Florida Weather

[Cyclone1]

Well... I got no rain.

[dizzyfish]

25 in TAMPA that would be the coldest in 20 years!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I'm about 30 miles north of Tampa. And, yup I remember those 20's from when I lived in Tampa!!

Cyclone1 - I didn't get any rain today either. Only rain I got was yesterday morning - and that was unexpected.

[srainhoutx]

Interesting AFD from Key West this afternoon. Folks on Duval Street will be Freezing

FXUS62 KKEY 312026
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
325 PM EST MON DEC 31 2007

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED TODAY IN THE ISLANDS...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
ROSE INTO THE 80S HELPED BY LIGHT SOUTHEAST BREEZES. CLOUDY SKIES
WERE PRESENT JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY...AND
OUR RADAR DETECTED A FEW STRATIFORM ECHOES ABOUT 100 NM
NORTH...MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
&&

.FORECASTS...
OUR LIGHT SOUTHEAST BREEZES EMANATE FROM A RIDGE AXIS WHICH WE
LOCATE APPROXIMATELY FROM NASSAU TO VARADERO -- THE LOCAL REMNANT OF
THE ATLANTIC HIGH. IT HAS BEEN DISPLACED AND REDUCED BY THE APPROACH
OF A COOL FRONT WHICH RUNS FROM ABOUT TAMPA TO COCOA. THE CLOUDS AND
DIFFUSE RADAR ECHOES LIE ALONG THIS FEATURE. AS THE FLOW ALOFT IS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...FOR NOW THIS FRONT IS NEARLY STATIONARY.
HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG.

NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF A DEEP TROF ALOFT WILL DEVELOP A
STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH IN EAST TEXAS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL BE WELL-POSITIONED TO SEND A BLAST OF COLD AIR INTO
FLORIDA. WE EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH AROUND SUNSET
TUESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWER(S). BUT THE RAIN IS NOT THE
WEATHER.

RATHER THE WIND AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE WEATHER STORY. NORTH WINDS
TO 30 MILES AN HOUR...30 KNOTS AT SEA...WILL REV UP BEHIND THE
FRONT. AS COLD DRY AIR POURS DOWN THE PENINSULA WE WILL SEE LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING IN THE 40S HERE IN THE
ISLANDS. WIND CHILL VALUES MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S ON KEY LARGO.

THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST WEATHER IN THE LAST FEW YEARS IN THE KEYS.
IN 1886 WE SET THE ALL-TIME LOW OF 41 DEGREES IN KEY WEST...AND TIED
IT IN 1981. LOOKING AT THE WEATHER MAPS FOR THOSE TWO EVENTS...WE SEE
THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE AREA IN EAST TEXAS. FORTUNATELY WE LACK A
STRONG NOR`EASTER OFF THE CAROLINAS IN THE PRESENT CASE WHICH
OTHERWISE WOULD ADD A KICK TO THE CAA. THUS WE OUGHT NARROWLY TO
AVOID RECORD COLD.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... KEY&max=51

[dizzyfish]

srainhoutex - that is really cold for the keys!

I'll be moving plants in starting tomorow afternoon - and dang I have a lot to move.

Sounds like the boys are tuning up for later tonight. Hear the firecrackers already!

[MiamiensisWx]

Actually, 22°F is not earth-shattering by Tallahassee standards. Leon County regularly experiences the coldest lows in the state. Lows in the teens or single digits are not particularly unusual for Tallahassee in any winter. I think I recall a low of 8°F or 14°F during January or February 2007 (?) as per NWS data that was displayed in a temperature graphic on TWC. Regardless, it looks like the lows are slowly adjusting upward as per NWS offices in FL. Earlier, the projected low for Tallahassee was 19°F. Typically, GFS operational guidance and MOS tend to overestimate the duration and impact of cold outbreaks in Florida.

Additionally, a warmer low for Tallahassee usually indicates the rest of the state (especially south Florida) will verify warmer than originally expected for this cold outbreak. I have observed this trend with several recent "Arctic blasts" that were overestimated during the last few winters. The NWS Miami AFD appears to have altered its tone for Thursday. Compare the latest paragraph with the older discussion.

Latest discussion (3:16 p.m. EST) - http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDMFL

"DURING THURSDAY THE WINDS ARE FINALLY EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A MORE
EASTERLY DIRECTION AS THE COLD HIGH SHIFTS OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL
BEGIN A MODERATING TREND ACROSS THE AREA, BUT THIS MAY ALSO BRING
IN A FEW SHOWERS TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY."

