TX winter wx thread: Spring-like pattern

[Ed Mahmoud]

Problem with IAH is that one wants to forecast what the atmosphere is capable of producing...mid 20's given good radiational conditions. The problem is that IAH tends to read warm due to urbanization around the temp gage as Conroe reads cold due to cold air drainage into the San Jacinto River valley. For these reasons to make a temp forecast for a point (official) may not always represent what happens 5-10 miles away from that point especially when dealing with light winds, clear skies, and low dewpoints where the urban heat cores really stand out.

With all that said I still think 25-28 along and N of US 59 for Wed. AM with Wharton and Victoria being colder than IAH...even though Spring, The Woodlands, and Cypress may see 26-29 with IAH dropping to 27-30. Conroe will be very much colder likely below 25...maybe down to 23. Everybody else will fall in between except for the beaches where they will stay in the mid to upper 30's. Will also likely only see 30-32 within the 610 Loop where urban heat effect is the strongest.

Base of the orange tree is wrapped in a mulch of leaves from the front yard oak, which again is in the process of losing some, but not all, of its leaves, over a 2 month period that starts around Thanksgiving. Why a tree would lose some, but not all, leaves in winter, I'm not sure.

But a thick mound of extra, unbagged leaves protects the base of the orange tree. Plus, I guess I'll water.


My Mexican Fan Palm trees, besides growing at least a foot a year, laugh at temps in the mid 20sF with no protection whatsoever.

[Extremeweatherguy]

12z GFS MOS is showing 32F at IAH for Wednesday morning and 27F for Thursday morning.

12z ETA MOS shows 29F Wednesday morning and 29F Thursday morning.

12z NGM is showing 24F Wednesday morning at IAH.

[southerngale]

Wind chills in the teens... brrrr. Looks like those on the immediate coast will see their first freeze as well. It's kind of hard to believe they haven't seen a freeze yet when a little north of that, we've seen so many already. Anyway, my central heat stopped working the 2nd time I turned it on this year, just a week or two ago... I guess I should get someone out here to fix it. It's New Year's Eve though. I've been so busy, I didn't even think about it. I have a few of those little portable heaters and they've been working out ok so far.

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
545 AM CST MON DEC 31 2007

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-312200-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
545 AM CST MON DEC 31 2007

...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE NEW YEAR...

A STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA JUST
BEFORE THE CLOCK STRIKES MIDNIGHT ON NEW YEAR`S EVE. IF VENTURING
OUT AND ABOUT, CARRY A WARM JACKET. TAKE CARE THAT FIREWORKS ARE
KEPT AWAY FROM BRUSHY AREAS THAT COULD CATCH FIRE. THE FIRE DANGER
ACTUALLY INCREASES ON NEW YEAR`S DAY AS COLD AND DRY WINDS COMBINE
WITH BONE DRY HUMIDITIES.

A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. SPACE
HEATERS COULD PRESENT A DUAL THREAT OF FIRES AND CARBON MONOXIDE.
COASTAL RESIDENTS WILL LIKELY SEE THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON
FROM SABINE PASS TO MORGAN CITY TUESDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS DOWN TO
THE UPPER TEENS CAN BE EXPECTED TO GREET THOSE HEADING BACK TO
WORK ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY BREEZES RETURN.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATER
UPDATES ON THE COMING COLD WEATHER OUTBREAK.

[southerngale]

Brrrr.....

The lows were 28 for Tuesday night and 27 for Wednesday night.

Tonight: Clear, with a low around 37. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

New Year's Day: Sunny, with a high near 58. North wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Tuesday Night: Clear, with a low around 27. North wind around 5 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 52. North wind between 5 and 15 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 24. Northeast wind around 5 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 53. East wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Hopefully, they won't be off by 4 or 5 degrees too warm, like they often are. I've been cold at night when it's been in the upper 20's and low 30's.

Low to mid 20's... egads!

