OLGA'S remnants : Discussions & Images

[dixiebreeze]

Not understanding why the STS classification. Hopefully the NHC will write a detailed summary.

Actually, it's hard to understand why the NHC cuts off tropical info (TWO, etc.) right on Nov. 29. It IS the NHC and the jobs go on year 'round -- I would hope.

[Ladybbird]

When is it due to hit us in the Dominican Republic? I live beachfront of the North of the island

We will see when the advisory comes out. Are you prone to mudslides and flooding where you are?

Yes, we havent recovered from Noel and now this, Im concerned about the waves, Im right in front of them I dont know whether to leave or not

[boca]

Again we can't buy a drop of rain here in Florida from Olga because of this wacky high pressure.

[HurricaneRobert]

So this won't affect the season's ACE? It's kind of weird to have 15 named storms while the ACE is so low.

[cpdaman]

i give JB credit not masters a 20% prediction in this context is a win-win prediction

and boca we had a couple sprinkles at least last hour

[Evil Jeremy]

Again we can't buy a drop of rain here in Florida from Olga because of this wacky high pressure.

Well, if Olga survives for about 5-7 days, an approaching cold front would pick it up and give us come rain. Of course, there is like a 3% chance of that even happening.

[Evil Jeremy]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 110255
TCDAT2
SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172007
1100 PM EDT MON DEC 10 2007

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM THE SAN JUAN WSR-88D INDICATE
THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO HAS ACQUIRED A WELL-DEFINED...THOUGH BROAD...SURFACE
CIRCULATION AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION NOT FAR FROM THE CENTER. DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...IT IS BEING DESIGNATED A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. NOAA BUOY
41043 NORTH OF THE CENTER HAS TWICE REPORTED 1-MIN AVERAGE WINDS OF
33 KT AT AN ELEVATION OF 5 METERS...WHICH SUGGESTS TROPICAL-STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING AT THE STANDARD SURFACE ELEVATION OF 10
METERS. BASED ON ALL THIS...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO SUBTROPICAL
STORM OLGA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
SUBTROPICAL INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35-40 KT FROM TAFB.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/13. OLGA IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
A STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...FLORIDA...
AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS RIDGE SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND STEER OLGA ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND
IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE SUITE OF DYNAMICAL MODELS.

OLGA CURRENTLY HAS GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE...
WITH OUTFLOW AND CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE
SUPPRESSED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. IN THE SHORT-TERM...THIS
PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING...AND THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR MODEST INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON TUESDAY. AFTER THAT...THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS FORECAST STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THAT...COMBINED WITH THE LIKELY
DISRUPTION OF THE CIRCULATION BY PASSAGE OVER HISPANIOLA...SHOULD
CAUSE WEAKENING. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST OLGA TO WEAKEN TO
AN INVERTED TROUGH BY 36-48 HR... WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS
DISSIPATION IN 60 HR. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS
FOR OLGA TO SURVIVE FOR 48 HR BEFORE DISSIPATING.

AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE WFO SAN JUAN...IT WAS DECIDED THAT
WATCHES AND WARNINGS WERE NOT NEEDED FOR PUERTO RICO SINCE THE
TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OVER WATER WELL TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0300Z 18.5N 65.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 18.5N 67.6W 40 KT
24HR VT 12/0000Z 18.4N 70.6W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 12/1200Z 18.0N 73.8W 25 KT...OVER WATER
48HR VT 13/0000Z 17.8N 76.9W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[gatorcane]

Boca I say we watch it until it has completely fizzled. Any system projected to lurk south of Cuba moving west this time of year needs to be watched..

If shear ends up being lighter than expected we could get some rain from this with the approaching trough in 7 days.

[Blown Away]

On satellite the LLC looks N of 19N. No TS warnings for S coast of DR, that's where the NHC has Olga going?

[MiamiensisWx]

"On satellite the LLC looks N of 19N. No TS warnings for S coast of DR, that's where the NHC has Olga going?"

AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE WFO SAN JUAN...IT WAS DECIDED THAT
WATCHES AND WARNINGS WERE NOT NEEDED FOR PUERTO RICO SINCE THE
TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OVER WATER WELL TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER.

[Brent]

Again we can't buy a drop of rain here in Florida from Olga because of this wacky high pressure.

Yeah join the club... 80 degrees today on top of that(almost broke the all-time December record). Merry Christmas!

[Coredesat]

So this won't affect the season's ACE? It's kind of weird to have 15 named storms while the ACE is so low.

Nope, subtropical storms don't contribute to ACE, which by definition counts only tropical cyclones of storm strength or higher.

[Evil Jeremy]

Honestly, I don't see anything here that should push Olga WSW any time soon. If anything, the air around the storm is becoming more moist, the ridge is weakening a little, and a front is slowly on its way into the Gulf.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

[Coredesat]

Forgive me if this isn't the correct venue for these.

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-------------

Subtropical Storm OLGA (17L)

TIME: 0300 UTC 11 December 2007
FCST: 01

PSTN: 18.7°N 65.0°W POOR (XTRAP 0145Z GOES-10 IR2/IR4 loop)
WIND: 35 kt
PRES: 1006 hPa
MOVE: W 13 kt

Tropical disturbance NE of US Virgin Islands has strengthened into a subtropical storm, Olga (17L). The system has increased in organization since the previous tropical disturbance advisory, with more intense convection developing near (but still 0.5 degree from) a developing low-level circulation center obscured by a stronger circulation at the upper levels. Poleward outflow from the system is excellent and is allowing it to survive in a marginal environment. However, strong subsidence from dry air and stronger wind shear has made the southern semicircle of the system nonexistent; most of the convection is to the north and west of the center. Dvorak fixes of T2.0/2.0 from SAB and T2.5/2.5 from TAFB, and 10-minute average winds of 30 kt from nearby buoy 41043 mean the initial intensity is set at 35 kt.

Not all global models pick up this system; the ones that do take it nearly due west or west-southwest with little intensification. No intensification is forecast before the system moves over Hispaniola in about 12 to 18 hours; rapid weakening is expected after that due to land interaction and a substantial increase in wind shear. The forecast track is along the lines of the consensus of ECMWF/UKMO/GFS/NOGAPS/GFDL models.

12HR FCST: 18.6°N 67.4°W
WIND/PRES: 35 kt/1007 hPa

24HR FCST: 18.3°N 69.8°W
WIND/PRES: 30 kt/1009 hPa
Dissipating as a significant subtropical cyclone over water

36HR FCST: 17.7°N 72.1°W
WIND/PRES: 20 kt/1012 hPa
Dissipating as a significant subtropical cyclone over water

48HR FCST: 17.1°N 74.2°W
WIND/PRES: DISSIPATED
Dissipated as a significant subtropical cyclone over water

Next update: N/A
Next forecast: 1500 UTC 11 December 2007

Weaver

[HURAKAN]

It looks very nice.

[cycloneye]

[Chacor]

So this won't affect the season's ACE? It's kind of weird to have 15 named storms while the ACE is so low.

Nope, subtropical storms don't contribute to ACE, which by definition counts only tropical cyclones of storm strength or higher.

Gale strength. Storm = 48 kts. Of course, you meant 'tropical storm' strength.

[Kennethb]

While the chances of Olga coming to Louisiana is very low, Today, Monday, was the second day in a row that we had afternoon showers develop. Tied a record high of 82 here in Baton Rouge.

[boca]

Funny thing is that last year with El Nino we had no rain and La Nina no rain ,can't win. Come on Olga make the WNW turn.

[gatorcane]

Do we really think this abnormally strong ridging (that you would typically see in July-August) is going to last 7 days???

I just find it hard to believe we are in mid December and it will track W to WSW for the forecast period....