SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[Yankeegirl]

Well maybe later on tonight it might get interesting... prolly after midnight... ?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well maybe later on tonight it might get interesting... prolly after midnight... ?

Looks like things could get going around here within the next 2 hours or so as new storm cells are now beginning to fire SSW of the city..

http://www.weatherunderground.com/radar ... rainsnow=0

..The best rain chances will probably hold off until the overnight hours though (especially for areas east of metro Houston).

[srainhoutx]

Moving in fairly quick Extreme. Seeing lightning of to the W of my location now.

[Yankeegirl]

I havent gone outside lately, but on the radar i can see its almost here, to my south.... Fun!

[Yankeegirl]

Ok, i typed too soon, its thundering and lightning out here now.. I can see the lightning through the blinds... too bad its moving really quick... hope there is more behind it!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

yeah, this came in pretty fast...much faster then even I expected. Currently it is raining pretty good with occasional bolts of lightning and claps of thunder here is SW Spring.

**edited to correct a spelling error**

[vbhoutex]

Unfortunately for us in the metro area the heaviest of these storms and showers are going to miss us to the West. I was hoping for an all night soaking event. Oh well.

[Ptarmigan]

Unfortunately for us in the metro area the heaviest of these storms and showers are going to miss us to the West. I was hoping for an all night soaking event. Oh well.

Well, it could rain overnight. More like an off and on event.

[Johnny]

11:09 pm....the radar is filling in nicely. It looks like this one will push on into the overnight hours. Good sleeping weather.

[Ed Mahmoud]

We need the rain.

[Extremeweatherguy]

pretty intense storm out there. Lots of loud thunder, gusty winds and very heavy rains.

[vbhoutex]

Unfortunately for us in the metro area the heaviest of these storms and showers are going to miss us to the West. I was hoping for an all night soaking event. Oh well.

Well, so much for my prognostication skills!!! We've had over 3" of rain overnight here at the house. My son up in Cypress got pounded last night but I can't bring up NWS radar to find out how much they got-he doesn't have a rain gauge. Like EWG lots of lightning and thunder too. Nothing severe, but some MUCH needed rain.

[Yankeegirl]

I dont know how much we got last night, it was so nice to sleep through it all!!! now i want to the cold Thanksgiving weather!!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Our latest chilly forecast looks like this...

Wednesday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49.

Thanksgiving Day: A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 55.

Thursday Night: A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42.

Friday: A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 56.

Friday Night: A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41.

Saturday: A 40 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 54.

Saturday Night: A 40 percent chance of rain and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 42.

Sunday: A chance of rain and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a high near 55.

[vbhoutex]

This is the latest from Jeff. Looks like mid to late next week could get very interesting in Texas, weatherwise.

Excessive rainfall over much of the area last night with widespread amounts of 3-5 inches along a line from Columbus to NW Harris County with isolated amounts upwards of 8 inches over portions of Colorado and Austin counties. Such rainfall has put the San Bernard River into flood. Storm system responsible for the overnight rains has moved eastward with low level outflow boundary progressing S and SW into deep S TX and off the upper TX coast.



SW flow aloft will bring another short wave across the area by Tuesday and low level boundary should back toward the coast with return of high dewpoint air mass. Air mass will be unstable by the late afternoon and another round and showers and thunderstorms will be possible.



Strong polar front still on tap for Wednesday with a cold end to the week. Long wave trough will unleash polar air mass southward down the Rockies front range early this week with the shallow cold dense air mass moving across TX on Wednesday. Frontal passage will be during he evening hours Wed with afternoon heating producing good instability over the area with CAPES upwards of 1000-2000 J/Kg and falling LI’s. End result could be a line of strong to severe convection along the polar boundary and then strong onset of cold air advection following the front.



