BoB: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm SIDR

[HurricaneRobert]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/ is awesome

[CrazyC83]

This has to be the largest thread ever for a tropical cyclone in Asia...considering I don't think there are any board members in its path...

[WindRunner]

I like how JTWC doesn't forecast 140kts out of this . . .

They also have it weakening to ~110kts for landfall . . . don't think that's quite going to happen, looks like a pretty solid core to me.

[RL3AO]

It looks like it is just a tad left of forecast...but it could be the satellite causing it to appear a little left.

[MiamiensisWx]

Currently, I think it's the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane (~140 kts). The inner core pass reveals a well-defined classical structure.

[Derek Ortt]

to put this in context of previous disasters

This likely will be far more deadly than of any of the air raids during the second World War, including the atomic attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. If this hits as we are all fearing, we likely will be seeing a result at least as bad as the 1991 cyclone and the 2004 Tsunami. Some perspective as to how bad this is... the 1970 cyclone killed more people than were killed at Sobibor during the war in its 18 months of operation. The 1991 cyclone killed a figure similar to that at Chelmno.

We all should say a prayer tonight that we do not have figures similar to those horrific places during the War

[cycloneye]

How long will it take until CNN blames it on Global Warming?

In no time. There will most likely be a special after the cyclone is over on how GW caused the disaster.

This should be the first story or headline for all news networks in a fair (in other words, non-existent) media world. Of course, there is a chance this won't even be TALKED about period until tomorrow or even after that!

Lets leave the global warming issue out of this thread.The thread has to be dedicated to post all the data,advisories,images and any comment that the members have about this very strong cyclone.For global warming comments about this cyclone,you can go to Global Weather forum. viewforum.php?f=3

[Cyclenall]

Lets leave the global warming issue out of this thread.The thread has to be dedicated to post all the data,advisories,images and any comment that the members have about this very strong cyclone.For global warming comments about this cyclone,you can go to Global Weather forum. viewforum.php?f=3

Don't accuse me of starting that. I'm not sure if your directing that at just me or everyone at once.

[P.K.]

Ok the latest advisory has the Dvorak estimate a full 2.0 below the current estimates from the other agencies. If the last ICAO advisory is anything to go by this will be listed with a sustained wind of 105kts in that now (Was 95kts when it said 90-100kts in the other advisory). The latest images have it as a T5.5 with this forecast calling for it to reach T6.0 from them which is still significantly lower than the T7.0s.

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 14-11-2007

TROPICAL STORM “SIDR” ADVISORY NO. TWENTY TWO ISSUED AT 2100 UTC OF 14 NOVEMBER, 2007.

THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “SIDR” OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY AND LAY CENTRED AT 1800 UTC OF TODAY, THE 14TH NOVEMBER 2007 OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LAT. 16.50 N AND LONG 89.00 E, ABOUT 700 KM SOUTH OF KOLKATA(42809). IT IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND CROSS WEST BENGAL-BANGLADESH COAST NEAR SAGAR ISLAND (42903) BY 16TH NOVEMBER 2007 MORNING.

ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE: 956 HPA

THE SATELLITE IMAGERIES SHOW SOLID INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. CURRENT INTENSITY: T5.0 RPT T5.0. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS 100-110 KTS AROUND THE STROM CENTRE.

SEA: PHENOMENAL.

FORECAST: THE STORM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AT ABOUT 09 KT. INTENSITY T6.0 RPT T6.0 WITH WINDS OF 115 KT GUSTING TO 130 KTS NEAR THE CENTRE OF THE STORM AT 1500 UTC OF 15TH NOVEMBER 2007.

[Squarethecircle]

Holy Jebus, man. Look at that eye! THAT is the nicest eye I have seen all year! It may be evil, but it cannot be denied that this is a beautiful storm. I think, by the way, that the IMD might be having some sort of technical difficulty. If I were WMO, I would take away their RSMC status BEFORE THE STORM EVEN MADE LANDFALL! This, my friends, has got to be the second worse possible scenario (the worst having a high tide involved).

[cycloneye]

Lets leave the global warming issue out of this thread.The thread has to be dedicated to post all the data,advisories,images and any comment that the members have about this very strong cyclone.For global warming comments about this cyclone,you can go to Global Weather forum. viewforum.php?f=3

Don't accuse me of starting that. I'm not sure if your directing that at just me or everyone at once.

To all.

[WindRunner]

Holy Jebus, man. Look at that eye! THAT is the nicest eye I have seen all year! It may be evil, but it cannot be denied that this is a beautiful storm. I think, by the way, that the IMD might be having some sort of technical difficulty. If I were WMO, I would take away their RSMC status BEFORE THE STORM EVEN MADE LANDFALL! This, my friends, has got to be the second worse possible scenario (the worst having a high tide involved).

There is no way to actually do that, even though I would tend to agree . . . the IMD allows politics to bias far too many of their meteorological decisions (i.e. 03B/Yemyin going into Pakistan and now 06B into Bangladesh).

Granted, I'm not saying we would see this as a 120/125kt (10-min) storm right now if this was heading to India, but it would probably be closer to an accurate value.

[HurricaneRobert]

JMA should take over for this basin.

[btangy]

This has to be the largest thread ever for a tropical cyclone in Asia...considering I don't think there are any board members in its path...

Considering this is a once in 20 or perhaps 50 year event, above average attention is expected. However, I suspect many of those that have closed off the Atlantic hurricane season have not recently bothered to check what's going on outside the Atlantic. I've said it before -- it's really a shame. These types of events change landscapes, lives, and human history.

[Chacor]

I'm gonna fry everyone. Do NOT accuse the IMD of playing politics when you have no BASIS for it. They have no reason for not warning on a storm for their very neighbours when it could affect themselves and this is DEFAMATION. If you want to be sued, go right ahead and continue.

As for the Western media, apparently people were blind enough not to notice that I said the BBC World Service - including its journalists from all around the world - currently have a boat in Bangladesh.

There WILL be extensive coverage of Sidr's aftermath, at least in the BBC.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/worldservice/bangladeshboat/

[Squarethecircle]

He's right you know. There are no politics involved; the IMD are just being idiots. Hopefully the BBC will survive.

[Derek Ortt]

IMD has no reason to play politics

They are just flat out incompetent. This is borne out by them saying a T 5.0 is 100-110KT. What scale are they using?

[Squarethecircle]

The retard scale?

[CrazyC83]

IMD has no reason to play politics

They are just flat out incompetent. This is borne out by them saying a T 5.0 is 100-110KT. What scale are they using?

Their own phantom scale? Or maybe they are just asleep at the switch at this extremely critical time?

According to the Dvorak scale, T5.0 = 90 kt, and that is 1-min sustained. (The real current intensity, BTW, is around T7.0)

This has NOTHING to do with politics and 100% to do with false meteorology.

[Chacor]

Can we save the IMD bashing for after the storm and focus on the storm first?!