TX winter wx thread: Spring-like pattern

[jasons2k]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1045 AM CST TUE JAN 1 2008

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE SENT OUT A MORNING UPDATE TO LOWER THIS AFTERNOON`S HIGH TEMPERATURES
A DEGREE OR TWO. NEW MODEL DATA IS TRENDING A COUPLE OF DEGREES COLDER
FOR BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE IMMEDIATE
COAST WILL BE THE ONLY LOCATIONS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING BOTH NIGHTS.
TOMORROW NIGHT STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE COLDER THAN TONIGHT...BUT
THERE IS STILL A QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH CIRRUS WILL BE STREAMING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. MORE ON THIS COLD STUFF IN THE AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION.

[southerngale]

Hard Freeze Warning

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
708 AM CST TUE JAN 1 2008

...VERY COLD AIRMASS TO START THE NEW YEAR...

.A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE GULF
COAST NEW YEARS DAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND THE RESULT WILL LIKELY
BE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THIS WINTER SEASON SO FAR. TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE FREEZING LINE WILL REACH DOWN TOWARD
THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERWAY. MEANWHILE...HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS
WILL BE LIKELY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR WITH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 20S.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE EVEN A LITTLE COLDER. FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY OCCUR ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST...WITH HARD FREEZE
CONDITIONS DIPPING DOWN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AND INTO THE
NORTHERN TIPS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND PARISHES.

LAZ027>033-TXZ180>182-201-012200-
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/O.CON.KLCH.HZ.A.0001.080103T0300Z-080103T1600Z/
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...WOODVILLE...
JASPER...NEWTON...LUMBERTON
708 AM CST TUE JAN 1 2008

...HARD FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
10 AM CST WEDNESDAY...
...HARD FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

A HARD FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
10 AM CST WEDNESDAY. A HARD FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO LAST BETWEEN 8 AND 10
HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 20S WITH HARD
FREEZE CONDITIONS LASTING FROM 2 TO 4 HOURS.

EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM 23 TO 25 DEGREES.
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ON THAT NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO LAST BETWEEN
10 TO 12 HOURS...WITH HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS FROM 4 TO 6 HOURS.

A HARD FREEZE WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN TEMPERATURES OF 27 DEGREES
OR LOWER ARE LIKELY. CARE SHOULD BE TAKEN IF OPERATING SPACE
HEATERS. PETS SHOULD BE SHELTERED FROM THE COLD. EXPOSED WATER
PIPES SHOULD BE WRAPPED. ALL TENDER VEGETATION INCLUDING POTTED
PLANTS AND FRUIT TREES SHOULD BE PROTECTED FROM THE COLD.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST
STATEMENTS AS ANOTHER HARD FREEZE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
BY TOMORROW.

[Extremeweatherguy]

the dewpoints out there are VERY low this afternoon (12F at IAH right now), so we will need to watch the winds tonight very closely. If they die down more than expected, then the forecasted low in the upper 20s to near 30F at IAH could bust big time.

[Stratosphere747]

Not quite the bitter airmass that some thought. The bulk of the energy looked to be going to the east for awhile. Haven't checked the EURO recently but seems to have done well with this event.

Besides the daytime highs already being a good bit off, if the winds stay up enough through the evening and with the possibility of clouds moving in Wednesday night, the lows could be off as well.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Corpus Christi AFD makes some interesting points..

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
230 PM CST TUE JAN 1 2008

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...MAIN ISSUE WILL BE
FREEZING TEMPS TONIGHT AND AGAIN WED NIGHT. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM RESULTING IN LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS S TX. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHTER CLOSE TO THE
COAST WITH WIND SPEEDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS HIGHER THAN INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
CURRENT DEWPOINTS ARE LOWER THAN WHAT THE MODELS HAD PROGD BY AROUND
5 DEGREES...WHICH THE MODELS TEND TO BE TOO HIGH ON DEWPOINTS AND
LOW TEMPS WITH SUCH DRY COLD AIRMASSES...ESPECIALLY THE GFS. THE
LIGHT WINDS AND CLR SKIES AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING BOTH NIGHTS AND AM EXPECTING FREEZING
TEMPS IN THE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA EXCEPT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST
WHERE THE WINDS AND DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER. AM KEEPING THE MIN TEMPS
AND DEWPOINTS BELOW GUIDANCE. FOR MX TEMPS WENT WITH A COMBINATION
OF GUIDANCES.