Shallow cold dome will firmly entrench by early Thanksgiving with temps. running 25-30 degrees colder than Wed. Expect clouds and some light rain to linger in the morning and this will prevent much warming. Highs only in the 40’s and 50’s seem possible for Thanksgiving Day. Strong upper storm system drops into the SW US by Friday will good overrunning/isentropic upglide pattern developing over TX. Coastal low develops over the Gulf with strong upglide over the state. Low level air mass cools even more as secondary surge of dry air arrives and air mass saturates from top down allowing evaporative cooling.



Am somewhat concerned for the potential for P-type issues across the state next weekend as Gulf coastal low wraps up and slings good moisture NNW over the top of the cold dome at the surface. GFS brings 32 degree surface temps. deep into TX with lots of moisture to work with. Pattern would tend to favor freezing rain and ice instead of sleet/snow however deeper surge of colder air may result in a mix of precip. across parts of the state next weekend. For now will keep everything liquid over SE TX…but close watch is needed on this part of the forecast and for certain for areas N and W of SE TX. Travel next weekend could be significantly impacted both on the ground and in the air.

[Ptarmigan]

This is the latest from Jeff. Looks like mid to late next week could get very interesting in Texas, weatherwise.

Excessive rainfall over much of the area last night with widespread amounts of 3-5 inches along a line from Columbus to NW Harris County with isolated amounts upwards of 8 inches over portions of Colorado and Austin counties. Such rainfall has put the San Bernard River into flood. Storm system responsible for the overnight rains has moved eastward with low level outflow boundary progressing S and SW into deep S TX and off the upper TX coast.



SW flow aloft will bring another short wave across the area by Tuesday and low level boundary should back toward the coast with return of high dewpoint air mass. Air mass will be unstable by the late afternoon and another round and showers and thunderstorms will be possible.



Strong polar front still on tap for Wednesday with a cold end to the week. Long wave trough will unleash polar air mass southward down the Rockies front range early this week with the shallow cold dense air mass moving across TX on Wednesday. Frontal passage will be during he evening hours Wed with afternoon heating producing good instability over the area with CAPES upwards of 1000-2000 J/Kg and falling LI’s. End result could be a line of strong to severe convection along the polar boundary and then strong onset of cold air advection following the front.



Shallow cold dome will firmly entrench by early Thanksgiving with temps. running 25-30 degrees colder than Wed. Expect clouds and some light rain to linger in the morning and this will prevent much warming. Highs only in the 40’s and 50’s seem possible for Thanksgiving Day. Strong upper storm system drops into the SW US by Friday will good overrunning/isentropic upglide pattern developing over TX. Coastal low develops over the Gulf with strong upglide over the state. Low level air mass cools even more as secondary surge of dry air arrives and air mass saturates from top down allowing evaporative cooling.



Am somewhat concerned for the potential for P-type issues across the state next weekend as Gulf coastal low wraps up and slings good moisture NNW over the top of the cold dome at the surface. GFS brings 32 degree surface temps. deep into TX with lots of moisture to work with. Pattern would tend to favor freezing rain and ice instead of sleet/snow however deeper surge of colder air may result in a mix of precip. across parts of the state next weekend. For now will keep everything liquid over SE TX…but close watch is needed on this part of the forecast and for certain for areas N and W of SE TX. Travel next weekend could be significantly impacted both on the ground and in the air.

Based on the forecast, he is saying we could have severe weather again before Thanksgiving. This should be interesting. I've been hearing we could get a strong Arctic blast soon.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest NWS forecast looks even colder than before...

Wednesday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48.

Thanksgiving Day: Partly sunny, with a high near 58.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 40.

Friday: A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 54.

Friday Night: A 50 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 40.

Saturday: A 50 percent chance of rain and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a high near 51.

Saturday Night: A 50 percent chance of rain and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 42.

Sunday: A 30 percent chance of rain and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 56.

Brr!

[Extremeweatherguy]

The NWS lowers high temperatures yet again...

Wednesday Night: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46. North wind between 5 and 15 mph.

Thanksgiving Day: Partly sunny, with a high near 58. North wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42.

Friday: A 30 percent chance of rain, mainly after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 53.

Friday Night: A 50 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 43.

