OLGA'S remnants : Discussions & Images

[wxman57]

Those numbers dont seem realistic hmmmm...

Earlier today, there were 2-3 ships between the DR and the Bahamas reporting 40-55kt NE winds consistently. Squalls have since diminished over the ships and they're reporting NE at 40 kts as of last hour. Ship reports should always be used with caution, however. You never know how careful the observer is being deriving the actual wind from the wind speed measured on the moving ship. Ships also are notorious for having poorly-calibrated instruments.

[wxman57]

I do know that the term "Subtropical Storm" refers to a storm with subtropical characteristics with sustained winds of 39 mph or greater. Even if it has 150 mph winds (a bit extreme, I know), it's still a Subtropical Storm if it lacks enough tropical characteristics. The "tropical" in the title doesn't imply wind speed. Only if the system gains tropical characteristics and has winds or 64kts/74 mph or greater would it get the title "Hurricane".

As to the question about watches/warnings, a subtropical storm with winds of hurricane force or greater would require a hurricane watch to be issued, meaning that an area could experience hurricane-force winds. The "hurricane" part of the watch/warning is not related to the characteristics of the storm (tropical or subtropical), only the winds expected.

[Squarethecircle]

60 in SFMR...and no flags for it either!

Given the flight-level winds, I'd say 55 kt at this point is the correct intensity. But if we get higher winds, maybe we have a hurricane?

You mean hurricane strength subtropical storm?

(referring to 60 knot reading) Wow, that's a lot higher than it looks...

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 112318
AF303 0117A OLGA HDOB 44 20071211
230630 1807N 06803W 9776 00299 0117 +230 +168 139034 034 036 002 00
230700 1808N 06801W 9776 00300 0123 +188 +158 141033 034 048 011 00
230730 1808N 06800W 9767 00308 0121 +200 +174 149029 029 041 014 00
230800 1809N 06758W 9775 00302 0120 +215 +181 155028 029 029 008 00
230830 1809N 06757W 9774 00302 0118 +219 +202 150028 029 049 000 00
230900 1810N 06755W 9774 00302 0117 +222 +191 148026 028 026 004 00
230930 1811N 06754W 9772 00303 0118 +224 +193 152023 024 027 002 00
231000 1811N 06752W 9770 00306 0118 +228 +205 154024 026 024 001 00
231030 1812N 06751W 9774 00303 0118 +231 +207 157027 027 026 000 00
231100 1812N 06750W 9778 00299 0117 +234 +194 154026 027 026 000 00
231130 1813N 06748W 9771 00306 0117 +234 +191 152028 028 029 000 00
231200 1814N 06747W 9772 00304 0118 +234 +205 151028 029 030 001 00
231230 1814N 06745W 9772 00305 0119 +232 +203 141027 028 031 011 00
231300 1815N 06744W 9775 00302 0118 +231 +181 139027 028 032 002 00
231330 1815N 06742W 9772 00306 0119 +232 +188 139027 028 031 000 00
231400 1816N 06741W 9772 00305 0120 +233 +193 141029 030 031 000 03
231430 1816N 06740W 9777 00303 0121 +234 +190 138027 029 999 999 03
231500 1816N 06738W 9768 00310 0120 +232 +199 136025 026 028 002 03
231530 1816N 06737W 9772 00307 0121 +230 +223 133023 025 026 001 03
231600 1817N 06736W 9747 00329 0121 +227 +219 133025 025 028 000 03
$$
;

[JonathanBelles]

