OLGA'S remnants : Discussions & Images

[wxman57]

Wow! The model plot was just updated! Major jump to the north with these new model runs!

The only models moving it out of the Caribbean are the non-dynamic BAM models. They won't see the changing steering currents in advance of Olga. Don't get too excited looking at them. Wind shear should be steadily increasing. Olga's time is limited.

[Evil Jeremy]

Wow! The model plot was just updated! Major jump to the north with these new model runs!

The only models moving it out of the Caribbean are the non-dynamic BAM models. They won't see the changing steering currents in advance of Olga. Don't get too excited looking at them. Wind shear should be steadily increasing. Olga's time is limited.

The key word there is should. As I said above, I will believe it when I see it.

[Blown Away]

Wow! The model plot was just updated! Major jump to the north with these new model runs!

What updated model plot are you talking about?

[Evil Jeremy]

Wow! The model plot was just updated! Major jump to the north with these new model runs!

What updated model plot are you talking about?

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_17.gif

Also, the XTRP, which is the dotted model on there which shows the speed and direction that Olga is moving in, is now showing a clear WNW movement.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 120023
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0023 UTC WED DEC 12 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLGA (AL172007) 20071212 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071212 0000 071212 1200 071213 0000 071213 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.9N 69.8W 19.3N 73.9W 19.8N 77.7W 19.8N 81.1W
BAMD 18.9N 69.8W 19.5N 71.5W 20.0N 73.2W 20.2N 75.0W
BAMM 18.9N 69.8W 19.1N 73.0W 19.5N 75.8W 19.6N 78.3W
LBAR 18.9N 69.8W 19.3N 72.1W 19.7N 74.3W 20.1N 76.4W
SHIP 50KTS 49KTS 44KTS 36KTS
DSHP 50KTS 41KTS 36KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071214 0000 071215 0000 071216 0000 071217 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.1N 83.7W 20.6N 88.2W 23.4N 88.5W 26.0N 80.7W
BAMD 20.2N 76.7W 19.8N 79.3W 20.0N 81.5W 23.2N 77.7W
BAMM 20.0N 80.6W 20.8N 84.2W 24.0N 84.6W 30.8N 71.1W
LBAR 20.4N 78.3W 20.5N 81.3W 20.4N 82.8W 19.5N 81.9W
SHIP 29KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 21KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.9N LONCUR = 69.8W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 18.3N LONM12 = 67.4W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 18.4N LONM24 = 64.7W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 210NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 150NM

$$

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Officials say towards central america..



So...what are the chances this sneaks up into Southeast
florida ?? I know I'd like that...

[gatorcane]

Given Olga is actually strengthening over land...

I think South Florida should monitor the situation..with models curving her NE at the end of the model run..

Not to panic..just to monitor...

Olga appears to be moving WNW to me...with all the energy displayed well N and E of the center..

[Evil Jeremy]

ah, why can't I panic? panicking is fun! your mean.....

Really though, we need the rain badly.

[gatorcane]

Here is a WV loop showing clearly where the western extent of the Bermuda high is and the approaching trough in the upper Mid west....

iff Olga can just survive another 12 hours on her treck across Haiti things may get interesting as Olga will round the western extent of the Bermuda High

but do notice the hugh ridge across the EC and Eastern GOM and Western Atlantic waters....

Olga has to go west in this scenario.....at least for the next 3-4 days

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Hurricane MAN up in this OHHH
WA ME crank it wa me BLOW
WA ME crank that Hurricane and SuperBlow that Wind
Now Wa me DOOOOOOOOO Crank that Hurricane!!!!!!

Hurricane man up in this OOOO_cean
why we lean and why we blow
Super Wind DAT
Then watch me crank that Storm2k Cop
Super Fresh, that air smells
Chasing on those clouds man

Come right up to FLorida, Olga, Cause Baby
that's how I roll!!!

I'ma throw a huge party just for you after my
finals on friday olgieee!!!!!

It's winter break and I am gonna throw the greatest
party ever for Olga!!!!

[Blown Away]

BTW, 0023 UTC Models initialize at 18.9N/69.8W, which is .1N/.3W from the 8pm update. Still WNW

[gatorcane]

What is the date today folks? Are we in Sept?

