OLGA'S remnants : Discussions & Images

[brunota2003]

Where exactly does it say that the flight was not supposed to happen? If the flight was really canceled, it would of said so in today's plan, which it did not. I already said this in the Recon thread.

NOTE: TROPICAL CYCLONE REQUIREMENTS.....NEGATIVE

That was for tomorrow and beyond. Todays plan states there is indeed a flight going out into the system.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Too see this thing even sustain its self in Mid DEC where it currently is, is impressive in its self..

[gatorcane]

my estimates shows a mean movement of 300 over the past 4 hours...
center appears to be just north of the DR moving WNW

[brunota2003]

wxman57,what is your take about they deciding to fly?

Why wouldnt they go? It is clearly stated on Today's plan that a Recon flight would fly, resources permitting of course, and there was no notification on the plan issued today of the NHC canceling todays tasking. This system is a subtropical storm, impacting a country...provided they can go, they will more often than not. Starting TOMORROW, Recon tasking is a NEGATIVE, however.

[Blown Away]

my estimates shows a mean movement of 300 over the past 4 hours...
center appears to be just north of the DR moving WNW

Are you sure, seems the center has moved inland down the middle of DR. No doubt Olga is moving WNW, but I'm not sure about her being off the N coast of DR.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[cycloneye]

000
URNT11 KNHC 112023
97779 20160 30220 71200 03000 07036 22//8 /0015
40630
RMK AF303 0117A OLGA OB 12
SWS = 030KTS
;

[gatorcane]

I'm pretty sure...the center is filling in with convection just north of DR -- a sign it continues to try and get better organized...

Look carefully here and you can see how the center just skirts the NE tip of DR moving WNW.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Evil Jeremy]

I agree with gatorcane with the position and movement. Also, the outer band is starting to affect the Southern Bahamas.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 112028
AF303 0117A OLGA HDOB 27 20071211
201630 2201N 07113W 9772 00331 0150 +222 +222 063034 038 031 003 00
201700 2201N 07112W 9767 00334 0149 +221 +221 066036 037 036 000 00
201730 2201N 07111W 9775 00326 0149 +220 +220 065038 039 035 000 00
201800 2201N 07109W 9768 00334 0148 +220 +220 064037 038 035 000 00
201830 2201N 07108W 9772 00329 0148 +221 +221 065035 036 034 000 00
201900 2202N 07106W 9769 00332 0148 +220 +220 066034 035 035 000 00
201930 2202N 07105W 9771 00330 0148 +221 +214 066033 035 033 000 00
202000 2202N 07104W 9768 00333 0148 +222 +214 065032 034 033 000 00
202030 2202N 07102W 9768 00333 0148 +224 +214 066034 035 037 000 00
202100 2202N 07101W 9771 00331 0148 +225 +224 067034 035 038 000 00
202130 2202N 07100W 9772 00332 0149 +221 +221 067036 041 039 004 00
202200 2202N 07058W 9769 00333 0149 +220 +219 071039 040 039 000 00
202230 2202N 07057W 9772 00329 0149 +211 +211 076039 040 041 000 00
202300 2202N 07056W 9770 00332 0151 +202 +202 088036 037 036 003 00
202330 2202N 07054W 9767 00333 0150 +207 +204 094036 037 036 000 00
202400 2202N 07053W 9767 00333 0148 +217 +177 093036 037 033 001 00
202430 2202N 07052W 9771 00330 0148 +218 +168 095037 037 034 000 00
202500 2202N 07050W 9769 00329 0148 +210 +181 091034 035 034 000 00
202530 2202N 07049W 9771 00329 0148 +209 +182 090035 035 035 000 00
202600 2202N 07048W 9770 00330 0147 +209 +183 093035 036 033 000 00

They are now flying at operational altitud.

[brunota2003]

Well, we'll find out how good Olga is and where exactly* the center is within the next couple hours or so...

* Provided it is over water, if it is over land, though, then we wont know exactly where, but pretty darn close.

[gatorcane]

I agree with gatorcane with the position and movement. Also, the outer band is starting to affect the Southern Bahamas.

Indeed if this thing continues to move WNW (it *should* bend back to the west soon)...then the forecast reasoning is going to change....

I agree the SE Bahamas may get some TS gusts out of this...

[brunota2003]

From 4 pm advisory, movement WEST:

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA WAS
LOCATED INLAND OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR LATITUDE 18.5
NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.8 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES...115 KM...EAST OF
SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...18.5 N...68.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

[brunota2003]

SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172007
500 PM AST TUE DEC 11 2007

...CENTER OF OLGA INLAND OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
OF HISPANIOLA FROM CABO ENGANO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO LE MOLE
ST. NICHOLAS HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO PUNTA PALENQUE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA WAS
LOCATED INLAND OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR LATITUDE 18.5
NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.8 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES...115 KM...EAST OF
SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

OLGA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
CENTER OF OLGA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER LAND FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 MILES...390 KM...MAINLY TO
THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

OLGA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES IN PUERTO
RICO AND HISPANIOLA.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...18.5 N...68.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[brunota2003]

WTNT42 KNHC 112033
TCDAT2
SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172007
400 PM EST TUE DEC 11 2007

AN ASCAT PASS FROM LATE THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THAT THE WINDS TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER MAY HAVE DECREASED A LITTLE...BUT A
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL REACH THE AREA SHORTLY...AND I WOULD
PREFER TO WAIT FOR THEIR REPORTS BEFORE ADJUSTING THE ESTIMATED
INTENSITY. GRAND TURK ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF
31 KT. THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THE ASCAT DATA ALSO
SUGGEST THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS MAY BE DECREASING. IF
THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE AIRCRAFT...OLGA COULD BE CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS EVENING.