Previous discussion (9:54 a.m. EST) - http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDMFL&version=1&max=61

"EXTENDED PERIOD...WED THROUGH SUN...WED MORNING TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S NW TO NEAR 50 SE. ACCOMPANIED BY STEADY N WINDS
OF 10 MPH OR SO...WIND CHILLS MAY POSSIBLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S
NW TO THE LOWER 40S SE. MUCH COOLER WED...COMPARED TO THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS OF 2007...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS MAKING IT FEEL WORSE.
CLEARING SKIES...DECREASING WINDS...WILL LEAD TO A VERY COLD THU
MORNING WITH FREEZING TEMPS POSSIBLE IN THE NW INTERIOR. ANOTHER
BELOW 70 DEGREE DAY CWA-WIDE THU BUT LESS WIND. THEN A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A FREEZE OUTLOOK IS
ALREADY OUT FOR GLADES ...HENDRY...EASTERN COLLIER AND W PALM BEACH
COUNTIES. THIS MAY BECOME A FREEZE WATCH EARLY TUE IF MODEL TRENDS
CONTINUE WHICH HAVE BEEN STEADY UNTIL THE LAST 2 MODEL RUNS WITH A
WORSENING TREND INDICATED. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MOST LIKELY ON TAP
TO BE ISSUED TUE FOR QUITE A FEW ZONES."

There's a big difference between "during Thursday" and "then" (after Thursday). It looks like the cold "period" is becoming shorter as the LL ridge builds over the state earlier than expected, thus the dreaded easterly flow returns.

[Extremeweatherguy]

8F in Tallahassee last winter? lol. I don't think so. Numbers that cold are very rare for that region. The all-time record low for December is only 10F, for January it is 6F, and for February it is -2F. Numbers of 10F or below are just about as rare in Tallahassee as upper teens would be in the metro Orlando area or as 20s would be in the Miami metro area. Readings in those ranges happen only a handful of times each century and are very big events when they occur.

As for last winter in particular, I just did a check and the coldest reading Tallahassee recorded was 18F in February. This upcoming event next week looks very comparable to that one for the panhandle region.

[MiamiensisWx]

8F in Tallahassee last winter? lol. I don't think so. Numbers that cold are very rare for that region. The all-time record low for December is only 10F, for January it is 6F, and for February it is -2F. Numbers of 10F or below are just about as rare in Tallahassee as upper teens would be in the metro Orlando area or as 20s would be in the Miami metro area. Readings in those ranges happen only a handful of times each century and are very big events when they occur.

As for last winter in particular, I just did a check and the coldest reading Tallahassee recorded was 18F in February. This upcoming event next week looks very comparable to that one for the panhandle region.

Thanks the correction, but last winter was not too cold (nation-wide) by any stretch of the imagination, especially during January. Although February was below average in the East, the winter was generally near or above average. The fact that Titusville observed 18°F in an average or above average, random Southeast winter is significant. Additionally, lows in the teens are not too unusual for Tallahassee. Keep in mind that we only have reliable "official" data over a relatively short time span, which is very similar to our tropical cyclone records. Older history reveals a much different FL climate in the 1800s. Check this Titusville, FL (Brevard County) site for information on the remarkable "Big Freezes" of 1894-1895.

http://www.nbbd.com/godo/history/NBrevHist/index.html

"Despite the improvements to the town's utilities and transportation systems, Titusville suffered two severe economic set-backs during the mid-1890s. The first was the "Great Freeze" of the winter of 1894-1895. Other severe freezes had been recorded in Florida in 1835 and 1886. But the 1894-1895 freezes effectively brought an end to the citrus industry in North Florida. During the last days of December, 1894, a blast of Arctic air entered Florida and pushed temperatures lower than had been previously recorded. In Titusville the temperature dropped as low as 18 degrees and barely rose above freezing during the next twenty-four hours. Although the Indian River region suffered less than points north, growers nonetheless lost virtually all fruit that had not been harvested.56

Although much fruit was lost, tree damage was relatively slight during the December freeze. The plight of the railroads and shippers was,
Titusville 14

however, even graver than the growers. Hundreds of cars and boats would be left idle for a lack of fruit, and thousands of men, those whose jobs it had been to buy, sell, and haul, or to operate the boats and railroads, were out of work. Nevertheless, there was a certain amount of optimism among those dependent on the citrus industry because tree damage was not severe. In fact, following the freeze, a warming trend began and budding was in evidence in many groves.57

