South China Sea: Tropical Storm Hagibis

[Squarethecircle]

Up on the NRL, and...

WTPN21 PGTW 181700
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.1N 128.3E TO 9.7N 120.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 181600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.4N 128.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED NEAR
8.4N 128.0E, APPROXIMATELY 95 NM EAST OF MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT. AN 181124Z TRMM
IMAGE INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING DISTURBANCE WITH WEAK
CONVECTIVE BANDING. AN 180931Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-
DEFINED LLCC WITH 20-25 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER.
SYNOPTIC SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MINDANAO
SHOW SLP NEAR 1005 AND A SHIP REPORT, JSVY LOCATED ABOUT 65NM
NORTH OF THE CENTER, INDICATES SLP NEAR 1004MB AND EASTERLY
WINDS AT 18 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A
DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTER WITH WEAK VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. UW-CIMMS PRODUCTS INDICATE DECREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OVER THE LLCC DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.
DUE TO A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LLCC AND IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR
CANCELLED BY 191700Z.//
NNNN

TCFA from JTWC

[cycloneye]

Model runs here.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

12z EURO

The EURO has it making landfall in Vietnam.

[P.K.]

WWJP25 RJTD 181800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 181800.
WARNING VALID 191800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 988 HPA
AT 51N 154E SEA OF OKHOTSK MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 30 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 51N 154E TO 49N 155E 48N 156E.
WARM FRONT FROM 48N 156E TO 46N 159E 43N 161E.
COLD FRONT FROM 48N 156E TO 41N 155E 37N 150E 34N 145E.
WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND
500 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 54N 163E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 100
MILES RADIUS.
ANOTHER LOW 992 HPA AT 47N 146E
MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 980 HPA
AT 58N 149E SEA OF OKHOTSK MOVING NORTH 20 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
WATERS BOUNDED BY 30N 125E 31N 130E 33N 136E 28N 136E 27N 130E 18N
120E 16N 113E 22N 113E 23N 116E 27N 120E 30N 125E.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 48N
175E 48N 180E 36N 180E 36N 175E 48N 175E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1016 HPA AT 46N 116E ESE 35 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 08N 128E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1032 HPA AT 34N 121E SE 25 KT.
HIGH 1024 HPA AT 47N 173E SE 20 KT.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[Squarethecircle]

JMA, check, JTWC, check, NRL, check; and it seems like this storm is ready to go.

[cycloneye]

SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W WARNING NR 001
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/181651Z NOV 07//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN31 PGTW 182100
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 9.2N 127.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.2N 127.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 9.9N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 10.4N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 10.7N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 11.0N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 11.6N 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 9.4N 126.8E.

THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 181651Z
NOV 07 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 181700 )
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.
//
BT











The next name will be Hagibis? Looking very good.

[HurricaneRobert]

I see a bunch of black images.

[Coredesat]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 23W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM EAST OF
NORTHERN MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
SYSTEM WITH A LARGE SYMMETRIC CDO FEATURE OF 240 NM DIAMETER AND
DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. AN 181718Z
AMSU IMAGE DEPICTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE NORTH
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRC-
ULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 (PGTW) TO 45 KNOTS (KNES) AND
IS BASED PRIMARILY ON RECENT QUIKSCAT, ASCAT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
WHICH INDICATE SLP NEAR 1002 MB AND WINDS 25-30 KNOTS. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON A TIGHT CLUSTER OF FIXES AND RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY. TD 23W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS FROM A HIGH
NEAR HAINAN ISLAND EASTWARD INTO THE LUZON STRAIGHT. AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS ARE SPARSE BUT ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ENHANCED BY A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN CHINA. EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW HAS ALSO IMPROVED. THE ENVIRONMENT HAS IMPROVED AND IS
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. BOTH SST AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
VALUES ARE HIGH WITH A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT AS EVIDENT ON THE
LATEST TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM NRL. HOWEVER, TD 23W
IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS PER DAY DUE MAINLY
TO LAND INTERACTION AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SYSTEM MAY INTENSIFY MORE RAPIDLY SINCE
IT SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE INLAND SEAS WHICH HISTORICALLY CAN
PRODUCE RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 181651Z NOV 07 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 181700). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z,
191500Z AND 192100Z.//

[cycloneye]

18/2030 UTC 9.1N 127.0E T3.0/3.0 92W -- West Pacific Ocean

[Squarethecircle]

And you see, this is an example of how the West Pacific is so much more active than the Atlantic; it's an off year, yet this is something the Atlantic, at least right now, could never produce.

[HURAKAN]

[Squarethecircle]

Wow, ouch.

[HURAKAN]

That the sort of thing you need if you're in a drought!!!

[Squarethecircle]

Dang, yeah, low winds and a hell of a lot of rain. Luckily the drought is fairly over up here in Virginia, as we've had quite a few inches of rain in the last few weeks. Moving on, then. The environment looks fairly favorable, actually, for something quite strong to develop, although probably not beyond category 1, max.

[HURAKAN]

[Squarethecircle]

Interesting how that doesn't seem to be the center of circulation on convective (not just the fact that the clouds are further to the west, but that the center seems to be be in the middle of it).

[cycloneye]

Anyone has other model runs apart from the EURO? I am looking for links to models for the WPAC but I cant find them.

[CrazyC83]

Should be Mitag soon.

[Coredesat]

I have a site that does model runs, but only for named systems above storm strength.