BoB: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm SIDR

[cycloneye]

I hope I was not so boring with all that sattelite pictures

On the contrary,very good images from all the different prospectives of this potential destructive and catastrophic cyclone.

[Typhoon Hunter]

It looks evil. Still little mention of it in the press at the moment but I have a horrible feeling this will be headline news in 48 hours time!

[Chacor]

The BBC World Service has an active project in which they've hired a boat to travel Bangladesh, so they'll be on hand, first-hand, to experience this cyclone if they're not careful.

[Crostorm]

[Squarethecircle]

Sorry if anyone's offended, but Jesus Christ! At this rate it'll still be cat 3/4 by landfall...

[HURAKAN]

[P.K.]

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 14-11-2007



TROPICAL STORM “SIDR” ADVISORY NO. NINETEEN ISSUED AT 1200 UTC OF 14 NOVEMBER, 2007.



THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “SIDR” OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTHWARDS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0900 UTC OF TODAY, THE 14TH NOVEMBER 2007 OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LAT. 15.50 N AND LONG 89.50 E, ABOUT 800 KM SOUTH OF KOLKATA(42809 ). IT IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND CROSS WEST BENGAL-BANGLADESH COAST NEAR SAGAR ISLAND ( 42903 ) BY 16TH NOVEMBER 2007 MORNING.



ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE: 964 HPA

THE SATELLITE IMAGERIES SHOW SOLID INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. CURRENT INTENSITY: T5.0 RPT T5.0. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS 90-100 KTS AROUND THE STROM CENTRE.



SEA: PHENOMENAL.



FORECAST: THE STORM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AT ABOUT 09 KT. INTENSIFY T5.5 RPT T5.5 WITH WINDS OF 110 KT GUSTING TO 125 KTS NEAR THE CENTRE OF THE STORM AT 0900 UTC OF 15TH NOVEMBER 2007.

[HURAKAN]

[Squarethecircle]

We will remember this storm for years, mark my words. Is it just me or is it intensifying?

[HURAKAN]

06BSIDR.130kts-926mb

[badkhan]

I've emailed the only person i know in Bangladesh to be prepared and expect more than what the media is telling them, I've also pasted a link to this thread.

[Coredesat]

I've emailed the only person i know in Bangladesh to be prepared and expect more than what the media is telling them, I've also pasted a link to this thread.

Good idea. This is definitely not looking good. Hopefully your friend will be safe.

[Chacor]

BBC World Service boat has picked up on the cyclone. I expect that the BBC will be stepping up coverage of the storm.

[Crostorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 NOV 2007 Time : 113000 UTC
Lat : 15:42:01 N Lon : 89:17:22 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.6 / 910.8mb/129.6kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.7 6.6 7.0 7.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 10 km

Center Temp : -31.8C Cloud Region Temp : -81.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[HURAKAN]

[HurricaneRobert]

It does look like Katrina.

[wxman57]

00Z ECMWF in 1/2 millibar increments. Landfall 00Z Friday in Bangladesh.

[Typhoon Hunter]

JTWC now carrying Sidr at 130kts

Looks like Derek's comments from earlier are spot on. I just hope the authorities are evacuating everyone in low lying areas in the path of Sidr otherwise thousands are going to be killed.

[Derek Ortt]

we will be fortunate if th death toll is "only" in the thousands.

One difference between this cyclone and the 1991 cyclone, the 1991 hit east of the Ganges Delta in Chittagong. This one will likely place the delta in the RFQ

May see some weakening prior to landfall, but likely not below cat 2. 90-100KT is still a good estimate. Tidal surges could exceed 20-25 feet

[Derek Ortt]

and if anyone is reading this from eastern India of Bangladesh DO NOT LISTEN TO THE IMD!!!