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think the Houston NWS is staying too warm. For my area they are forecasting 28F Tuesday night and 29F Wednesday night...which is pretty much the same forecast they have for IAH. The problem with this though is that I am NEVER the same temperature as IAH during radiational cooling nights. My lows are usually a good 3-5 degrees colder, so if it is in the upper 20s at IAH, I am almost certain that it will be in the lower to middle 20s here. Conroe's forecast also seems way too warm. They are only calling for temperatures about 2 degrees colder up there than at IAH. lol. That also NEVER happens. Conroe is easily going to be 5+ degrees colder than IAH if we can manage a clear night with calm winds. Hopefully by tomorrow we will have a better idea of what really to expect.

[srainhoutx]

Have to agree EWG..Here were thoughs as of yesterday...

After looking 00z/06z model data and reading early morning AFD's across the state, looks as if forecast temps will be lowered with "possible" freeze all the way to Deep South TX on Wednesday morrning. The only wrinke is again the issue of High/Mid Level clouds for late Wednesday into the overnight hours of early Thursday morning that may keep lower temps in check. Wednesday morning could see lows in the mid to lower 20's in our Northern and Western areas with mid to upper 20's into downtown locales and ideal radiational cooling. Some fine tuning should occur today into tomorrow for the official forecast package as far as temps go. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will struggle to get above 50 with sunshine. Stay Tuned.

Temps For Wednesday Morning (unofficial)

IAH 26

Conroe 22

Hooks 24

Sugarland 27

Galveston 33

Brenham 21

[Diva]

Woo Hoo!! Breaking out the hot chocolate and firewood!!!

[vbhoutex]

Local ocm's have the front in NW Harris County very soon. Temps are dropping at College Sttion and Brenham.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

I would not be surprised to see 20 degrees at conroe airport , we at the lake are at least 10 degrees warmer then conroe airport, we'll this time how cold we get at the lake

[weatherrabbit_tx]

Woo Hoo!! Breaking out the hot chocolate and firewood!!!

I will join diva!!!,anyone else??

[southerngale]

Freeze Watch

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
409 PM CST MON DEC 31 2007

...COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AS
A RESULT...A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE
GULF COAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND RESULT WILL BE MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY THURSDAY MORNING FREEZING TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DIP INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING NORTHOF A LINE FROM VERMILION BAY TO WOODVILLE. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY ONLY TO DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S NORTH OF
A VERMILION BAY TO NEDERLAND LINE.

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-TXZ180>182-201-011200-
/O.NEW.KLCH.FZ.A.0001.080103T0300Z-080103T1600Z/
/O.CON.KLCH.HZ.A.0001.080102T0600Z-080102T1600Z/
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-
HARDIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...ABBEVILLE...
NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...NEWTON...
LUMBERTON
409 PM CST MON DEC 31 2007

...HARD FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. A HARD FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT THE COLDEST AIRMASS THAT
WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY
AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
MIDDLE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ON WEDNESDAY
ONLY TO FALL BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S ON THURSDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR
8 TO 10 HOURS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AND 9 TO
11 HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

A HARD FREEZE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN TEMPERATURES OF 27 DEGREES OR
LOWER ARE FORECAST. CARE SHOULD BE TAKEN IF OPERATING SPACE
HEATERS. PETS SHOULD BE SHELTERED FROM THE COLD. EXPOSED WATER
PIPES SHOULD BE WRAPPED. ALL TENDER VEGETATION INCLUDING POTTED
PLANTS AND FRUIT TREES SHOULD BE PROTECTED FROM THE COLD.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST
STATEMENTS AS FREEZE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY TOMORROW.

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

$$

Freeze Watch

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
409 PM CST MON DEC 31 2007

...COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AS
A RESULT...A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE
GULF COAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND RESULT WILL BE MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY THURSDAY MORNING FREEZING TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DIP INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING NORTH
OF A LINE FROM VERMILION BAY TO WOODVILLE. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY ONLY TO DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S NORTH OF
A VERMILION BAY TO NEDERLAND LINE.