Saturday: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 50. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday Night: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 43. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday: A 50 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 53.

Sunday Night: A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 61.

[vbhoutex]

The latest from Jeff for SE TX and the Houston area:

Warm weather will come to an abrupt end tomorrow evening as strong cold front sweeps through the area.



Wet and cold conditions expected through the weekend.



Short Term:



Mid to upper 60 degree dewpoints have returned to SE TX this morning with air mass slightly unstable. Trigger temps. in the mid to upper 70’s should support some shower and thunderstorm development by mid afternoon. Deeper moisture poised over the lower TX coast will return northward and help produce scattered showers. Fog should be less widespread tonight and Wed. AM as low level flow increases ahead of strong arctic boundary.



Wednesday:



Wed. will be the transition day from summer to winter as is so common here in TX. Strong arctic boundary will enter N TX late tonight and plow off the coast by midnight Wed. Before the front passes afternoon highs will climb into the low 80’s with good instability and an unstable air mass. Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop from N to S ahead of the boundary Wed afternoon and evening. Severe threat is isolated and confined more to the NE of the area…although I would not rule out an isolated pulse severe event. Strong cold air advection onsets after the front with sustained winds of 20-30mph and gusty into Thanksgiving Day.



May see a little clearing on Thanksgiving Day making the temp. forecast very unsure at the moment. Feel that even with some clearing…strong CAA will keep temps. in check in the 50’s. If skies do not clear temps. could fall into the 40’s during the day.



Friday into the Weekend:



Classic storm system to develop and cross TX will multiple weather impacts. Cold arctic dome will be firmly entrenched over the state with boundary about 200 miles off the coast. Upper trough will develop over the SW US inducing a SW flow aloft over NE winds at the surface. This will result in a good isentropic rainfall event for much of TX starting early Friday SW TX and covering nearly the entire state by late Friday. Coast surface low develops off of Brownsville and moves NE late Friday through late Sunday with NE winds maintaining cold air drainage into the region. Combination of thick clouds and evaporative effects of rain falling through a dry air column to start will mean cold temps. from Friday through Sunday. Will cut guidance by 5-10 degrees and TV numbers by 10 degrees and The Weather Channel numbers by at least 15 degrees for Friday through Sunday. Expect almost no diurnal range and temps. to remain nearly steady in the low to mid 40’s from Friday through Sunday. Given the gusty NNE winds, cold temps., and periods of rain and fog a nasty forecast is in store for Friday into the weekend.



Interesting part of the forecast comes Sunday night as cold trough ejects across TX and surface low wraps into LA allowing colder thickness values to drop SSW into SE TX. Rainfall should be ending from the SW to NE late Sunday…however critical thickness values may be met along and N of HWY 105 and E of I-45 before the rainfall ends to result in a change over to sleet or light snow. For now anything that falls will be light and surface temps. will be well above freezing so no accumulations are expected.



Forecast for Harris and surrounding counties:



Today: party cloudy with a 30% chance of showers. Highs near 80 S winds 10mph.



Wednesday: Partly cloudy and warm with a 40% chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the low 80’s. S winds 10-15mph.



Wednesday night: Cloudy and turning much colder with a 60% chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 40’s. S winds shifting to the north and increasing 15-25mph and gusty.



Thanksgiving Day: mostly cloudy and much colder with a 20% chance of morning light rain. Highs in the mid 50’s. N winds 15-25mph and gusty.



Friday: increasing clouds and cold with a 40% chance of light rain late. Temps. nearly steady in the upper 40’s early falling into the mid 40’s late. N winds 10-15mph.



Saturday: cloudy, cold, and wet. An 80% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Temps. nearly steady in the low to mid 40’s. NNE winds 10-20mph.



Sunday: cloudy, cold, and wet. An 80% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Temps. nearly steady in the low to mid 40’s. NNW winds 10-20mph.

[srainhoutx]

FYI, good view via of cold front via radar composite tonight...

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southpla ... e_loop.php