[Extremeweatherguy]

dewpoints at IAH are now down to 10F. This is much lower than the models had predicted, and this very dry air has me concerned about tonight's lows. Even with some light wind, we may still be able to drop below the current forecast of 30F at IAH, 28F at Hooks and 26F at Conroe. Let's wait and see what the trends look like after sunset, but as of now I definitely would not at all be surprised to see the NWS cut back on the overnight lows in an 8 or 9pm evening update.

BTW - - In other areas with similar dewpoints, the forecast for tonight is a good 2-5 degrees colder than it is here in Houston. Makes you wonder why our area would magically stay warmer while all other places around us would be much colder under similarly dry conditions and the same atmospheric conditions (winds, clouds, etc).

[MiamiensisWx]

dewpoints at IAH are now down to 10F. This is much lower than the models had predicted, and this very dry air has me concerned about tonight's lows. Even with some light wind, we may still be able to drop below the current forecast of 30F at IAH, 28F at Hooks and 26F at Conroe. Let's wait and see what the trends look like after sunset, but as of now I definitely would not at all be surprised to see the NWS cut back on the overnight lows in an 8 or 9pm evening update.

BTW - - In other areas with similar dewpoints, the forecast for tonight is a good 2-5 degrees colder than it is here in Houston. Makes you wonder why our area would magically stay warmer while all other places around us would be much colder under similarly dry conditions and the same atmospheric conditions (winds, clouds, etc).

Urban Heat Island (UHI)
Maritime location (mostly relevant for Galveston)
Local microclimate (?)

The last possibility seems most probable. Do you currently reside in Spring, TX (north of HOU) or the city limits of Houston?

[jasons2k]

NWS numbers for my location are 27-55-27 which seems reasonable to me.

So, we're ready:

[southerngale]

After supper, I'm gonna get a fire going in the fireplace and get my footsies all toasty.


An updated freeze warning issued...

Hard Freeze Warning

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
400 PM CST TUE JAN 1 2008

...TWO MORE NIGHTS OF BITTER COLD TO COME FOR THE REGION...

.A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE GULF
COAST THROUGH THURSDAY...AND THE RESULT WILL LIKELY BE THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THIS WINTER SEASON SO FAR. TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE FREEZING LINE WILL REACH DOWN TOWARD THE
INTRA-COASTAL WATERWAY. MEANWHILE...HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL BE
LIKELY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 20S.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE
EVEN COLDER WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ALL THE WAY TO
THE COAST. HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 10 AND INTO THE NORTHERN TIPS OF THE COASTAL PARISHES
AND COUNTIES....WHILE AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 20S.

LAZ027>033-TXZ180>182-201-021100-
/O.UPG.KLCH.HZ.A.0001.080103T0300Z-080103T1600Z/
/O.NEW.KLCH.HZ.W.0002.080103T0300Z-080103T1600Z/
/O.CON.KLCH.HZ.W.0001.080102T0600Z-080102T1600Z/
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...WOODVILLE...
JASPER...NEWTON...LUMBERTON
400 PM CST TUE JAN 1 2008

...HARD FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
10 AM CST WEDNESDAY...
...HARD FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM CST
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A HARD
FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM
CST THURSDAY. THE HARD FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A
HARD FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
10 AM CST WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FREEZING AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO LAST BETWEEN
8 AND 10 HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 20S WITH
HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS LASTING UP TO 2 HOURS AROUND SUNRISE.

EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM 21 TO 24 DEGREES
EXPECTED. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ON THAT NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
BETWEEN UP TO 12 HOURS...WITH HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS FROM 4 TO 6
HOURS.

A HARD FREEZE WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN TEMPERATURES OF 27 DEGREES
OR LOWER ARE LIKELY. CARE SHOULD BE TAKEN IF OPERATING SPACE
HEATERS. PETS SHOULD BE SHELTERED FROM THE COLD. EXPOSED WATER
PIPES SHOULD BE WRAPPED. ALL TENDER VEGETATION INCLUDING POTTED
PLANTS AND FRUIT TREES SHOULD BE PROTECTED FROM THE COLD.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST
STATEMENTS ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

[Diva]

After supper, I'm gonna get a fire going in the fireplace and get my footsies all toasty.

