TX winter wx thread: Spring-like pattern

[jasons2k]

From Jeff Lindner:

Arctic boundary appears to have stalled along a line from Liberty to Pasadena to N of Pearland to Bay City to Rockport. N of this boundary temps range from 45 at CLL to 53 at Conroe to 57 at IAH…then jump across the front and Pearland is 72 and League City is 74.

SPC meso analysis shows the front has not moved much since the sun rose and should remained stalled along the above mentioned line through much of the afternoon hours. Dense fog is rapidly developing N of the boundary with visibilities tanking at Wharton, Conroe, and College Station…averaging 1/4th to ½ of a mile while dense sea fog continues to plague the bays and coastal locations out to about 30 miles offshore with Galveston and much of the coast at or below ½ of a mile.

General consensus and the fact that the front has stalled out finally suggest that it will begin to return as a warm front late this afternoon and locations that are now cold will warm overnight. Will see temps slowly rise into the 60’s overnight and into the 70’s on Tuesday as the arctic dome which is only about 900 ft thick is eroded from the south.

Additionally, given such shallow nature of this air mass there is plenty of instability above the surface for showers and thunderstorms…so rain chances may need to be bumped up some for tonight.

Very warm afternoon is possible on Tuesday and early Wed before arctic boundary is shoved back across the area midday Wed and temps. tank once again. Will see highs early with temps dropping well into the 40’s Wed afternoon.

[CaptinCrunch]

FYI, FTW NWS has our forcast high for tuesday at 68 with 70% rain chance, how ever a second shot of colder air with shove temps back into the upper 40's for highs on wednesday. Question is will we really warm up that much, as I dont see the retreating cold front working this far north over the next 24 hrs, I think it may make it as far north as just this side of Waco, before stalling out again.

(UPDATED as of 1pm) Our current temp is 39 with fog/mist, and yes our temps will once again remain in the upper 30's to near 40 for high's today.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1037 AM CST MON DEC 10 2007

.UPDATE...
MOST PRECIP REMAINS JUST NW OF THE AREA...WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
FALLING OVER THE SE. HAVE REDUCED POPS DRAMATICALLY AS LIFTING
MECHANISMS APPEAR TAPPED OUT FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. ALSO REMOVED
MENTION OF FZRA AS NEW SOUNDING SHOWS A HUGE WARM NOSE AND A VERY
SHALLOW COLD LAYER AT THE SURFACE. IF SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP DID
FALL...THIS WARMER AIR ALOFT WOULD BE DRAGGED DOWN. GFS IS NOT
RESOLVING THE SHALLOW COLD LAYER WELL...AND HAVE LOWERED HIGH
TEMPS TODAY WELL BELOW GUIDANCE. AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AROUND 22-00Z...WARM ADVECTION WILL HELP THE
SE REACH THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. EXPECT MOST OTHER AREAS WILL
HAVE THEIR HIGHEST TEMPS RIGHT AROUND 00Z

[vbhoutex]

The front came through the Galleria area early this morning and as we were heading out to lunch the temps started going back up and are now at 71º. It was 58º just before lunch. A steady drizzle has started also. Gonna be an interesting week to say the least.

[Yankeegirl]

What a bust, the high today was 60 and its 71 and sunny out here now!!

[jasons2k]

Yeah, I just went outside and it's warm & muggy again here on Post Oak. Tropical puffy cumulus clouds and gulf showers streaming north...

[Yankeegirl]

I really need some winter weather soon... I am in no mood for Christmas!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Yeah, this front retreated much more quickly than first thought. However, we still have Wednesday to look forward too (the return of the front), and then beyond that, we have a beautiful, chilly weekend ahead. The NWS is forecasting upper 50s to near 60˚ on both Saturday and Sunday under mostly sunny skies and the models are even hinting at a frost or freeze by Sunday morning.

Update: I just wanted to add that the 18z GFS now shows a low of 31.6F at IAH in Houston on Sunday morning followed by another below freezing low on Monday morning.

[wall_cloud]

What a bust, the high today was 60 and its 71 and sunny out here now!!

please deomonstrate your skills at forecasting. Its easy to criticize with hindsight. Its tough to stick your neck out there. Shallow arctic (modified arctic) airmasses are among the most difficult to figure out.

[jasons2k]

Interesting - driving home - when I got on the Hardy @ 610 it was 77F.

When I pulled into the neighborhood it was 69F & foggy (obviously behind the front)....drove to the back of the neighborhood (north) to get my son and it dropped-down to 67F....drove back to the front of the neighborhood (south) and it went back up to 69F. Looks like the warm front is moving through now here in South Montgomery....

[Ed Mahmoud]

What a bust, the high today was 60 and its 71 and sunny out here now!!

please deomonstrate your skills at forecasting. Its easy to criticize with hindsight. Its tough to stick your neck out there. Shallow arctic (modified arctic) airmasses are among the most difficult to figure out.

How touchy.

Anyway, IIRC, the morning HGX AFD mentioned 20ºF bust potential within Harris County based on frontal position.

Well, looks like we had about 8 hours of the very shallow polar airmass.