The worst, however, was yet to come. In February, 1895 communities throughout the state experienced record low temperatures. The second freeze destroyed what little fruit that was left. The orange trees, during the few weeks of unseasonably warm weather between the freezes, were budding, blooming, and full of sap. Trees in North Florida were nearly all killed, and even those in the Indian River region were substantially damaged. The freeze caused severe hardship and forced many individuals involved in the citrus industry to seek new occupations. Although a short term disaster, many growers recovered, and the Indian River became the best known citrus producing region in Florida. With the commercial citrus industry in North Florida decimated, many growers from that region moved to the Indian River. By 1900, Brevard had become one of the leading citrus producing counties in Florida. Much of the production and processing was centered around Titusville.58"

The 1894-1895 twin outbreaks (December 1894 and February 1895) set the standard for record FL lows and longevity in its era, although 1899 and others were also very cold for the state and Tallahassee. Note that the following link states temperature records for Tallahassee began in 1885, so our record keeping is very brief in terms of geological time spans. Additionally, even recent temperatures can be incorrect (exaggerated) and present erroneously high or low readings because of improper placement, local microclimates, the growing urban heat island in recent urbanized decades (vs. previous decades with lower populations), etc.

It is interesting to note that Tallahassee recorded 11°F during the February 1895 freeze as per official climate data (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tlh/climate/janfeb.html). The city also recorded 12 degrees F during the December 1894 freeze. Additionally, note that several lows in the teens have been recorded for January and February in recent decades (1951, 1964, 1965, 1970, 1977, 1981, 1982, and 2007). Note that December 1943, 1945, 1961, 1962, 1970, 1973, 1974, 1981, 1983, 1985, and 1989 recorded temperatures in the teens. There were also several close calls in the 20s, which is similar to the January and February records. 20 degrees F (close to teens) was also recorded in 1996. Additionally, your 18 degrees F figure was not the lowest temperature for Tallahassee in early 2007. This chart indicates Tallahassee reached 15 degrees F in January 2007. The record low for Tallahassee was -2 degrees F (!) in 1899.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Hmm. that chart showing a 15F record for January 2007 is odd. It doesn't match up to Tallahassee's monthly weather summary for January 2007 which I found at the following link: http://www.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=tae

Those articles from the 1800s are also very interesting, thanks for sharing! It just goes to show how very cold the last half of the 19th century really was. From 20" snowstorms in Houston to sub-freezing days in Florida, to below zero readings in Tallahassee! A repeat of that kind of weather pattern today would be quite an interesting sight to see.

[flwxwatcher]

Besides the freeze threat, the morning Melbourne AFD mentions the S word

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
546 AM EST TUE JAN 1 2008

.DISCUSSION...

...STRONG COLD FRONT TO BRING COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES MANY LOCATIONS...

...QUICK WARM UP WILL MODERATE TEMPS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND...

TODAY/TONIGHT...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ZONES WILL LINGER THROUGH MID DAY WITH SOME LOWER/MID CLOUDS
LINGERING THROUGH THE LATE MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN ZONES.
THE LEADING EDGE OF AN EXTENSIVE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE
INITIAL SURGE LATER IN THE DAY WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING. MUCH COLDER
AIR WILL BE TRANSPORTED SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSISTING MOST IF NOT ALL NIGHT. WITH THE MUCH
COLDER AIR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA. AM LESS CERTAIN ABOUT POTENTIAL OF ADVECTION FREEZE FOR
EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS TONIGHT AS GUID NO`S HAVE CREPT UP SOME
FROM EARLIER RUNS. WL LEAVE TONIGHTS FREEZE WATCH IN PLACE FOR A
FINAL EVALUATION OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE BY THE DAY CREW.

WED...DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE...STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
ARE ONLY FCST TO REACH THE UPPER 40S ORLANDO NORTHWARD TO THE MID
50S IN MARTIN COUNTY.

WED NIGHT...THE COLDEST TEMPS THIS SEASON AND POSSIBLY THE COLDEST
TEMPS IN 5 YEARS. A LARGE PORTION OF THE FA IS EXPECTED TO
EXPERIENCE FREEZING TEMPERATURES. THE LONGEST DURATIONS OF
SUBFREEZING TEMPS WILL OCCUR OVER LAKE COUNTY AND INTERIOR VOLUSIA
COUNTY OF UP TO 10 HOURS...WITH A HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERAL HOURS BELOW 28F. SO HAVE RAISED A HARD FREEZE WATCH. A
FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AREA.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL NOT FREEZE AS MODELS
SHOW WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEVELOPING A SLIGHT ONSHORE
COMPONENT WHICH COULD SPREAD SOME MARINE STRATOCU ONTO THE COAST.
SO THERE COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT RANGE OF TEMPS BETWEEN I 95 AND
THE BARRIER ISLANDS ESP FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD.

