OLGA'S remnants : Discussions & Images

[wyq614]

现在看来“奥尔加”会绕过伊斯帕尼奥拉岛的多山地带，这样可以减缓她的减弱，对吗？

Now it seems that Olga will miss the mountainous zone of the Isla Hispaniola, so that its weakening process will slow down. ¿verdad?

[wxman57]

现在看来“奥尔加”会绕过伊斯帕尼奥拉岛的多山地带，这样可以减缓她的减弱，对吗？

Now it seems that Olga will miss the mountainous zone of the Isla Hispaniola, so that its weakening process will slow down. ¿verdad?

A storm with no core won't weaken as much as it interacts with land. This is not a tropical system, and it has no core to fall apart. Therefore the low will spin down more slowly. However, it's still moving into strong westerly wind shear, so look for convection to gradually become more detached from the center over the next 24 hours.

But a check of the latest visible loop indicates a current movement north of west, or right toward the eastern tip of the DR.

[Evil Jeremy]

现在看来“奥尔加”会绕过伊斯帕尼奥拉岛的多山地带，这样可以减缓她的减弱，对吗？

Now it seems that Olga will miss the mountainous zone of the Isla Hispaniola, so that its weakening process will slow down. ¿verdad?

A storm with no core won't weaken as much as it interacts with land. This is not a tropical system, and it has no core to fall apart. Therefore the low will spin down more slowly. However, it's still moving into strong westerly wind shear, so look for convection to gradually become more detached from the center over the next 24 hours.

But a check of the latest visible loop indicates a current movement north of west, or right toward the eastern tip of the DR.

I caught that. Do you think it is just a wobble or something more?

[wyq614]

呵呵，对于中国风迷来说，“副热带气旋“的确是个新名词。我们对它了解太少。。中国已经是午夜，我睡了，大家晚安

hoho, for the Chinese typhoon trackers. "Subtropical Storm/cyclone" is indeed a new term. We know little about it.

In China it has been midnight, I've got to sleep, "good night" for everyone.

[Evil Jeremy]

Thanks for bringing us info from the other side of the world!

[wxman57]

现在看来“奥尔加”会绕过伊斯帕尼奥拉岛的多山地带，这样可以减缓她的减弱，对吗？

Now it seems that Olga will miss the mountainous zone of the Isla Hispaniola, so that its weakening process will slow down. ¿verdad?

A storm with no core won't weaken as much as it interacts with land. This is not a tropical system, and it has no core to fall apart. Therefore the low will spin down more slowly. However, it's still moving into strong westerly wind shear, so look for convection to gradually become more detached from the center over the next 24 hours.

But a check of the latest visible loop indicates a current movement north of west, or right toward the eastern tip of the DR.

I caught that. Do you think it is just a wobble or something more?

I thought you might. I'm actually glad to see the jog north of west as it means the center will track right over the DR, most likely. Just a wobble that will shorten Olga's life.

[Evil Jeremy]

One model that so far has seemed to be the best with Olga so far is amazingly the BAMD. It was one of the few models that showed the slight northward jump last night, and it is the only model that is suggesting a slight WNW movement which is now beginning.

[Blown Away]

One model that so far has seemed to be the best with Olga so far is amazingly the BAMD. It was one of the few models that showed the slight northward jump last night, and it is the only model that is suggesting a slight WNW movement which is now beginning.

If Olga goes WNW that will be the end of her soon. I have not seen a model that brings Olga N of DR, most go rate through or just S.

[JonathanBelles]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 111753
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172007
200 PM AST TUE DEC 11 2007

...CENTER OF OLGA MAKING LANDFALL IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...

AT 2 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND FOR THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
OF HISPANIOLA FROM CABO ENGANO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO LE MOLE
ST. NICHOLAS HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO PUNTA PALENQUE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.4 WEST OR ALONG THE
COAST AT THE EASTERNMOST TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR PUNTA
CANA. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 85 MILES...135 KM...EAST OF
SANTO DOMINGO.

OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS OLGA HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH...15 KM/HR...BUT A RETURN TO A WESTWARD TRACK
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF OLGA IS EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR OR OVER THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

OLGA'S STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION...WHICH IS A CHARACTERISTIC OF SUBTROPICAL CYCLONES.
WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

OLGA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS HAVE ALREADY
PRODUCED LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES IN PUERTO
RICO.