[MiamiensisWx]

It's so refreshing to hear the garbage spouted from some members who imply, "The center has relocated much further north!" There are no signs of a reformation. Sfc observations (see wxman57) indicate the center is situated over the Dominican Republic. Although the center could eventually relocate further NW, it is not occurring as of the most recent updates. Additionally, I think one factor that has been overlooked is orographic lifting. The current W movement indicates the LLC may transverse elevations in excess of 2,000 feet. This factor would induce additional heavy rainfall via convection, in addition to diurnal heating. This is a significant threat for those living along low-lying coastal areas (>34 kt winds) and inland (flooding and mudslides).

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

Why are people focusing on FL? These one-liners and unnecessary panic is amusing (or sad).

If it was a threat to FL, we would be well prepared.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

What is the date today folks? Are we in Sept?

With highs 86-90, lows in the 70s, and a tropical storm-- it feels like September!!!!!
Global warming is WILD!

[gatorcane]

It's so refreshing to hear the garbage spouted from some members who imply, "The center has relocated much further north!" There are no signs of a reformation. Sfc observations (see wxman57) indicate the center is situated over the Dominican Republic. Although the center could eventually relocate further NW, it is not occurring as of the most recent updates. Additionally, I think one factor that has been overlooked is orographic lifting. The current W movement indicates the LLC may transverse elevations in excess of 2,000 feet. This factor would induce additional heavy rainfall via convection, in addition to diurnal heating. This is a significant threat for those living along low-lying coastal areas (>34 kt winds) and inland (flooding and mudslides).

Why are people focusing on FL? These one-liners and unnecessary panic is amusing (or sad).

I agree the first concern is Haiti and the DR...I think there will be massive amounts of rain and flooding....but note some models are hinting at a NE curve at the end of whatever is left of Olga...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

It's so refreshing to hear the garbage spouted from some members who imply, "The center has relocated much further north!" There are no signs of a reformation. Sfc observations (see wxman57) indicate the center is situated over the Dominican Republic. Although the center could eventually relocate further NW, it is not occurring as of the most recent updates. Additionally, I think one factor that has been overlooked is orographic lifting. The current W movement indicates the LLC may transverse elevations in excess of 2,000 feet. This factor would induce additional heavy rainfall via convection, in addition to diurnal heating. This is a significant threat for those living along low-lying coastal areas (>34 kt winds) and inland (flooding and mudslides).

Why are people focusing on FL? These one-liners and unnecessary panic is amusing (or sad).

Both florida temperatures and the tropics are like Summer.
Highs 85-90 and lows in the 70s and a strong tropical storm this must be the tropics
expanding or something!


Also I PRAY that the storm MOVES AWAY FROM THE LAND and so that people don't get hurt!!!!

[Blown Away]

It's so refreshing to hear the garbage spouted from some members who imply, "The center has relocated much further north!" There are no signs of a reformation. Sfc observations (see wxman57) indicate the center is situated over the Dominican Republic. Although the center could eventually relocate further NW, it is not occurring as of the most recent updates. Additionally, I think one factor that has been overlooked is orographic lifting. The current W movement indicates the LLC may transverse elevations in excess of 2,000 feet. This factor would induce additional heavy rainfall via convection, in addition to diurnal heating. This is a significant threat for those living along low-lying coastal areas (>34 kt winds) and inland (flooding and mudslides).

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

Why are people focusing on FL? These one-liners and unnecessary panic is amusing (or sad).

If it was a threat to FL, we would be well prepared.

I've just been plotting the updates and each time Olga has moved WNW from the previous update. At 4pm the NHC said Olga would make it to 18.9 in 36 hours, well she did it in 4 hours. Not sure how significant that is, I just find it interesting.

[cycloneye]

Ok to the Florida folks,lets move back to discuss about the storm in a informative manner and not get involved in wobble wars that dont get to any place.This situation can turn very serious in the next couple of days for the Hispanola people and that has to be the focus now.

[MiamiensisWx]

Ok to the Florida folks,lets move back to discuss about the storm in a informative manner and not get involved in wobble wars that dont get to any place.This situation can turn very serious in the next couple of days for the Hispanola people and that has to be the focus now.

Thanks.

I was talking about Hispaniola in my post. Note that I added information regarding the flooding threat. Did you refer to others or me?

[cycloneye]

Ok to the Florida folks,lets move back to discuss about the storm in a informative manner and not get involved in wobble wars that dont get to any place.This situation can turn very serious in the next couple of days for the Hispanola people and that has to be the focus now.

Thanks.

I was talking about Hispaniola in my post. Note that I added information regarding the flooding threat. Did you refer to others or me?

Not you.