Iran Nuclear Standoff

[gtalum]

the US doesn't import oil from Iran.

True, but since the oil commodity market is worldwide, it doesn't matter who we buy from. Cutting them off as a source of supply will further drive up world oil prices.

[cycloneye]

If I am not mistaken,Iran is the fourth largest oil producer in the world.Cutting that out of the oil market would mean less oil= higher prices.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

the US doesn't import oil from Iran.

Nope but taking Iran's crude off the market, even for a short time (roughly six months), would sure cause the price to go up pretty damn fast.

[JTD]

War on Iran becoming very unlikely:

‘And then what?’ A strike on Iran may be one problem too many for Bush
By Daniel Dombey, Demetri Sevastopulo and Andrew Ward

Published: November 11 2007 19:44 | Last updated: November 11 2007 19:44

In Washington and in the world at large, fears are growing that the US may mount a pre-emptive military attack on Iran.

President George W. Bush recently described the dispute over Iran’s nuclear programme in near-apocalyptic terms, warning America’s partners to prevent Tehran from obtaining the bomb if they were “interested in avoiding world war three”. Vice-president Dick Cheney declared, in an echo of his prewar rhetoric on Iraq: “We will not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon.”

In Tehran, Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, the Iranian president, declared last week that Iran was using as many as 3,000 centrifuges to enrich uranium at its centre in Natanz. If those devices were working smoothly and at full speed – according to inspections and intelligence reports, they still are not – they could produce enough fissile material for a bomb within a year.

Tensions are expected to rise further in about a week, with Mohamed ElBaradei, the head of the United Nations nuclear watchdog, likely to report that Iran has failed to resolve all the doubts about its atomic programme. Later this month, Javier Solana, European Union foreign policy chief, will tell the world’s big powers that Iran continues to defy UN demands that it rein in its programme.

Even Washington’s efforts to push through UN measures against Tehran have an echo of Iraq; five years ago, the Bush administration sought, and for a time obtained, UN action against Iraq even as it readied its own military for war.

But US officials insist that the Iran dispute is not another Iraq in the making. In a series of interviews, they are adamant that the US is not planning a preventive war against Iran and that there are no plans to send the bombers in.

“It seems to me that we don’t need more problems,” says Admiral William Fallon, head of Centcom, the US central command, that oversees operations in the Middle East. “It astounds me that so many pundits and others are spending so much time yakking about this topic.”

The administration’s rhetoric has been misunderstood, officials say; its goal is to increase the diplomatic pressure on Tehran – sometimes through bypassing the UN – to prevent the dispute from reaching crisis point. Indeed, the limits to US power four years after the Iraq war, deep misgivings within the military and a change in personnel and policy within the Bush administration all combine to make an attack less likely.

Mr Bush himself has often been depicted as willing to use force to avoid going down in history as the president on whose watch Tehran made the decisive steps towards the bomb. But administration staff paint a very different picture of the president’s priorities during his last 14 months in office.

“For those problems we can solve, let’s solve them,” a senior administration official tells the Financial Times, setting out a framework the president has given his top staff. “For those that we cannot solve, let’s leave our successors a set of policies and instruments that provide them with, in our view, the best prospect for success after we leave office.”

“If it is pre-emptive [military action] and requires going to Congress, I would say there is little chance of [the administration] getting that authority unless there is some overwhelming intelligence that they have weaponised or something like that,” said retired general Anthony Zinni, a former head of the US military’s central command. “And it would have to be overwhelming.”

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Unless Iran does something drastic I highly doubt that Bush will be able to get congressional approval of any war plan that he draws up, and the Iranians are well aware of his weakened position and are taking full advantage of it.

[HURAKAN]

Excellent. We don't need another war.

[Cryomaniac]

Excellent. We don't need another war.

The problem is I wouldn't count out Iran doing 'something drastic'

[HURAKAN]

Excellent. We don't need another war.

The problem is I wouldn't count out Iran doing 'something drastic'

Then drastic measures would have to be taken.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

True, I think everyone can agree on that.

[HURAKAN]

True, I think everyone can agree on that.

They can defy the US all they want but they know, and every country on Earth knows very well, that the US can send anyone back to the stone age in an instant. Therefore, they will be cautious on their actions. Still, for the sake of humanity, I hope we don't go to war.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I actually doubt we could send say Russia or China back to the Stone Age without a major hurt being put on us in the process. I'll agree with you on ever other country though

[gtalum]

True, I think everyone can agree on that.

They can defy the US all they want but they know, and every country on Earth knows very well, that the US can send anyone back to the stone age in an instant. Therefore, they will be cautious on their actions. Still, for the sake of humanity, I hope we don't go to war.

Of course, sending another major oil-producing nation back into the stone age would result in our very own quick trip to the past.

[cycloneye]

http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/11/14/ ... index.html

The latest intelligence about the Iran Nuclear program will not be made public.Read about it at link.I think is good to not make public the latest information that the U.S has about what Iran is up to in the nuclear front to not send signals to Iran about what the U.S. may do next.

[Cryomaniac]

http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/11/14/iran.nie/index.html

The latest intelligence about the Iran Nuclear program will not be made public.Read about it at link.I think is good to not make public the latest information that the U.S has about what Iran is up to in the nuclear front to not send signals to Iran about what the U.S. may do next.

To me thats actually implying that the US are preparing some form of military action, because if they don't want the public to know what they know, they don't want Iran to know what they know.

[HURAKAN]

And you don't think Iran may have spies in the US like any other country???

[Cryomaniac]

And you don't think Iran may have spies in the US like any other country???

Well yeah, I'm more thinking of they don't want the public of either country to know, because of the negative reaction it might cause(i.e Americans might not like it, and Iranians might try a coup, which would not do anyone any good).

[cycloneye]

IAEA Latest Report



The International Atomic Energy Agency says that Iran is generrally truthfull on the nuclear issue.Read the report at hypertext link above.The question is if Iran is really honest on their nuclear program telling the inspectors the truth or they are cheating not giving a full disclosure of their nuclear program.

[f5]

the US doesn't import oil from Iran.

Well, they could place them under an oil embargo so they can't sell it to anyone then. I can't see that happening either though.

not gonna happen why beacuse Russia&China are helping Iran with there nuclear program and for exchange Russia&China are getting cheap oil beacuse of this sleezy deal.

[cycloneye]

Chavez warns U.S. about attacking Iran



Chavez says that oil will go up to $200 a barrel if Iran or his country Venezuela is attacked.Is Chavez serious about saying Venezuela will be attacked?

[HURAKAN]

If Chavez cancels his oil exports to the US, then Venezuela will be attacked for sure.