IN ADDITION...BECAUSE THE HIGH CENTER IS FCST TO REMAIN WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA...A N/NW GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PRODUCING 10-15
MPH WINDS. THIS ON TOP OF SUB FREEZING TEMPS SHOULD PRODUCE
BRUTALLY COLD WIND CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS OVER INTERIOR
COUNTIES.

THU...GFS AND NAM-WRF MODELS ARE SPITTING OUT SOME LIGHT QPF
AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST AS ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED. AT THE SAME TIME...850MB TEMPS WILL BE -1C TO -3C. SO
IF ANY PRECIP FALLS FROM THE STRATOCU THU MORNING IT COULD VERY
WELL BE IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG
THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS. NO ACCUMULATION WOULD BE EXPECTED.
WE SAW A VERY SIMILAR SITUATION ON JAN 24 2003 WHEN VERY LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES WERE REPORTED ALONG THE BREVARD COAST.

FRI-MON...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE QUICKLY AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND ONSHORE FLOW DEEPENS. SO FREEZING
TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED FRI MORNING. IN FACT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY SUN AND MON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. MILDER LOWS ALONG THE COAST
DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED

[dizzyfish]

I mentioned the S word to hubby last night as a possibility somewhere in Florida the next couple of days. He looked at me like I had 3 heads.

Gotta make sure he reads that.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The Florida NWS offices are now expecting lows of 18F in Tallahassee, 25F in Tampa (with 22F in northern parts of town), 17F in Ocala, 39F in Miami, and 49F in Key west.

[Cyclone1]

HuuuuuuUUUUUHHHHHHHH???!!!!


Okay, THAT'S cold...

[tropicana]

........ He looked at me like I had 3 heads.

Gotta make sure he reads that.

hahhahahahahahaha i love that saying, thats just so funny.

-justin-

[Extremeweatherguy]

Updated list of the coldest numbers expected during this cold snap...

Tallahassee - 17F
Jacksonville - 22F
Pensacola - 19F
Ocala - 18F
Tampa - 28F
Orlando - 28F
Leesburg - 22F
Fort Myers - 30F
Naples - 30F
Fort Pierce - 32F
Boca Raton - 35F
Miami - 38F
Key West - 49F

[Patrick99]

Somehow I doubt I'll see 38 degree lows east of US 1 here in Miami.

[Cookiely]

I hope they open shelters up for the homeless people with wind chill at 19 for Tampa.

[JonathanBelles]

Im forecasting freezing for the colder parts of St. Pete and 35-36 for the coastal parts. Wind Chills in the low 20's to around 20 at times.

[dizzyfish]

I hope they open shelters up for the homeless people with wind chill at 19 for Tampa.

They opened shelters last night and they will be open again tonight.

[NDG]

Temperatures here in the Orlando area did not fall as much as forecasted to be in the mid 30s, it got down to near 40 only. I am thinking for tonight that it will happen the same, the NWS is forecasting mid to upper 20s, I am saying more like 30 deg instead as the winds at 925mb will start switching to the NE which will start bringing in an onshore winds and maybe even some clouds. The space coast of FL has actually a chance of snow flurries tomorrow morning:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
523 AM EST WED JAN 2 2008


GFS AND NAM-WRF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC
TURNING SLIGHTLY ONSHORE EARLY THU INCREASING THE MOISTURE IN A
VERY NARROW BAND BETWEEN 850-925 MB. VERY COLD TEMPS PROGGED TO BE
-3C TO -5C AT 850 MB AND SFC TEMPS IN THE 30S ALG THE COAST WILL
ALLOW ANY PRECIP FALLING FROM THE MARINE STRATO CU TO BE IN THE
FORM OF SNOW FLURRIES THU MORNING. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH
TO BE ABLE TO INCLUDE SNOW FLURRIES IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR
COASTAL VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES. NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED AND ANY FROZEN PRECIP SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE MORNING
HOURS.

[feederband]

Got to 36 here...Still not 40 yet..Wind chill is 30