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...18.5 N...68.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Storm in December Wow.
Looks like olga might chug westward. Shear should
keep it from having serious intensification.

Congratulations to Joe Bastardi to calling this some time ago
about a Caribbean system.

[HURAKAN]

447
WHXX01 KWBC 111819
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1819 UTC TUE DEC 11 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE OLGA (AL172007) 20071211 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071211 1800 071212 0600 071212 1800 071213 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.5N 68.4W 18.7N 72.0W 19.3N 76.0W 19.5N 79.4W
BAMD 18.5N 68.4W 19.0N 69.9W 19.7N 71.5W 20.2N 73.1W
BAMM 18.5N 68.4W 18.7N 71.2W 19.1N 74.0W 19.5N 76.6W
LBAR 18.5N 68.4W 18.7N 70.2W 18.9N 72.2W 19.3N 74.2W
SHIP 40KTS 37KTS 30KTS 24KTS
DSHP 40KTS 34KTS 32KTS 26KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071213 1800 071214 1800 071215 1800 071216 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.8N 82.5W 20.2N 86.5W 22.8N 88.1W 25.7N 80.1W
BAMD 20.4N 74.8W 20.2N 77.5W 20.1N 79.5W 23.4N 76.5W
BAMM 19.9N 78.9W 20.9N 82.4W 23.5N 83.6W 31.6N 70.8W
LBAR 19.7N 76.4W 20.2N 79.8W 20.3N 81.8W 20.3N 80.9W
SHIP 18KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 20KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.5N LONCUR = 68.4W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 18.5N LONM12 = 66.3W DIRM12 = 268DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 18.3N LONM24 = 63.2W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 125NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 210NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 120NM

$$
NNNN

[gatorcane]

seems to be more of a WNW to even NW movement over the past 3-4 hours.....

Does anybody see what I am seeing?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Today seems like august temperature wise here and tropics wise

[Squarethecircle]

seems to be more of a WNW to even NW movement over the past 3-4 hours.....

Does anybody see what I am seeing?

Yes...

[gatorcane]

seems to be more of a WNW to even NW movement over the past 3-4 hours.....

Does anybody see what I am seeing?

Yes...

in fact it only needs to jog a little more NW and it will be back over open water...with temps around 80F-82F

[Squarethecircle]

It's hard to discern, but it might even be a little off the coastline. What model predicted this? BAMD?

[gatorcane]

its skimming the coast right now but has definitely made a turn to the WNW...ther is a very slight weakness to the north that is passing by....that is probably what the BAMD predicted...lets see if it starts to move more West as the day goes on...

You can see the weakness here:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

[Squarethecircle]

Also, the convection seems much nicer around the center now. The intensity forecast could change drastically if the storm continues this track.

[wxman57]

Recon appears to be on the way there for some reason. It left Biloxi at 18Z. I just got observation 10.

URNT11 KNHC 111909
97779 19000 30243 76900 70200 99005 72//1 /5759
RMK AF303 0117A OLGA OB 09
SWS = 020KTS

URNT11 KBIX 111848
97779 18400 30251 78600 70200 14014 72//2 /5758
RMK AF303 0117A OLGA OB 08
SWS = 014KTS

URNT11 KBIX 111821
97779 18200 30259 80300 70100 16011 71/// /5760
RMK AF303 0117A OLGA OB 07

URNT11 KBIX 111812
97779 18000 30266 82000 70200 10022 70//2 /5760
RMK AF303 0117A OLGA OB 06

URNT11 KBIX 111804
97779 17400 30273 83800 70100 10011 70//1 /5761
RMK AF303 0117A OLGA OB 04
SWS = 005KTS

URNT11 KBIX 111723
97779 17200 30280 85600 70100 17014 69//1 /5761
RMK AF303 0117A OLGA OB 03
SWS = 015KTS

URNT11 KBIX 111702
97779 17010 30285 87400 70100 21019 70//1 /5761
RMK AF303 0117A OLGA OB 02
SWS = 008KTS

URNT11 KBIX 111642
97779 16380 30293 89200 70100 21022 69//1 /5759
RMK AF303 0117A OLGA OB 01

[gatorcane]

By the way in the other thread Wxman has confirmed Recon is on the way for some reason...

what does this mean? Is it because it is moving WNW now into lower shear????