Me too southerngale....got a fire going in the fireplace as we speak!
My dog is happy since he's getting to spend the night in the garage. He's an outdoor dog so the garage is the Ritz-Carlton for him.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well winds have gotten very light here (almost calm) over the last 15 minutes, and because of this my temperature is suddenly dropping like a rock. Within the last 10-20 minutes I have fallen over 2 degrees (now down to 42F from 44F), and if this trend continues, then with such low dewpoints I don't think there will be a problem pulling off a low in the mid 20s by sunrise here in Spring.

update - - At 7:30pm, the winds are now just about completely calm here. This has allowed by temperature to now reach 40F, and I do not see much end in sight until the temperature gets down to near the dew point (which will likely slowly rise as temperatures continue to fall). So far, everything seems to be pointing toward a sub-27F night in my neck of the woods.

[Extremeweatherguy]

what I don't understand is how IAH is gusting to 23mph at 8pm? I just walked outside, looked at the trees, and they are pretty much standing still here with very little, if any, motion (likely <5mph winds). It is hard to believe that a place so close is so windy while I am nearly calm here.

As of 8pm the winds and temperatures looked like this...

Conroe = 44F (9mph winds)
Hooks = 44F (6mph winds)
IAH = 47F (14mph winds, gusting to 23mph)
Sugar Land = 45F (8mph winds)
Hobby = 49F (13mph winds)
Huntsville = 41F (6pm winds)

My location = 38.8F (<5mph winds)

[Extremeweatherguy]

9pm local temperatures...

Huntsville - 41F
Conroe - 38F
Hooks - 41F
IAH - 45F
Hobby - 48F
Sugar Land - 43F
Galveston - 50F
Brenham - 39F

My thermometer - 36.1F

[southerngale]

It's 38° here right now and a little breezy.

Diva, I'm just now about to get that fire going. The house got a lot colder when we opened the door to bring some firewood in from the patio. My dog lives inside and outside. She definitely expects to come inside on cold or even most chilly nights. She *knocks* on the door if I haven't already let her in and she's ready to come in.

Edit: After I submitted this, my temperature went up to 39° - it's a little breezy outside. Maybe we won't be in the 20's after all.

[southerngale]

What on earth? NWS had Wednesday night's low at 24 - now it's 20. And then Thursday night's low was 33, I believe - now it's 24! Surrounding towns are similar, and then some a tad north of here are a bit warmer. Weird. Beaumont "metro" forecast lows have fallen as well - both nights in the 20's - tonight lower 20's, tomorrow night upper 20's.

Brrrr... it's cold outside!


Today: Sunny, with a high near 47. North wind between 5 and 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 20. Northeast wind around 5 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 49. East wind around 5 mph.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 24. East wind around 5 mph.

[Extremeweatherguy]

At 5:30am, I am sitting at 26F here in Spring. Brrr!

[Extremeweatherguy]

What a weird temperature at IAH this morning! They were down to 33F and are now up to 34F...they didn't even reach freezing last night! However, just a few miles northwest here in NNW Harris county, I am currently sitting at 25.5F, Hooks airport is at 29F and Conroe to my north is at 25F. That is a 5-10 degree difference in temperatures between IAH and areas just to it's northwest. That is a pretty significant difference, IMO.

update - According to the 6 hour data, IAH actually did briefly hit 32F and Hooks briefly hit 28F. The cold spot this morning though is Austin-Bergstrom. They are currently sitting at 19F.

[Diva]

It's currently 28 here with the slightest breeze (2-4 mph).

[Portastorm]

Waking up to 27 degrees here in north Austin. But this is nothing compared to what I felt yesterday morning ... woke up to 18 degrees in Artesia, New Mexico. Dang, that was cold!

(updated as of 10:45 am CDT): It's also interesting to note that the last several runs of the GFS are showing what appears to be a cold and stormy pattern for us starting about the middle of next week. The 6z run was the most extreme. The new 12z run is similar to the 0z run and a little less extreme. Worth checking out if you have not already:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

[jasons2k]

My low this morning was 32F. Nothing unusual....the Oak Ridge weather station a few miles from me & IAH both also registered 32F. I noticed the forecasted low for tonight has been lowered to 24F...we'll see...