About 4 years ago, when DFW had a semi-massive ice storm, at my office in the Houston Galleria temps were in the 40s with a howling North wind, and the low clouds, not much above, if I had to guess, the top of the Transco Tower, were racing from South to North. Talk about a shallow airmass that time.

[Dionne]

These warm temps have me concerned. I don't know squat about forecasting. But I do know that 80F in December here in SW Mississippi with a front coming our way means we're in for some strong storms.

[CaptinCrunch]

Well to say the least, it's a very muggy 61 out side here in FTW, run into a few heavy showers on way in to work. Warm front setting right on top of me and not sure which way it will go from here.

PREV DISCUSSION...
406 AM CST.
A VERY BUSY WEATHER WEEK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS.

THIS MORNING...A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD...AND
LIKELY WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS...WHERE IT WILL
STOP THIS AFTERNOON. THEN...DEVELOPING NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IN
OKLAHOMA WILL RESULT IN THE WARM FRONT WEAKENING...THEN DROPPING
BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT. VIRTUALLY EVERYTHING POSSIBLE
HAS OCCURRED IN THE NORTH TEXAS/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AREA OVER THE PAST
WEEK OR SO. THUS...WE ARE NOT SURPRISED AT THE RATHER STRANGE
SURFACE WEATHER THAT WE DESCRIBE.

ONCE AGAIN WE HAVE GONE COOLER THAN GFS MOS TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE USUALLY RELIABLE GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE SOME REAL
PROBLEMS KEEPING UP WITH THE RAPID LOW LEVEL CHANGES.

[gboudx]

It's a muggy 70 on the east side of Dallas.

[CaptinCrunch]

Current temp here at work (I-30/I-35 interchange) in Fort Worth is 58 with a light north wind and a foggy mist

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
903 AM CST TUE DEC 11 2007

.UPDATE...
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO ALREADY BE SLOSHING BACK SOUTHEAST AS A COLD
FRONT...WITH STATIONS IN THE NW EXHIBITING A NORTHWEST WIND AND
TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 30S. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE TRICKY...
WITH LOCATIONS BEHIND THE FRONT LIKELY ALREADY EXPERIENCING THERE
HIGHS FOR THE DAY...WHILE SITES IN THE SE WILL REACH THE MID 70S
BEFORE THE FRONT REACHES THEM. THE METROPLEX WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN WITH HIGHS BETWEEN 55 AND 70 DEGREES.

HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE AREA OF RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WRF AND RUC MODELS SHOW
A GOOD COVERAGE OF RAIN IN THE NW LATER THIS MORNING SPREADING TO
THE REST OF THE CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON.

[jasons2k]

Looking at the models I'm getting a little nervous about a possible freeze on Sunday Morning. It's still too early to pin anything down this far away as things can change drastically...hopefully "up".

The high is almost on top of us on the GFS:



Side note: that's one heck-uv-a snowstorm in the NE US

[vbhoutex]

Part of Jeff's latest email

Weekend:

Coastal low will move E of the area Saturday AM with skies clearing and cold high pressure building into the region from the NW. May be looking at some freezing temps. all areas Sun AM and Mon AM with high pressure overhead, clear skies, and light winds. Temps. will run below average on both highs and lows.

Looks like the model backs that up.

[Johnny]

It looks like it is going to be good deer hunting weather for me this weekend. Anyone here like venison?

[jasons2k]

Here is a tidbit from this afternoon's AFD from HGX. At least they are not indicating anything major at this point...hopefully this will just be a very minor blip in the winter season:

MINS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWFA IF GFS IS CORRECT.

Edited: Here's the latest forecast for my location. We'll see...

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 33.

[CajunMama]

It looks like it is going to be good deer hunting weather for me this weekend. Anyone here like venison?

*raises hand* Some backstrap please!

[CaptinCrunch]

Current Temp is 49 with light NE winds at 5mph, light rain and patchy fog.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
334 PM CST TUE DEC 11 2007

.DISCUSSION...
FIRST ROUND OF TRUE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW MAKING THEIR WAY
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. COLD FRONT HAS AGAIN BEGUN TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SAGS SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEVADA BEGINS TO TRANSLATE EAST. BULK OF
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
SOUTHEAST. MUCAPE IS HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF NORTH
TEXAS WHERE VALUES APPROACH 1400 J/KG. ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SUPERCELLULAR IN
THE HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A LULL IN THE
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT IN THE WEST BEFORE THINGS GET STARTED AGAIN
TOMORROW MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING NEARS. AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO WANE FROM WEST TO EAST.

COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 30S AND
40S TOMORROW. THURSDAY WILL SERVE AS A BRIEF RESPITE BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE MEXICAN PLATEAU. THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW A
PACIFIC RIDGE DEVELOPING LATE NEXT WEEK ALONG THE CALIFORNIA
COAST WHICH WILL HELP CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS THIS SYSTEM COMES ACROSS...RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN
THE FORECAST AREAWIDE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODEL SOUNDING INDICATE
THE NORTHERN TWO-TIERS OF COUNTIES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE
COLD AIR DOES NOT PROGRESS FARTHER SOUTH UNTIL THE PRECIPITATION
SHUTS OFF...AND FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
LIQUID IN THE METROPLEX.