THE CENTER OF OLGA MADE LANDFALL IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF PUNTA CANA AROUND 18Z. THE MOTION OF THE CENTER HAS
BEEN ERRATIC...BUT OVERALL IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/11. THERE HAS
BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING...WHICH CALLS FOR OLGA
TO BE STEERED BASICALLY WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AFTER 48 HOURS...OLGA
WILL BE ROUNDING THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE...BUT THERE IS LIKELY
TO BE LITTLE LEFT OF THE CYCLONE BY THEN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT WESTERLY SHEAR IS BEGINNING TO
INCREASE OVER THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE WILL
WEAKEN...ALLOWING THE SHEAR TO INCREASE. THIS...COUPLED WITH THE
INTERACTION OF THE CENTER WITH HISPANIOLA...SHOULD RESULT IN A
DECAY OF THE SYSTEM. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LIKELY TO
PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF THE DECAYING CYCLONE...HOWEVER...AND WINDS
THERE WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM OLGA IS HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH IS
ALREADY PRODUCING LIFE-THREATENING MUD SLIDES IN PUERTO RICO.
THESE RAINS WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS HISPANIOLA TONIGHT...WHERE
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ARE ALSO LIKELY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/2100Z 18.5N 68.8W 40 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 12/0600Z 18.5N 71.4W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 12/1800Z 18.6N 74.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT 13/0600Z 18.9N 77.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 13/1800Z 19.2N 80.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 14/1800Z 19.5N 83.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

I forgot that they put in those plans of the day the word canceled but It was not there today so my fault.

[Chacor]

Not only that - the adv says the centre is expected to remain over land for 'much of' the next day or so.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 112038
AF303 0117A OLGA HDOB 28 20071211
202630 2202N 07046W 9771 00328 0147 +210 +181 091035 037 038 000 00
202700 2202N 07045W 9769 00331 0148 +210 +185 093035 037 039 000 00
202730 2202N 07044W 9772 00329 0148 +214 +185 091036 038 035 000 00
202800 2202N 07042W 9772 00330 0148 +215 +186 090038 040 034 000 00
202830 2202N 07041W 9772 00328 0147 +224 +182 091042 43 034 000 00
202900 2202N 07040W 9768 00332 0146 +227 +175 091038 040 033 000 00
202930 2202N 07039W 9770 00330 0146 +226 +185 088035 036 033 001 00
203000 2202N 07037W 9768 00332 0146 +227 +183 085033 034 034 000 00
203030 2202N 07036W 9771 00330 0147 +221 +189 081035 036 034 000 00
203100 2202N 07034W 9768 00333 0148 +220 +194 079035 036 033 000 00
203130 2201N 07033W 9771 00329 0147 +222 +194 077034 035 034 000 00
203200 2201N 07032W 9770 00332 0147 +222 +191 075032 033 034 000 00
203230 2202N 07030W 9772 00329 0147 +220 +192 071031 032 031 001 00
203300 2201N 07029W 9767 00333 0148 +219 +191 070030 031 032 000 00
203330 2201N 07028W 9770 00330 0147 +219 +191 068029 030 032 000 00
203400 2201N 07026W 9768 00330 0145 +220 +200 065028 029 031 000 00
203430 2201N 07025W 9771 00326 0143 +220 +192 062026 027 029 000 00
203500 2201N 07023W 9770 00326 0143 +219 +187 065026 027 028 000 00
203530 2201N 07022W 9768 00329 0144 +218 +193 070027 027 029 000 00
203600 2201N 07021W 9771 00327 0145 +217 +204 067026 027 028 000 00
$$

[cycloneye]

AN ASCAT PASS FROM LATE THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THAT THE WINDS TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER MAY HAVE DECREASED A LITTLE...BUT A
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL REACH THE AREA SHORTLY...AND I WOULD
PREFER TO WAIT FOR THEIR REPORTS BEFORE ADJUSTING THE ESTIMATED
INTENSITY. GRAND TURK ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF
31 KT. THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THE ASCAT DATA ALSO
SUGGEST THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS MAY BE DECREASING. IF
THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE AIRCRAFT...OLGA COULD BE CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS EVENING.

Lets see if they find Olga as a pure tropical system.

[gatorcane]

I have to disagree it does look like Olga is slowly gaining lattitude already.....

[Evil Jeremy]

The latest forecast does not even acknowledge the recent WNW movement.