED AT THE SAME
WORKSTATION. IT HAS BEEN A PLEASURE TO SERVE THE PUBLIC AND TO KEEP
THEM SAFE WITH FORECASTS AND WARNINGS. I FEEL VERY BLESSED AND
FORTUNATE TO HAVE SPENT MY CAREER WITH THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT...WITH
NOAA...AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND TO FULFILL MY CHILDHOOD
ASPIRATIONS. MAY ALL THOSE WHO REMAIN CONTINUE TO KEEP UP THE GOOD
WORK AND TRADITION THAT HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE YEARS.

[LAwxrgal]

18Z GFS significantly backs off this idea, instead giving us a possibility of severe weather. If I could find it I'll post it.

[Extremeweatherguy]

18Z GFS significantly backs off this idea, instead giving us a possibility of severe weather. If I could find it I'll post it.

Still looks fairly cold to me, with some snow possible in parts of the south...

[fci]

This has nothing to do with cold/snow but I thought it was special.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
235 PM CST THU JAN 3 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
WITH RETURN FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. ENOUGH OF THE RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN MANLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WINDS WILL LIKELY
HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE NORTHWEST HALF. WHAT THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
IS A NARROW RANGE IN MINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOST PLACES IN THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 20S. A FEW PLACES IN THE NORTHEAST COULD STILL
REACH THE UPPER TEENS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN THE RED RIVER
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. IT IS SHOWN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
IN. IT HAS HIGH AND SOME MIDDLE CLOUDS WITH IT BUT SOME ISOLATED
RAIN SLEET OR SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED. WILL LEAVE PRECIP OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW AS THIS WILL MOVE INTO A DRIER AIR MASS AND ANY
PRECIP WILL HAVE A HARD TIME REACHING THE GROUND. A WARMUP SHOULD
START ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
AS WELL. MAXES SHOULD REACH THE 50S IN MOST AREAS BUT SOME OF THE
NORTHEAST COULD HOLD INTO THE 40S. SOMETIMES...ARCTIC AIR IS SLOW TO
SCOUR OUT OF THE AREA HOWEVER SO IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF IT
DID NOT WARM UP THAT MUCH. TEMPS WILL NOT FALL MUCH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE. GFS SQUEEZES OUT
SOME PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS BUT WILL
LEAVE MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. MOISTURE REMAINS
IN THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLY A WEAK SHORT WAVE
OR TWO MOVING THROUGH. THE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST LOOK VALID
THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS SHOULD SET UP WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING. MINS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S WITH MAXES IN
THE 60S WITH 70S POSSIBLE IF CLOUDS CAN BREAK UP ENOUGH.

THIS IS MY FINAL OFFICIAL WEATHER FORECAST WITH THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE. I AM RETIRING AFTER 33 1/2 YEARS OF SERVICE...ALL AT THIS
OFFICE. THAT WAS 7954 WORK DAYS SPREAD OUT OVER 12 225 DAYS ON THE
CALENDAR. I DID NOT KEEP TRACK OF THE TOTAL NUMBER OF FORECASTS I
ISSUED BUT IT HAD TO HAVE BEEN IN THE THOUSANDS. MY CAREER HAS
SPANNED THE TIME FROM PAPER...HAND ANALYSIS OF MAPS...AND TELETYPES
TO THE AWIPS ERA WHERE ALL INFORMATION CAN BE OBTAINED AT THE SAME
WORKSTATION. IT HAS BEEN A PLEASURE TO SERVE THE PUBLIC AND TO KEEP
THEM SAFE WITH FORECASTS AND WARNINGS. I FEEL VERY BLESSED AND
FORTUNATE TO HAVE SPENT MY CAREER WITH THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT...WITH
NOAA...AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND TO FULFILL MY CHILDHOOD
ASPIRATIONS. MAY ALL THOSE WHO REMAIN CONTINUE TO KEEP UP THE GOOD
WORK AND TRADITION THAT HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE YEARS.

What a terrific way to say goodbye!!
Thanks for posting it.