OLGA'S remnants : Discussions & Images

[Evil Jeremy]

Do we really think this abnormally strong ridging (that you would typically see in July-August) is going to last 7 days???

I just find it hard to believe we are in mid December and it will track W to WSW for the forecast period....

What abnormally strong ridging? It looks like it is weakening a little bit to me!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[cycloneye]

[tolakram]

MIMIC

[Coredesat]

So this won't affect the season's ACE? It's kind of weird to have 15 named storms while the ACE is so low.

Nope, subtropical storms don't contribute to ACE, which by definition counts only tropical cyclones of storm strength or higher.

Gale strength. Storm = 48 kts. Of course, you meant 'tropical storm' strength.

Yes, that's what I meant by "storm strength" seeing as we're not talking about an extratropical system.

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 DEC 2007 Time : 024500 UTC
Lat : 18:29:36 N Lon : 65:14:25 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 /1005.0mb/ 35.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -21.2C Cloud Region Temp : -22.0C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.33 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.36 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 19:17:24 N Lon: 65:02:24 W

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[wxman57]

Do we really think this abnormally strong ridging (that you would typically see in July-August) is going to last 7 days???

I just find it hard to believe we are in mid December and it will track W to WSW for the forecast period....

Mean flow 700-400mb is from the NE-ENE and forecast to remain that way. Olga won't last 7 days, probably not another 36 hours. All that will be left in a few days is scattered thunderstorms. Should be a fairly strong front pushing across the Gulf over the weekend, too.

Stupid Olga. Now I have to work all night tonight after starting work at 5am today. And I'm on the day shift tomorrow, too. Only a 1-man hurricane team in the off-season.

[Coredesat]

Do we really think this abnormally strong ridging (that you would typically see in July-August) is going to last 7 days???

I just find it hard to believe we are in mid December and it will track W to WSW for the forecast period....

Weak systems don't respond as strongly to changes in the synoptic pattern. Besides, Olga likely will not survive long enough for the ridge (which isn't abnormally strong) to break down.

[Evil Jeremy]

Do we really think this abnormally strong ridging (that you would typically see in July-August) is going to last 7 days???

I just find it hard to believe we are in mid December and it will track W to WSW for the forecast period....

Mean flow 700-400mb is from the NE-ENE and forecast to remain that way. Olga won't last 7 days, probably not another 36 hours. All that will be left in a few days is scattered thunderstorms. Should be a fairly strong front pushing across the Gulf over the weekend, too.

Stupid Olga. Now I have to work all night tonight after starting work at 5am today. And I'm on the day shift tomorrow, too. Only a 1-man hurricane team in the off-season.

If we have learned anything over the past few 4 seasons, it is to expect the unexpected. A Caribbean storm in December that looks like a storm from August is strange enough, so don't expect the shear to really get rid of this thing. Anything can happen.

[boca]

An obersvation I noticed on satellite is that the cirrus clouds are fanning out further north rather than being squashed to the south which implies that the high might not be as strong as forecasts.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[Derek Ortt]

Jeremy

This has to cross some 10K foot mountains as well.

the chances of this surviving more than 4 hours are less than 10 percent. Only reason why I included forecasts points beyond are just in case, but I'd be SHOCKED if they actually verify

[Evil Jeremy]

Derek, while I agree with both you and wxman, I am just saying that if we get a storm looking like this in the Caribbean in December, than anything can happen pretty much.

Also, the WSW movement is really starting to kick in.

[dwsqos2]

Observation from Buoy 41043*:

B 0350 20.99 -65.01 150 6 90 36.9 48.6 19.0 11 7.6 - 29.89 -0.02 76.8 80.4 69.6

Note the supplementary observations.

*Link is time-sensitive.

[JonathanBelles]

viewtopic.php?p=1672883#p1672883

Abbreviated forecast because of the lack of surety if the internet would continue to work.

[gatorcane]

I agree boca, latest IR loop shows alot of convection blow up way NE of the actual center and the blob as a whole appears to be moving off to the WNW. But the WNW side of the blob seems to be getting squashed...could it be some intense shear WNW of the system?

[Evil Jeremy]

The ridge to the north looks a little bit weaker than earlier. Also, where is this shear supposed to be coming from?

[Coredesat]

Surface ridge in the SW Caribbean and an upper-level trough.

[gatorcane]

The ridge to the north looks a little bit weaker than earlier. Also, where is this shear supposed to be coming from?

Indeed and I also think the center is trying to relocate about 75 miles north of where the NHC has it..you can see a persistent blob moving W with WNW wobbles. Then there is alot of deep convection/energy way NE of the current center...we may have some center reformations over the next 24 hours.

[boca]

The center is moving right along the north coast of PR.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[HURAKAN]

The center is moving right along the north coast of PR.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Looks very tropical to me.

[cpdaman]

well i have heard people mention before that the center always follows the convection so possibly a re-location

but i have heard people also say it is headed WSW , perhaps it will shoot the gap between puerto rico and hispanola and maintain strength?

if we had a weather futures market and i could put down 50$ to win 500$ that this thing will not be gone tommorrow or if so, regenerate by thursday i would place the bet.

it's only "Fitey bucks"

also we had some tropical like showers in boca last hour