Maybe I'm a bit slow, but CIMSS has 3-D views of Olga available.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 112328
AF303 0117A OLGA HDOB 45 20071211
231630 1818N 06735W 9506 00540 0116 +212 +192 140030 032 999 999 03
231700 1819N 06733W 9208 00829 0128 +192 +181 144033 034 999 999 03
231730 1820N 06732W 8942 01086 0137 +181 +153 143034 035 024 000 03
231800 1821N 06731W 8909 01130 0147 +176 +157 141034 034 023 000 00
231830 1821N 06729W 8803 01219 0136 +170 +134 140034 034 023 000 03
231900 1822N 06728W 8450 01573 0135 +152 +114 143035 036 999 999 03
231930 1822N 06726W 8049 01987 0137 +129 +087 141032 033 999 999 03
232000 1821N 06725W 7676 02384 0137 +107 +034 143031 031 999 999 03
232030 1821N 06723W 7330 02773 0134 +089 +044 146028 029 999 999 03
232100 1821N 06721W 7003 03152 0142 +063 +048 143027 029 999 999 03
232130 1820N 06720W 6706 03521 0144 +047 +024 148027 027 999 999 03
232200 1820N 06718W 6421 03873 0144 +027 -052 153026 027 999 999 03
232230 1819N 06717W 6169 04198 0147 +006 -071 158025 025 999 999 03
232300 1819N 06715W 5949 04447 0105 -006 -109 171026 026 999 999 03
232330 1819N 06713W 5745 04688 0007 -023 -103 179028 030 999 999 03
232400 1818N 06711W 5698 04557 9929 -029 -106 178030 030 999 999 03
232430 1818N 06709W 5711 04732 0053 -031 -185 174031 032 999 999 03
232500 1818N 06706W 5714 04695 9957 -034 -125 175029 030 999 999 03
232530 1817N 06704W 5717 04723 0000 -030 -064 172029 029 999 999 03
232600 1816N 06702W 5715 04543 9856 -030 -066 173028 029 999 999 03
$$
;

Mission over.

[CrazyC83]

Next advisory is in 30 minutes. I think a significant increase in its intensity is coming...I'd put it at 55 kt - a blend of the 60 kt SFMR and the 49 kt that FL winds support.

[HenkL]

Yep, it's done.

URNT11 KNHC 112314
97779 23100 30181 6780/ 03000 16027 23/// /0012
RMK AF303 0117A OLGA OB 24
SWS = 026KTS
LAST REPORT

[brunota2003]

They'll be conservative most likely...guessing 45 knots, could be a "spot wind" that is not representative of circulation as a whole.

[CrazyC83]

They'll be conservative most likely...guessing 45 knots, could be a "spot wind" that is not representative of circulation as a whole.

That's possible, but there were many reports of winds supporting at least 50 kt. The 60 kt does get validated a bit by a 59 kt report, but I think 55 kt is most correct.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I think an average of 60 and 49 at about 55 kt sounds reasonable
so that's 65 mph. But perhaps they will be somewhat conservative
and go with 55 mph or 60 mph possibly.

Personally I'd go with 55 kt = 65 mph because that is the average of 60 kt
and 49 kt.

[P.K.]

Advisory is just out:

WTNT32 KNHC 112334
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OLGA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172007
800 PM AST TUE DEC 11 2007

...HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS OLGA A LITTLE STRONGER WITH TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS...

[Squarethecircle]

I'd bet that the storm is 55 knots, and the NHC will say 50.

[brunota2003]

They'll be conservative most likely...guessing 45 knots, could be a "spot wind" that is not representative of circulation as a whole.

That's possible, but there were many reports of winds supporting at least 50 kt. The 60 kt does get validated a bit by a 59 kt report, but I think 55 kt is most correct.

Eh, we'll see. Tonights discussion will be interesting, though.

[CrazyC83]

It's now Tropical Storm Olga...a bit surprised personally...

[RL3AO]

Wow. I haven't been following this too much today. Getting a little close to the "h" word. obviously it should weaken here soon.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This is pretty insane, we are watching every move of a
system in DECEMBER

Reminds me of the record of the 1925 storm they have
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at19252.asp
Hit Florida as a category 2 hurricane in DECEMBER

But I do NOT think Olga will take that path!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I still feel like it's late september...

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.
COPEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT ON THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC JUST MEASURED WIND GUSTS TO 63 MPH...102 KM/HR.

[Squarethecircle]

Ok, this started to get insane right about four minutes ago.

Oh, and it's back over water as of something like thirty minutes ago, too.

[Cyclone1]

This is pretty insane, we are watching every move of a
system in DECEMBER

Reminds me of the record of the 1925 storm they have
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at19252.asp
Hit Florida as a category 2 hurricane in DECEMBER

But I do NOT think Olga will take that path!

Actually, it hit Florida as a tropical storm in November, becoming a category two over the gulf stream in December.