LAZ051-TXZ215-216-011200-
/O.NEW.KLCH.FZ.A.0001.080103T0300Z-080103T1600Z/
CAMERON-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CAMERON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
409 PM CST MON DEC 31 2007

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A HARD
FREEZE WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY EVENING.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT THE COLDEST AIRMASS THAT WE HAVE HAD
SO FAR THIS SEASON. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY AIRMASS THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO UPPER 20S TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 50S ON WEDNESDAY ONLY TO FALL BACK DOWN INTO THE
MIDDLE 20S THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW FREEZING FOR 4 TO 10 HOURS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND 8 TO 10 HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

A HARD FREEZE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN TEMPERATURES OF 27 DEGREES OR
LOWER ARE FORECAST. CARE SHOULD BE TAKEN IF OPERATING SPACE
HEATERS. PETS SHOULD BE SHELTERED FROM THE COLD. EXPOSED WATER
PIPES SHOULD BE WRAPPED. ALL TENDER VEGETATION INCLUDING POTTED
PLANTS AND FRUIT TREES SHOULD BE PROTECTED FROM THE COLD.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST
STATEMENTS AS FREEZE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

$$

[vbhoutex]

Looks like the front has made it here in spring Branch now. Temp has dropped 4 degrees in the last 30 minutes. Now at 68ºF here at the house. My son at Cypress is at 66º as of 5 mins ago.

[Extremeweatherguy]

It's down to 65.1F here and feels much drier. A breezy northwest wind has also kicked up and is likely gusting past 20mph every now and then.

[pwrdog]

Temp near lake livingston down to 46 from a high of 72 with dew point already at 21... Winds only 5 to 9 mph from the nnw...

[jasons2k]

Base of the orange tree is wrapped in a mulch of leaves from the front yard oak, which again is in the process of losing some, but not all, of its leaves, over a 2 month period that starts around Thanksgiving. Why a tree would lose some, but not all, leaves in winter, I'm not sure.

But a thick mound of extra, unbagged leaves protects the base of the orange tree. Plus, I guess I'll water.

My Mexican Fan Palm trees, besides growing at least a foot a year, laugh at temps in the mid 20sF with no protection whatsoever.

I have 4 Majesty Palms that need to be wrapped at 28F or below, so I will wrap the crowns of those tomorrow with a special freeze wrap I bought at Teas Nursury. I have a baby orange that I can throw a sheet over. I'll bring in potted hibiscus to the garage. The rest of my palms (Sago, Mexican Fan, Windmill, Pygmy Date) will be fine, but borderline for the pygmy date. If, for some reason, lower than 25F is forecasted, I will hack my bananas to waist-high and cover with leaves and a sheet.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is the latest from the 00z models...

-The NGM MOS drops IAH down to 27F on Tuesday night and 24F on Wednesday night.

-The ETA MOS drops IAH down to 28F on Tuesday night and 27F on Wednesday night.

-The GFS operational drops IAH down to 31F on Tuesday night and 28F on Wednesday night.

-The GFS MOS drops IAH down to 32F on Tuesday night and 26F on Wednesday night.

...All in all, it is looking like 2 good freezes are on the way, and all the key model sources seem to be in agreement. Wednesday night has the potential to get very cold if the clouds are absent (or thin). Look for significant drops in the NWS forecast lows over the next couple of days (especially for outlying areas) if this colder model trend continues through tomorrow, and even IAH may reach the "hard freeze" range (27 or colder) by Thursday morning.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Down to 51ºF. 11ºC.

Dewpoints in low 20s, but the winds should keep temps above freezing tonight. That, and the fireworks.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Still, 10 days ago I was hoping for snow. A mid 20s freeze isn't all that unusual in Houston, a land separated from Siberia only by blades of grass and barb wire fences.

[richtrav]

While it is going to be pretty chilly, it looks like this will be Florida's freeze. This should come as no surprise since the models have predicted it for days now and the coldest air was farther east in Canada to begin with. I see where NWS is predicting 17 in Gainesville and the mid-20s in Central FL, that's awfully cold for them. If our numbers hold up here in TX we'll be pretty lucky. Good news is that I'm hearing rumors of a major US warmup after we shake this outbreak.

[pwrdog]

Houston NWS has dropped lows to 26 at IAH and 22 near Lake livingston... More like I thought it would be......

Pressure over Colorado near 1060.... Just like forecasted 10 days ago.. I'm glad there is no super cold air sitting over the great plains of Canada...